World Weather Attribution is an academic collaboration studying extreme event attribution, calculations of the impact of climate change on extreme meteorological events such as heat waves, droughts, and storms. When an extreme event occurs, the project computes the likelihood that the occurrence, intensity, and duration of the event was due to climate change. The project specializes in producing reports rapidly, while news of the event is still fresh. [1] [2] [3]
World Weather Attribution was founded in 2014 by climatologists Friederike Otto, who continues as leader, and Geert Jan van Oldenborgh. [4] Participating institutions are Imperial College London, the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, Laboratoire des sciences du climat et de l'environnement, Princeton University, the U.S. National Center for Atmospheric Research, ETH Zurich, IIT Delhi, and climate impact specialists at the Red Cross / Red Crescent Climate Centre. [5]
The WWA response to an extreme meteorological event has three parts: [1] [6]
Results are synthesized into a report and published first rapidly, then eventually through the scientific review process.
The following are examples of extreme cold, flood, heat, and drought events that have been studied by WWA.
Extreme weather includes unexpected, unusual, severe, or unseasonal weather; weather at the extremes of the historical distribution—the range that has been seen in the past. Extreme events are based on a location's recorded weather history. They are defined as lying in the most unusual ten percent. The main types of extreme weather include heat waves, cold waves and heavy precipitation or storm events, such as tropical cyclones. The effects of extreme weather events are economic costs, loss of human lives, droughts, floods, landslides. Severe weather is a particular type of extreme weather which poses risks to life and property.
A heat wave or heatwave, sometimes described as extreme heat, is a period of abnormally hot weather. A time period of five consecutive days is often used to define a heat wave but the exact definition of a heat waves can vary for different countries. A heat wave is usually measured relative to the usual climate in the area and to normal temperatures for the season. Temperatures that humans from a hotter climate consider normal, can be regarded as a heat wave in a cooler area. This would be the case if the warm temperatures are outside the normal climate pattern for that area. High humidity often occurs during heat waves as well. This is especially the case in oceanic climate countries. Heat waves have become more frequent, and more intense over land, across almost every area on Earth since the 1950s, the increase in frequency and duration being caused by climate change.
The climate of India consists of a wide range of weather conditions across a vast geographic scale and varied topography. Based on the Köppen system, India encompasses a diverse array of climatic subtypes. These range from arid and semi-arid regions in the west to highland, sub-arctic, tundra, and ice cap climates in the northern Himalayan regions, varying with elevation. The northern lowlands experience subtropical conditions, with some areas at higher altitudes, like Srinagar, touching continental climates. In contrast, much of the south and the east exhibit tropical climate conditions, which support lush rainforests in these territories. Many regions have starkly different microclimates, making it one of the most climatically diverse countries in the world. The country's meteorological department follows the international standard of four seasons with some local adjustments: winter ,spring(February to March),summer, South West monsoon and North-east monsoon or autumn.
Heidi Cullen is the Director of Communications and Strategic Initiatives at the Monterey Bay Aquarium Research Institute (MBARI). Her efforts there are focused on inspiring the next generation of ocean explorers, communicating about the ocean’s critical role in our climate system, and advancing the use of autonomous technology to protect ocean health. Cullen was previously the Chief Scientist for the non-profit science communication organization Climate Central, where she was part of the team that incubated and launched the World Weather Attribution initiative. She taught a course in science communication at nearby Princeton University and is the author of The Weather of the Future. A climate scientist and science communicator, she served as The Weather Channel's climate expert from 2003 to 2008 and co-hosted Forecast Earth, the first hour-long television show dedicated to communicating climate change science, impacts, and solutions.
Australia's climate is governed mostly by its size and by the hot, sinking air of the subtropical high pressure belt. This moves north-west and north-east with the seasons. The climate is variable, with frequent droughts lasting several seasons, thought to be caused in part by the El Niño-Southern Oscillation. Australia has a wide variety of climates due to its large geographical size. The largest part of Australia is desert or semi-arid. Only the south-east and south-west corners have a temperate climate and moderately fertile soil. The northern part of the country has a tropical climate, varying between grasslands and desert. Australia holds many heat-related records: the continent has the hottest extended region year-round, the areas with the hottest summer climate, and the highest sunshine duration.
Natural calamities in India, many of them related to the climate of India, causes of the massive losses of life and property. Droughts, flash floods, cyclones, avalanches, landslides brought by torrential rains, and snowstorms pose the greatest threats. A natural disaster might be caused by earthquakes, flooding, volcanic eruption, landslides, hurricanes etc. In order to be classified as a disaster, it will need to have a profound environmental effect and/or human loss and frequently incurs a financial loss. Other dangers include frequent summer dust storms, which usually track from north to south; they cause extensive property damage in North India and deposit large amounts of dust and dirt from arid regions. Hail is also common in parts of India, causing severe damage to standing crops such as rice and wheat and many more crops and effects many people.
Severe weather is any dangerous meteorological phenomenon with the potential to cause damage, serious social disruption, or loss of human life. These vary depending on the latitude, altitude, topography, and atmospheric conditions. High winds, hail, excessive precipitation, and wildfires are forms and effects, as are thunderstorms, downbursts, tornadoes, waterspouts, tropical cyclones, and extratropical cyclones. Regional and seasonal phenomena include blizzards,snowstorms, ice storms, and duststorms.
Pakistan's climate varies from a continental type of climate in the north (Gilgit-Baltistan,Kashmir,KPK), a mountainous dry climate in the west (Baluchistan), a wet climate in the East (Punjab) an arid climate in the Thar Desert, to a tropical climate in the southeast (Sindh), characterized by extreme variations in temperature, both seasonally and daily, because it is located on a great landmass barely north of the Tropic of Cancer.
The climate of Africa is a range of climates such as the equatorial climate, the tropical wet and dry climate, the tropical monsoon climate, the semi-arid climate, the desert climate, the humid subtropical climate, and the subtropical highland climate. Temperate climates are rare across the continent except at very high elevations and along the fringes. In fact, the climate of Africa is more variable by rainfall amount than by temperatures, which are consistently high. African deserts are the sunniest and the driest parts of the continent, owing to the prevailing presence of the subtropical ridge with subsiding, hot, dry air masses. Africa holds many heat-related records: the continent has the hottest extended region year-round, the areas with the hottest summer climate, the highest sunshine duration, and more.
The climate of Uttar Pradesh is a tropical monsoon climate, consisting mainly of a humid subtropical climate with dry winter (Cwa). Parts of western Uttar Pradesh consist of a hot semi-arid climate (BSh). The uniformity of the vast Indo-Gangetic Plain covering most of the state causes it to have a predominantly single climate pattern with minor regional variations.
Climate change in Pakistan is a major issue for the country. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change. As with the changing climate in South Asia as a whole, the climate of Pakistan has changed over the past several decades, with significant impacts on the environment and people. In addition to increased heat, drought and extreme weather in parts of the country, the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas has impacted some of the important rivers of Pakistan. Between 1999 and 2018, Pakistan ranked 5th in the countries affected by extreme weather caused by climate change.
The 2016 Indian heat wave was a major heat wave in April and May of that year. A national record high temperature of 51.0 °C (123.8 °F) was set in the town of Phalodi, in the state of Rajasthan. Over 1,100 people died with 330 million affected to some degree. There were also water shortages with drought worsening the impact of the heat wave.
Friederike (Fredi) Elly Luise Otto is a climatologist who as of December 2021 works as a Senior Lecturer at the Grantham Institute for Climate Change and the Environment at Imperial College London. She is an Honorary Research Associate of the Environmental Change Institute (ECI) at the University of Oxford. Her research focuses on answering the question whether and to what extent extreme weather conditions change as a result of external climate drivers. A highly recognized expert in the field of attribution research, she examines the extent to which human-caused climate change as well as vulnerability and exposure are responsible for events such heat waves, droughts and floods. Together with climate scientist Geert Jan van Oldenborgh she founded the international project World Weather Attribution which she still leads. In 2021, she was included in the Time 100, Time's annual list of the 100 most influential people in the world. She was also one of ten scientists who had had important roles in scientific developments in 2021 highlighted in the scientific journal Nature.
The effects of climate change on the water cycle are profound and have been described as an intensification or a strengthening of the water cycle. This effect has been observed since at least 1980. One example is when heavy rain events become even stronger. The effects of climate change on the water cycle have important negative effects on the availability of freshwater resources, as well as other water reservoirs such as oceans, ice sheets, the atmosphere and soil moisture. The water cycle is essential to life on Earth and plays a large role in the global climate system and ocean circulation. The warming of our planet is expected to be accompanied by changes in the water cycle for various reasons. For example, a warmer atmosphere can contain more water vapor which has effects on evaporation and rainfall.
Extreme event attribution, also known as attribution science, is a relatively new field of study in meteorology and climate science that tries to measure how ongoing climate change directly affects extreme events, for example extreme weather events. Attribution science aims to determine which such recent events can be explained by or linked to a warming atmosphere and are not simply due to natural variations.
Geert Jan van Oldenborgh was a Dutch climatologist and physicist. Through his career he studied climate modelling of adverse weather events and was known as a pioneer of attribution science, driving public awareness of how climate change is linked to extreme weather events. He was also the creator of a digital platform, Climate Explorer, an online meteorological data repository and platform for climate data analysis.
In 2022, several areas of the world experienced heat waves. Heat waves were especially notable in East Asia, the Indian subcontinent, Australia, western Europe, the United States, and southern South America. 2022 heat waves accounted for record-breaking temperatures and, in some regions, heat-related deaths. Heat waves were worsened by the effects of climate change, and they exacerbated droughts and wildfires.
The 2022 India–Pakistan heat wave was an extreme weather event which resulted in the hottest March in the subcontinent since 1901. The hot season arrived unusually early in the year and extended into April, affecting a large part of India's northwest and Pakistan. The heatwave was combined with a drought, with rainfall being only a quarter to a third of normal. It occurred during a La Niña event, in which heat records are generally less likely.
From June to 31 August 2022, China had a severe heat wave which affected several provinces and municipalities. To date, it is the country's worst heat wave to have existed. According to weather historian Maximiliano Herrera, it is the most severe heat wave recorded anywhere in the world.