Penrose method

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The Penrose method (or square-root method) is a method devised in 1946 by Professor Lionel Penrose [1] for allocating the voting weights of delegations (possibly a single representative) in decision-making bodies proportional to the square root of the population represented by this delegation. This is justified by the fact that, due to the square root law of Penrose, the a priori voting power (as defined by the Penrose–Banzhaf index) of a member of a voting body is inversely proportional to the square root of its size. Under certain conditions, this allocation achieves equal voting powers for all people represented, independent of the size of their constituency. Proportional allocation would result in excessive voting powers for the electorates of larger constituencies.

Contents

A precondition for the appropriateness of the method is en bloc voting of the delegations in the decision-making body: a delegation cannot split its votes; rather, each delegation has just a single vote to which weights are applied proportional to the square root of the population they represent. Another precondition is that the opinions of the people represented are statistically independent. The representativity of each delegation results from statistical fluctuations within the country, and then, according to Penrose, "small electorates are likely to obtain more representative governments than large electorates." A mathematical formulation of this idea results in the square root rule.

The Penrose method is not currently being used for any notable decision-making body, but it has been proposed for apportioning representation in a United Nations Parliamentary Assembly, [1] [2] and for voting in the Council of the European Union. [3] [4]

The EU proposal

Comparison of voting weights
Population in millions as of 1 January 2003 [5]
Member statePopulation Nice Penrose [3]
Flag of Germany.svg  Germany 82.54m16.5%298.4%9.55%
Flag of France.svg  France 59.64m12.9%298.4%8.11%
Flag of the United Kingdom.svg  UK 59.33m12.4%298.4%8.09%
Flag of Italy.svg  Italy 57.32m12.0%298.4%7.95%
Flag of Spain.svg  Spain 41.55m9.0%277.8%6.78%
Flag of Poland.svg  Poland 38.22m7.6%277.8%6.49%
Flag of Romania.svg  Romania 21.77m4.3%144.1%4.91%
Flag of the Netherlands.svg  Netherlands 16.19m3.3%133.8%4.22%
Flag of Greece.svg  Greece 11.01m2.2%123.5%3.49%
Flag of Portugal.svg  Portugal 10.41m2.1%123.5%3.39%
Flag of Belgium (civil).svg  Belgium 10.36m2.1%123.5%3.38%
Flag of the Czech Republic.svg  Czech Rep. 10.20m2.1%123.5%3.35%
Flag of Hungary.svg  Hungary 10.14m2.0%123.5%3.34%
Flag of Sweden.svg  Sweden 8.94m1.9%102.9%3.14%
Flag of Austria.svg  Austria 8.08m1.7%102.9%2.98%
Flag of Bulgaria.svg  Bulgaria 7.85m1.5%102.9%2.94%
Flag of Denmark.svg  Denmark 5.38m1.1%72.0%2.44%
Flag of Slovakia.svg  Slovakia 5.38m1.1%72.0%2.44%
Flag of Finland.svg  Finland 5.21m1.1%72.0%2.39%
Flag of Ireland.svg  Ireland 3.96m0.9%72.0%2.09%
Flag of Lithuania.svg  Lithuania 3.46m0.7%72.0%1.95%
Flag of Latvia.svg  Latvia 2.33m0.5%41.2%1.61%
Flag of Slovenia.svg  Slovenia 2.00m0.4%41.2%1.48%
Flag of Estonia.svg  Estonia 1.36m0.3%41.2%1.23%
Flag of Cyprus.svg  Cyprus 0.72m0.2%41.2%0.89%
Flag of Luxembourg.svg  Luxembourg 0.45m0.1%41.2%0.70%
Flag of Malta.svg  Malta 0.40m0.1%30.9%0.66%
Flag of Europe.svg  EU 484.20m100%345100%100%

The Penrose method became revitalised within the European Union when it was proposed by Sweden in 2003 amid negotiations on the Amsterdam Treaty and by Poland June 2007 during summit on the Treaty of Lisbon. In this context, the method was proposed to compute voting weights of member states in the Council of the European Union.

Currently, the voting in the Council of the EU does not follow the Penrose method. Instead, the rules of the Nice Treaty are effective between 2004 and 2014, under certain conditions until 2017. The associated voting weights are compared in the adjacent table along with the population data of the member states.

Besides the voting weight, the voting power (i.e., the Penrose–Banzhaf index) of a member state also depends on the threshold percentage needed to make a decision. Smaller percentages work in favor of larger states. For example, if one state has 30% of the total voting weights while the threshold for decision making is at 29%, this state will have 100% voting power (i.e., an index of 1). For the EU-27, an optimal threshold, at which the voting powers of all citizens in any member state are almost equal, has been computed at about 61.6%. [3] After the university of the authors of this paper, this system is referred to as the "Jagiellonian Compromise". Optimal threshold decreases with the number of the member states as . [6]

The UN proposal

According to INFUSA, "The square-root method is more than a pragmatic compromise between the extreme methods of world representation unrelated to population size and allocation of national quotas in direct proportion to population size; Penrose showed that in terms of statistical theory the square-root method gives to each voter in the world an equal influence on decision-making in a world assembly". [2]

Under the Penrose method, the relative voting weights of the most populous countries are lower than their proportion of the world population. In the table below, the countries' voting weights are computed as the square root of their year-2005 population in millions. This procedure was originally published by Penrose in 1946 based on pre-World War II population figures. [1]

Population
as of 2005
Percent of
world population
Voting weightPercent of
total weight
World6,434,577,575100.00%721.32100.00%
RankCountry
1People's Republic of China1,306,313,81220.30%36.145.01%
2India1,080,264,38816.79%32.874.56%
3United States of America297,200,0004.62%17.242.39%
4Indonesia241,973,8793.76%15.562.16%
5Brazil186,112,7942.89%13.641.89%
6Pakistan162,419,9462.52%12.741.77%
7Bangladesh144,319,6282.24%12.011.67%
8Russia143,420,3092.23%11.981.66%
9Nigeria128,771,9882.00%11.351.57%
10Japan127,417,2441.98%11.291.56%
11Mexico106,202,9031.65%10.311.43%
12Philippines87,857,4731.37%9.371.30%
13Vietnam83,535,5761.30%9.141.27%
14Germany82,468,0001.28%9.081.26%
15Egypt77,505,7561.20%8.801.22%
16Ethiopia73,053,2861.14%8.551.18%
17Turkey69,660,5591.08%8.351.16%
18Iran68,017,8601.06%8.251.14%
19Thailand65,444,3711.02%8.091.12%
20France60,656,1780.94%7.791.08%
21United Kingdom60,441,4570.94%7.771.08%
22Democratic Republic of the Congo60,085,8040.93%7.751.07%
23Italy58,103,0330.90%7.621.06%
24South Korea48,422,6440.75%6.960.96%
25Ukraine47,425,3360.74%6.890.95%
26South Africa44,344,1360.69%6.660.92%
27Spain43,209,5110.67%6.570.91%
28Colombia42,954,2790.67%6.550.91%
29Myanmar42,909,4640.67%6.550.91%
30Sudan40,187,4860.62%6.340.88%
31Argentina39,537,9430.61%6.290.87%
32Poland38,635,1440.60%6.220.86%
33Tanzania36,766,3560.57%6.060.84%
34Kenya33,829,5900.53%5.820.81%
35Canada32,400,0000.50%5.690.79%
36Morocco32,725,8470.51%5.720.79%
37Algeria32,531,8530.51%5.700.79%
38Afghanistan29,928,9870.47%5.470.76%
39Peru27,925,6280.43%5.280.73%
40Nepal27,676,5470.43%5.260.73%
41Uganda27,269,4820.42%5.220.72%
42Uzbekistan26,851,1950.42%5.180.72%
43Saudi Arabia26,417,5990.41%5.140.71%
44Malaysia26,207,1020.41%5.120.71%
45Iraq26,074,9060.41%5.110.71%
46Venezuela25,375,2810.39%5.040.70%
47North Korea22,912,1770.36%4.790.66%
48Republic of China22,894,3840.36%4.780.66%
49Romania22,329,9770.35%4.730.66%
50Ghana21,029,8530.33%4.590.64%
51Yemen20,727,0630.32%4.550.63%
52Australia20,229,8000.31%4.500.62%
53Sri Lanka20,064,7760.31%4.480.62%
54Mozambique19,406,7030.30%4.410.61%
55Syria18,448,7520.29%4.300.60%
56Madagascar18,040,3410.28%4.250.59%
57Côte d'Ivoire17,298,0400.27%4.160.58%
58Netherlands16,407,4910.25%4.050.56%
59Cameroon16,380,0050.25%4.050.56%
60Chile16,267,2780.25%4.030.56%
61Kazakhstan15,185,8440.24%3.900.54%
62Guatemala14,655,1890.23%3.830.53%
63Burkina Faso13,925,3130.22%3.730.52%
64Cambodia13,607,0690.21%3.690.51%
65Ecuador13,363,5930.21%3.660.51%
66Zimbabwe12,746,9900.20%3.570.49%
67Mali12,291,5290.19%3.510.49%
68Malawi12,158,9240.19%3.490.48%
69Niger11,665,9370.18%3.420.47%
70Cuba11,346,6700.18%3.370.47%
71Zambia11,261,7950.18%3.360.47%
72Angola11,190,7860.17%3.350.46%
73Senegal11,126,8320.17%3.340.46%
74Serbia and Montenegro10,829,1750.17%3.290.46%
75Greece10,668,3540.17%3.270.45%
76Portugal10,566,2120.16%3.250.45%
77Belgium10,364,3880.16%3.220.45%
78Belarus10,300,4830.16%3.210.44%
79Czech Republic10,241,1380.16%3.200.44%
80Hungary10,081,0000.16%3.180.44%
81Tunisia10,074,9510.16%3.170.44%
82Chad9,826,4190.15%3.130.43%
83Guinea9,467,8660.15%3.080.43%
84Sweden9,001,7740.14%3.000.42%
85Dominican Republic8,950,0340.14%2.990.41%
86Bolivia8,857,8700.14%2.980.41%
87Somalia8,591,6290.13%2.930.41%
88Rwanda8,440,8200.13%2.910.40%
89Austria8,184,6910.13%2.860.40%
90Haiti8,121,6220.13%2.850.40%
91Azerbaijan7,911,9740.12%2.810.39%
92Switzerland7,489,3700.12%2.740.38%
93Benin7,460,0250.12%2.730.38%
94Bulgaria7,450,3490.12%2.730.38%
95Tajikistan7,163,5060.11%2.680.37%
96Honduras6,975,2040.11%2.640.37%
97Israel6,955,0000.11%2.640.37%
98El Salvador6,704,9320.10%2.590.36%
99Burundi6,370,6090.10%2.520.35%
100Paraguay6,347,8840.10%2.520.35%
101Laos6,217,1410.10%2.490.35%
102Sierra Leone6,017,6430.09%2.450.34%
103Libya5,765,5630.09%2.400.33%
104Jordan5,759,7320.09%2.400.33%
105Togo5,681,5190.09%2.380.33%
106Papua New Guinea5,545,2680.09%2.350.33%
107Nicaragua5,465,1000.08%2.340.32%
108Denmark5,432,3350.08%2.330.32%
109Slovakia5,431,3630.08%2.330.32%
110Finland5,223,4420.08%2.290.32%
111Kyrgyzstan5,146,2810.08%2.270.31%
112Turkmenistan4,952,0810.08%2.230.31%
113Georgia4,677,4010.07%2.160.30%
114Norway4,593,0410.07%2.140.30%
115Eritrea4,561,5990.07%2.140.30%
116Croatia4,495,9040.07%2.120.29%
117Moldova4,455,4210.07%2.110.29%
118Singapore4,425,7200.07%2.100.29%
119Ireland4,130,7000.06%2.030.28%
120New Zealand4,098,2000.06%2.020.28%
121Bosnia and Herzegovina4,025,4760.06%2.010.28%
122Costa Rica4,016,1730.06%2.000.28%
123Lebanon3,826,0180.06%1.960.27%
124Central African Republic3,799,8970.06%1.950.27%
125Lithuania3,596,6170.06%1.900.26%
126Albania3,563,1120.06%1.890.26%
127Liberia3,482,2110.05%1.870.26%
128Uruguay3,415,9200.05%1.850.26%
129Mauritania3,086,8590.05%1.760.24%
130Panama3,039,1500.05%1.740.24%
131Republic of the Congo3,039,1260.05%1.740.24%
132Oman3,001,5830.05%1.730.24%
133Armenia2,982,9040.05%1.730.24%
134Mongolia2,791,2720.04%1.670.23%
135Jamaica2,731,8320.04%1.650.23%
136United Arab Emirates2,563,2120.04%1.600.22%
137Kuwait2,335,6480.04%1.530.21%
138Latvia2,290,2370.04%1.510.21%
139Bhutan2,232,2910.03%1.490.21%
140Macedonia2,045,2620.03%1.430.20%
141Namibia2,030,6920.03%1.430.20%
142Slovenia2,011,0700.03%1.420.20%
143Lesotho1,867,0350.03%1.370.19%
144Botswana1,640,1150.03%1.280.18%
145The Gambia1,593,2560.02%1.260.17%
146Guinea-Bissau1,416,0270.02%1.190.16%
147Gabon1,389,2010.02%1.180.16%
148Estonia1,332,8930.02%1.150.16%
149Mauritius1,230,6020.02%1.110.15%
150Swaziland1,173,9000.02%1.080.15%
151Trinidad and Tobago1,088,6440.02%1.040.14%
152East Timor1,040,8800.02%1.020.14%
153Fiji893,3540.01%0.950.13%
154Qatar863,0510.01%0.930.13%
155Cyprus780,1330.01%0.880.12%
156Guyana765,2830.01%0.870.12%
157Bahrain688,3450.01%0.830.12%
158Comoros671,2470.01%0.820.11%
159Solomon Islands538,0320.01%0.730.10%
160Equatorial Guinea535,8810.01%0.730.10%
161Djibouti476,7030.01%0.690.10%
162Luxembourg468,5710.01%0.680.09%
163Suriname438,1440.01%0.660.09%
164Cape Verde418,2240.01%0.650.09%
165Malta398,5340.01%0.630.09%
166Brunei372,3610.01%0.610.08%
167Maldives349,1060.01%0.590.08%
168The Bahamas301,7900.005%0.550.08%
169Iceland296,7370.005%0.540.08%
170Belize279,4570.004%0.530.07%
171Barbados279,2540.004%0.530.07%
172Vanuatu205,7540.003%0.450.06%
173São Tomé and Príncipe187,4100.003%0.430.06%
174Samoa177,2870.003%0.420.06%
175Saint Lucia166,3120.003%0.410.06%
176Saint Vincent and the Grenadines117,5340.002%0.340.05%
177Tonga112,4220.002%0.340.05%
178Federated States of Micronesia108,1050.002%0.330.05%
179Kiribati103,0920.002%0.320.04%
180Grenada89,5020.001%0.300.04%
181Seychelles81,1880.001%0.280.04%
182Andorra70,5490.001%0.270.04%
183Dominica69,0290.001%0.260.04%
184Antigua and Barbuda68,7220.001%0.260.04%
185Marshall Islands59,0710.001%0.240.03%
186Saint Kitts and Nevis38,9580.001%0.200.03%
187Liechtenstein33,7170.001%0.180.03%
188Monaco32,4090.001%0.180.02%
189San Marino28,8800.0004%0.170.02%
190Palau20,3030.0003%0.140.02%
191Nauru13,0480.0002%0.110.02%
192Tuvalu11,6360.0002%0.110.01%
193Vatican City9210.00001%0.030.004%

Criticisms

It has been claimed that the Penrose square root law is limited to votes for which public opinion is equally divided for and against. [7] [8] [9] A study of various elections has shown that this equally-divided scenario is not typical; these elections suggested that voting weights should be distributed according to the 0.9 power of the number of voters represented (in contrast to the 0.5 power used in the Penrose method). [8]

In practice, the theoretical possibility of the decisiveness of a single vote is questionable. Elections results that come close to a tie are likely to be legally challenged, as was the case in the US presidential election in Florida in 2000, which suggests that no single vote is pivotal. [8]

In addition, a minor technical issue is that the theoretical argument for allocation of voting weight is based on the possibility that an individual has a deciding vote in each representative's area. This scenario is only possible when each representative has an odd number of voters in their area. [9]

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 3 L.S. Penrose (1946). "The elementary statistics of majority voting" (PDF). Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. 109 (1): 53–57. doi:10.2307/2981392. JSTOR   2981392.
  2. 1 2 "Proposal for a United Nations Second Assembly". International Network for a UN Second Assembly. 1987. Retrieved 27 April 2010.
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  9. 1 2 On the "Jagiellonian compromise"