Scott Ferson | |
---|---|
Nationality | American |
Alma mater | Wabash College (AB) Stony Brook University (PhD) |
Known for | p-boxes probability bounds analysis |
Scientific career | |
Fields | risk and uncertainty uncertainty quantification uncertainty propagation environmental science conservation biology |
Institutions | University of Liverpool Stony Brook University Applied Biomathematics |
Doctoral advisor | Lawrence Slobodkin |
Website | sites |
Scott David Ferson is Chair of Uncertainty in Engineering at University of Liverpool, Professor in its School of Engineering, and director of the Institute for Risk and Uncertainty there. Before joining the University of Liverpool, Ferson taught as an adjunct professor at Stony Brook University and did research at Applied Biomathematics, a small think tank on Long Island, New York. [1] He was named a Fellow of the Society for Risk Analysis and received its Distinguished Educator Award in 2017. [2] [3] From Shelbyville, Indiana, Ferson received a PhD from Stony Brook University and an A.B. from Wabash College. [1]
Ferson published several books and over 250 other scholarly publications, [4] mostly in methods for analyzing risks and uncertainty for environmental and engineering problems. [5] He developed the notion of the probability box and probability bounds analysis, a technique for distribution-free risk analysis or sensitivity analysis for probabilistic assessments. He authored a series of reports [6] that have been influential in uncertainty quantification for engineering risk assessment and design problems.
Sir David John Spiegelhalter is a British statistician and a Fellow of Churchill College, Cambridge. From 2007 to 2018 he was Winton Professor of the Public Understanding of Risk in the Statistical Laboratory at the University of Cambridge. Spiegelhalter is an ISI highly cited researcher.
Mark A. Burgman is an Australian ecologist, Professor at the University of Hawaiʻi at Mānoa from 2024 and Emeritus Professor of Risk Analysis & Environmental Policy and former Director of the Centre for Environmental Policy at Imperial College London. He was Director of the Australian Centre of Excellence for Risk Analysis (ACERA), latterly CEBRA, and Adrienne Clarke Chair of Botany at the University of Melbourne until 2017. He co-led The SWARM Project at the University of Melbourne.
Bilal M. Ayyub is a researcher in risk analysis and reliability engineering. He has been a professor of civil and environmental engineering at the University of Maryland, College Park (UMD) since 1983, and is also the director of the Center for Technology and Systems Management at its A. James Clark School of Engineering.
In simple terms, risk is the possibility of something bad happening. Risk involves uncertainty about the effects/implications of an activity with respect to something that humans value, often focusing on negative, undesirable consequences. Many different definitions have been proposed. One international standard definition of risk is the "effect of uncertainty on objectives".
Ralph Tyrrell Rockafellar is an American mathematician and one of the leading scholars in optimization theory and related fields of analysis and combinatorics. He is the author of four major books including the landmark text "Convex Analysis" (1970), which has been cited more than 27,000 times according to Google Scholar and remains the standard reference on the subject, and "Variational Analysis" for which the authors received the Frederick W. Lanchester Prize from the Institute for Operations Research and the Management Sciences (INFORMS).
Vladik Kreinovich is a professor of computer science at the University of Texas at El Paso.
A probability box is a characterization of uncertain numbers consisting of both aleatoric and epistemic uncertainties that is often used in risk analysis or quantitative uncertainty modeling where numerical calculations must be performed. Probability bounds analysis is used to make arithmetic and logical calculations with p-boxes.
Probability bounds analysis (PBA) is a collection of methods of uncertainty propagation for making qualitative and quantitative calculations in the face of uncertainties of various kinds. It is used to project partial information about random variables and other quantities through mathematical expressions. For instance, it computes sure bounds on the distribution of a sum, product, or more complex function, given only sure bounds on the distributions of the inputs. Such bounds are called probability boxes, and constrain cumulative probability distributions.
P-boxes and probability bounds analysis have been used in many applications spanning many disciplines in engineering and environmental science, including:
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Allen Robert Tannenbaum was an American applied mathematician who finished his career as a Distinguished Professor in the Departments of Computer Science and Applied Mathematics & Statistics at the State University of New York at Stony Brook.
Andrzej Piotr Ruszczyński is a Polish-American applied mathematician, noted for his contributions to mathematical optimization, in particular, stochastic programming and risk-averse optimization.
Lev R. Ginzburg is a mathematical ecologist and the president of the firm Applied Biomathematics.
Harold Vincent Poor is the Michael Henry Strater University Professor of Electrical Engineering at Princeton University, where he is also the Interim Dean of the School of Engineering and Applied Science. He is a specialist in wireless telecommunications, signal processing and information theory. He has received many honorary degrees and election to national academies. He was also President of IEEE Information Theory Society (1990). He is on the board of directors of the IEEE Foundation.
Keith John Beven is a British hydrologist and distinguished emeritus professor in hydrology at Lancaster University. According to Lancaster University he is the most highly cited hydrologist.
Hanspeter Pfister is a Swiss computer scientist. He is the An Wang Professor of Computer Science at the Harvard John A. Paulson School of Engineering and Applied Sciences and an affiliate faculty member of the Center for Brain Science at Harvard University. His research in visual computing lies at the intersection of scientific visualization, information visualization, computer graphics, and computer vision and spans a wide range of topics, including biomedical image analysis and visualization, image and video analysis, and visual analytics in data science.
Abraham Michael Hasofer (1927–2010) was an Australian statistician. Professor Hasofer held the position of the Chair of Statistics within the Mathematics Department in the University of New South Wales in Sydney from 1969 to 1991. He subsequently held a position at the La Trobe University in Melbourne. He authored a number of publications in the field of applied mathematics and civil engineering, including his formulation of the Hasofer-Lind Reliability Index.
James Hall, is Professor of Climate and Environmental Risks and former director of the Environmental Change Institute at the University of Oxford. He is director of research at the School of Geography and the Environment, Senior Research Fellow at the Department of Engineering Science and Fellow of Linacre College. Hall is a member of the UK Prime Minister's Council for Science and Technology, commissioner of the National Infrastructure Commission, and is chair of the Science and Advisory Committee of the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. He was appointed as a Fellow of the Royal Academy of Engineering in 2010. He was a member of the Adaptation Sub-Committee of the UK Climate Change Committee from 2009 to 2019. He was appointed as vice-president of the Institution of Civil Engineers in 2021 with a view to become president in 2024.
Scott A. Smolka is a SUNY Distinguished Professor in the Department of Computer Science at Stony Brook University, Stony Brook, New York.
M. Granger Morgan is an American scientist, academic, and engineer who is the Hamerschlag University Professor of Engineering at Carnegie Mellon University. Over his career, Morgan has led the development of the area of engineering and public policy.