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Four main lines of evidence support attribution of recent climate change to human activities: Firstly, a physical understanding of the climate system: greenhouse gas concentrations have increased and their warming properties are well-established. Secondly, there are historical estimates of past climate changes suggest that the recent changes in global surface temperature are unusual. Thirdly, computer-based climate models are unable to replicate the observed warming unless human greenhouse gas emissions are included. And finally, natural forces alone cannot explain the observed warming.
The greenhouse effect occurs when greenhouse gases in a planet's atmosphere trap some of the heat radiated from the planet's surface, raising its temperature. This process happens because stars emit shortwave radiation that passes through greenhouse gases, but planets emit longwave radiation that is partly absorbed by greenhouse gases. That difference reduces the rate at which a planet can cool off in response to being warmed by its host star. Adding to greenhouse gases further reduces the rate a planet emits radiation to space, raising its average surface temperature.
Global warming potential or greenhouse warming potential (GWP) is a measure of how much infrared thermal radiation a greenhouse gas added to the atmosphere would absorb over a given time frame, as a multiple of the radiation that would be absorbed by the same mass of added carbon dioxide. GWP is 1 for CO2. For other gases it depends on how strongly the gas absorbs infrared thermal radiation, how quickly the gas leaves the atmosphere, and the time frame being considered. The carbon dioxide equivalent is calculated from GWP. For any gas, it is the mass of CO2 that would warm the earth as much as the mass of that gas. Thus it provides a common scale for measuring the climate effects of different gases. It is calculated as GWP times mass of the other gas.
There is a strong scientific consensus that the Earth is warming and that this warming is mainly caused by human activities. This consensus is supported by various studies of scientists' opinions and by position statements of scientific organizations, many of which explicitly agree with the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) synthesis reports.
This is a list of the most influential long-lived, well-mixed greenhouse gases, along with their tropospheric concentrations and direct radiative forcings, as identified by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). Abundances of these trace gases are regularly measured by atmospheric scientists from samples collected throughout the world. Since the 1980s, their forcing contributions are also estimated with high accuracy using IPCC-recommended expressions derived from radiative transfer models.
Climate sensitivity is a measure of how much Earth's surface will warm for a doubling in the atmospheric carbon dioxide concentration. In technical terms, climate sensitivity is the average change in global mean surface temperature in response to a radiative forcing, which drives a difference between Earth's incoming and outgoing energy. Climate sensitivity is a key measure in climate science, and a focus area for climate scientists, who want to understand the ultimate consequences of anthropogenic global warming.
Zbigniew Jaworowski was a Polish physician, radiologist and alpinist. He chaired the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of Atomic Radiation in 1981 and 1982. He was an investigator for projects by the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency and the International Atomic Energy Agency. Later in his career, Jaworowski disputed that ionizing radiation from the Chernobyl disaster was a major catastrophe for human health and wrote that the movement to remove lead from gasoline was based on a "stupid and fraudulent myth". Outside of his expertise in radiology, Jaworowski published articles criticizing mainstream climate science, including in magazines published by Lyndon LaRouche.
Carbon capture and storage (CCS) is a process in which a relatively pure stream of carbon dioxide (CO2) from industrial sources is separated, treated and transported to a long-term storage location. For example, the carbon dioxide stream that is to be captured can result from burning fossil fuels or biomass. Usually the CO2 is captured from large point sources, such as a chemical plant or biomass plant, and then stored in an underground geological formation. The aim is to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thus mitigate climate change. The IPCC's most recent report on mitigating climate change describes CCS retrofits for existing power plants as one of the ways to limit emissions from the electricity sector and meet Paris Agreement goals.
The First Assessment Report (FAR) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) was completed in 1990. It served as the basis of the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC). This report had effects not only on the establishment of the UNFCCC, but also on the first conference of the parties (COP), held in Berlin in 1995. The executive summary of the WG I Summary for Policymakers report that said they were certain that emissions resulting from human activities are substantially increasing the atmospheric concentrations of the greenhouse gases, resulting on average in an additional warming of the Earth's surface. They calculated with confidence that CO2 had been responsible for over half the enhanced greenhouse effect.
Greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from human activities intensify the greenhouse effect. This contributes to climate change. Carbon dioxide, from burning fossil fuels such as coal, oil, and natural gas, is one of the most important factors in causing climate change. The largest emitters are China followed by the United States. The United States has higher emissions per capita. The main producers fueling the emissions globally are large oil and gas companies. Emissions from human activities have increased atmospheric carbon dioxide by about 50% over pre-industrial levels. The growing levels of emissions have varied, but have been consistent among all greenhouse gases. Emissions in the 2010s averaged 56 billion tons a year, higher than any decade before. Total cumulative emissions from 1870 to 2017 were 425±20 GtC from fossil fuels and industry, and 180±60 GtC from land use change. Land-use change, such as deforestation, caused about 31% of cumulative emissions over 1870–2017, coal 32%, oil 25%, and gas 10%.
In Earth's atmosphere, carbon dioxide is a trace gas that plays an integral part in the greenhouse effect, carbon cycle, photosynthesis and oceanic carbon cycle. It is one of several greenhouse gases in the atmosphere of Earth. The current global average concentration of CO2 in the atmosphere is 421 ppm as of May 2022 (0.04%). This is an increase of 50% since the start of the Industrial Revolution, up from 280 ppm during the 10,000 years prior to the mid-18th century. The increase is due to human activity. Burning fossil fuels is the main cause of these increased CO2 concentrations and also the main cause of climate change. Other large anthropogenic sources include cement production, deforestation, and biomass burning.
The Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) of the United Nations Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) is the fifth in a series of such reports and was completed in 2014. As had been the case in the past, the outline of the AR5 was developed through a scoping process which involved climate change experts from all relevant disciplines and users of IPCC reports, in particular representatives from governments. Governments and organizations involved in the Fourth Report were asked to submit comments and observations in writing with the submissions analysed by the panel. Projections in AR5 are based on "Representative Concentration Pathways" (RCPs). The RCPs are consistent with a wide range of possible changes in future anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions. Projected changes in global mean surface temperature and sea level are given in the main RCP article.
Greenhouse gases are the gases in the atmosphere that raise the surface temperature of planets such as the Earth. What distinguishes them from other gases is that they absorb the wavelengths of radiation that a planet emits, resulting in the greenhouse effect. The Earth is warmed by sunlight, causing its surface to radiate heat, which is then mostly absorbed by water vapor (H2O), carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), nitrous oxide (N2O), and ozone (O3). Without greenhouse gases, the average temperature of Earth's surface would be about −18 °C (0 °F), rather than the present average of 15 °C (59 °F).
Atmospheric methane is the methane present in Earth's atmosphere. The concentration of atmospheric methane is increasing due to methane emissions, and is causing climate change. Methane is one of the most potent greenhouse gases. Methane's radiative forcing (RF) of climate is direct, and it is the second largest contributor to human-caused climate forcing in the historical period. Methane is a major source of water vapour in the stratosphere through oxidation; and water vapour adds about 15% to methane's radiative forcing effect. The global warming potential (GWP) for methane is about 84 in terms of its impact over a 20-year timeframe. That means it traps 84 times more heat per mass unit than carbon dioxide (CO2) and 105 times the effect when accounting for aerosol interactions.
The history of the scientific discovery of climate change began in the early 19th century when ice ages and other natural changes in paleoclimate were first suspected and the natural greenhouse effect was first identified. In the late 19th century, scientists first argued that human emissions of greenhouse gases could change Earth's energy balance and climate. Many other theories of climate change were advanced, involving forces from volcanism to solar variation. In the 1960s, the evidence for the warming effect of carbon dioxide gas became increasingly convincing. Some scientists also pointed out that human activities that generated atmospheric aerosols could have cooling effects as well.
Climate change feedbacks are effects of global warming that amplify or diminish the effect of forces that initially cause the warming. Positive feedbacks enhance global warming while negative feedbacks weaken it. Feedbacks are important in the understanding of climate change because they play an important part in determining the sensitivity of the climate to warming forces. Climate forcings and feedbacks together determine how much and how fast the climate changes. Large positive feedbacks can lead to tipping points—abrupt or irreversible changes in the climate system—depending upon the rate and magnitude of the climate change.
A Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) is a greenhouse gas concentration trajectory adopted by the IPCC. Four pathways were used for climate modeling and research for the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) in 2014. The pathways describe different climate change scenarios, all of which are considered possible depending on the amount of greenhouse gases (GHG) emitted in the years to come. The RCPs – originally RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP6, and RCP8.5 – are labelled after a possible range of radiative forcing values in the year 2100. The higher values mean higher greenhouse gas emissions and therefore higher global temperatures and more pronounced effects of climate change. The lower RCP values, on the other hand, are more desirable for humans but require more stringent climate change mitigation efforts to achieve them.
References
- ↑ Tom V. Segalstad (October 25, 2010). "Biography of Tom Victor Segalstad". University of Oslo . Retrieved October 30, 2011.
- ↑ Tom Victor Segalstad, Natural History Museum of the University of Oslo, May 31, 2011
- ↑ International Geological Congress (August 6–14, 2008). "Metallogeny of the Arctic Region" (PDF). Retrieved October 30, 2011.
- ↑ "Appendix IV – Reviewers of the IPCC WGI Third Assessment Report", Working Group I: The Scientific Basis, IPCC, 2001
- ↑ Lawrence Solomon. "Models trump measurements". Financial Post . Archived from the original on October 23, 2011. Retrieved October 30, 2011.
- ↑ Ellen Kongsnes (February 20, 2010). "En kald vinter er ikke avgjørende". Stavanger Aftenblad (in Norwegian). Retrieved October 30, 2011.
- ↑ Inge Berge (March 31, 2008). "En politisk miljøbløff". NA24 (in Norwegian). Retrieved October 30, 2011.
- ↑ NTB (April 5, 2008). "Stoltenbergs ekspert er reveforsker". Hegnar Online (in Norwegian). Retrieved October 30, 2011.
- 1 2 Øystein Sjølie (July 1, 2008). "Hudfletter FNs klimapanel". E24 Næringsliv (in Norwegian). Retrieved October 30, 2011.
- ↑ Bellerby, Richard; Olsen, Are; Nondal, Gisle (August 12, 2008). "CO2-økningen er ikke naturlig". Forskning (in Norwegian). Retrieved October 30, 2011.
- ↑ Bellerby, Richard; Olsen, Are; Nondal, Gisle (May 7, 2008). "Atmosfærens CO2-økning er menneskeskapt". Forskning (in Norwegian). Retrieved October 30, 2011.