2008 Northern Territory general election

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2008 Northern Territory general election
Flag of the Northern Territory.svg
←  2005 9 August 2008 (2008-08-09) 2012  →
All 25 seats of the Northern Territory Legislative Assembly
13 seats needed for a majority
Turnout75.7 (Decrease2.svg 4.4 pp)
 First partySecond party
  Paul Henderson in 2001.jpg Terry Mills in 2005 (cropped).jpg
Leader Paul Henderson Terry Mills
Party Labor Country Liberal
Leader since26 November 200729 January 2008
Leader's seat Wanguri Blain
Last election19 seats4 seats
Seats won1311
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 6Increase2.svg 7
Popular vote34,55736,334
Percentage43.18%45.40%
SwingDecrease2.svg 8.76Increase2.svg 9.67
TPP 49.3%50.7%
TPP Decrease2.svg 9.2Increase2.svg 9.2
2008 Northern Territory Election.svg
Chief Minister before election

Paul Henderson
Labor

Elected Chief Minister

Paul Henderson
Labor

General elections were held in the Northern Territory of Australia on 9 August 2008. [1] Of the 25 seats in the Legislative Assembly, 23 were contested; two safe Labor seats were uncontested. The incumbent centre-left Labor Party (ALP), led by Chief Minister Paul Henderson won a narrow third term victory against the opposition centre-right Country Liberal Party (CLP), led by Terry Mills. Labor suffered a massive and unexpected swing against it, to hold a one-seat majority in the new parliament. [2] [3] [4]

Contents

Results

↓ 
13111
ALPIndCLP
Results of the 2008 Northern Territory general election, Legislative Assembly [5]
2008 NT Legislative Assembly.svg
PartyVotes%+/–Seats+/–
Labor 34,55743.18Decrease2.svg 8.7613-6
Country Liberal 36,33445.40Increase2.svg 9.6711+7
Independents 5,6967.12Decrease2.svg 1.041-1
Greens 3,4424.30Increase2.svg 0.130±0
Total80,029100.00–25–
Valid votes80,02995.92
Invalid/blank votes3,4074.08+0.34
Total votes83,436100.00–
Registered voters/turnout110,28975.65-5.70
Labor 39,41549.25
Country Liberal 40,61450.75
Total80,029100.00

Independents: Gerry Wood

Arnhem and MacDonnell were won by the ALP by default as no other candidates nominated, and therefore do not contribute to votes in the above result table. The Greens ran in six of the 25 seats, averaging around 16 percent. [6] Minister for Natural Resources, Environment and Heritage, Minister for Parks and Wildlife Len Kiely was defeated as was Minister for Sport and Recreation, Corporate and Information Services Matthew Bonson.

Popular vote
Country Liberal
 
45.4%
Labor
 
43.2%
Greens
 
4.3%
Independents
 
7.1%
Two-party-preferred vote
Country Liberal
 
50.7%
Labor
 
49.3%
Seats
Labor
 
52.0%
Country Liberal
 
44.0%
Independents
 
4.00%

Background

The CLP had dominated the Legislative Assembly from its creation in 1974 until 2001, when Clare Martin led Labor to government by one seat. Four years later, Labor was reelected in a landslide that surprised even the most optimistic Labor observers, reducing the CLP to only four seats. Labor even managed to oust Opposition Leader Denis Burke in his own seat. Martin resigned in 2007, shortly after a federal intervention, and was succeeded by Education Minister Paul Henderson.

In January 2008, Opposition Leader Jodeen Carney faced a challenge from her deputy, Terry Mills. Carney rebuffed a proposal to swap posts with Mills (in which she would have become deputy leader under Mills), instead calling a spill. When the vote was tied, Carney declared that a tie vote was not a vote of confidence and resigned, leaving Mills to take the leadership unopposed. Hoping to take advantage of a booming economy and the recent change in opposition leadership, Henderson opted to call an election a year before it was due.

The writs were dropped only days after the gazetting of new electoral boundaries. The Electoral Commission didn't have nearly enough time to notify voters of their new electorates, and a number of Labor MPs swept into office on the back of the 2005 landslide were unable to connect with new constituents on the hustings.

The CLP regained much of what it had lost in its severe beating of three years prior. Notably, it retook two seats in Palmerston that it had lost to Labor in the 2005 landslide. While the CLP won a slim majority of the two-party vote (aided by two Labor incumbents being reelected unopposed), Labor retained all but one seat in northern Darwin, allowing it to win a third term. Labor was only assured of reelection when it won Martin's old seat of Fannie Bay by a narrow 78 votes.

Key dates

Retiring members

The following members did not seek another term at the election.

Labor

Country Liberal

Independent

Candidates

Sitting members are listed in bold. Successful candidates are highlighted in the relevant colour.

ElectorateHeld by Labor candidate CLP candidate Greens candidate Independent candidates
 
Arafura Labor Marion Scrymgour Tristan Mungatopi
Angie Siebert		Jone Lotu
Araluen CLP John Gaynor Jodeen Carney Linda Chellew
Arnhem Labor Malarndirri McCarthy
Barkly Labor Gerry McCarthy Mick AdamsRandall Gould
Barry Nattrass
Blain CLP Ken Vowles Terry Mills
Braitling Independent Aaron Dick Adam Giles Jane ClarkEli Melky
Brennan Labor James Burke Peter Chandler
Casuarina Labor Kon Vatskalis Gary Haslett
Daly Labor Rob Knight Wayne ConnopDavid PollockAugust Stevens
Drysdale CLP Chris Natt Ross Bohlin Justin Tutty
Fannie Bay Labor Michael Gunner Garry Lambert
Fong Lim Labor Matthew Bonson Dave Tollner
Goyder CLP Ted Warren Kezia Purick
Greatorex CLP Jo Nixon Matt Conlan Lenny Aronsten
Johnston Labor Chris Burns Jo Sangster
Karama Labor Delia Lawrie Tony BacusDorothy Fox
Natalie Hunter
Katherine CLP Sharon Hillen Willem Westra van Holthe Toni Tapp Coutts
Macdonnell Labor Alison Anderson
Nelson Independent Justine Luders-SearleMaureen Kohlman Gerry Wood
Nhulunbuy Labor Lynne Walker Djwalpi Marika
Nightcliff Labor Jane Aagaard Peter ManningEmma Young
Port Darwin Labor Kerry Sacilotto John Elferink Gary Abbott
Sanderson Labor Len Kiely Peter Styles
Stuart Labor Karl Hampton Rex Granites Japanangka
Wanguri Labor Paul Henderson Kerry KyriacouDuncan Dean

Seats changing hands

SeatPre-2008SwingPost-2008
PartyMemberMarginMarginMemberParty
Braitling  Independent Loraine Braham 0.9N/A23.6* Adam Giles Country Liberal 
Brennan  Labor James Burke 0.63.42.7 Peter Chandler Country Liberal 
Drysdale** Labor Chris Natt −0.59.610.1 Ross Bohlin Country Liberal 
Fong Lim  Labornotional - new seat11.513.72.2 Dave Tollner Country Liberal 
Goyder** Labor Ted Warren -0.57.47.9 Kezia Purick Country Liberal 
Port Darwin  Labor Kerry Sacilotto 1.95.03.0 John Elferink Country Liberal 
Sanderson  Labor Len Kiely 10.017.47.4 Peter Styles Country Liberal 

Electoral pendulum

The following pendulum is known as the Mackerras pendulum, invented by psephologist Malcolm Mackerras. The pendulum works by lining up all of the seats held in the Legislative Assembly according to the percentage point margin they are held by on a two-party-preferred basis. This is also known as the swing required for the seat to change hands. Given a uniform swing to the opposition or government parties, the number of seats that change hands can be predicted. [7] [8]

Pre-election pendulum

Incumbent members who have become and remained an independent since the 2012 election are indicated in grey.

Members listed in italics did not re-contest their seat at the election.

Labor seats
Marginal
Brennan James Burke ALP0.6
Port Darwin Kerry Sacilotto ALP1.9
Fairly safe
Safe
Sanderson Len Kiely ALP10.0
Fong Lim Matthew Bonson ALP11.5
Fannie Bay Clare Martin ALP15.7
Nightcliff Jane Aagaard ALP15.7
Daly Robert Knight ALP15.8
Karama Delia Lawrie ALP16.0
Macdonnell Alison Anderson ALP16.5
Johnston Chris Burns ALP16.8
Casuarina Kon Vatskalis ALP18.3
Stuart Karl Hampton ALP18.9
Very safe
Wanguri Paul Henderson ALP20.8
Arnhem Malarndirri McCarthy ALP21.3
Arafura Marion Scrymgour ALP23.6
Barkly Elliot McAdam ALP24.2
Nhulunbuy Syd Stirling ALP25.5
Country Liberal seats
Marginal
Greatorex Matt Conlan CLP0.4
Drysdale Chris Natt CLP0.5
Goyder Ted Warren CLP0.5
Katherine Fay Miller CLP2.7
Blain Terry Mills CLP5.7
Fairly safe
Araluen Jodeen Carney CLP7.5
Independent seats
Braitling Loraine Braham IND0.9 v CLP
Nelson Gerry Wood IND16.6 v CLP

Post-election pendulum

Labor seats
Marginal
Fannie Bay Michael Gunner ALP1.1
Daly Robert Knight ALP5.6
Fairly safe
Johnston Chris Burns ALP8.1
Safe
Nightcliff Jane Aagaard ALP10.7
Karama Delia Lawrie ALP10.8
Arafura Marion Scrymgour ALP14.0
Casuarina Kon Vatskalis ALP14.2
Wanguri Paul Henderson ALP14.9
Stuart Karl Hampton ALP15.1
Barkly Gerry McCarthy ALP15.6
Very safe
Nhulunbuy Lynne Walker ALP24.2
Arnhem Malarndirri McCarthy ALPUnopp
Macdonnell Alison Anderson ALPUnopp
Country Liberal seats
Marginal
Fong Lim Dave Tollner CLP2.1
Brennan Peter Chandler CLP2.6
Port Darwin John Elferink CLP2.8
Fairly safe
Sanderson Peter Styles CLP6.4
Goyder Kezia Purick CLP8.4
Katherine Willem W-v-Holthe CLP8.4
Safe
Drysdale Ross Bohlin CLP10.1
Blain Terry Mills CLP11.6
Greatorex Matt Conlan CLP16.5
Very safe
Braitling Adam Giles CLP20.3 v GRN
Araluen Jodeen Carney CLP24.7
Independent seats
Nelson Gerry Wood IND28.7 v CLP

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References

  1. ↑ "NT election on 9 August". Ntnews.com.au. 21 July 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
  2. ↑ "Mills concedes defeat in NT election". Australian Broadcasting Corporation. 11 August 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
  3. ↑ 5 Minutes 10 Minutes. "Opposition concedes NT election". Theaustralian.news.com.au. Retrieved 27 January 2012.{{cite web}}: CS1 maint: numeric names: authors list (link)[ permanent dead link ]
  4. ↑ "Labor narrowly wins NT election". News.smh.com.au. 11 August 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
  5. ↑ "Details of NT 2008 Election" (PDF). ABC.
  6. ↑ "Henderson denies NT leadership an issue". News.theage.com.au. 12 August 2008. Retrieved 27 January 2012.
  7. ↑ "2008 Redistribution". ABC.
  8. ↑ "Details of NT 2008 Election" (PDF). ABC.

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