2024 Northern Territory general election

Last updated

2024 Northern Territory general election
Flag of the Northern Territory.svg
←  2020 24 August 20242028 →
All 25 seats in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Opinion polls
  Labor Placeholder.png Lia Finocchiaro Profile (cropped).jpg
Leader Eva Lawler Lia Finocchiaro
Party Labor Country Liberal
Leader since 21 December 2023 1 February 2020
Leader's seat Drysdale Spillett
Last election14 seats, 39.43%8 seats, 31.34%
Current seats14 [lower-alpha 1] 7 [lower-alpha 2]
Seats neededSteady2.svgIncrease2.svg 6
2024 Northern Territory general election.svg
Incumbent Chief Minister

Eva Lawler
Labor



The 2024 Northern Territory general election is scheduled to be held on 24 August 2024 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.

Contents

Members will be elected through full preferential instant-runoff voting in single-member electorates. The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP) majority government, led by Eva Lawler since December 2023, will attempt to win a third consecutive four-year term of government, similar to that seen previously in Queensland and Victoria, which will be challenged by the centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP) opposition, currently led by Opposition Leader Lia Finocchiaro.

The election will be conducted by the Northern Territory Electoral Commission.

For the first time in history, both major parties will go into the election with female leaders. Additionally, both leaders are from the city of Palmerston; indeed, before her move to the then-new seat of Spillett in 2016, Finocchiaro was the member for Drysdale (the seat Lawler won in 2016 after Finocchiaro transferred to Spillett).

Background

In the event both current leaders remain in place, this will be the first election in the Northern Territory where both major political parties are led by women, and the third in any Australian state or territory after the 1995 ACT election and 2020 Queensland election.

Previous election

At the 2020 election, the Labor government led by Chief Minister Michael Gunner was re-elected with a reduced majority, winning 14 of the 25 seats in the parliament. The Country Liberals (CLP) won 8 seats, whilst the Territory Alliance party won 1 seat and a further 2 seats were won by independents.

Parliamentary composition

Robyn Lambley, the Territory Alliance's sole representative in the parliament, left the party in October 2020 to sit as an independent. [2] Labor MLA Mark Turner was expelled from the party-room caucus in February 2021 due to what he acknowledged as an "inappropriate relationship" with a Labor Party staffer, though he remained a Labor-designated member in the assembly. [3]

A by-election was held for the seat of Daly on 11 September 2021, caused by the resignation of CLP member Ian Sloan due to health and personal issues. Labor candidate Dheran Young won the seat, the first time that an incumbent government has won a seat from the opposition in the history of the Legislative Assembly. [4]

On 10 May 2022, Chief Minister and Labor leader Michael Gunner announced his immediate resignation from both positions, citing his desire to spend more time with his family following the birth of his and his wife's second son on 29 April. [5] Following a party-room meeting on 13 May, Labor minister Natasha Fyles was elected unopposed to the leadership, and was sworn in as the new Chief Minister later day. [6] Gunner resigned from the seat of Fannie Bay on 27 July and a by-election was held on 20 August 2022. Labor retained the seat at the by-election, with candidate Brent Potter victorious despite recording a 7 per cent swing against the party. [7]

On 17 December 2022, Labor MP for Arafura Lawrence Costa died. This triggered a by-election which was held on 18 March 2023. Manuel Brown retained the seat for Labor with a 15.6% swing towards the party on the two-party-preferred result.

In December 2023, it was revealed that Fyles holds 754 undeclared shares in South32, a company that owns a manganese mine on Groote Eylandt. Fyles faced further conflict of interest allegations and calls to resign, due to Fyles' decision earlier in 2023 to not investigate health impacts from the Groote Eylandt mine, with Leader of the Opposition Lia Finocchiaro calling her actions a 'profound betrayal of public trust'. [8] [9] As a result of the controversy, Fyles resigned on 19 December 2023. [9]

The Northern Territory Legislative Assembly has four independents all of which are in reasonably marginal seats, this increased by one following the removal of Mark Turner from the Labor caucus.

Redistribution

A map showing the first proposal of redistribution. 2024 Northern Territory general election (draft redistributions).jpg
A map showing the first proposal of redistribution.

The first redistribution proposal was published on 23 May 2023. [10]

Election date

The parliament has fixed four-year terms, with elections to be held on the fourth Saturday of August every four years. [11]

Pre-election pendulum

Government seats (14)
Marginal
Arnhem Selena Uibo ALP1.6 v IND
Port Darwin Paul Kirby ALP2.1
Fannie Bay Brent Potter [lower-alpha 3] ALP2.2 [lower-alpha 4]
Fong Lim Mark Monaghan ALP2.6
Fairly safe
Daly Dheran Young [lower-alpha 5] ALP7.3 [lower-alpha 6]
Drysdale Eva Lawler ALP7.9
Karama Ngaree Ah Kit ALP9.8
Safe
Casuarina Lauren Moss ALP15.9
Gwoja Chansey Paech ALP16.2
Johnston Joel Bowden ALP16.5
Wanguri Nicole Manison ALP17.3
Very safe
Arafura Manuel Brown [lower-alpha 7] ALP19.1 [lower-alpha 8]
Sanderson Kate Worden ALP19.3
Nightcliff Natasha Fyles ALP24.3
Opposition seats (7)
Marginal
Barkly Steve Edgington CLP0.1
Namatjira Bill Yan CLP0.3
Brennan Marie-Clare Boothby CLP1.2
Braitling Joshua Burgoyne CLP1.3
Katherine Jo Hersey CLP2.3
Fairly safe
Nelson Gerard Maley CLP8.3 v IND
Safe
Spillett Lia Finocchiaro CLP15.0
Crossbench seats (4)
Blain Mark Turner IND [lower-alpha 9] 0.2 (ALP v CLP)
Araluen Robyn Lambley IND0.5 v CLP
Mulka Yingiya Mark Guyula IND5.0 v ALP
Goyder Kezia Purick IND6.8 v CLP

Registered parties

Five parties are currently registered with the Northern Territory Electoral Commission (NTEC). [12]

Candidates and retiring MLAs

Retiring MLAs

The following members announced that they were not contesting the 2024 election:

Labor

Independent

Candidates

Finocchiaro announced the first CLP candidates in May 2023. [16]

SeatHeld by Labor candidate CLP candidate Greens candidate Federation candidateOther candidates
Arafura Labor Manuel Brown Yanja Thompson
Araluen Independent Hugo Wells Robyn Lambley (Ind)
Arnhem Labor Selena Uibo
Barkly CLP Steve Edgington
Blain Independent Danielle EveleighMatthew Kerle Mark Turner (Ind)
Braitling CLP Joshua Burgoyne Asta Hill
Brennan CLP Tony Sievers Marie-Clare Boothby
Casuarina Labor Lauren Moss Khoda Patel
Daly Labor Dheran Young Kris Civitarese [16]
Drysdale Labor Eva Lawler Clinton Howe
Fannie Bay Labor Brent Potter Laurie ZioSuki Dorras-Walker
Fong Lim Labor Mark Monaghan Tanzil Rahman [17] Amye Un (Ind)
Goyder Independent Andrew MackayBelinda Kolstad (Ind)
Gwoja Labor Chansey Paech Jarrod Jupurula Williams
Johnston Labor Joel Bowden Justine Davis (Ind)
Karama Labor Ngaree Ah Kit Brian O'Gallagher
Katherine CLP Nick Lovering Jo Hersey
Mulka Independent Yingiya Mark Guyula (Ind)
Namatjira CLP Bill Yan [16]
Nelson CLP Gerard Maley
Nightcliff Labor Natasha Fyles Helen SecretaryKat McNamara
Port Darwin Labor Brian Manning [18] Robyn Cahill
Sanderson Labor Kate Worden Jinson Anto Charls
Spillett CLP Caleb Burke Lia Finocchiaro [16]
Wanguri Labor Shlok SharmaOly Carlson

Disendorsed candidates

PartyCandidateSeatDisendorsedReason for disendorsement
Greens Peltherre Chris Tomlins Araluen 8 March 2024Disendorsed for spreading COVID-19 misinformation and antisemitic conspiracy theories. [19]

Opinion polling

Voting intention

DateFirmPrimary voteTPP [lower-alpha 10]
ALP CLP Ind GRN SFF OTH ALPCLP
16–18 November 2023Redbridge [21] 19.7%40.6%14%13.1%9.4%2.4% [lower-alpha 11] 43.5%56.5%
2020 election 39.4%31.3%10.7%4.5%N/A14.1% [lower-alpha 12] 53.3%46.7%

Notes

  1. ↑ On 18 February 2021, Mark Turner, the member for Blain, was expelled from the Labor Party caucus but remained a rank-and-file member of the party, although he sits on the crossbench, bringing Labor's seat total to thirteen. However, Labor won the seat of Daly from the Country Liberal Party at the 2021 Daly by-election on 11 September 2021, bringing their seat total back to fourteen. Turner was later expelled from the party completely. [1]
  2. ↑ The Country Liberal Party lost the electorate of Daly to Labor at a by-election in 2021.
  3. ↑ Brent Potter was elected at the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election after the resignation of former Chief Minister Michael Gunner
  4. ↑ The margin after the 2022 Fannie Bay by-election is 2.2%. The 2020 election margin was 9.6%
  5. ↑ Dheran Young was elected at the 2021 Daly by-election after the resignation of Ian Sloan
  6. ↑ The margin after the 2021 Daly by-election is 7.3% The 2020 election margin was 1.2% for the Country Liberal Party
  7. ↑ Manuel Brown was elected at the 2023 Arafura by-election after the death of Lawrence Costa
  8. ↑ The margin after the 2023 Arafura by-election is 19.1%. The 2020 election margin was 3.6%.
  9. ↑ Mark Turner was expelled from the Labor Party caucus in 2021 and from the party completely in 2023. [1]
  10. ↑ The TPP estimates have been manually calculated based on preference flows. [20]
  11. ↑ Animal Justice Party 2.4%
  12. ↑ Includes the now defunct, Territory Alliance, who were a 12.90% share of this figure.

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Country Liberal Party</span> Northern Territory political party

The Country Liberal Party of the Northern Territory (CLP), commonly known as the Country Liberals, is a centre-right political party in Australia's Northern Territory. In local politics, it operates in a two-party system with the Australian Labor Party (ALP). It also contests federal elections as an affiliate of the Liberal Party of Australia and National Party of Australia, the two partners in the federal coalition.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chief Minister of the Northern Territory</span> Head of the Northern Territory

The chief minister of the Northern Territory is the head of government of the Northern Territory. The office is the equivalent of a state premier. When the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly was created in 1974, the head of government was officially known as majority leader. This title was used in the first parliament (1974–1977) and the first eighteen months of the second. When self-government was granted the Northern Territory in 1978, the title of the head of government became chief minister.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dave Tollner</span> Australian politician

David William Tollner is an Australian politician. He was the Country Liberal Party member for Solomon in the Australian House of Representatives from 2001 to 2007, and then served in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly as the member for Fong Lim from 2008 to 2016. He was the Deputy Chief Minister of the Northern Territory under chief minister Adam Giles from 2013 to 2014. During his time in federal parliament, he sat with the Liberal Party.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Terry Mills (Australian politician)</span> Australian politician

Terence Kennedy Mills is an Australian politician. He served as chief minister of the Northern Territory from 2012 to 2013 and was leader of the Country Liberal Party (CLP) from 2003 to 2005 and 2008 to 2012.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Michael Gunner</span> Australian politician

Michael Patrick Francis Gunner is an Australian former politician who was the 11th Chief Minister of the Northern Territory from 2016 to 2022. He was a Labor member of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly, holding the seat of Fannie Bay in Darwin from the retirement of then Chief Minister Clare Martin at the 2008 election until his resignation in July 2022.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2016 Northern Territory general election</span>

The 2016 Northern Territory general election was held on Saturday 27 August 2016 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lia Finocchiaro</span> Australian politician (born 1984)

Lia Emele Finocchiaro is an Australian politician. She has been a Country Liberal Party member of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly for the seat of Spillett since her election in 2016. She became Leader of the Opposition in the Northern Territory after the resignation of Gary Higgins on 1 February 2020. She was previously the member for Drysdale from 2012 to 2016.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Natasha Fyles</span> Australian politician

Natasha Kate Fyles is an Australian politician and former teacher who served as the 12th Chief Minister of the Northern Territory and Minister for Health. She was the leader of the Northern Territory branch of the Australian Labor Party (ALP) from May 2022 until her resignation in December 2023. She is a member of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly (MLA) for the division of Nightcliff, a position she has held since August 2012. She previously served as 22nd attorney-general of the Northern Territory and the territory’s minister for Justice from 2016 to 2020.

Gary John Higgins is an Australian former politician. A member of the Country Liberal Party, he was elected to represent the seat of Daly in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly at the 2012 election. After the 2016 election, the CLP was reduced to only two members in the Legislative Assembly, with Higgins becoming party leader and Leader of the Opposition. Following health problems, he resigned both positions in favour of Lia Finocchiaro in February 2020, and retired at the 2020 election.

This is a list of electoral division results for the Northern Territory 2012 General Election.

Eva Dina Lawler is an Australian politician who is currently the 13th Chief Minister of the Northern Territory from the 21st of December 2023. She is a Labor member of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly since 2016, representing the electorate of Drysdale. She was Minister for Education in the Gunner Ministry from September 2016 until June 2018, when she was made Minister for Environment and Natural Resources and Minister for Infrastructure, Planning and Logistics.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">First Gunner ministry</span> Government ministry

The First Gunner Ministry was the first ministry of the 11th Chief Minister of the Northern Territory, Michael Gunner. It came into operation on 31 August 2016, succeeding the Giles Country Liberal ministry, and ended on 7 September 2020, succeeded by the Second Gunner Ministry.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2020 Northern Territory general election</span>

The 2020 Northern Territory general election was held on 22 August 2020 to elect all 25 members of the Legislative Assembly in the unicameral Northern Territory Parliament.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Territory Labor Party</span> Northern Territory branch of the Australian Labor Party

The Territory Labor Party, officially known as the Australian Labor Party (Northern Territory Branch) and commonly referred to simply as Territory Labor, is the Northern Territory branch of the Australian Labor Party. It is the current ruling party in the Northern Territory and is led by Natasha Fyles, who has concurrently served as chief minister of the Northern Territory since 2022, and previously Michael Gunner from 2016 to 2022.

This is a list of members of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly from 2020 to 2024, as elected at the 2020 election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Mark Turner (politician)</span> Australian politician

Mark Paul Michael Turner is an Australian politician and former Northern Territory Police negotiator. He was elected as the Labor member for the electoral division of Blain in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly at the 2020 Northern Territory election.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2022 Fannie Bay by-election</span> By-election in Northern Territory, Australia

A by-election in the seat of Fannie Bay in the Northern Territory was held on 20 August 2022, following the resignation of Michael Gunner, the MLA for Fannie Bay and former chief minister, on 27 July 2022. Early voting started on Monday 8 August.

Brent Potter is an Australian politician, representing the electoral division of Fannie Bay in the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly since 20 August 2022.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">2023 Arafura by-election</span>

The 2023 Arafura by-election was held on Saturday, 18 March 2023 to elect the next member of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly for the electoral division of Arafura. The by-election was triggered by the death of incumbent Labor MP Lawrence Costa, who died on 17 December 2022 and had a state funeral held for him on 1 March. The election was won by Labor candidate Manuel Brown. Chief Minister and NT Labor leader Natasha Fyles declared victory after two hours of counting.

A leadership election was held in May 2022 to determine the successor to Michael Gunner as leader of the Territory Labor Party and Chief Minister of the Northern Territory. Gunner announced his pending resignation on 10 May, following the birth of his second son and announcement of the 2022/23 Northern Territory budget. The leadership was confirmed unopposed; Natasha Fyles was elected as Leader, with Nicole Manison, a member of the right faction, remaining as Deputy Leader.

References

  1. 1 2 "NT politician Mark Turner expelled from Labor Party". ABC News. 8 June 2023.
  2. ↑ James, Felicity (21 October 2020). "Territory Alliance party ousts Robyn Lambley, leaving it with no seats in Parliament". ABC News. Australian Broadcasting Corporation. Retrieved 27 October 2020.
  3. ↑ Jane Gibson (18 February 2021). "Blain MLA Mark Turner exiled from NT Labor caucus as staffer resigns over scandal". ABC News.
  4. ↑ "Results - 2021 Division of Daly - by-election". Northern Territory Electoral Commission. 24 September 2021. Archived from the original on 27 February 2022. Retrieved 27 February 2022.
  5. ↑ "Northern Territory Chief Minister Michael Gunner to resign". ABC News. 10 May 2022. Retrieved 10 May 2022.
  6. ↑ "Natasha Fyles sworn in as Northern Territory Chief Minister, replacing Michael Gunner". ABC News. 13 May 2022.
  7. ↑ "VIDEO: Labor's Brent Potter wins Fannie Bay by-election". ABC News. 22 August 2022.
  8. ↑ "NT chief minister Natasha Fyles under pressure to resign over alleged undisclosed shares worth $2,000". The Guardian. Australian Associated Press. 19 December 2023. ISSN   0261-3077 . Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  9. 1 2 "Northern Territory Chief Minister Natasha Fyles resigns amid mounting pressure over leadership". ABC News. 19 December 2023. Retrieved 19 December 2023.
  10. ↑ "Northern Territory Election Commission". Archived from the original on 10 June 2023. Retrieved 10 June 2023.
  11. ↑ "So when is the next election?". Aph.gov.au. 1 September 2016. Retrieved 28 September 2017.
  12. ↑ "Register of political parties in the Northern Territory" (PDF). NT Electoral Commission. 28 February 2023. Retrieved 21 May 2023.
  13. ↑ Smith, Camden (28 January 2024). "Territory Labor pre-selection battle looms as candidates stand up". NT News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  14. ↑ Hislop, Jack (12 January 2024). "Former NT deputy chief minister Nicole Manison will not recontest seat of Wanguri at 2024 election". ABC News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  15. ↑ Morgan, Thomas (15 February 2024). "NT independent MLA Kezia Purick to retire from politics at next election in August". ABC News. Retrieved 13 March 2024.
  16. 1 2 3 4 Finocchiaro, Lia (10 May 2023). "Budget in Reply".
  17. ↑ https://www.heraldsun.com.au/news/northern-territory/nt-election-2024-dr-tanzil-rahman-will-contest-fong-lim-for-the-clp/news-story/ea34206fb30da0edaae0e4f1ae0b008f
  18. ↑ https://www.couriermail.com.au/news/northern-territory/brian-manning-to-contest-port-darwin-for-labor-at-nt-election-following-paul-kirbys-retirement/news-story/acfb3159d76915699fffbac58e790a6b?amp
  19. ↑ https://www.abc.net.au/news/2024-03-08/nt-greens-review-peltherre-chris-tomlins-candidacy-anti-semitic/103559814
  20. ↑ "Australian Federal 2pp Estimator".
  21. ↑ "Northern Territory Social Services" (PDF). Redbridge Group. Archived from the original (PDF) on 29 November 2023. Retrieved 29 November 2023.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.