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A pandemic is an epidemic of an infectious disease that has spread across a large region, for instance multiple continents or worldwide, affecting a substantial number of individuals. Widespread endemic diseases with a stable number of infected individuals such as recurrences of seasonal influenza are generally excluded as they occur simultaneously in large regions of the globe rather than being spread worldwide.
A zoonosis or zoonotic disease is an infectious disease of humans caused by a pathogen that can jump from a non-human to a human and vice versa.
Herd immunity is a form of indirect protection that applies only to contagious diseases. It occurs when a sufficient percentage of a population has become immune to an infection, whether through previous infections or vaccination, thereby reducing the likelihood of infection for individuals who lack immunity.
The 1918 flu pandemic, also known as the Great Influenza epidemic or by the common misnomer of the Spanish flu, was an exceptionally deadly global influenza pandemic caused by the H1N1 influenza A virus. The earliest documented case was March 1918 in Kansas, United States, with further cases recorded in France, Germany and the United Kingdom in April. Two years later, nearly a third of the global population, or an estimated 500 million people, had been infected in four successive waves. Estimates of deaths range from 17 million to 50 million, and possibly as high as 100 million, making it one of the deadliest pandemics in history.
Avian influenza, also known as avian flu, is a bird flu caused by the influenza A virus, which can infect people. It is similar to other types of animal flu in that it is caused by a virus strain that has adapted to a specific host. The type with the greatest risk is highly pathogenic avian influenza (HPAI).
In epidemiology, the basic reproduction number, or basic reproductive number, denoted , of an infection is the expected number of cases directly generated by one case in a population where all individuals are susceptible to infection. The definition assumes that no other individuals are infected or immunized. Some definitions, such as that of the Australian Department of Health, add the absence of "any deliberate intervention in disease transmission". The basic reproduction number is not necessarily the same as the effective reproduction number , which is the number of cases generated in the current state of a population, which does not have to be the uninfected state. is a dimensionless number and not a time rate, which would have units of time−1, or units of time like doubling time.
Mathematical models can project how infectious diseases progress to show the likely outcome of an epidemic and help inform public health and plant health interventions. Models use basic assumptions or collected statistics along with mathematics to find parameters for various infectious diseases and use those parameters to calculate the effects of different interventions, like mass vaccination programs. The modelling can help decide which intervention(s) to avoid and which to trial, or can predict future growth patterns, etc.
Swine influenza is an infection caused by any of several types of swine influenza viruses. Swine influenza virus (SIV) or swine-origin influenza virus (S-OIV) refers to any strain of the influenza family of viruses that is endemic in pigs. As of 2009, identified SIV strains include influenza C and the subtypes of influenza A known as H1N1, H1N2, H2N1, H3N1, H3N2, and H2N3.
Flu season is an annually recurring time period characterized by the prevalence of an outbreak of influenza (flu). The season occurs during the cold half of the year in each hemisphere. It takes approximately two days to show symptoms. Influenza activity can sometimes be predicted and even tracked geographically. While the beginning of major flu activity in each season varies by location, in any specific location these minor epidemics usually take about three weeks to reach its pinnacle, and another three weeks to significantly diminish.
An emergent virus is a virus that is either newly appeared, notably increasing in incidence/geographic range or has the potential to increase in the near future. Emergent viruses are a leading cause of emerging infectious diseases and raise public health challenges globally, given their potential to cause outbreaks of disease which can lead to epidemics and pandemics. As well as causing disease, emergent viruses can also have severe economic implications. Recent examples include the SARS-related coronaviruses, which have caused the 2002-2004 outbreak of SARS (SARS-CoV-1) and the 2019–21 pandemic of COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2). Other examples include the human immunodeficiency virus which causes HIV/AIDS; the viruses responsible for Ebola; the H5N1 influenza virus responsible for avian flu; and H1N1/09, which caused the 2009 swine flu pandemic. Viral emergence in humans is often a consequence of zoonosis, which involves a cross-species jump of a viral disease into humans from other animals. As zoonotic viruses exist in animal reservoirs, they are much more difficult to eradicate and can therefore establish persistent infections in human populations.
Economic epidemiology is a field at the intersection of epidemiology and economics. Its premise is to incorporate incentives for healthy behavior and their attendant behavioral responses into an epidemiological context to better understand how diseases are transmitted. This framework should help improve policy responses to epidemic diseases by giving policymakers and health-care providers clear tools for thinking about how certain actions can influence the spread of disease transmission.
Influenza prevention involves taking steps that one can use to decrease their chances of contracting flu viruses, such as the Pandemic H1N1/09 virus, responsible for the 2009 flu pandemic.
The Reed–Frost model is a mathematical model of epidemics put forth in the 1920s by Lowell Reed and Wade Hampton Frost, of Johns Hopkins University. While originally presented in a talk by Frost in 1928 and used in courses at Hopkins for two decades, the mathematical formulation was not published until the 1950s, when it was also made into a TV episode.
In epidemiology, the next-generation matrix is used to derive the basic reproduction number, for a compartmental model of the spread of infectious diseases. In population dynamics it is used to compute the basic reproduction number for structured population models. It is also used in multi-type branching models for analogous computations.
Ira M. Longini is an American biostatistician and infectious disease epidemiologist.
Neil Morris Ferguson is a British epidemiologist and professor of mathematical biology, who specialises in the patterns of spread of infectious disease in humans and animals. He is the director of the Jameel Institute for Disease and Emergency Analytics (J-IDEA), director of the MRC Centre for Global Infectious Disease Analysis, and head of the Department of Infectious Disease Epidemiology in the School of Public Health and Vice-Dean for Academic Development in the Faculty of Medicine, all at Imperial College London.
In 1510, an acute respiratory disease emerged in Asia before spreading through North Africa and Europe during the first chronicled, inter-regional flu pandemic generally recognized by medical historians and epidemiologists. Influenza-like illnesses had been documented in Europe since at least Charlemagne, with 1357's outbreak the first to be called influenza, but the 1510 flu pandemic is the first to be pathologically described following communication advances brought about by the printing press. Flu became more widely referred to as coqueluche and coccolucio in France and Sicily during this pandemic, variations of which became the most popular names for flu in early modern Europe. The pandemic caused significant disruption in government, church, and society with near-universal infection and a mortality rate of around 1%.
Cécile Viboud is a Staff Scientist based in the Fogarty International Center at the National Institutes of Health, where she is part of the Multinational Influenza Seasonal Mortality Study (MISMS). Viboud specialises in the mortality of infectious disease. Viboud was involved with epidemiological analysis during the COVID-19 pandemic.
Helen Y. Chu is an American immunologist who is an Assistant Professor of Medicine at the University of Washington. Her research considers maternal immunization, with a focus on influenza and respiratory syncytial virus. During the COVID-19 pandemic, Chu was the first physician to recognise community transmission of the coronavirus disease within the United States.
References
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- ↑ Sattenspiel, Lisa (1984). The spread of disease in subdivided populations (Thesis). OCLC 11617856.
- ↑ Sattenspiel, Lisa; Harpending, Henry (1983). "Stable Populations and Skeletal Age". American Antiquity. 48 (3): 489–498. doi:10.2307/280557. ISSN 0002-7316. JSTOR 280557. S2CID 161551247.
- ↑ SATTENSPIEL, LISA (1987). "Population Structure and the Spread of Disease". Human Biology. 59 (3): 411–438. ISSN 0018-7143. JSTOR 41464816. PMID 3610118.
- ↑ Sattenspiel, Lisa; Simon, Carl P. (1988-07-01). "The spread and persistence of infectious diseases in structured populations". Mathematical Biosciences. 90 (1): 341–366. doi:10.1016/0025-5564(88)90074-0. hdl: 2027.42/27249 . ISSN 0025-5564.
- ↑ Jacquez, John A.; Simon, Carl P.; Koopman, James; Sattenspiel, Lisa; Perry, Timothy (1988-12-01). "Modeling and analyzing HIV transmission: the effect of contact patterns". Mathematical Biosciences. 92 (2): 119–199. doi:10.1016/0025-5564(88)90031-4. hdl: 2027.42/27021 . ISSN 0025-5564.
- ↑ Sattenspiel, Lisa; Castillo-Chavez, Carlos (1990). "Environmental context, social interactions, and the spread of HIV". American Journal of Human Biology. 2 (4): 397–417. doi:10.1002/ajhb.1310020408. hdl: 1813/31649 . ISSN 1520-6300. PMID 28520224. S2CID 45796166.
- ↑ SATTENSPIEL, LISA; POWELL, CHRISTOPHER (1993). "Geographic Spread of Measles on the Island of Dominica, West Indies". Human Biology. 65 (1): 107–129. ISSN 0018-7143. JSTOR 41464365. PMID 8436384.
- ↑ SATTENSPIEL, LISA; HERRING, D. ANN (1998). "Structured Epidemic Models and the Spread of Influenza in the Central Canadian Subarctic". Human Biology. 70 (1): 91–115. ISSN 0018-7143. JSTOR 41465622. PMID 9489237.
- ↑ Sattenspiel, Lisa; Herring, D. Ann (2003-01-01). "Simulating the effect of quarantine on the spread of the 1918–19 flu in Central Canada". Bulletin of Mathematical Biology. 65 (1): 1–26. doi: 10.1006/bulm.2002.0317 . ISSN 1522-9602. PMID 12597114. S2CID 25567353.
- ↑ Tanner, Matthew W.; Sattenspiel, Lisa; Ntaimo, Lewis (2008-10-01). "Finding optimal vaccination strategies under parameter uncertainty using stochastic programming". Mathematical Biosciences. 215 (2): 144–151. doi:10.1016/j.mbs.2008.07.006. ISSN 0025-5564. PMID 18700149.
- ↑ Dimka, Jessica; Sattenspiel, Lisa (2021). ""We didn't get much schooling because we were fishing all the time": Potential impacts of irregular school attendance on the spread of epidemics". American Journal of Human Biology. 34 (1): e23578. doi:10.1002/ajhb.23578. ISSN 1520-6300. PMC 7995059 . PMID 33599037.
- ↑ Buckee, Caroline; Noor, Abdisalan; Sattenspiel, Lisa (2021-07-08). "Thinking clearly about social aspects of infectious disease transmission". Nature. 595 (7866): 205–213. Bibcode:2021Natur.595..205B. doi: 10.1038/s41586-021-03694-x . ISSN 0028-0836. PMID 34194045. S2CID 235697375.
- ↑ Hart, Jessica (2020-06-12). "MU researchers study parallels between Spanish Flu and COVID-19 pandemics". KRCG. Retrieved 2022-01-03.
- ↑ Ramirez, H. K.; Pirrone, S.; Orbann, C. M.; Sattenspiel, L. (2021). "The 1918 influenza pandemic and COVID-19 in Missouri: Assessing rural and urban differences in impact". American Journal of Human Biology: 2.
- ↑ "AAAS Council Elects 388 New AAAS Fellows | American Association for the Advancement of Science". www.aaas.org. November 25, 2013. Retrieved 2022-01-03.
