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| Formation | 2016 |
|---|---|
| Type | Public policy think tank |
Key people | Tony Seba James Arbib |
| Website | rethinkx |
RethinkX is a think tank founded by Tony Seba and James Arbib that focuses on identifying disruptive innovations that could soon impact society.
"Rethinking Transportation", published in 2017, builds on the ideas described in two of Seba's previously published books. The thesis of "Rethinking Transportation" is that, by 2030, a convergence of exponentially-improving factors will make it cheaper for urban and suburban dwellers to subscribe to Transportation as a Service (TaaS), using self-driving electric cars, than to own their own car. [1] The converging factors cited in the book include: [2] [3] [4] [5]
RethinkX's predictions regarding TaaS have led to debate. [6] [7] [8] [9] [10] [11] [12] Critics generally agreed that the transition to TaaS would happen, but that it would take longer and/or be less complete than RethinkX predicted, for reasons that were:
"Rethinking Transportation 2020–2030" and its precursors (Solar Trillions [21] and Clean Energy Disruption [22] ) made specific predictions for the future prices of solar energy, lithium-ion batteries, electric vehicles, and other items, for each year between their respective dates of publication and 2035.
This report can be seen as an addendum to 2017's Rethinking Transportation 2020–2030 and 2020's Rethinking Energy 2020-2030. It claims to have identified a flaw in the energy industry's method of calculating the Levelized Cost Of Energy (LCOE) for traditional generation modes such as coal, nuclear and gas, in that their analysis assumes that the capacity factor is constant, and claims that this flaw has caused systematic overinvestment in the world's conventional energy sources while causing systematic underinvestment in alternative energy sources such as solar+battery. This report was cited in news stories from around the world. [23] [24] [25] [26] [27]
The thesis of Rethinking Food and Agriculture is that, by 2030, a convergence of exponentially-improving factors will make manufactured protein "five times cheaper by 2030 and 10 times cheaper by 2035 than existing animal proteins, before ultimately approaching the cost of sugar. [28] They will also be superior in every key attribute—more nutritious, healthier, better tasting, and more convenient, with almost unimaginable variety. This means that, by 2030, modern food products will be higher quality and cost less than half as much to produce as the animal-derived products they replace." [28] : 6
These factors driving this result are listed as:
RethinkX's predictions for the disruption of protein by precision fermentation include: [29] [30] [31] [32] [33] [34] [35] [36] [37]
As with RethinkX's previous report on energy and transportation, critics' primary objection was that the disruption would take longer, and be less complete, than RethinkX had predicted. [38] [39] [40] [41]
Other critics argued that RethinkX's motivations were tainted by greed. North Dakota State University livestock economist Tim Petry noted in the Australian beef industry magazine Beef Central that RethinkX's report "was written by Silicon Valley hi-tech people who want to lure billionaire investors to invest in their companies. That's the case with anything. When you have something very dramatic, it's easier to get it in the papers than a report that says meat production is going to increase 1pc a year". [42] [33] [43] A spokesman for the US's National Milk Producers Federation [44] told FoodNavigator [38] that "This report would have you believe that in 11 short years we will be living in The Jetsons, with consumers massively adopting industrially-developed, untested food-like products on their way to vegan fantasyland." Philosophy professor Martin Cohen and food science professor Frédéric Leroy noted "We should recall Marx's warnings against allowing the interests of corporations and private profit to decide what we should eat". [45]
The thesis of Rethinking Humanity is that, first, the Seba Technology Disruption Framework could be extended to explain disruptions of society as a whole because "the same processes and dynamics that drive S-curve adoption of new products at a sector level repeat at the level of civilizations," [46] and that, second, human civilization was now "on the cusp of the fastest, deepest, most consequential transformation of human civilization in history, a transformation every bit as significant as the move from foraging to cities and agriculture 10,000 years ago." [46] : 5
Rethinking Humanity asserts [46] : 5 that each of the five "foundational sectors" that underpin the global economy—information, energy, food, transportation, and materials—"will be disrupted in the period 2020–2033, costs will fall by 10x or more, while production processes an order of magnitude (10x) more efficient will use 90% fewer natural resources with 10x-100x less waste." It further asserts [46] : 5 that these technological disruptions have the potential to disrupt human civilization, for good or ill, and that humanity must develop a new social, political, and economic "Organizing System" to ensure that the outcome of this disruption is "A New Age of Freedom."
The publication of Rethinking Humanity in June 2020 prompted less global press coverage than its previous reports. [47] [48] [49] [50] [51] [52] [53] [54]
The criticisms of Rethinking Humanity were similar to those leveled at RethinkX's previous reports. [54] [55]
A dairy is a place where milk is stored and where butter, cheese and other dairy products are made, or a place where those products are sold. It may be a room, a building or a larger establishment. In the United States, the word may also describe a dairy farm or the part of a mixed farm dedicated to milk for human consumption, whether from cows, buffaloes, goats, sheep, horses or camels.
An electric vehicle (EV) is a vehicle that uses one or more electric motors for propulsion. It can be powered by a collector system, with electricity from extravehicular sources, or it can be powered autonomously by a battery. EVs include but are not limited to road and rail vehicles, and broadly can also include electric boat and underwater vessels, electric aircraft and electric spacecraft.
Dairy cattle are cattle bred for the ability to produce large quantities of milk, from which dairy products are made. Dairy cattle generally are of the species Bos taurus.
There are different systems of feeding cattle in animal husbandry. For pastured animals, grass is usually the forage that composes the majority of their diet. Cattle reared in feedlots are fed hay supplemented with grain, soy and other ingredients to increase the energy density of the feed. The debate is whether cattle should be raised on fodder primarily composed of grass or a concentrate. The issue is complicated by the political interests and confusion between labels such as "free range", "organic", or "natural". Cattle raised on a primarily foraged diet are termed grass-fed or pasture-raised; for example meat or milk may be called grass-fed beef or pasture-raised dairy. The term "pasture-raised" can lead to confusion with the term "free range", which does not describe exactly what the animals eat.
A fuel cell vehicle (FCV) or fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV) is an electric vehicle that uses a fuel cell, sometimes in combination with a small battery or supercapacitor, to power its onboard electric motor. Fuel cells in vehicles generate electricity generally using oxygen from the air and compressed hydrogen. Most fuel cell vehicles are classified as zero-emissions vehicles that emit only water and heat. As compared with internal combustion vehicles, hydrogen vehicles centralize pollutants at the site of the hydrogen production, where hydrogen is typically derived from reformed natural gas. Transporting and storing hydrogen may also create pollutants. Fuel cells have been used in various kinds of vehicles including forklifts, especially in indoor applications where their clean emissions are important to air quality, and in space applications. Fuel cells are being developed and tested in trucks, buses, boats, ships, motorcycles and bicycles, among other kinds of vehicles.
Climate change mitigation is action to limit climate change by reducing emissions of greenhouse gases or removing those gases from the atmosphere. The recent rise in global average temperature is mostly due to emissions from unabated burning of fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas. Mitigation can reduce emissions by transitioning to sustainable energy sources, conserving energy, and increasing efficiency. It is possible to remove carbon dioxide from the atmosphere by enlarging forests, restoring wetlands and using other natural and technical processes. Experts call these processes carbon sequestration. Governments and companies have pledged to reduce emissions to prevent dangerous climate change in line with international negotiations to limit warming by reducing emissions.
Road transport is an element of the Australian transport network, and contributes to the Australian economy. Australia relies heavily on road transport due to Australia's large area and low population density in considerable parts of the country.
Fossil fuel phase-out is the gradual reduction of the use and production of fossil fuels to zero, to reduce deaths and illness from air pollution, limit climate change, and strengthen energy independence. It is part of the ongoing renewable energy transition, but is being hindered by fossil fuel subsidies.
A car, or an automobile, is a motor vehicle with wheels. Most definitions of cars state that they run primarily on roads, seat one to eight people, have four wheels, and mainly transport people, not cargo. French inventor Nicolas-Joseph Cugnot built the first steam-powered road vehicle in 1769, while French-born Swiss inventor François Isaac de Rivaz designed and constructed the first internal combustion-powered automobile in 1808.
A low-carbon diet is any diet that results in lower greenhouse gas emissions. Choosing a low carbon diet is one facet of developing sustainable diets which increase the long-term sustainability of humanity. Major tenets of a low-carbon diet include eating a plant-based diet, and in particular little or no beef and dairy. Low-carbon diets differ around the world in taste, style, and the frequency they are eaten. Asian countries like India and China feature vegetarian and vegan meals as staples in their diets. In contrast, Europe and North America rely on animal products for their Western diets.
An electric car or electric vehicle (EV) is a passenger automobile that is propelled by an electric traction motor, using only energy stored in on-board batteries. Compared to conventional internal combustion engine (ICE) vehicles, electric cars are quieter, more responsive, have superior energy conversion efficiency and no exhaust emissions and lower overall vehicle emissions. The term "electric car" normally refers to battery electric vehicle (BEV), but broadly may also include plug-in hybrid electric vehicle (PHEV), range-extended electric vehicle (REEV) and fuel cell electric vehicle (FCEV).
Individual action on climate change can include personal choices in many areas, such as diet, travel, household energy use, consumption of goods and services, and family size. Individuals can also engage in local and political advocacy around issues of climate change. People who wish to reduce their carbon footprint, can take "high-impact" actions, such as avoiding frequent flying and petrol fuelled cars, eating mainly a plant-based diet, having fewer children, using clothes and electrical products for longer, and electrifying homes. Avoiding meat and dairy foods has been called "the single biggest way" an individual can reduce their environmental impact. Excessive consumption is more to blame for climate change than population increase. High consumption lifestyles have a greater environmental impact, with the richest 10% of people emitting about half the total lifestyle emissions.
Stranded assets are "assets that have suffered from unanticipated or premature write-downs, devaluations or conversion to liabilities". Stranded assets can be caused by a variety of factors and are a phenomenon inherent in the 'creative destruction' of economic growth, transformation and innovation; as such they pose risks to individuals and firms and may have systemic implications. Climate change is expected to cause a significant increase in stranded assets for carbon-intensive industries and investors, with a potential ripple effect throughout the world economy.
The electric vehicle industry in India is slowly growing. The central and state governments have implemented schemes and incentives to promote electric mobility, and have introduced regulations and standards. Although India would benefit from converting its transport from internal combustion (IC) engines to electric motors, challenges include a lack of charging infrastructure, high initial cost and a lack of renewable energy. E-commerce companies, car manufacturers, app-based transport network companies and mobility-solution providers have entered the sector, however, and are slowly building electric-car capacity and visibility.
Cellular agriculture focuses on the production of agricultural products from cell cultures using a combination of biotechnology, tissue engineering, molecular biology, and synthetic biology to create and design new methods of producing proteins, fats, and tissues that would otherwise come from traditional agriculture. Most of the industry is focused on animal products such as meat, milk, and eggs, produced in cell culture rather than raising and slaughtering farmed livestock which is associated with substantial global problems of detrimental environmental impacts, animal welfare, food security and human health. Cellular agriculture is a field of the biobased economy. The most well known cellular agriculture concept is cultured meat.
Contemporary Amperex Technology Co. Limited, abbreviated as CATL, is a Chinese battery manufacturer and technology company founded in 2011 that specializes in the manufacturing of lithium-ion batteries for electric vehicles and energy storage systems, as well as battery management systems (BMS). With a market share of 32.6% in 2021, CATL is the biggest lithium-ion battery manufacturer for EVs in the world, producing 96.7 GWh of the global 296.8 GWh, up 167.5% from the prior year. It grew even further in 2022, increasing its market share to 37%. The company plans to have a manufacturing capacity of more than 500 GWh by 2025 and more than 800 GWh by 2030.
Vehicles that are powered by fossil fuels, such as gasoline (petrol), diesel, kerosene, and fuel oil are set to be phased out by a number of countries. It is one of the three most important parts of the general fossil fuel phase-out process, the others being the phase-out of fossil fuel power plants for electricity generation and decarbonisation of industry.
Crowd Cow is an American online meat delivery marketplace. It connects fisheries and ranchers who raise livestock with consumers who want to buy meat.
The Climate Change Commission is an independent Crown entity that advises the New Zealand Government on climate change policy and monitors the government's progress towards New Zealand's emission reduction goals within the framework of the Climate Change Response Amendment Act. The Commission was established as the successor to the Interim Climate Change Committee following the passage of the Zero Carbon Act in November 2019.
The adoption of plug-in electric vehicles in Iceland is the second highest in the world after Norway, and fully supported by the government. As of 2022, the market share of electric vehicles in Iceland is around 60%, the second-highest in the world behind Norway. Around 14% of the country's passenger car fleet is electrified as of 2022.
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