UK Threat Levels

UK Threat Levels
United Kingdom Terror Threat Levels
	Sign at the Ministry of Defence Main Building declaring a "HEIGHTENED" counter-terrorist response level
General information
Current level (National)	SUBSTANTIAL
Current level (Northern Ireland)	SUBSTANTIAL

Last updated November 03, 2024

The United Kingdom Terror Threat Levels, often referred to as UK Threat Levels, are the alert states that have been in use since 1 August 2006 by the British government to warn of forms of terrorist activity. In September 2010 the threat levels for Northern Ireland-related terrorism were also made available.^[1] In July 2019 changes were made to the terrorism threat level system, to reflect the threat posed by all forms of terrorism, irrespective of ideology. There is now a single national threat level describing the threat to the UK, which includes Islamist, Northern Ireland, left-wing and right-wing terrorism.^[1] Before 2006, a colour-based alert scheme known as BIKINI state was used.^[2] The response indicates how government departments and agencies and their staffs should react to each threat level.

Categories of threat

Since 23 July 2019, the Home Office has reported two different categories of terrorist threat:

National Threat Level.
Northern Ireland-related Threat Level to Northern Ireland^[1]

Previously, since 24 September 2010, the Home Office has reported three different categories of terrorist threat:^[3]^[4]

Threat from international terrorism.
Terrorism threat related to Northern Ireland in Northern Ireland itself.
Terrorism threat related to Northern Ireland in Great Britain (i.e. excluding Northern Ireland).

A fourth category of terrorist threat is also assessed but is not disclosed, relating to threats to sectors of the UK's critical national infrastructure such as the London Underground, National Rail network and power stations.^[5]

The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) is responsible for setting the threat level from international terrorism and the Security Service (MI5) is responsible for setting both threat levels related to Northern Ireland.^[1] The threat level informs decisions on protective security measures taken by public bodies, the police and the transport sector.^[6]

Threat levels

Threat level^[7]		Response^[7]
Critical	An attack is highly likely in the near future.	Exceptional	Maximum protective security. Critical measures to meet specific threats and to minimise vulnerability and risk.
Severe	An attack is highly likely.	Heightened	Additional and sustainable substantial and severe protective security measures reflecting the broad nature of the threat combined with specific business and geographical vulnerabilities and judgements on acceptable risk.
Substantial	An attack is likely.	Heightened
Moderate	An attack is possible, but not likely.	Normal	Routine protective security. Low and moderate measures appropriate to the business concerned.
Low	An attack is highly unlikely.	Normal

Threat Levels are decided using the following information:^[1]

Available intelligence. It is rare that specific threat information is available and can be relied upon. More often, judgements about the threat will be based on a wide range of information, which is often fragmentary, including the level and nature of current terrorist activity, comparison with events in other countries and previous attacks. Intelligence is only ever likely to reveal part of the picture.
Terrorist capability. An examination of what is known about the capabilities of the terrorists in question and the method they may use based on previous attacks or from intelligence. This would also analyse the potential scale of the attack.
Terrorist intentions. Using intelligence and publicly available information to examine the overall aims of the terrorists and the ways they may achieve them including what sort of targets they would consider attacking.
Timescale. The threat level expresses the likelihood of an attack in the near term. We know from past incidents that some attacks take years to plan, while others are put together more quickly. In the absence of specific intelligence, a judgement will need to be made about how close an attack might be to fruition. Threat levels do not have any set expiry date, but are regularly subject to review in order to ensure that they remain current.

History

Threat levels were originally produced by MI5's Counter-Terrorism Analysis Centre for internal use within the British government. Assessments known as Security Service Threat Reports or Security Service Reports were issued to assess the level of threat to British interests in a given country or region. They had six levels: Imminent, High, Significant, Moderate, Low and Negligible. Following terrorist attacks in Indonesia in 2002, the system was criticised by the Intelligence and Security Committee of Parliament (ISC) as insufficiently clear and needing to be of greater use to "customer departments".^[8]

The 7 July 2005 London bombings prompted the government to update the threat level system following a recommendation from the ISC that it should deliver "a greater transparency of the threat level and alert systems as a whole, and in particular [it is recommended] that more thought is given to what is put in the public domain about the level of threat and required level of alert." The system was accordingly simplified and made easier to understand.^[9] Since 2006, MI5 and the Home Office have published international terrorism threat levels for the entire UK on their websites, and since 2010 they have also published threat levels for Northern Ireland, with separate threat levels for Northern Ireland and the rest of the UK.^[10]

2019 'New Reporting Format'

In July 2019 changes were made to the terrorism threat level system creating a 'New Format' of threat levels, to reflect the threat posed by all forms of terrorism, irrespective of ideology. There is now a single national threat level describing the threat to the UK, which includes Islamist, Northern Ireland, left-wing and right-wing terrorism.^[1]

Changes to threat levels

The following table records changes to the threat levels from July 2019 – Present:

Date	National Threat Level	Northern Ireland-related Threat Level to Northern Ireland
23 July 2019	Severe	Severe
4 November 2019	Substantial
3 November 2020	Severe^{[lower-alpha 1]}
4 February 2021	Substantial
15 November 2021	Severe^{[lower-alpha 2]}
9 February 2022	Substantial
22 March 2022		Substantial
28 March 2023^[13]		Severe^{[lower-alpha 3]}
6 March 2024^[14]		Substantial

Old-format historical threat levels

Since 2006, information about the national threat level has been available on the MI5 and Home Office websites. In September 2010 the threat levels for Northern Ireland-related terrorism were also made available. The following table records changes to the threat levels from August 2006 – July 2019 before the 'New Format' was put into place:^[1]

Date	National Threat Level of International Terrorism	Threat from Northern Ireland-related terrorism
Date	National Threat Level of International Terrorism	in Northern Ireland	in Great Britain
1 August 2006	Severe	Not Reported
10 August 2006	Critical^{[lower-alpha 4]}
13 August 2006	Severe
30 June 2007	Critical^{[lower-alpha 5]}
4 July 2007	Severe
20 July 2009	Substantial
22 January 2010	Severe
24 September 2010	Severe	Severe	Substantial
11 July 2011	Substantial		Substantial
24 October 2012	Substantial		Moderate
29 August 2014	Severe		Moderate
11 May 2016	Severe		Substantial
23 May 2017	Critical^{[lower-alpha 6]}
27 May 2017	Severe
15 September 2017	Critical^{[lower-alpha 7]}
17 September 2017	Severe
1 March 2018	Severe		Moderate

↑ Threat level increased following the 2020 Vienna attack.^[11]
↑ Threat level increased following the Liverpool Women's Hospital bombing.^[12]
↑ Threat level increased following the shooting of John Caldwell.
↑ Threat level increased following the 2006 transatlantic aircraft plot.
↑ Threat level increased following the 2007 Glasgow Airport attack.
↑ Threat level increased following the Manchester Arena bombing.
↑ Threat level increased following the Parsons Green bombing.^[15]

Related Research Articles

Terrorism, in its broadest sense, is the use of violence against non-combatants to achieve political or ideological aims. The term is used in this regard primarily to refer to intentional violence during peacetime or in the context of war against non-combatants. There are various different definitions of terrorism, with no universal agreement about it. Different definitions of terrorism emphasize its randomness, its aim to instill fear, and its broader impact beyond its immediate victims.

Counterterrorism, also known as anti-terrorism, relates to the practices, military tactics, techniques, and strategies that governments, law enforcement, businesses, and intelligence agencies use to combat or eliminate terrorism.

MI5, officially the Security Service, is the United Kingdom's domestic counter-intelligence and security agency and is part of its intelligence machinery alongside the Secret Intelligence Service (MI6), Government Communications Headquarters (GCHQ), and Defence Intelligence (DI). MI5 is directed by the Joint Intelligence Committee (JIC), and the service is bound by the Security Service Act 1989. The service is directed to protect British parliamentary democracy and economic interests and to counter terrorism and espionage within the United Kingdom (UK).

In the United States, the Homeland Security Advisory System (HSAS) was a color-coded terrorism threat advisory scale created in March 2002 under the Bush administration in response to the September 11 attacks. The different levels triggered specific actions by federal agencies and state and local governments, and they affected the level of security at some airports and other public facilities. It was often called the "terror alert level" by the U.S. media. The system was replaced on April 27, 2011, with a new system called the National Terrorism Advisory System.

Elizabeth Lydia Manningham-Buller, Baroness Manningham-Buller, is a retired British intelligence officer. She worked as a teacher for three years before joining MI5, the British internal Security Service. She led the newly created Irish counter-terrorism section from 1992 and then became director in charge of surveillance and technical operations. She became Director General of MI5 in October 2002 and, in that capacity, led the Security Service's response to the 7 July 2005 London bombings. Following her retirement in April 2007, she became a crossbench life peer in 2008.

Terrorism and mass attacks in Canada includes acts of terrorism, as well as mass shootings, vehicle-ramming attacks, mass stabbings, and other such acts committed in Canada that people may associate with terroristic tactics but have not been classified as terrorism by the Canadian legal system.

The 7 July 2005 London bombings, also referred to as 7/7, were a series of four co-ordinated suicide attacks carried out by Islamist terrorists that targeted commuters travelling on London's public transport during the morning rush hour.

The Joint Terrorism Analysis Centre (JTAC) is an all-source intelligence organisation closely related to the United Kingdom Security Service which provides advice to the British government and firms within the Critical National Infrastructure on terrorist threats.

Left-wing terrorism or far-left terrorism is terrorism motivated by left-wing or far-left ideologies, committed with the aim of overthrowing current capitalist systems and replacing them with communist or socialist societies. Left-wing terrorism can also occur within already socialist states as criminal action against the current ruling government.

The Directorate of Military Intelligence is the military intelligence branch of the Defence Forces, the Irish armed forces, and the national intelligence service of Ireland. The organisation has responsibility for the safety and security of the Irish Defence Forces, its personnel, and supporting the national security of Ireland. The directorate operates domestic and foreign intelligence sections, providing intelligence to the Government of Ireland concerning threats to the security of the state and the national interest from internal and external sources.

Counter Terrorism Command (CTC) or SO15 is a Specialist Operations branch within London's Metropolitan Police Service. The Counter Terrorism Command was established as a result of the merging of the Anti-Terrorist Branch (SO13) and Special Branch (SO12) in October 2006, bringing together intelligence, operations, and investigative functions to form a single command. CTC has over 1,500 police officers and staff, and a number of investigators based overseas and also hosts the Counter Terrorism Policing headquarters.

The Special Detective Unit (SDU) is the main domestic security agency of the Garda Síochána, the national police force of Ireland, under the aegis of the Crime & Security Branch (CSB). It is the primary counter-terrorism and counter-espionage investigative unit within the state. The Special Detective Unit superseded the Special Branch, which itself replaced the older Criminal Investigation Department (CID), which was founded in 1921. They work in conjunction with the Defence Forces Directorate of Military Intelligence (J2) – Ireland's national intelligence service – on internal matters. The unit's headquarters are in Harcourt Street, Dublin City.

Radicalization is the process by which an individual or a group comes to adopt increasingly radical views in opposition to a political, social, or religious status quo. The ideas of society at large shape the outcomes of radicalization. Radicalization can result in both violent and nonviolent action – academic literature focuses on radicalization into violent extremism (RVE) or radicalisation leading to acts of terrorism. Multiple separate pathways can promote the process of radicalization, which can be independent but are usually mutually reinforcing.

The counter-terrorism page primarily deals with special police or military organizations that carry out arrest or direct combat with terrorists. This page deals with the other aspects of counter-terrorism:

Terrorism in the United Kingdom, according to the Home Office, poses a significant threat to the state. There have been various causes of terrorism in the UK. Before the 2000s, most attacks were linked to the Northern Ireland conflict. In the late 20th century there were also attacks by Islamic terrorist groups. Since 1970, there have been at least 3,395 terrorist-related deaths in the UK, the highest in western Europe. The vast majority of the deaths were linked to the Northern Ireland conflict and happened in Northern Ireland. In mainland Great Britain, there were 430 terrorist-related deaths between 1971 and 2001. Of these, 125 deaths were linked to the Northern Ireland conflict, and 305 deaths were linked to other causes, including 270 in the Lockerbie bombing. Since 2001, there have been almost 100 terrorist-related deaths in Great Britain.

CONTEST is the United Kingdom's counter-terrorism strategy, first developed by Sir David Omand and the Home Office in early 2003 as the immediate response to 9/11, and a revised version was made public in 2006. Further revisions were published on 24 March 2009, 11 July 2011 and June 2018. An Annual Report on the implementation of CONTEST was released in March 2010 and in April 2014. The aim of the strategy is "to reduce the risk to the UK and its interests overseas from terrorism so that people can go about their lives freely and with confidence." The success of this strategy is not linked to total elimination of the terrorist threat, but to reducing the threat sufficiently to allow the citizens a normal life free from fear.

The 2006 transatlantic aircraft plot was a terrorist plot to detonate liquid explosives, carried aboard airliners travelling from the United Kingdom to the United States and Canada, disguised as soft drinks. The plot was discovered by British Metropolitan Police during an extensive surveillance operation. As a result of the plot, unprecedented security measures were initially implemented at airports. The measures were gradually relaxed during the following weeks, but passengers are still not allowed to carry liquid containers larger than 100 ml onto commercial aircraft in their hand luggage in the UK and most other countries, as of 2024.

The National Terrorism Advisory System (NTAS) is a terrorism threat advisory scale used by the US Department of Homeland Security since April 26, 2011.

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Islamic terrorism has been carried out in Europe by the jihadist groups Islamic State (ISIL) or Al-Qaeda as well as Islamist lone wolves since the late 20th century. Europol, which releases the annual EU Terrorism Situation and Trend report (TE-SAT), used the term "Islamist terrorism" in reports for the years 2006–2010, "religiously inspired terrorism" for the years 2011–2014, and has used "jihadist terrorism" since then. Europol defines jihadism as "a violent ideology exploiting traditional Islamic concepts".

References

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Threat Levels". www.mi5.gov.uk. Retrieved 15 August 2021. Text was copied from this source, which is available under an Open Government Licence v3.0. © Crown copyright.
↑ Threat Levels Archived 11 June 2007 at the Wayback Machine , July 2006
↑ "Irish terror attack a 'strong possibility'". BBC News. 25 September 2010. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
↑ "Press Release: Increased risk of Irish-related terrorism". United Kingdom Home Office. 24 September 2010. Retrieved 20 December 2010.
↑ Bunkall, Alistair (4 June 2016). "Was it a mistake to lower the UK terror threat before London Bridge attack?". Sky News. Retrieved 4 June 2016.
↑ Foley, Frank (2013). Countering Terrorism in Britain and France: Institutions, Norms and the Shadow of the Past. Cambridge University Press. p. 166. ISBN 978-1-107-02969-9.
1 2 "Threat Levels and building response plans". GOV.UK. Retrieved 15 August 2021.
↑ Hennessey, Thomas; Thomas, Claire (2011). Spooks the Unofficial History of MI5 From the First Atom Spy to 7/7 1945–2009. Amberley Publishing Limited. pp. 228–9. ISBN 978-1-4456-0801-3.
↑ Staniforth, Andrew; Sampson, Fraser (2012). The Routledge Companion to UK Counter-Terrorism. Routledge. p. 276. ISBN 978-1-136-25430-7.
↑ "Threat levels". MI5. Retrieved 1 April 2017.
↑ Cascani, Dominic (3 November 2020). "UK terrorism threat level raised to severe". BBC. Retrieved 16 August 2021.
↑ "Liverpool Women's Hospital explosion declared a terror incident". BBC News. 15 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021.
↑ Jamie Grierson (28 March 2023). "Northern Ireland terrorism threat level rises to 'severe'". The Guardian . Retrieved 28 March 2023.
↑ "NI terrorism threat level reduced to substantial". BBC News. 6 March 2024. Retrieved 6 March 2024.
↑ Ward, Victoria (15 September 2017). "UK terror threat level raised to critical, meaning an attack is imminent, Prime Minister says'". The Telegraph. Retrieved 15 September 2017.

External links

Current Threat Level, Home Office

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[12] Threat level increased following the 2020 Vienna attack.^[11]

[14] Threat level increased following the Liverpool Women's Hospital bombing.^[12]

[16] Threat level increased following the shooting of John Caldwell.

[18] Threat level increased following the 2006 transatlantic aircraft plot.

[19] Threat level increased following the 2007 Glasgow Airport attack.

[20] Threat level increased following the Manchester Arena bombing.

[22] Threat level increased following the Parsons Green bombing.^[15]

[:0-1] 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Threat Levels". www.mi5.gov.uk. Retrieved 15 August 2021. Text was copied from this source, which is available under an Open Government Licence v3.0. © Crown copyright.

[2] Threat Levels Archived 11 June 2007 at the Wayback Machine , July 2006

[3] "Irish terror attack a 'strong possibility'". BBC News. 25 September 2010. Retrieved 20 December 2010.

[4] "Press Release: Increased risk of Irish-related terrorism". United Kingdom Home Office. 24 September 2010. Retrieved 20 December 2010.

[5] Bunkall, Alistair (4 June 2016). "Was it a mistake to lower the UK terror threat before London Bridge attack?". Sky News. Retrieved 4 June 2016.

[Foley2013-6] Foley, Frank (2013). Countering Terrorism in Britain and France: Institutions, Norms and the Shadow of the Past. Cambridge University Press. p. 166. ISBN 978-1-107-02969-9.

[gov.uk-7] 1 2 "Threat Levels and building response plans". GOV.UK. Retrieved 15 August 2021.

[HennesseyThomas2011-8] Hennessey, Thomas; Thomas, Claire (2011). Spooks the Unofficial History of MI5 From the First Atom Spy to 7/7 1945–2009. Amberley Publishing Limited. pp. 228–9. ISBN 978-1-4456-0801-3.

[StaniforthSampson2012-9] Staniforth, Andrew; Sampson, Fraser (2012). The Routledge Companion to UK Counter-Terrorism. Routledge. p. 276. ISBN 978-1-136-25430-7.

[Threat_levels-10] "Threat levels". MI5. Retrieved 1 April 2017.

[11] Cascani, Dominic (3 November 2020). "UK terrorism threat level raised to severe". BBC. Retrieved 16 August 2021.

[severe-liverpool-13] "Liverpool Women's Hospital explosion declared a terror incident". BBC News. 15 November 2021. Retrieved 15 November 2021.

[15] Jamie Grierson (28 March 2023). "Northern Ireland terrorism threat level rises to 'severe'". The Guardian . Retrieved 28 March 2023.

[17] "NI terrorism threat level reduced to substantial". BBC News. 6 March 2024. Retrieved 6 March 2024.

[21] Ward, Victoria (15 September 2017). "UK terror threat level raised to critical, meaning an attack is imminent, Prime Minister says'". The Telegraph. Retrieved 15 September 2017.

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