Lixion Avila | |
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 Avila in 2017 | |
| Born | 25 November 1950  Cuba |
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Lixion A. Avila (born November 25, 1950) is a retired weather forecaster, formerly working at the National Hurricane Center (NHC). He was a hurricane specialist and senior hurricane specialist from 1987 to 2020. [1] [2]
Avila was born and raised in Cuba. [3] He studied and received his Bachelor of Science degree in meteorology from the University of Havana in 1973, then worked for Cuba's weather service for seven years. [3] [4]
Avila was not able to study further in Cuba and with some help from his mother's family emigrated to the United States. [3] [5]
He was hired as a consultant for the National Hurricane Center in 1983, providing warning information in Spanish for the radio and television press. He obtained his MSc degree in 1987 at the University of Miami and became a forecaster at the NHC, graduating to hurricane specialist in 1989. Continuing his studies further, he obtained a PhD in 1993. Avila represented the National Hurricane Center at the World Meteorological Organization, especially for the coordination and training in the Caribbean and Central American region. [4]
Avila retired from the NHC on April 30, 2020, after working at the agency for 33 years. [6]
Avila is a Fellow of the American Meteorological Society. [7] In 2000, Avila received a NOAA Administrator's Award. [8] In 2005, the National Weather Service bestowed him the Isaac M. Cline National Award for Outreach. [4]
Avila generally forecasts with a quirky personal touch. Similar to his NHC counterpart James Franklin, Avila occasionally expresses his opinion or sense of humor, often in the discussion areas of advisories. For instance, during 2005's record-breaking Hurricane Epsilon, he expressed his frustration at the hurricane's refusal to weaken despite repeated predictions that it would do so: "There are no clear reasons...and I am not going to make one up...to explain the recent strengthening of Epsilon and I am just describing the facts." He further signed off this discussion with, "...Epsilon will likely become a remnant low. I heard that before about Epsilon... Haven't you?" [9]
While describing Hurricane Leslie, in 2018, he quipped, "It is difficult to add more to the discussion about a cyclone that has moved very little during the past few days and has not changed significantly in structure either." [10]
The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the division of the United States' NOAA/National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting tropical weather systems between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th parallel north in the northeast Pacific Ocean and the 31st parallel north in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The agency, which is co-located with the Miami branch of the National Weather Service, is situated on the campus of Florida International University in University Park, Miami, Florida.
The 2002 Atlantic hurricane season was a near-average Atlantic hurricane season. It officially started on June 1, 2002, and ended on November 30, dates which conventionally limit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones develop in the Atlantic Ocean. The season produced fourteen tropical cyclones, of which twelve developed into named storms; four became hurricanes, and two attained major hurricane status. While the season's first cyclone did not develop until July 14, activity quickly picked up: eight storms developed in the month of September. It ended early however, with no tropical storms forming after October 6—a rare occurrence caused partly by El Niño conditions. The most intense hurricane of the season was Hurricane Isidore with a minimum central pressure of 934 mbar, although Hurricane Lili attained higher winds and peaked at Category 4 whereas Isidore only reached Category 3. However, Lili had a minimum central pressure of 938 mbar.
The 2000 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly active hurricane season, but featured the latest first named storm in a hurricane season since 1992. The hurricane season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. It was slightly above average due to a La Niña weather pattern although most of the storms were weak. It was also the only season to have two of the storms affect Ireland. The first cyclone, Tropical Depression One, developed in the southern Gulf of Mexico on June 7 and dissipated after an uneventful duration. However, it would be almost two months before the first named storm, Alberto, formed near Cape Verde; Alberto also dissipated with no effects on land. Several other tropical cyclones—Tropical Depression Two, Tropical Depression Four, Chris, Ernesto, Nadine, and an unnamed subtropical storm—did not impact land. Five additional storms—Tropical Depression Nine, Florence, Isaac, Joyce, and Leslie—minimally affected land areas.
The 1999 Atlantic hurricane season was a fairly active season, mostly due to a persistent La Niña that developed in the latter half of 1998. It had five Category 4 hurricanes – the highest number recorded in a single season in the Atlantic basin, previously tied in 1933 and 1961, and later tied in 2005 and 2020. The season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Atlantic basin. The first storm, Arlene, formed on June 11 to the southeast of Bermuda. It meandered slowly for a week and caused no impact on land. Other tropical cyclones that did not affect land were Hurricane Cindy, Tropical Storm Emily, and Tropical Depression Twelve. Localized or otherwise minor damage occurred from Hurricanes Bret, Gert, and Jose, and tropical storms Harvey and Katrina.
Hurricane Michelle was the fifth costliest tropical cyclone in Cuban history and the strongest hurricane of the 2001 Atlantic hurricane season. The thirteenth named storm and seventh hurricane that year, Michelle developed from a tropical wave that had traversed into the western Caribbean Sea on October 29; the wave had initially moved off the coast of Africa 13 days prior. In its early developmental stages, the depression meandered over Nicaragua, later paralleling the Mosquito Coast before intensifying into tropical storm intensity on November 1; Michelle was upgraded to hurricane strength the following day. Shortly after, rapid intensification ensued within favorable conditions, with the storm's central barometric pressure dropping 51 mbar in 29 hours. After a slight fluctuation in strength, Michelle reached its peak intensity as a Category 4 hurricane with winds of 140 mph (230 km/h) and a minimum pressure of 933 mbar. This tied Michelle with 1999's Lenny as the fourth most powerful November hurricane on record in the Atlantic Basin, behind only the 1932 Cuba hurricane and 2020 Hurricanes Iota and Eta. At roughly the same time, the hurricane began to accelerate northeastward; this brought the intense hurricane to a Cuban landfall within the Bay of Pigs later that day. Crossing over the island, Michelle was weakened significantly, and was only a Category 1 hurricane upon reentry into the Atlantic Ocean. The hurricane later transitioned into an extratropical cyclone over The Bahamas on November 5, before being absorbed by a cold front the following day.
The 1991 Atlantic hurricane season was the first season since 1984 in which no hurricanes developed from tropical waves, which are the source for most North Atlantic tropical cyclones. The hurricane season officially began on June 1, and ended on November 30. It was the least active in four years due to higher than usual wind shear across the Atlantic Ocean. The first storm, Ana, developed on July 2 off the southeast United States and dissipated without causing significant effects. Two other tropical storms in the season – Danny and Erika – did not significantly affect land. Danny dissipated east of the Lesser Antilles, and Erika passed through the Azores before becoming extratropical. In addition, there were four non-developing tropical depressions. The second depression of the season struck Mexico with significant accompanying rains.
Tropical Storm Zeta was a very late-developing tropical storm that formed in the central Atlantic Ocean during the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season, one month after the season's official end. Becoming a tropical depression on December 30, and intensifying the following day into the season's 28th storm, Zeta continued into January 2006. It was one of only two Atlantic tropical cyclones to span two calendar years.
James Louis Franklin is a former weather forecaster encompassing a 35-year career with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). He served as the first branch chief of the newly formed Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU) before his retirement in 2017.
The 2011 Pacific hurricane season was a below average season in terms of named storms, although it had an above average number of hurricanes and major hurricanes. During the season, 13 tropical depressions formed along with 11 tropical storms, 10 hurricanes and 6 major hurricanes. The season officially began on May 15 in the East Pacific Ocean, and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they both ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Pacific basin. The season's first cyclone, Hurricane Adrian formed on June 7, and the last, Hurricane Kenneth, dissipated on November 25.
Tropical Storm Fay was an unusual tropical storm that moved erratically across the state of Florida and the Caribbean Sea. The sixth named storm of the 2008 Atlantic hurricane season, Fay formed from a vigorous tropical wave on August 15 over the Dominican Republic. It passed over the island of Hispaniola, into the Gulf of Gonâve, across the island of Cuba, and made landfall on the Florida Keys late in the afternoon of August 18 before veering into the Gulf of Mexico. It again made landfall near Naples, Florida, in the early hours of August 19 and progressed northeast through the Florida peninsula, emerging into the Atlantic Ocean near Melbourne on August 20. Extensive flooding took place in parts of Florida as a result of its slow movement. On August 21, it made landfall again near New Smyrna Beach, Florida, moving due west across the Panhandle, crossing Gainesville and Panama City, Florida. As it zigzagged from water to land, it became the first storm in recorded history to make landfall in Florida four times. Thirty-six deaths were blamed on Fay. The storm also resulted in one of the most prolific tropical cyclone related tornado outbreaks on record. A total of 81 tornadoes touched down across five states, three of which were rated as EF2. Fay would cause around $560 million in damages throughout its lifespan.
The 2009 Pacific hurricane season was the most active Pacific hurricane season since 1997. The season officially started on May 15 in the East Pacific Ocean, and on June 1 in the Central Pacific; they both ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the Eastern Pacific tropical cyclone basin; however, tropical cyclone formation is possible at any time of the year. The first system of the season, Tropical Depression One-E, developed on June 18, and the last, Hurricane Neki, dissipated on October 27, keeping activity well within the bounds of the season.
The 2017 Pacific hurricane season was an above average Pacific hurricane season in terms of named storms, though less active than the previous three, featuring eighteen named storms, nine hurricanes, and four major hurricanes. Despite the considerable amount of activity, most of the storms were weak and short-lived. The season officially started on May 15 in the eastern Pacific Ocean, and on June 1 in the central Pacific; they both ended on November 30. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the respective regions. However, the formation of tropical cyclones is possible at any time of the year, as illustrated in 2017 by the formation of the season's first named storm, Tropical Storm Adrian, on May 9. At the time, this was the earliest formation of a tropical storm on record in the eastern Pacific basin proper. The season saw near-average activity in terms of accumulated cyclone energy (ACE), in stark contrast to the extremely active seasons in 2014, 2015, and 2016; and for the first time since 2012, no tropical cyclones formed in the Central Pacific basin. However, for the third year in a row, the season featured above-average activity in July, with the ACE value being the fifth highest for the month. Damage across the basin reached $375.28 million (2017 USD), while 45 people were killed by the various storms.
Hurricane Epsilon was the twenty-seventh named tropical or subtropical storm and the final of 15 hurricanes in the record-breaking 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. Originating from a cold front beneath an upper-level low, Epsilon formed on November 29 about 915 mi (1470 km) east of Bermuda, becoming the second tropical storm to do so in that area of the Atlantic within the span of a week. Initially, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) forecast the storm to transition into an extratropical cyclone within five days, due to conditions unfavorable for significant intensification. Epsilon continually defied forecasts, at first due to an unexpected loop to the southwest, and later due to retaining its strength despite cold waters and strong wind shear.
Hurricane Adrian was an intense, albeit short-lived early-season Category 4 hurricane that brought heavy rainfall and high waves to Mexico in June 2011 during the 2011 Pacific hurricane season. Adrian originated from an area of disturbed weather which had developed during the course of early June, off the Pacific coast of Mexico. On June 7, it acquired a sufficiently organized structure with deep convection to be classified as a tropical cyclone, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) designated it as Tropical Depression One-E, the first one of 2011. It further strengthened to be upgraded into a tropical storm later that day. Adrian moved rather slowly; briefly recurving northward after being caught in the steering winds. After steady intensification, it was upgraded into a hurricane on June 9. The storm subsequently entered a phase of rapid intensification, developing a distinct eye with good outflow in all quadrants. Followed by this period of rapid intensification, it obtained sustained winds fast enough to be considered a major hurricane and reached its peak intensity as a category 4 hurricane that evening.
The history of Atlantic tropical cyclone warnings details the progress of tropical cyclone warnings in the North Atlantic Ocean. The first service was set up in the 1870s from Cuba with the work of Father Benito Viñes. After his death, hurricane warning services were assumed by the US Army Signal Corps and United States Weather Bureau over the next few decades, first based in Jamaica and Cuba before shifting to Washington, D.C. The central office in Washington, which would evolve into the National Meteorological Center and the Weather Prediction Center, assumed the responsibilities by the early 20th century. This responsibility passed to regional hurricane offices in 1935, and the concept of the Atlantic hurricane season was established to keep a vigilant lookout for tropical cyclones during certain times of the year. Hurricane advisories issued every 12 hours by the regional hurricane offices began at this time.
Hurricane Matthew was the first Category 5 Atlantic hurricane since Felix in 2007 and the southernmost Category 5 Atlantic hurricane on record. The system originated from a tropical wave that emerged off the west coast of Africa on September 22, and ultimately dissipated as an extratropical cyclone near Atlantic Canada on October 10. Late on September 29, it began a period of explosive intensification that brought it to Category 5 strength early on October 1. It weakened slightly and remained a Category 4 until its landfalls in Haiti and Cuba, afterwards it traversed through the Bahamas and paralleled the coast of Florida until making landfall in South Carolina as a Category 1 hurricane. Matthew later transitioned into a post-tropical cyclone on October 10.
