James Franklin (meteorologist)

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James Louis Franklin
James Franklin (meteorologist).png
Franklin at the National Hurricane Center.
Born1958 (age 64–65)
Alma mater Massachusetts Institute of Technology
Occupation Meteorologist
Years active35
Employer NOAA
Organization Hurricane Specialist Unit
Known for Hurricanes, meteorology, dropsonde, Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project

James Louis Franklin is a former weather forecaster encompassing a 35-year career with National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). He served as the first branch chief of the newly formed Hurricane Specialist Unit (HSU) before his retirement in 2017. [1] [2]

Contents

Education and xareer

Franklin graduated from the Ransom Everglades School [3] in Miami, where he was a co-valedictorian in 1976 before going on to graduate with a Master of Science from Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT) in 1984. [4]

Most of his career was dedicated to developing better ways to more accurately predict hurricane intensity. In an interview as branch chief, he stated that it is much easier to predict the trajectory of a hurricane than the intensity of a hurricane due to a "lack of understanding of how the physical processes work, lack of observations of the small-scale features that are controlling intensity, and to some extent the models are not advanced enough." [2] Moreover, in 2012 Franklin said “predicting storm intensity requires knowing lots of small-scale details that computer models have trouble capturing, from the dynamics of a storm’s structure to the characteristics of air masses being pulled into a storm’s circulation.” [5]

Beginning as a student at MIT and early on in his career, he helped develop a device, dropsonde, designed to be dropped from an aircraft to measure atmospheric conditions as it falls to earth. [4] [6] In 1982, the U.S. Air Force Reserve Command hurricane hunters began using an Omega-based dropsonde to measure the atmospheric pressure, temperature, relative humidity, wind speed and the direction of hurricanes. [7] [8] Installing GPS location equipment improved hurricane intensity forecast accuracy by directly measuring the eyewall characteristics. [9]

Franklin then contributed to the Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF), hurricane forecasting software, developed by the Naval Research Laboratory which has been used by the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) since 1987 and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) since 1990. [10] His career with the NHC also contributed to developing 5-day forecasts, which became standard for hurricanes predicted to make landfall in the U.S. [11] Additionally, 3-day accuracy of hurricane trajectory forecasting improved by reducing the prediction uncertainty from 518 miles in 1970 to 48 miles. [5] Further advances in hurricane forecasting came with the Hurricane Forecasting Improvement Program (HFIP), with specific goals to reduce the average errors of hurricane track and intensity forecasts by 20% within five years and 50% in ten years with a forecast period out to 7 days. [12] While the HFIP was on track to meet these objectives, particularly with the Hurricane Weather Research and Forecasting Model, a budget decrease threatened to impede the objectives of the program. [13] Success of the HFIP can be partially attributed to the Doppler weather radar measurements taken from aircraft flying into hurricanes. [14] [2]

Franklin accepted the science of meteorology, but recognized the limitations of the Saffir–Simpson scales in communicating the dangers of hurricanes. While overseeing the HSU, he tried to emphasize all the hazards of a hurricane, most importantly the storm surge. [15] During Hurricane Sandy, the storm was predicted to weaken to a post-tropical cyclone before landfall on the Eastern U.S. coastline. Downgrading the hurricane could have minimized the public's storm preparation but was the best forecast given the evidence. Ultimately, retaining the status as a hurricane for public messaging “would have utterly destroyed the credibility of the agency in the long run,” Franklin said. [16] Franklin also supported an approach to move the start date of the hurricane season from June 1 to an earlier date. [17] A start date of June 1 would have only missed 3.1% of U.S. landfalls with wind speeds exceeding 39 mph between 1971 and 2018. [18] Meanwhile, a start date of May 15 would have captured all but one out of 162 U.S. storms in the same timeframe. However, Franklin cautioned against moving the date even earlier to May 1, due to concerns over public safety and a lack of preparedness during the peak of the season.

In 2007, Franklin, along with twenty-two other staff members, signed a letter to remove its current director, William Proenza, stating “The effective functioning of the National Hurricane Center is at stake.”. [19] The staff were critical of Proenza's unscientific claim over the impact of a weather satellite on forecasting performance. [20]

Forecast style

Franklin, much like his counterpart Lixion Avila, would add his own commentary to the forecast. Some examples are below.

Recognition

Franklin (middle) receiving the Isaac M. Cline Award with Scott Gudes (left) and retired Air Force General Jack Kelly, director of NWS. James Franklin.jpg
Franklin (middle) receiving the Isaac M. Cline Award with Scott Gudes (left) and retired Air Force General Jack Kelly, director of NWS.

Issac M. Cline award in 2001. [4]

Selected publications

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">National Hurricane Center</span> Division of the United States National Weather Service

The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is the division of the United States' NOAA/National Weather Service responsible for tracking and predicting tropical weather systems between the Prime Meridian and the 140th meridian west poleward to the 30th parallel north in the northeast Pacific Ocean and the 31st parallel north in the northern Atlantic Ocean. The agency, which is co-located with the Miami branch of the National Weather Service, is situated on the campus of Florida International University in University Park, Miami, Florida.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hurricane Linda (1997)</span> Category 5 Pacific hurricane in 1997

Hurricane Linda was a very powerful Category 5 hurricane that was, at the time, the most intense eastern Pacific hurricane on record until surpassed 18 years later by Patricia. Forming from a tropical wave on September 9, 1997, Linda steadily intensified and reached hurricane status within 36 hours of developing. The storm rapidly intensified, reaching sustained winds of 185 mph (298 km/h) and an estimated central pressure of 902 millibars (26.6 inHg); both were records for the eastern Pacific until Hurricane Patricia surpassed them in 2015. The hurricane was briefly forecast to move toward southern California, but instead, it turned out to sea and lost its status as a tropical cyclone on September 17, before dissipating on September 21. Linda was the fifteenth tropical cyclone, thirteenth named storm, seventh hurricane, and fifth major hurricane of the 1997 Pacific hurricane season. Linda was also the most intense tropical cyclone worldwide in 1997.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclone forecast model</span> Computer program that uses meteorological data to forecast tropical cyclones

A tropical cyclone forecast model is a computer program that uses meteorological data to forecast aspects of the future state of tropical cyclones. There are three types of models: statistical, dynamical, or combined statistical-dynamic. Dynamical models utilize powerful supercomputers with sophisticated mathematical modeling software and meteorological data to calculate future weather conditions. Statistical models forecast the evolution of a tropical cyclone in a simpler manner, by extrapolating from historical datasets, and thus can be run quickly on platforms such as personal computers. Statistical-dynamical models use aspects of both types of forecasting. Four primary types of forecasts exist for tropical cyclones: track, intensity, storm surge, and rainfall. Dynamical models were not developed until the 1970s and the 1980s, with earlier efforts focused on the storm surge problem.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Eye (cyclone)</span> Central area of calm weather in a tropical cyclone

The eye is a region of mostly calm weather at the center of a tropical cyclone. The eye of a storm is a roughly circular area, typically 30–65 kilometers in diameter. It is surrounded by the eyewall, a ring of towering thunderstorms where the most severe weather and highest winds of the cyclone occur. The cyclone's lowest barometric pressure occurs in the eye and can be as much as 15 percent lower than the pressure outside the storm.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dvorak technique</span> Subjective technique to estimate tropical cyclone intensity

The Dvorak technique is a widely used system to estimate tropical cyclone intensity based solely on visible and infrared satellite images. Within the Dvorak satellite strength estimate for tropical cyclones, there are several visual patterns that a cyclone may take on which define the upper and lower bounds on its intensity. The primary patterns used are curved band pattern (T1.0-T4.5), shear pattern (T1.5–T3.5), central dense overcast (CDO) pattern (T2.5–T5.0), central cold cover (CCC) pattern, banding eye pattern (T4.0–T4.5), and eye pattern (T4.5–T8.0).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Central dense overcast</span> Large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center

The central dense overcast, or CDO, of a tropical cyclone or strong subtropical cyclone is the large central area of thunderstorms surrounding its circulation center, caused by the formation of its eyewall. It can be round, angular, oval, or irregular in shape. This feature shows up in tropical cyclones of tropical storm or hurricane strength. How far the center is embedded within the CDO, and the temperature difference between the cloud tops within the CDO and the cyclone's eye, can help determine a tropical cyclone's intensity with the Dvorak technique. Locating the center within the CDO can be a problem with strong tropical storms and minimal hurricanes as its location can be obscured by the CDO's high cloud canopy. This center location problem can be resolved through the use of microwave satellite imagery.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclone forecasting</span> Science of forecasting how a tropical cyclone moves and its effects

Tropical cyclone forecasting is the science of forecasting where a tropical cyclone's center, and its effects, are expected to be at some point in the future. There are several elements to tropical cyclone forecasting: track forecasting, intensity forecasting, rainfall forecasting, storm surge, tornado, and seasonal forecasting. While skill is increasing in regard to track forecasting, intensity forecasting skill remains unchanged over the past several years. Seasonal forecasting began in the 1980s in the Atlantic basin and has spread into other basins in the years since.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclone track forecasting</span> Predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next five days, every 6 to 12 hours

Tropical cyclone track forecasting involves predicting where a tropical cyclone is going to track over the next five days, every 6 to 12 hours. The history of tropical cyclone track forecasting has evolved from a single-station approach to a comprehensive approach which uses a variety of meteorological tools and methods to make predictions. The weather of a particular location can show signs of the approaching tropical cyclone, such as increasing swell, increasing cloudiness, falling barometric pressure, increasing tides, squalls and heavy rainfall.

The Hurricane Databases (HURDAT), managed by the National Hurricane Center, are two separate databases that contain details on tropical cyclones, that have occurred within the Atlantic Ocean and Eastern Pacific Ocean since 1851 and 1949 respectively.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">History of Atlantic hurricane warnings</span> Aspect of meteorological history

The history of Atlantic tropical cyclone warnings details the progress of tropical cyclone warnings in the North Atlantic Ocean. The first service was set up in the 1870s from Cuba with the work of Father Benito Viñes. After his death, hurricane warning services were assumed by the US Army Signal Corps and United States Weather Bureau over the next few decades, first based in Jamaica and Cuba before shifting to Washington, D.C. The central office in Washington, which would evolve into the National Meteorological Center and the Weather Prediction Center, assumed the responsibilities by the early 20th century. This responsibility passed to regional hurricane offices in 1935, and the concept of the Atlantic hurricane season was established to keep a vigilant lookout for tropical cyclones during certain times of the year. Hurricane advisories issued every 12 hours by the regional hurricane offices began at this time.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System</span> Software used to predict and forecast tropical cyclogenesis and to track tropical cyclones

The Automated Tropical Cyclone Forecasting System (ATCF) is a piece of software originally developed to run on a personal computer for the Joint Typhoon Warning Center (JTWC) in 1988, and the National Hurricane Center (NHC) in 1990. ATCF remains the main piece of forecasting software used for the United States Government, including the JTWC, NHC, and Central Pacific Hurricane Center. Other tropical cyclone centers in Australia and Canada developed similar software in the 1990s. The data files with ATCF lie within three decks, known as the a-, b-, and f-decks. The a-decks include forecast information, the b-decks contain a history of center fixes at synoptic hours, and the f-decks include the various fixes made by various analysis center at various times. In the years since its introduction, it has been adapted to Unix and Linux platforms.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">The Hurricane Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment</span> Project intending to improve hurricane forecasting

The Hurricane Rainband and Intensity Change Experiment (RAINEX) is a project to improve hurricane intensity forecasting via measuring interactions between rainbands and the eyewalls of tropical cyclones. The experiment was planned for the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season. This coincidence of RAINEX with the 2005 Atlantic hurricane season led to the study and exploration of infamous hurricanes Katrina, Ophelia, and Rita. Where Hurricane Katrina and Hurricane Rita would go on to cause major damage to the US Gulf coast, Hurricane Ophelia provided an interesting contrast to these powerful cyclones as it never developed greater than a Category 1.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tropical cyclone tracking chart</span> Chart used in plotting tropical cyclone tracks

A tropical cyclone tracking chart is used by those within hurricane-threatened areas to track tropical cyclones worldwide. In the north Atlantic basin, they are known as hurricane tracking charts. New tropical cyclone information is available at least every six hours in the Northern Hemisphere and at least every twelve hours in the Southern Hemisphere. Charts include maps of the areas where tropical cyclones form and track within the various basins, include name lists for the year, basin-specific tropical cyclone definitions, rules of thumb for hurricane preparedness, emergency contact information, and numbers for figuring out where tropical cyclone shelters are open.

References

  1. ↑ Kay, Jennifer (2017). "Forecaster says budget cuts could hurt hurricane predictions". Phys.org. The Associated Press. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  2. 1 2 3 Feltgen, Dennis (2009). "Q & A for NHC - James Franklin" . Retrieved 2019-03-25.
  3. ↑ Alumni Directory. Coconut Grove, FL: Ransom-Everglades School. 1981.
  4. 1 2 3 Wilson, Glynn (2002). "Lessons from Lili". Gambit. New Orleans. Archived from the original on 2006-06-18. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  5. 1 2 Samenow, Jason (2012). "The National Hurricane Center's striking forecast for Superstorm Sandy". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  6. ↑ Franklin, James (1984). An evaluation of omega wind-finding accuracy using stationary dropwindsondes (MSc). Massachusetts Institute of Technology. hdl:1721.1/52880.
  7. ↑ "NCAR and Dropsonde History". Earth Observing Laboratory. 25 March 2019. Retrieved 23 March 2019.
  8. ↑ "NOAA Hurricane Dropsonde Archive". Earth Observing Laboratory. 25 March 2019. Retrieved 23 March 2019.
  9. ↑ Eisenberg, Anne (2003). "From a Hurricane's Eye, Skydiving Sensors Yield Answers". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2017-12-29. Retrieved 2017-12-29.
  10. ↑ Sampson CR, Schrader A (2007). "Development and Implementation of NHC/JHT Products in ATCF" (PDF). 61st Interdepartmental Hurricane Conference. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  11. 1 2 Rappaport EN, Franklin JL, Avila LA, Baig SR, Beven JL, Blake ES, Burr CA, Jiing JG, Juckins CA, Knabb, RD, Landsea CW, Mainelli M, Mayfield M, McAdie CJ, Pasch RJ, Sisko C, Stewart SR, and Tribble AN (2009). "Advances and Challenges at the National Hurricane Center" (PDF). Weather and Forecasting. 24 (2): 395–419. Bibcode:2009WtFor..24..395R. doi:10.1175/2008WAF2222128.1. S2CID   14845745.
  12. 1 2 Penny AB, Simon A, DeMaria M, Franklin JL, Pasch RJ, Rappaport EN, and Zelinsky DA (2018). "A Description of the Real-Time HFIP Corrected Consensus Approach (HCCA) for Tropical Cyclone Track and Intensity Guidance". Weather and Forecasting. 33 (1): 37–57. Bibcode:2018WtFor..33...37S. doi: 10.1175/waf-d-17-0068.1 .
  13. ↑ Samenow, Jason (2015). "Funding for promising hurricane forecast improvement program slashed". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  14. ↑ Fountain, Henry (2011). "Intensity of Hurricanes Still Bedevils Scientists". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2012-11-09. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  15. ↑ Fritz, Angela (2019). "AccuWeather developed a hurricane category scale, and it worries some meteorologists". The Washington Post. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  16. ↑ Santora, Marc (2013). "Hurricane Center Seeks Expanded Authority to Issue Warnings". The New York Times. Archived from the original on 2013-03-29. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  17. ↑ Samenow, Jason (2015). "Hurricane Center: May storms don't mean hurricane season should start earlier". Washington Post. Retrieved 2018-03-26.
  18. ↑ Truchelut, Ryan; Staehling, Erica (2018). "With increasing storms, Atlantic hurricane season needs to expand and begin on May 15". Washington Post. Retrieved 2018-03-26.
  19. ↑ Chang, Kenneth (2007). "Storm Center Staff Seeks to Remove Its Director". New York Times. Archived from the original on 2015-06-05. Retrieved 2018-03-26.
  20. ↑ Whoriskey, Peter (2007). "Head of Hurricane Center Replaced: Inspectors Perceived 'Anxiety and Disruption' at the Agency". Washington Post. Archived from the original on 2012-11-02. Retrieved 2018-03-26.
  21. ↑ Franklin, James (2002). "Tropical Storm Kyle Discussion number 58". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  22. ↑ Franklin, James (2002). "Tropical Depression Kyle Discussion number 78". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  23. ↑ Franklin, James (2005). "Tropical Storm Franklin Discussion number 8". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  24. ↑ Franklin, James (2006). "Tropical Cyclone Report—Hurricane Vince". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  25. ↑ Franklin, James (2009). "Tropical Depression Ana Discussion number 22". National Hurricane Center. Retrieved 2019-03-24.
  26. ↑ Velden C, Hayden CM, Menzel WP, Franklin JL, LynchJS (1991). "The Impact of Satellite-derived Winds on Numerical Hurricane Track Forecasting". Weather and Forecasting. 7 (1): 107–118. doi: 10.1175/1520-0434(1992)007<0107:TIOSDW>2.0.CO;2 .
  27. ↑ Aberson SD, Franklin JL (1999). "Impact on Hurricane Track and Intensity Forecasts of GPS Dropwindsonde Observations from the First-Season Flights of the NOAA Gulfstream-IV Jet Aircraft". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 80 (3): 421–428. Bibcode:1999BAMS...80..421A. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0421:IOHTAI>2.0.CO;2 .
  28. ↑ Hock TF, Franklin JL (1999). "The NCAR GPS Dropwindsonde". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 93 (3): 407–420. Bibcode:1999BAMS...80..407H. doi: 10.1175/1520-0477(1999)080<0407:TNGD>2.0.CO;2 .
  29. ↑ Franklin JL, McAdie CJ, Lawrence MB (2003). "Trends in Track Forecasting for Tropical Cyclones Threatening the United States, 1970–2001". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 84 (9): 1197–1203. Bibcode:2003BAMS...84.1197F. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-84-9-1197 . S2CID   14812689.
  30. ↑ Rappaport EN, Jiing JG, Landsea CW, Murillo ST, Franklin JL (2012). "The Joint Hurricane Test Bed: Its First Decade of Tropical Cyclone Research-To-Operations Activities Reviewed". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 93 (3): 371–380. Bibcode:2012BAMS...93..371R. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-11-00037.1 .
  31. ↑ Franklin JL, McAdie CJ, Lawrence MB (2013). "The Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 94 (3): 329–343. Bibcode:2013BAMS...94..329G. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-12-00071.1 .
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