2020 Northern Territory general election

Last updated

2020 Northern Territory general election
Flag of the Northern Territory.svg
  2016 22 August 2020 2024  

All 25 seats in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
Turnout74.9% (Increase2.svg 0.9 pp)
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Michael Gunner shakes hands with Adm. Harry Harris (cropped).jpg
Lia Finocchiaro Profile (cropped).jpg
Terry Mills in 2005.jpg
Leader Michael Gunner Lia Finocchiaro Terry Mills
Party Labor Country Liberal Territory Alliance
Leader since20 April 20151 February 2020November 2019
Leader's seat Fannie Bay Spillett Blain
(lost seat)
Last election18 seats2 seatsDid not exist
Seats before1723
Seats won1481
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 3Increase2.svg 6Decrease2.svg 2
Popular vote40,29132,02113,184
Percentage39.43%31.34%12.90%
SwingDecrease2.svg 2.76Decrease2.svg 0.46Increase2.svg 12.90
TPP 53.3%46.7%
TPP swingDecrease2.svg 3.9Increase2.svg 3.9

2020 Northern Territory general election - Vote Strength.svg
2020 NT election - holds and gains.svg

Chief Minister before election

Michael Gunner
Labor

Elected Chief Minister

Michael Gunner
Labor

The 2020 Northern Territory general election was held on 22 August 2020 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.

Contents

Members were elected through full preferential instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates, after the optional preferential voting system introduced for the 2016 election was abolished by the Electoral Legislation Amendment Act 2019 in April 2019. [1] The election was conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission, an independent body answerable to Parliament.

The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP) majority government, led by Chief Minister Michael Gunner, won a second consecutive four-year term of government. It defeated the centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP) opposition, led by Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro, and the regionalist big-tent Territory Alliance (TA) party, led by former Chief Minister Terry Mills.

ABC election analyst Antony Green called the election for the Labor Party nearly three hours after the polls closed. [2] [3] At the time it was not known if the party would claim a majority of seats, though on 24 August the ABC projected Labor had retained majority government. [4] When the counting of votes concluded, Labor finished with 14 seats, enough for a two-seat majority on the floor of the Assembly. The Country Liberals won 8 seats, a gain of six from their landslide loss in the previous election, whilst 2 independents and 1 Territory Alliance candidate were elected. [5] The new Gunner Ministry was sworn in on 8 September 2020. [6]

Background

Previous election

At the 2016 election, the one-term incumbent Country Liberal Party (CLP) minority government, led by Chief Minister Adam Giles, was defeated by the Labor Party Opposition, led by Opposition Leader Michael Gunner. The CLP suffered the worst defeat of a sitting government in the history of the Territory, and one of the worst defeats of a sitting government in the history of Australia. It was the first time that a sitting Northern Territory government was defeated after only one term. From 11 seats at dissolution (and 16 after the 2012 election), the CLP suffered the worst election performance in its history, winning only two seats. Labor won 18 seats, in the process winning the third-largest majority government in Territory history. Independents won five seats. With only two members in the CLP caucus, Gary Higgins became opposition leader and CLP leader while Lia Finocchiaro became deputy CLP leader on 2 September. Although the independent MPs outnumbered the CLP MPs, on official advice the CLP was recognised as the official opposition. [7]

Additionally, Giles lost his seat of Braitling to Labor, making him only the second Chief Minister/Majority Leader and the third CLP leader to lose their seat at an election. Along with the seat of Katherine, the election represented the first time Labor had won a seat in Alice Springs or Katherine. [8]

With the overall result beyond doubt, Gunner had himself, Natasha Fyles, and Nicole Manison sworn in as an interim three-person government on 31 August until the full Gunner Ministry could be sworn in on 12 September. [9] [10] [11]

The position of Speaker of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly had been held by former CLP-turned-independent MP Kezia Purick since 23 October 2012. Despite Labor's massive majority following the 2016 election, the incoming Labor government re-appointed Purick as Speaker. [12]

Labor expulsions

The composition of the Assembly was unchanged for over two years, with Labor Party holding 18 seats, the Country Liberal Party two and the remaining five by independents. In December 2018, the Labor Government dismissed three sitting members of the parliamentary party; the Aboriginal Affairs Minister Ken Vowles, Assistant Minister Jeff Collins and backbencher Scott McConnell. [13] The trio were dismissed after publicly criticising the government's handling of the territory's long-term economic situation, following a report finding the budget to be in "structural deficit" with expenditure struggling to cover previous borrowings and day-to-day costs. [14] They consequently became independents and sat on the crossbench. McConnell later announced he would not re-contest his seat at the election, though did end up running for the adjacent seat of Braitling. [15]

Territory Alliance founding

In August 2019, Terry Mills, the independent member for the seat of Blain, announced the formation of a new regionalist big tent party known as Territory Alliance. [16] Mills had previously been the leader of the CLP and was Chief Minister of the Northern Territory following the Country Liberal Party's (CLP) victory at the 2012 election. He was usurped for the leadership of the party by Adam Giles only six months into his Chief Ministership, defeated 11–5 in a party-room ballot. With Mills' presence in the Assembly, the new Territory Alliance held one seat. This increased to three seats in March 2020 when Jeff Collins (expelled by Labor in December 2018) and Robyn Lambley (the former deputy CLP leader who was re-elected as an independent in 2016) announced they had joined the party, taking Territory Alliance's representation in the Assembly to three seats. [17] With more members in the Assembly than the CLP, Alliance sought to claim official opposition status, though they were defeated 5–3 in a secret Assembly ballot of non-Government MPs and the CLP retained opposition status, with Lia Finocchiaro remaining as Opposition Leader. [18] [19]

Johnston by-election

With Scott McConnell having announced his retirement at the election and Jeff Collins becoming a member of the Territory Alliance, Ken Vowles, the remaining member of the Labor trio to be expelled by the party, announced his immediate resignation from the Assembly in November 2019. [20] This decision necessitated a by-election in the seat of Johnston to replace Vowles. The by-election was held on 29 February 2020 and was won by Labor candidate Joel Bowden, who claimed 52.6% of the two-candidate preferred vote. Labor's primary vote collapsed more than 21 points, making the seat a marginal contest at the general election. The Territory Alliance candidate usurped the Greens and CLP candidates into second place (47.4% of the two-candidate preferred vote), with the CLP primary vote dropping by more than 15 points and the party finishing in fourth place.

Election date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms, with elections to be held on the fourth Saturday of August every four years. [21]

Key dates

Key dates in relation to the election were: [22]

Redistribution

Map of electoral boundaries used at the 2020 election NT Electoral Boundaries 2020.png
Map of electoral boundaries used at the 2020 election

A boundary redistribution for electoral divisions in the Northern Territory commenced on 27 February 2019, with the boundary commission releasing its report of the final boundaries on 4 September 2019. [23]

Pendulum

Government

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Labor (16)
Official Opposition

Country Liberal (2)
Crossbench

Territory Alliance (3)

Independent (4) Northern Territory Legislative Assembly, 23 June 2020.svg
Government
  Labor (16)
Official Opposition
  Country Liberal (2)
Crossbench
  Territory Alliance (3)
  Independent (4)
Labor seats
Marginal
Katherine Sandra Nelson ALP1.6
Brennan Tony Sievers ALP2.6
Port Darwin Paul Kirby ALP2.8
Braitling Dale Wakefield ALP3.0
Drysdale Eva Lawler ALP5.2
Fairly safe
Arafura Lawrence Costa ALP7.3
Safe
Arnhem Selena Uibo ALP10.5
Sanderson Kate Worden ALP10.5
Casuarina Lauren Moss ALP11.5
Karama Ngaree Ah Kit ALP12.3
Fannie Bay Michael Gunner ALP12.5
Johnston Joel Bowden ALP15.7
Barkly Gerry McCarthy ALP15.9
Wanguri Nicole Manison ALP19.9
Gwoja Scott McConnell IND22.2
Nightcliff Natasha Fyles ALP26.7
Country Liberal seats
Marginal
Daly Gary Higgins CLP1.7
Namatjira Chansey Paech ALP2.0
Safe
Spillett Lia Finocchiaro CLP15.3
Territory Alliance seats
Marginal
Blain Terry Mills TA1.4 v ALP
Fong Lim Jeff Collins TA5.6 (ALP v CLP)
Fairly safe
Araluen Robyn Lambley TA8.6 v CLP
Independent seats
Mulka Yingiya Mark Guyula IND0.1 v ALP
Nelson Gerry Wood IND23.0 v CLP
Goyder Kezia Purick IND25.3 v CLP

Notes

  • This pre-election pendulum is based on post-redistribution estimates of margins calculated by ABC election analyst Antony Green. [26]
  • Members listed in italics are retiring at the 2020 election.

Post-election pendulum

Labor seats
Marginal
Blain Mark Turner ALP0.2
Arnhem Selena Uibo ALP1.6 v IND
Port Darwin Paul Kirby ALP2.1
Fong Lim Mark Monaghan ALP2.6
Arafura Lawrence Costa ALP3.6
Fairly safe
Drysdale Eva Lawler ALP7.9
Fannie Bay Michael Gunner ALP9.6
Karama Ngaree Ah Kit ALP9.8
Safe
Casuarina Lauren Moss ALP15.9
Gwoja Chansey Paech ALP16.2
Johnston Joel Bowden ALP16.5
Wanguri Nicole Manison ALP17.3
Sanderson Kate Worden ALP19.3
Nightcliff Natasha Fyles ALP24.3
Country Liberal seats
Marginal
Barkly Steve Edgington CLP0.1
Namatjira Bill Yan CLP0.3
Brennan Marie-Clare Boothby CLP1.2
Daly Ian Sloan CLP1.2
Braitling Joshua Burgoyne CLP1.3
Katherine Jo Hersey CLP2.3
Fairly safe
Nelson Gerard Maley CLP8.3 v IND
Safe
Spillett Lia Finocchiaro CLP15.0
Crossbench seats
Araluen Robyn Lambley TA0.5 v CLP
Mulka Yingiya Mark Guyula IND5.0 v ALP
Goyder Kezia Purick IND6.8 v CLP

Registered parties

At the time of the election, eight parties were registered with the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC). [27]

Opinion polling

Voting intention

DateFirmPrimary vote
ALPCLPTAIndOTH
29 June 2020uComms [28] 34%29%11%13%*
September 2019MediaReach [29] 29%39%22%10%
2016 election 42.2%31.8%18.8%7.2%
* Remainder were "uncommitted".

Retiring MLAs

Labor

Country Liberal

Independent

Candidates

There were 111 candidates who nominated for the election—the second-highest number of candidates in a Territory election, just under the 115 who nominated in 2016. [34]

Sitting members are listed in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour. Where there is possible confusion, an asterisk is used.

ElectorateHeld by Labor candidate CLP candidate Territory Alliance candidate Greens candidateOther candidates
 
Arafura Labor Lawrence Costa Gibson IllortaminniGeorge LaughtonTristan Mungatopi (Ind)
Araluen Independent Jackson AnkersDamien Ryan Robyn Lambley Bernard HickeyDomenico Pecorari (AFP)
Wayne Wright (Ind)
Arnhem Labor Selena Uibo Jerry AmatoIan Mongunu Gumbula (Ind)
Lance Lawrence (Ind)
Barkly Labor Sid Vashist Steve Edgington Gadrian Hoosan (Ind)
Daniel Mulholland (Ind)
Blain Independent Mark Turner Matthew Kerle Terry Mills
Braitling Labor Dale Wakefield Joshua Burgoyne Dale McIverChris TomlinsMarli Banks (AFP)
Kim Hopper (Ind)
Scott McConnell (-)
Brennan Labor Tony Sievers Marie-Clare Boothby Abraham Mbemap Peter Chandler (Ind)
Casuarina Labor Lauren Moss Tony SchellingDanial KellyKendall Trudgen
Daly CLP Anthony Venes Ian Sloan Regina McCarthyWill KempMick Denigan (Ind)
Drysdale Labor Eva Lawler Leanne ButlerFiona LynchDanielle Eveleigh (Ind)
Brendan Killalea (Ind)
Lash Lisson (BFFCPW)
Raj Samson (Ind. UAP)
Fannie Bay Labor Michael Gunner Tracey HayesRebecca JenningsPeter RobertsonMark Mackenzie (Ind)
Fong Lim Labor Mark Monaghan Kylie Bonanni Jeff Collins Amye Un (Ind)
Goyder Independent Mick TaylorPhil BattyeRachael WrightKaren FletcherPauline Cass (Ind)
Trevor Jenkins (-)
Kezia Purick * (Ind)
Ted Warren (Ind)
Gwoja Labor Chansey Paech Phillip AliceKenny Lechleitner (AFP)
Johnston Labor Joel Bowden Gary HaslettSteven KloseAiya Goodrich CarttlingJosh Thomas (Ind)
Karama Labor Ngaree Ah Kit Brian O'GallagherCaleb Cardno
Katherine Labor Kate Ganley Jo Hersey Melanie UsherClinton Booth (Ind)
Mulka Independent Lynne Walker Yingiya Mark Guyula (Ind)
Namatjira CLP Sheralee Taylor Bill Yan Matt PatersonNikki McCoyCatherine Satour (AFP)
Tony Willis (Ind)
Nelson Independent Steve Asher Gerard Maley Andy HarleyBeverley Ratahi (Ind)
Nightcliff Labor Natasha Fyles Steve DohertyMelita McKinnonBillee McGinleyShelley Landmark (AJP)
Port Darwin Labor Paul Kirby Toby GeorgeGary StrachanTimothy ParishLeah Potter (Ind)
Sanderson Labor Kate Worden Derek MaygerAmelia Nuku
Spillett CLP Tristan Sloan Lia Finocchiaro Vanessa Mounsey
Wanguri Labor Nicole Manison Jed HansenMichael Best

Results

Map of results by electorate. 2020 Northern Territory general election - Results.svg
Map of results by electorate.
14218
ALPIndTACLP

Results summary

Legislative Assembly (IRV) – (CV) [35] [36]
Territoire du Nord Assemblee legislative 2020.svg
PartyVotes%+/-Seats+/-
  Labor 40,29139.43Decrease2.svg 2.7614Decrease2.svg 4
  Country Liberal 32,02131.34Decrease2.svg 0.468Increase2.svg 6
  Territory Alliance 13,18412.90New1Increase2.svg 1
  Independents 10,97710.74Decrease2.svg 8.092Decrease2.svg 3
  Greens 4,4534.46Increase2.svg 1.490Steady2.svg
  Australian Federation 9420.92New0Steady2.svg
  Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water 2260.22Decrease2.svg 3.36 [lower-alpha 1] 0Steady2.svg
  Animal Justice 780.08New0Steady2.svg
 Formal votes102,17296.54−1.46
 Informal votes3,6613.46+1.46
 Total 105,83310025
 Registered voters / turnout141,25574.94+0.92
Two-party-preferred vote [lower-alpha 2] [37]
  Labor 53.3Decrease2.svg 3.9
  Country Liberal 46.7Increase2.svg 3.9
Popular vote
Labor
39.4%
Country Liberal
31.3%
Territory Alliance
12.9%
Greens
4.4%
Independents
10.7%
Others
1.2%
Two-party preferred vote
Labor
53.3%
Country Liberal
46.7%
Seats
Labor
56.0%
Country Liberal
32.0%
Territory Alliance
4.0%
Independents
8.0%

The CLP regained a number of seats in traditional heartlands that it had lost to Labor in 2016, with the party winning back Braitling, Brennan and Katherine from the ALP. It also won the outback seats of Barkly and Namatjira by narrow margins. The ALP maintained its dominance of the Darwin/Palmerston area, holding all but two of the region's seats–accounting for almost all of its majority. The ALP managed to consolidate some of its gains from 2016. It retained Port Darwin and Drysdale, two seats it had only won once before 2016, while gaining Blain, a seat it had never won before. The ALP also won a majority of the two-party vote for only the third time ever in a Territory election.

Both incumbent independent MLAs running for reelection, Yingiya Mark Guyula and Kezia Purick, retained their seats, but long-serving independent Gerry Wood was succeeded by a CLP candidate in Nelson. The Territory Alliance won a single seat, with Robyn Lambley narrowly holding her seat of Araluen; party leader Terry Mills and Jeff Collins both lost their seats.

Seats changing hands

Members in italics did not re-contest their seats at this election. Margins are notional estimates by Antony Green. [38]

SeatPre-electionSwingPost-election
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Barkly Labor Gerry McCarthy 15.916.00.1 Steve Edgington Country Liberal
Blain Territory Alliance Terry Mills 1.4 (IND)N/A0.2 Mark Turner Labor
Braitling Labor Dale Wakefield 3.04.31.3 Joshua Burgoyne Country Liberal
Brennan Labor Tony Sievers 2.63.81.2 Marie-Clare Boothby Country Liberal
Fong Lim Territory Alliance Jeff Collins 5.6 (ALP)−3.02.6 Mark Monaghan Labor
Katherine Labor Sandra Nelson 1.63.92.3 Jo Hersey Country Liberal
Namatjira Labor Chansey Paech −2.0*−1.70.3 Bill Yan Country Liberal
Nelson Independent Gerry Wood 23.031.28.3 Gerard Maley Country Liberal

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Notes

  1. Figure based on 2016 total for the 1 Territory Party, from which Ban Fracking Fix Crime Protect Water was renamed.
  2. Estimate by Antony Green based on the 24 seats with a two-party count between Labor and CLP. Mulka is excluded as the CLP did not run in that seat.