Opinion polling for the 2010 Brazilian presidential election

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Dilma rindo.jpg Serra02032007-2.jpg Marinasilva13122006.jpg
Dilma Rousseff
PT 		José Serra
PSDB 		Marina Silva
PV

Opinion polling for the 2010 Brazilian presidential election started as early as 2008. All polls conducted between 1 January 2010 and election day were registered in the Superior Electoral Court database, as required by electoral law. [1] The main nationwide polling institutes are Datafolha, IBOPE, Vox Populi, and Sensus.

Contents

Election information

The first round of the 2010 Brazilian presidential election was held on October 3, as part of the country's general election, with a second round between the two leading candidates on October 31. That happened because under Brazilian law, if none of the candidates receives more than a half of the valid votes, a run-off is held four weeks after the first round. [2] The leading candidate, Dilma Rousseff, received 46.9% of the first-round vote, thereby making a second round necessary.

In the election, Brazilian citizens eligible to vote chose their successor to then-President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, of the democratic socialist/social democratic Workers' Party. According to the Constitution, the president is elected directly to a four-year term, with a limit of two terms. Lula was hence ineligible for a third term, since he was elected in 2002 and re-elected in 2006. [3] The 2010 election marked the first time since the end of the military dictatorship that Lula was not a candidate for the presidency. [4]

Candidates overview

Since the earliest polls for president, former São Paulo Governor José Serra – candidate for the center-right [5] opposition group led by the centrist/Third Way [6] [7] Social Democratic Party – was ahead of Dilma Rousseff, pre-candidate for the ruling center-left bloc led by the Workers' Party. Rousseff, however, increased her popularity greatly, rising from 3% in March 2008 to 30% in March 2010. On the May 8, 2010 poll by Vox Populi, she finally surpassed Serra, achieving 37% of the voting intention.

Another potential candidate for the ruling center-left group was Ciro Gomes from the Brazilian Socialist Party, [6] who lost his comfortable second place in polls to Rousseff in May 2009. After that, he maintained an average of 12% of voting intention. On April 27, 2010, Gomes' party declined to launch his candidacy, instead supporting Rousseff. [8] In the left-wing opposition group, Socialism and Freedom Party's Heloísa Helena was the most likely candidate, but her name was withdrawn from polling after she decided to run for a seat in the Senate for Alagoas. [9] Plínio de Arruda Sampaio was her party's candidate for president. [9] Almost simultaneously, Marina Silva left the Workers' Party and joined the Green Party to run for president. [10] Prior to her candidature, she was well known internationally as a defender of the Amazon Rainforest, but was less known in her native Brazil. [6]

Polls

The results displayed in this article excludes results for spontaneous polls (in which cards with the names of likely candidates are not presented to researched voters), due to the significant number of voters that would vote for Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. By law, leaders of all stances of the Executive branch can only be re-elected once.

In September, Vox Populi institute began an unprecedented tracking poll for president, which was intended to last for 36 days until October 2.

First round

Graphic representation of polls up to 29 September 2010. Graph-umfragen-wahlen-brasilien-2010.gif
Graphic representation of polls up to 29 September 2010.
Pollster/client(s)Date(s)
conducted		 Rousseff
PT 		Serra
PSDB 		Silva
PV 		OthersAbst.
Undec.		Lead
2010 election3 Oct46.91%32.61%19.33%1.15%8.64%14.3%
Vox Populi 2 Oct47%26%14%0%13%21%
Ibope 1–2 Oct47%29%16%0%8%18%
Datafolha 1–2 Oct47%29%16%0%8%18%
Vox Populi 1 Oct48%27%12%0%13%21%
Vox Populi 30 Sep49%26%12%0%13%23%
Vox Populi 29 Sep49%26%12%0%13%23%
Datafolha 28–29 Sep47%28%14%0%11%19%
Vox Populi 28 Sep49%25%12%0%14%24%
Datafolha 27 Sep46%28%14%0%12%18%
Vox Populi 27 Sep49%24%13%0%14%25%
CNT/Sensus 26–28 Sep47.5%25.6%11.6%0.0%15.3%21.9%
Vox Populi 26 Sep49%24%12%0%15%25%
Ibope 25–26 Sep50%27%13%0%10%23%
Vox Populi 25 Sep50%23%11%0%16%27%
Vox Populi 24 Sep50%24%10%0%16%26%
Vox Populi 23 Sep51%24%10%0%15%27%
Vox Populi 22 Sep51%24%10%0%15%27%
Ibope 21–23 Sep50%28%12%0%10%22%
Datafolha 21–22 Sep49%28%13%0%10%21%
Vox Populi 21 Sep52%25%9%0%14%27%
Vox Populi 20 Sep53%23%9%0%15%30%
Vox Populi 19 Sep53%24%9%0%14%29%
Vox Populi 18 Sep51%24%9%0%16%27%
Vox Populi 17 Sep51%23%9%0%17%28%
Vox Populi 16 Sep51%23%9%0%17%28%
Vox Populi 15 Sep52%22%9%0%17%30%
Ibope 14–17 Sep51%25%11%0%13%26%
Vox Populi 14 Sep53%22%8%0%17%31%
Datafolha 13–15 Sep51%27%11%0%11%24%
Vox Populi 13 Sep54%22%8%0%16%32%
Vox Populi 12 Sep53%23%9%0%15%30%
Vox Populi 12 Sep52%23%9%0%16%29%
CNT/Sensus 10–12 Sep50.5%26.4%8.9%0.0%14.2%24.1%
Vox Populi 10 Sep53%22%9%0%16%31%
Vox Populi 9 Sep53%21%9%0%17%32%
Datafolha 8–9 Sep50%27%11%0%12%23%
Vox Populi 8 Sep54%21%9%0%15%33%
Vox Populi 7 Sep56%21%8%0%15%35%
Vox Populi 6 Sep55%22%8%0%15%33%
Vox Populi 5 Sep53%24%8%0%15%29%
Vox Populi 4 Sep53%24%8%0%15%29%
Vox Populi 3 Sep52%24%8%0%16%28%
Datafolha 2–3 Sep50%28%10%0%12%22%
Vox Populi 2 Sep51%25%9%0%15%26%
Vox Populi 1 Sep51%25%9%0%15%26%
Ibope 31 Aug–2 Sep51%27%8%0%14%24%
Ibope 24–26 Aug51%27%7%0%15%24%
Datafolha 23–24 Aug49%29%9%0%13%20%
CNT/Sensus 20–22 Aug46.0%28.1%8.1%1.3% [a] 17.8%17.9%
Datafolha 20 Aug47%30%9%0%14%17%
Ibope 12–15 Aug43%32%8%0%17%11%
Datafolha Archived 2010-08-20 at the Wayback Machine 9–12 Aug41%33%10%0%16%8%
Vox Populi 7–10 Aug45%29%8%0%18%16%
Ibope 2–5 Aug39%34%8%0%19%5%
CNT/Sensus 31 Jul–2 Aug41.6%31.6%8.5%4.4% [b] 18.3%10%
Ibope 26–29 Jul39%34%7%0%19%5%
Datafolha 20–23 Jul36%37%10%0%17%1%
Vox Populi 17–20 Aug41%33%8%0%17%8%
Datafolha 30 Jun–1 Jul38%39%10%0%12%1%
Ibope 27–30 Jun39%39%10%0%13%Tie
Vox Populi 24–26 Jun40%35%8%0%17%5%
CNI/Ibope Archived 2012-02-24 at the Wayback Machine 19–21 Jun40%35%9%0%16%5%
Ibope 31 May–3 Jun37%37%9%0%17%Tie
Datafolha 20–21 May37%37%12%0%14%Tie
CNT/Sensus 10–14 May35.7%33.2%8.0%2.2% [c] 17.3%2.5%
Vox Populi 8–13 May38%35%7%0%22%3%
Datafolha 15–16 Apr28%38%10%10% [d] 15%10%
Ibope 13–16 Apr29%36%8%8% [e] 19%7%
CNT/Sensus 5–9 Apr32.4%32.7%8.1%10.1% [f] 16.7%0.3%
Vox Populi Archived 2010-09-29 at the Wayback Machine 30–31 Mar31%34%5%10% [g] 20%3%
Datafolha 25–26 Mar27%36%8%11% [h] 18%9%
Ibope [ usurped ]6–10 Mar30%35%6%11% [h] 18%5%
Datafolha 24–25 Feb28%32%8%12% [i] 19%4%
Ibope [ usurped ]6–9 Feb25%36%8%11% [h] 20%11%
CNT/Sensus 25–29 Jan27.8%33.2%6.8%11.9% [j] 20.3%5.4%
Vox Populi 14–17 Jan27%34%9%11% [h] 19%7%
Datafolha [ usurped ]14–18 Dec 200923%37%8%13% [k] 19%14%
Ibope [ usurped ]26–30 Nov 200917%38%6%13% [k] 25%21%
CNT/Sensus 23 Nov 200921.7%31.8%5.9%17.5% [l] 23.1%10.1%
Vox Populi 11 Nov 200919%36%3%19% [m] 23%17%
CNT/Sensus 8 Sep 200919%39.5%4.8%9.7% [n] 27%20.5%
Vox Populi 18 Aug 200921%30%–29% [o] 20%9%
Datafolha 16 Aug 200917%38%3%26% [p] 18%21%
Ibope [ permanent dead link ]9 Jun 200918%38%–19% [q] 25%20%
Datafolha Archived 2009-12-23 at the Wayback Machine 28 May 200916%38%–25% [r] 21%22%
Datafolha Archived 2009-12-23 at the Wayback Machine 19 Mar 200911%41%–27% [s] 21%25%
Datafolha Archived 2009-12-23 at the Wayback Machine 28 Nov 20088%41%–29% [t] 21%26%
Datafolha Archived 2009-12-23 at the Wayback Machine 27 Mar 20083%38%–34% [u] 25%18%

Second round

Pollster/client(s)Date(s)
conducted		 Rousseff
PT 		Serra
PSDB 		Abst.
Undec.		Lead
2010 election31 Oct56.05%43.95%6.70%12.1%
Vox Populi 30 Oct51%39%10%12%
Datafolha 29–30 Oct51%41%8%10%
CNT/Sensus 28–29 Oct50.3%37.6%12.1%12.7%
Datafolha 28 Oct50%40%10%10%
Ibope 27–30 Oct52%40%8%12%
Datafolha 27 Oct49%38%13%11%
Ibope 26–28 Oct52%39%9%13%
CNT/Sensus 23–25 Oct51.9%36.7%11.4%15.2%
Vox Populi 23–24 Oct49%38%13%11%
Datafolha Archived 2011-07-11 at the Wayback Machine 21 Oct50%40%10%10%
CNT/Sensus 18–19 Oct46.8%41.8%11.4%5.0%
Ibope 17–20 Oct51%40%9%11%
Vox Populi 15–17 Oct51%39%10%12%
Datafolha 14–15 Oct47%41%12%6%
CNT/Sensus 11–13 Oct46.8%42.7%10.54.1%
Ibope Archived 2010-10-16 at the Wayback Machine 11–13 Oct49%43%8%6%
Vox Populi 10–11 Oct48%40%12%8%
Datafolha 8 Oct48%41%11%7%

Notes

  1. ↑ Eymael (PSDC) with 0.3%; Plínio de Arruda (PSOL) with 0.4%; Rui Costa (PCO) with 0.2%; José Maria (PSTU) with 0.4%
  2. ↑ Ivan Pinheiro (PCB) with 0.1%; Eymael (PSDC) with 0.5%; Levy Fidelix (PRTB) with 0.1%; Plínio de Arruda (PSOL) with 1.7%; Rui Costa (PCO) with 0.1%; José Maria (PSTU) with 1.9%
  3. ↑ Eymael (PSDC) with 1.1%; Levy Fidelix (PRTB) with 0.1%; Plínio de Arruda Sampaio (PSOL) with 0.4%; Rui Costa Pimenta (PCO) with 0.2%; José Maria (PSTU) with 0.4%
  4. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 9%; José Maria (PSTU) with 1%
  5. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 8%
  6. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 10.1%
  7. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 10%
  8. 1 2 3 4 Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 11%
  9. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 12%
  10. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 11.9%
  11. 1 2 Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 13%
  12. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 17.5%
  13. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 13%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 6%
  14. ↑ Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 9.7%
  15. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 17%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 12%
  16. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 14%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 12%
  17. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 12%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 7%
  18. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 15%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 10%
  19. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 16%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 11%
  20. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 15%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 14%
  21. ↑ Ciro Gomes (PSB) with 20%; Heloísa Helena (PSOL) with 14%

References

  1. ↑ (in Portuguese) "Confira o calendário eleitoral 2010". Terra.
  2. ↑ Colitt, Raymond. "Key dates in Brazil's 2010 presidential race". Reuters. January 11, 2010.
  3. ↑ Barrionuevo, Alexei. "The Health of a Likely Presidential Candidate Comes Under Brazil's Microscope". The New York Times , May 23, 2009. Accessed June 14, 2009.
  4. ↑ Colitt, Raymond. "Positions of Brazil's leading candidates". Reuters. January 11, 2010.
  5. ↑ Freedom House (July 16, 2009). "Freedom in the World 2009 - Brazil". UNHCR . Archived from the original on July 24, 2011. Retrieved May 14, 2010. In early 1994, Fernando Henrique Cardoso (...) forged a three-party, centre-right coalition around his Brazilian Social Democracy Party (PSDB).
  6. 1 2 3 Colitt, Raymond. "Key names in Brazil's 2010 presidential race". Reuters. December 17, 2010.
  7. ↑ Segrillo, Angelo (2004). "A confusão esquerda-direita no mundo pós-Muro de Berlim" [The left-right confusion in the post-Berlin Wall world]. Dados (in Portuguese). 47: 615–632. doi: 10.1590/S0011-52582004000300006 . ISSN   0011-5258. Most analysts defined PSDB as center-left as of its foundation (...) The story changed after 1994, with the election of PSDB to the Presidency. A rhetoric of overcoming the classical ideological divisions (...) was one of the justifications for the grand parliamentary alliance center and right-wing parties (...). As a matter of fact, after the 1994 election, most analysts starting defining PSDB as a centrist party along with PMDB
  8. ↑ "Ciro Gomes diz que decisão do PSB foi 'erro tático'". 27 April 2010.
  9. 1 2 (in Portuguese) Faria, Tales. "PSol aprova resolução para se afastar de Marina Silva". Último Segundo. December 8, 2009.
  10. ↑ (in Portuguese) Agência Estado. "PV já articula apoio à candidatura de Marina Silva". August 14, 2009. Globo.com. Retrieved on 2009-08-15.
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