Nonlinear modelling

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In mathematics, nonlinear modelling is empirical or semi-empirical modelling which takes at least some nonlinearities into account. Nonlinear modelling in practice therefore means modelling of phenomena in which independent variables affecting the system can show complex and synergetic nonlinear effects. Contrary to traditional modelling methods, such as linear regression and basic statistical methods, nonlinear modelling can be utilized efficiently in a vast number of situations where traditional modelling is impractical or impossible. The newer nonlinear modelling approaches include non-parametric methods, such as feedforward neural networks, kernel regression, multivariate splines, etc., which do not require a priori knowledge of the nonlinearities in the relations. Thus the nonlinear modelling can utilize production data or experimental results while taking into account complex nonlinear behaviours of modelled phenomena which are in most cases practically impossible to be modelled by means of traditional mathematical approaches, such as phenomenological modelling.

Mathematics Field of study concerning quantity, patterns and change

Mathematics includes the study of such topics as quantity, structure, space, and change.

A mathematical model is a description of a system using mathematical concepts and language. The process of developing a mathematical model is termed mathematical modeling. Mathematical models are used in the natural sciences and engineering disciplines, as well as in the social sciences.

Linear regression statistical approach for modeling the relationship between a scalar dependent variable and one or more explanatory variables

In statistics, linear regression is a linear approach to modelling the relationship between a scalar response and one or more explanatory variables. The case of one explanatory variable is called simple linear regression. For more than one explanatory variable, the process is called multiple linear regression. This term is distinct from multivariate linear regression, where multiple correlated dependent variables are predicted, rather than a single scalar variable.

Contrary to phenomenological modelling, nonlinear modelling can be utilized in processes and systems where the theory is deficient or there is a lack of fundamental understanding on the root causes of most crucial factors on system. Phenomenological modelling describes a system in terms of laws of nature. Nonlinear modelling can be utilized in situations where the phenomena are not well understood or expressed in mathematical terms. Thus nonlinear modelling can be an efficient way to model new and complex situations where relationships of different variables are not known.

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Analysis is the process of breaking a complex topic or substance into smaller parts in order to gain a better understanding of it. The technique has been applied in the study of mathematics and logic since before Aristotle, though analysis as a formal concept is a relatively recent development.

Econometrics is the application of statistical methods to economic data in order to give empirical content to economic relationships. More precisely, it is "the quantitative analysis of actual economic phenomena based on the concurrent development of theory and observation, related by appropriate methods of inference". An introductory economics textbook describes econometrics as allowing economists "to sift through mountains of data to extract simple relationships". The first known use of the term "econometrics" was by Polish economist Paweł Ciompa in 1910. Jan Tinbergen is considered by many to be one of the founding fathers of econometrics. Ragnar Frisch is credited with coining the term in the sense in which it is used today.

Least squares method in statistics

The method of least squares is a standard approach in regression analysis to approximate the solution of overdetermined systems, i.e., sets of equations in which there are more equations than unknowns. "Least squares" means that the overall solution minimizes the sum of the squares of the residuals made in the results of every single equation.

In mathematics and science, a nonlinear system is a system in which the change of the output is not proportional to the change of the input. Nonlinear problems are of interest to engineers, biologists, physicists, mathematicians, and many other scientists because most systems are inherently nonlinear in nature. Nonlinear dynamical systems, describing changes in variables over time, may appear chaotic, unpredictable, or counterintuitive, contrasting with much simpler linear systems.

A prediction, or forecast, is a statement about a future event. A prediction is often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference between the two terms; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations.

The field of system identification uses statistical methods to build mathematical models of dynamical systems from measured data. System identification also includes the optimal design of experiments for efficiently generating informative data for fitting such models as well as model reduction.

Sensitivity analysis is the study of how the uncertainty in the output of a mathematical model or system can be divided and allocated to different sources of uncertainty in its inputs. A related practice is uncertainty analysis, which has a greater focus on uncertainty quantification and propagation of uncertainty; ideally, uncertainty and sensitivity analysis should be run in tandem.

Mathematical statistics branch of statistics, mathematical methods are used here

Mathematical statistics is the application of probability theory, a branch of mathematics, to statistics, as opposed to techniques for collecting statistical data. Specific mathematical techniques which are used for this include mathematical analysis, linear algebra, stochastic analysis, differential equations, and measure theory.

Robust regression

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Robust statistics are statistics with good performance for data drawn from a wide range of probability distributions, especially for distributions that are not normal. Robust statistical methods have been developed for many common problems, such as estimating location, scale, and regression parameters. One motivation is to produce statistical methods that are not unduly affected by outliers. Another motivation is to provide methods with good performance when there are small departures from parametric distributions. For example, robust methods work well for mixtures of two normal distributions with different standard-deviations; under this model, non-robust methods like a t-test work poorly.

Predictive analytics encompasses a variety of statistical techniques from data mining, predictive modelling, and machine learning, that analyze current and historical facts to make predictions about future or otherwise unknown events.

Local regression generalization of moving average and polynomial regression

Local regression or local polynomial regression, also known as moving regression, is a generalization of moving average and polynomial regression. Its most common methods, initially developed for scatterplot smoothing, are LOESS and LOWESS, both pronounced. They are two strongly related non-parametric regression methods that combine multiple regression models in a k-nearest-neighbor-based meta-model.

Statistical finance, is the application of econophysics to financial markets. Instead of the normative roots of much of the field of finance, it uses a positivist framework including exemplars from statistical physics with an emphasis on emergent or collective properties of financial markets. The starting point for this approach to understanding financial markets are the empirically observed stylized facts.

In statistics, multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) is a form of regression analysis introduced by Jerome H. Friedman in 1991. It is a non-parametric regression technique and can be seen as an extension of linear models that automatically models nonlinearities and interactions between variables.

In statistics, a shrinkage estimator is an estimator that, either explicitly or implicitly, incorporates the effects of shrinkage. In loose terms this means that a naive or raw estimate is improved by combining it with other information. The term relates to the notion that the improved estimate is made closer to the value supplied by the 'other information' than the raw estimate. In this sense, shrinkage is used to regularize ill-posed inference problems.

In statistics, the Sobel test is a method of testing the significance of a mediation effect. The test is based on the work of Michael E. Sobel, a statistics professor at Columbia University in New York, NY, and is an application of the delta method. In mediation, the relationship between the independent variable and the dependent variable is hypothesized to be an indirect effect that exists due to the influence of a third variable. As a result when the mediator is included in a regression analysis model with the independent variable, the effect of the independent variable is reduced and the effect of the mediator remains significant. The Sobel test is basically a specialized t test that provides a method to determine whether the reduction in the effect of the independent variable, after including the mediator in the model, is a significant reduction and therefore whether the mediation effect is statistically significant.

In mathematics, statistics, and computational modelling, a grey box model combines a partial theoretical structure with data to complete the model. The theoretical structure may vary from information on the smoothness of results, to models that need only parameter values from data or existing literature. Thus, almost all models are grey box models as opposed to black box where no model form is assumed or white box models that are purely theoretical. Some models assume a special form such as a linear regression or neural network. These have special analysis methods. In particular linear regression techniques are much more efficient than most non-linear techniques. The model can be deterministic or stochastic depending on its planned use.

Symbolic regression is a type of regression analysis that searches the space of mathematical expressions to find the model that best fits a given dataset, both in terms of accuracy and simplicity. No particular model is provided as a starting point to the algorithm. Instead, initial expressions are formed by randomly combining mathematical building blocks such as mathematical operators, analytic functions, constants, and state variables. New equations are then formed by recombining previous equations, using genetic programming.