Opinion polling for the 2020 Northern Territory general election

Last updated

In the lead-up to the 2020 Northern Territory general election, a number of polling companies conducted opinion polls. [1] These polls collected data on parties' primary vote, leaders' favourability, and individual electoral division results. [2]

Contents

Voting intention

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP CLP TA GRN OTHUND ALP CLP
22 Aug 2020 2020 election 39.4%31.3%12.9%4.5%12.0%—53.3%46.7%
29 Jun 2020uComms [3] [4] 69933.9%29.4%10.7%5.9%7.4%12.7%50.8%49.2%
May–Jun 2020MediaReach [a] [6] [7] 4,00036.2%23%26.8%—14%———
18–24 Mar 2020 Disputed opposition leadership after Territory Alliance surpassed CLP in seat numbers
1 Feb 2020 Lia Finocchiaro becomes CLP leader and leader of the opposition
Sep 2019MediaReach [8] 64529%39%——22%———
31 Aug 2019 Terry Mills announces formation of Territory Alliance
6 Oct 2018Unnamed [b] [9] ———————53%47%
25–27 Aug 2017MediaReach [10] [11] 1,42543%38%——19%—50%50%
27 Aug 2016 2016 election 42.2%31.8%—2.9%23.1%—57.5%42.5%

Leadership approval

Preferred chief minister

DateFirmSample
size		Party leadersNet
Gunner Higgins Mills Unsure
Sep 2019MediaReach [8] 64530%20%38%12%8%
6 Oct 2018Unnamed [b] [9] —————12%
25–27 Aug 2017MediaReach [10] [11] 1,42534%21%—45%13%

Individual seat polling

Araluen

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2CP vote
TA CLP ALP GRN OTHUND TA CLP
22 Aug 2020 2020 election 29.2%38.0%18.1%10.4%4.2%—50.5%49.5%
May–Jun 2020MediaReach [6] [7] 20037%27%20%—3%13%——
18 Mar 2020 Robyn Lambley joins Territory Alliance
27 Aug 2016 2016 election 38.9%36.4%24.7%———58.2%41.8%

Braitling

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2CP vote
CLP ALP TA GRN OTHUND ALP CLP
22 Aug 2020 2020 election 35.2%22.6%11.1%8.6%22.4%—48.7%51.3%
May–Jun 2020MediaReach [6] [7] 20018%30%31%—3%19%——
27 Aug 2016 2016 election 42.8%32.8%—10.1%14.4%—50.3%49.7%

Blain

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP TA CLP OTHUND ALP CLP TA
22 Aug 2020 2020 election 41.4%23.0%35.6%——50.2%49.8%—
May–Jun 2020MediaReach [6] [7] 20025%39%23%9%4%———
31 Aug 2019 Terry Mills announces formation of Territory Alliance
27 Aug 2016 2016 election 37.3%31.3%25.7%5.6%—48.6%—51.4%

Johnston

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2PP vote
ALP CLP GRN TA OTHUND ALP CLP TA
22 Aug 2020 2020 election 45.3%19.7%17.2%14.6%3.2%—66.5%33.5%—
May–Jun 2020MediaReach [6] [7] 20035%12%—22%14%16%———
29 Feb 2020 2020 by-election 29.9%16.3%17.2%22.1%14.5%—52.6%—47.4%
31 Jan 2020 Ken Vowles resigns as member for Johnston
27 Aug 2016 2016 election 51.4%31.8%17.2%———64.7%35.3%—

Mulka

DateFirmSample
size		Primary vote 2CP vote
ALP IND CLP OTHUND IND ALP
22 Aug 2020 2020 election —————55.0%45.0%
May–Jun 2020MediaReach [6] [7] 20019%31%11%9%30%——
27 Aug 2016 2016 election ( Nhulunbuy )44.4%41.5%13.1%1.0%—50.1%49.9%

Notes

  1. ↑ Estimated by Kevin Bonham based on individual seat polling. [5]
  2. 1 2 Commissioned by the Labor Party. [9]

References

  1. ↑ "Miscellany: NT poll, federal parliament seat entitlements, 2019 election book". The Poll Bludger. 8 July 2020. Archived from the original on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
  2. ↑ "Grim poll numbers reveal axe may be ready to swing for NT Labor govt". Sky News Australia. 4 September 2019. Archived from the original on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
  3. ↑ "FINAL RESULTS" (PDF). uComms. 30 June 2020. Archived from the original (PDF) on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
  4. ↑ "Media Release: Polling shows Territorians want action to protect our Top End Coasts". Top End Coasts. 6 July 2020. Archived from the original on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
  5. ↑ "Divergent Polling In The Northern Territory". Dr Kevin Bonham. 10 July 2020. Archived from the original on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cunningham, Matt (20 June 2020). "Territory election on a knife's edge, shock polling shows". The Daily Telegraph. NT News. Archived from the original on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Cunningham, Matt (20 June 2020). "NT election shaping up to be a three-horse race". The Daily Telegraph. NT News. Archived from the original on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
  8. 1 2 Cunningham, Matt (4 September 2019). "Poll shock: Labor massive battle to hold power at next year's Territory election". The Daily Telegraph. Archived from the original on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
  9. 1 2 3 Walsh, Christopher (6 October 2018). "Gunner Government leads two-party preferred contest, but fails to pick up public support". ABC News. Archived from the original on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
  10. 1 2 Walsh, Christopher (29 August 2017). "Gunner Government popularity weakened significantly in year since NT election win". The Daily Telegraph. NT News. Archived from the original on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
  11. 1 2 Walsh, Christopher (30 August 2017). "Chief Minister Michael Gunner admits there's room for improvement after first year in government". The Daily Telegraph. NT News. Archived from the original on 20 November 2025. Retrieved 20 November 2025.
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