The Median multiple or Median house price to income ratio is a housing indicator used to indicate the affordability of housing in any given community. [1] The Median house price to income ratio WAS the primary indicator H1 of the 1991 World Bank/UNCHS Housing Indicator system. [2] [3] It was subsequently used as a measure of affordability by the UN Commission for Sustainable Development, the National Association of Realtors, State of the Environment 2003 Tasmania; and the Mortgage Guide UK [4] along with many other organisations. [5]
The indicator has been popularised by Demographia International, and was called the 'Median multiple' from their second comparative international survey in 2006. [6]
The median multiple is the ratio of the median house price by the median gross (before tax) annual household income. This measure has historically hovered around a value of 3 or less, but in recent years has risen dramatically, especially in markets with public policy constraints on land and development. [7]
The median multiple ratio has an important flaw in that it fails to account for the critical affordability component of mortgage interest rates. Mortgage interest rates are a major impacting factor on affordability as most real estate purchasers utilise mortgage finance to purchase real estate. In 1991 when the World Bank announced the median multiple as the primary affordability indicator, global mortgage rates were around 10%p.a. Since then interest rates have generally been on a long term downward trend. Whilst mortgage rates may not, stay below 10% using the median multiple in isolation to assess affordability has proven over a long period to have been a misleading affordability measure.
The International Housing Affordability Survey uses the following table to determine affordability ratings: [8]
Rating | Median multiple |
---|---|
Severely unaffordable | 5.1 and over |
Seriously unaffordable | 4.1 to 5.0 |
Moderately unaffordable | 3.1 to 4.0 |
Affordable | 3.0 and under |
This aims to be a complete list of the articles on real estate.
Real estate economics is the application of economic techniques to real estate markets. It tries to describe, explain, and predict patterns of prices, supply, and demand. The closely related field of housing economics is narrower in scope, concentrating on residential real estate markets, while the research on real estate trends focuses on the business and structural changes affecting the industry. Both draw on partial equilibrium analysis, urban economics, spatial economics, basic and extensive research, surveys, and finance.
The affordability of housing in the UK reflects the ability to rent or buy property. There are various ways to determine or estimate housing affordability. One commonly used metric is the median housing affordability ratio; this compares the median price paid for residential property to the median gross annual earnings for full-time workers. According to official government statistics, housing affordability worsened between 2020 and 2021, and since 1997 housing affordability has worsened overall, especially in London. The most affordable local authorities in 2021 were in the North West, Wales, Yorkshire and The Humber, West Midlands and North East.
Wendell Cox is an American urban policy analyst and proponent of the use of the private car over rail projects. He is the principal and sole owner of Wendell Cox Consultancy/Demographia, based in the St. Louis metropolitan region and editor of three web sites, Demographia, The Public Purpose and Urban Tours by Rental Car. Cox is a fellow of numerous conservative think tanks and a frequent op-ed commenter in conservative US and UK newspapers.
A housing bubble is one of several types of asset price bubbles which periodically occur in the market. The basic concept of a housing bubble is the same as for other asset bubbles, consisting of two main phases. First there is a period where house prices increase dramatically, driven more and more by speculation. In the second phase, house prices fall dramatically. Housing bubbles tend to be among the asset bubbles with the largest effect on the real economy, because they are credit-fueled, because a large number of households participate and not just investors, and because the wealth effect from housing tends to be larger than for other types of financial assets.
A real-estate bubble or property bubble is a type of economic bubble that occurs periodically in local or global real estate markets, and it typically follows a land boom. A land boom is a rapid increase in the market price of real property such as housing until they reach unsustainable levels and then declines. This period, during the run-up to the crash, is also known as froth. The questions of whether real estate bubbles can be identified and prevented, and whether they have broader macroeconomic significance, are answered differently by schools of economic thought, as detailed below.
Affordable housing is housing which is deemed affordable to those with a household income at or below the median as rated by the national government or a local government by a recognized housing affordability index. Most of the literature on affordable housing refers to mortgages and a number of forms that exist along a continuum – from emergency homeless shelters, to transitional housing, to non-market rental, to formal and informal rental, indigenous housing, and ending with affordable home ownership.
A mortgage loan or simply mortgage, in civil law jurisdicions known also as a hypothec loan, is a loan used either by purchasers of real property to raise funds to buy real estate, or by existing property owners to raise funds for any purpose while putting a lien on the property being mortgaged. The loan is "secured" on the borrower's property through a process known as mortgage origination. This means that a legal mechanism is put into place which allows the lender to take possession and sell the secured property to pay off the loan in the event the borrower defaults on the loan or otherwise fails to abide by its terms. The word mortgage is derived from a Law French term used in Britain in the Middle Ages meaning "death pledge" and refers to the pledge ending (dying) when either the obligation is fulfilled or the property is taken through foreclosure. A mortgage can also be described as "a borrower giving consideration in the form of a collateral for a benefit (loan)".
A starter home or starter house is a house that is usually the first which a person or family can afford to purchase, often using a combination of savings and mortgage financing. In the real estate industry the term commonly denotes small one- or two-bedroom houses, often older homes but sometimes low-cost new developments. The concept originated in the United States during the post-World War II era when entry-level home ownership was a preferred option for young families and regarded as part of the American Dream.
Observers and analysts have attributed the reasons for the 2001–2006 housing bubble and its 2007–10 collapse in the United States to "everyone from home buyers to Wall Street, mortgage brokers to Alan Greenspan". Other factors that are named include "Mortgage underwriters, investment banks, rating agencies, and investors", "low mortgage interest rates, low short-term interest rates, relaxed standards for mortgage loans, and irrational exuberance" Politicians in both the Democratic and Republican political parties have been cited for "pushing to keep derivatives unregulated" and "with rare exceptions" giving Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac "unwavering support".
The Australian property bubble is the economic theory that the Australian property market has become or is becoming significantly overpriced and due for a significant downturn. Since the early 2010s, various commentators, including one Treasury official, have claimed the Australian property market is in a significant bubble.
A housing affordability index (HAI) is an index that measures housing affordability, usually the degree to which the median person or family in a particular country or region can afford housing/housing-related costs.
The 2005 Chinese property bubble was a real estate bubble in residential and commercial real estate in China. The New York Times reported that the bubble started to deflate in 2011, while observing increased complaints that members of the middle-class were unable to afford homes in large cities. The deflation of the property bubble is seen as one of the primary causes for China's declining economic growth in 2013.
Affordable housing in Canada is housing that is deemed affordable to those with a median household income in Canada.
The Baltic states' housing bubble was an economic bubble involving major cities in Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania. The three Baltic countries had enjoyed a relatively strong economic growth between 2000 and 2006, and the real estate sectors had performed well since 2000. In fact, in between 2005Q1 and 2007Q1, the official house price index for Estonia, Latvia and Lithuania recorded a sharp jump of 104.6%, 134.3% and 106.7%. By comparison, the official house price index for Euro Area increased by 11.8% for a similar time period.
The property bubble in New Zealand is a major national economic and social issue. Since the early 1990s, house prices in New Zealand have risen considerably faster than incomes, putting increasing pressure on public housing providers as fewer households have access to housing on the private market. The property bubble has produced significant impacts on inequality in New Zealand, which now has one of the highest homelessness rate in the OECD and a record-high waiting list for public housing. Government policies have attempted to address the crisis since 2013, but have produced limited impacts to reduce prices or increase the supply of affordable housing. However, prices started falling in 2022 in response to tightening of mortgage availability and supply increasing. Some areas saw drops as high as around 9% - albeit from very high prices.
Affordable housing is housing that is deemed affordable to those with a median household income as rated by the national government or a local government by a recognized housing affordability index. A general rule is no more than 30% of gross monthly income should be spent on housing, to be considered affordable for the challenges of promoting affordable housing varies by location.
The Canadian property bubble refers to a significant rise in Canadian real estate prices from 2002 to present which some observers have called a real estate bubble. From 2003 to 2018, Canada saw an increase in home and property prices of up to 337% in some cities. By 2018, home-owning costs were above 1990 levels when Canada saw its last housing bubble burst. Bloomberg Economics ranks Canada as the second largest housing bubble across the OECD in 2019 and 2021. Starting in February 2022, prices started to decline rapidly as the Bank of Canada hiked interest rates culminating in detached prices to decline by $40 in the Greater Toronto Area by September of 2022.
The 16th Annual Demographia International Housing Affordability Survey: 2020 analyzed affordability in 8 Anglophone countries. Among this sample, the housing markets with the least affordable real estate prices are Hong Kong, Vancouver, and Sydney. The top three housing markets with the most affordable real estate prices based on major housing markets are Rochester, New York, Cleveland, Ohio, and Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. This survey was performed by Demographia, a global analysis firm.
Housing indicators are policy indicators designed to measure progress toward achieving housing policy goals. A housing indicator is a single, usually dimensionless number that points the way to improving housing outcomes. Because housing policy is heavily intertwined with other sectors such as social, economic, demographic and labour policy, and with the construction and finance industries, it requires a fairly comprehensive system of indicators to cover most of the key policies and issues. Housing indicator sets may contain political bias supporting the agendas or interests of those drawing up the system..