2002 Portuguese legislative election

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2002 Portuguese legislative election
Flag of Portugal.svg
  1999 17 March 2002 2005  

230 seats to the Portuguese Assembly
116 seats needed for a majority
Registered8,902,713 Increase2.svg0.4%
Turnout5,473,655 (61.5%)
Increase2.svg0.4 pp
 First partySecond partyThird party
 
Jose Manuel Barroso, EU-kommissionens ordforande, under ett mote i Folketinget 2006-05-19 (1).jpg
Ferro Rodrigues.jpg
Paulo Portas 2009 (cropped).jpg
Leader José Durão Barroso Ferro Rodrigues Paulo Portas
Party PSD PS CDS–PP
Leader since2 May 199920 January 200222 March 1998
Leader's seat Lisbon [1] Lisbon [2] Aveiro [3]
Last election81 seats, 32.3%115 seats, 44.1%15 seats, 8.3%
Seats won1059614
Seat changeIncrease2.svg 24Decrease2.svg 19Decrease2.svg 1
Popular vote2,200,7652,068,584477,350
Percentage40.2%37.8%8.7%
SwingIncrease2.svg 7.9 pp Decrease2.svg 6.3 pp Increase2.svg 0.4 pp

 Fourth partyFifth party
 
Carlos Carvalhas no XIX Congresso do PCP (cropped).png
Deputados do Bloco de Esquerda (16) (4026598621).jpg
Leader Carlos Carvalhas Francisco Louçã
Party PCP BE
Alliance CDU
Leader since5 December 199224 March 1999
Leader's seat Lisbon [4] Lisbon [5]
Last election17 seats, 9.0%2 seats, 2.4%
Seats won123
Seat changeDecrease2.svg 5Increase2.svg 1
Popular vote379,870153,877
Percentage6.9%2.7%
SwingDecrease2.svg 2.0 pp Increase2.svg 0.4 pp

2002 Portuguese legislative election - Results.svg
2002 portuguese election.svg

Prime Minister before election

António Guterres
PS

Prime Minister after election

José Manuel Barroso
PSD

The 2002 Portuguese legislative election took place on 17 March. The election renewed all 230 members of the Assembly of the Republic.

Contents

These elections were called after the resignation of the then incumbent Prime Minister, António Guterres after the defeat of the Socialist Party in the 2001 local elections. That fact, plus the problematic state of the country's finances were the main arguments of the right-wing parties, which led them to be the favourites to win the election.

With just over 40% of the votes cast, the Social Democrats regained the status as the largest political force in Portugal, although the Socialists won almost 38% of the vote. This was the closest legislative election in Portuguese democracy until 2024. This short distance also appears on the electoral map, with each party winning eleven of the 22 districts, while the PS won the most populous, Lisbon and Porto. As a result, the Social Democrats fail to win the absolute majority they had between 1987 and 1995.

As no Party got an absolute majority, the Social Democrats formed a coalition with the right-wing People's Party. The left-wing Democratic Unity Coalition achieved the lowest result ever, finishing in the third place in its traditional strongholds, Évora and Setúbal. The Left Bloc gained one MP. Turnout was slightly higher than it was in 1999 but remained quite low, marking a growing separation between the politics and the Portuguese people, mainly due to the image of the politicians as corrupts and the idea that all the parties are the same.

Voter turnout was slightly higher than in 1999, as 61.5% of the electorate cast a ballot.

Background

After the disappointing results of the Socialist Party (PS) in the 1999 elections, the PS government entered in a series of crisis. [6] Resignations of ministers from government and incapacity of passing legislation in Parliament led to controversial, and weird, alliances, like the 2000 and 2001 budgets which were approved by a sole CDS – People's Party (CDS–PP) Member of Parliament, Daniel Campelo, in exchange for the government approving a cheese factory in Campelo's hometown, Ponte de Lima. [7]

Fall of the government

The Socialist Party suffered a big, and unexpected, defeat in the December 2001 local elections. [8] The party lost major cities across the country, mainly Lisbon, Porto, Sintra and Coimbra to the Social Democratic Party. Due to this surprising defeat, Prime Minister António Guterres announced he was to tender his resignation as Prime Minister in order to avoid the country falling "into a political swamp". [9] Shortly after, President Jorge Sampaio accepted Guterres resignation and called snap elections for March 2002. [10]

Leadership changes and challenges

PSD 2000 leadership election

After the 1999 election defeat, Durão Barroso's leadership started to be challenged and criticized. [11] In January 2000, Durão Barroso called a snap party congress to resolve the leadership dispute. [12] Alongside Barroso, Pedro Santana Lopes and Luís Marques Mendes also ran. Durão Barroso was reelected as PSD leader and the results were the following:

Ballot: 27 February 2000
CandidateVotes%
José Manuel Durão Barroso 46950.3
Pedro Santana Lopes 31333.6
Luís Marques Mendes 15016.1
Turnout932
Source: Results

PS 2002 leadership election

Following the resignation of António Guterres as Prime Minister and PS leader, [13] the party started the process to elect a new leader. The popular minister in Guterres cabinet, Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues, and PS member Paulo Penedos, were the two candidates on the ballot. Around 121,000 PS members were registered to vote. [14] In the end, Ferro Rodrigues got almost unanimous support by being elected with almost 97% of the votes. [15] The results were the following:

Ballot: 18 and 19 January 2002
CandidateVotes%
Eduardo Ferro Rodrigues 96.5
Paulo Penedos 2.7
Blank/Invalid ballots0.8
Turnout
Source: Results

Electoral system

Official logo of the election. Eleicoes legislativas 2002.png
Official logo of the election.

The Assembly of the Republic has 230 members elected to four-year terms. Governments do not require absolute majority support of the Assembly to hold office, as even if the number of opposers of government is larger than that of the supporters, the number of opposers still needs to be equal or greater than 116 (absolute majority) for both the Government's Programme to be rejected or for a motion of no confidence to be approved. [16]

The number of seats assigned to each district depends on the district magnitude. [17] The use of the d'Hondt method makes for a higher effective threshold than certain other allocation methods such as the Hare quota or Sainte-Laguë method, which are more generous to small parties. [18]

For these elections, and compared with the 1999 elections, the MPs distributed by districts were the following: [19]

DistrictNumber of MPsMap
Lisbon (–1)48
Porto (+1)38
Braga (+1)18
Setúbal 17
Aveiro 15
Leiria, Santarém and Coimbra 10
Viseu 9
Faro 8
Viana do Castelo 6
Azores, Castelo Branco, Madeira and Vila Real 5
Bragança and Guarda 4
Beja, Évora (–1) and Portalegre 3
Europe and Outside Europe2

Parties

The table below lists the parties represented in the Assembly of the Republic during the 8th legislature (1999–2002) and that also partook in the election:

NameIdeologyPolitical positionLeader1999 result
 %Seats
PS Socialist Party
Partido Socialista
Social democracy Centre-left Ferro Rodrigues 44.1%
115 / 230
PPD/PSD Social Democratic Party
Partido Social Democrata
Liberal conservatism
Classical liberalism
Centre-right José Manuel Durão Barroso 32.3%
81 / 230
PCP Portuguese Communist Party
Partido Comunista Português
Communism
Marxism–Leninism
Far-left Carlos Carvalhas
9.0%
[lower-alpha 1]
15 / 230
PEV Ecologist Party "The Greens"
Partido Ecologista "Os Verdes"
Eco-socialism
Green politics
Left-wing Isabel Castro
2 / 230
CDS-PP CDS – People's Party
Centro Democrático e Social – Partido Popular
Christian democracy
Conservatism
Centre-right
to right-wing
Paulo Portas 8.3%
15 / 230
BE Left Bloc
Bloco de Esquerda
Democratic socialism
Anti-capitalism
Left-wing Francisco Louçã 2.4%
2 / 230

Campaign period

Party slogans

Party or allianceOriginal sloganEnglish translationRefs
PS « Fazer bem »"Doing well" [20]
PSD « Somos todos Portugal »"We are all Portugal" [21]
CDU « Mudar para melhor »"Change for the better" [22]
CDS–PP « O braço direito de Portugal »"Portugal's right-hand man" [23]
BE « Com Razões Fortes »"With Strong Reasons" [24]

Candidates' debates

2002 Portuguese legislative election debates
DateOrganisersModerator(s)   P Present   A Absent invitee N Non-invitee 
PS
Rodrigues
PSD
Barroso
CDU
Carvalhas
CDS–PP
Portas
BE
Louçã
Refs
26 Feb SIC PPNNN [25]
12 Mar RTP1 Judite de Sousa
José Alberto Carvalho
PPPPP [26]

Opinion polling

The following table shows the opinion polls of voting intention of the Portuguese voters before the election. Those parties that are listed were represented in parliament (1999-2002). Included is also the result of the Portuguese general elections in 1999 and 2002 for reference.

  Exit poll

Date ReleasedPolling Firm PS PSD (1999-2008).png Logo of the Unitary Democratic Coalition.svg CDS-PP (1991-2009).png LeftBloc.svg OthersLead
17 Mar 2002Leg. election37.8
96
40.2
105
6.9
12
8.7
14
2.7
3
3.7
0
2.4
17 Mar 2002 (20:00) RTP1 - Universidade Católica 36.0–41.037.0–42.05.5–8.07.5–10.03.0–4.01.0
17 Mar 2002 (20:00) SIC - Eurosondagem 35.5–39.340.1–43.96.2–8.46.2–8.42.0–3.44.6
17 Mar 2002 (20:00) TVI - INTERCAMPUS 35.5–40.537.8–42.86.8–9.85.3–8.31.6–4.22.3
15 Mar 2002 Marktest 35.243.78.16.03.73.38.5
15 Mar 2002 Lusófona 40.943.65.77.12.82.7
15 Mar 2002 Eurosondagem 39.341.46.95.63.53.32.1
15 Mar 2002 Eurequipa 33.944.77.19.13.22.010.8
15 Mar 2002 Universidade Católica 37.542.26.96.83.63.04.7
14 Mar 2002 INTERCAMPUS 39.041.08.05.03.04.02.0
14 Mar 2002 Aximage 40.044.07.06.02.01.04.0
13 Mar 2002 SIC/Visão 36.241.06.65.22.09.04.8
8 Mar 2002 Marktest 36.043.06.07.04.04.07.0
2 Mar 2002 Eurosondagem 35.038.06.05.02.014.03.0
27 Feb 2002 Universidade Católica 35.643.520.97.9
Feb 2002 Marktest 34.745.76.77.32.53.111.0
Jan 2002 Marktest 33.841.89.68.12.54.28.0
22 Dec 2001 Marktest 34.039.011.09.03.04.05.0
16 Dec 2001 Local elections 37.141.010.64.01.26.13.9
Nov 2001 Marktest 35.433.710.611.62.95.81.7
Oct 2001 Marktest 35.933.910.511.52.75.52.0
26 Jan 2001 Marktest 37.033.010.011.03.06.04.0
8 May 2000 Universidade Católica [lower-alpha 2] 40.932.56.78.13.08.88.4
10 Oct 1999 Leg. election 44.1
115
32.3
81
9.0
17
8.3
15
2.4
2
3.9
0
11.9

National summary of votes and seats

Summary of the 17 March 2002 Assembly of the Republic elections results
Portugal Parliament 2002.svg
PartiesVotes%± MPs MPs %/
votes %
1999 2002±%±
Social Democratic 2,200,76540.21Increase2.svg7.981105Increase2.svg2445.65Increase2.svg10.41.14
Socialist 2,068,58437.79Decrease2.svg6.311596Decrease2.svg1941.74Decrease2.svg8.31.10
People's 477,3508.72Increase2.svg0.41514Decrease2.svg16.09Decrease2.svg0.40.70
Democratic Unity Coalition [lower-alpha 3] 379,8706.94Decrease2.svg2.11712Decrease2.svg55.22Decrease2.svg2.20.75
Left Bloc 149,9662.74Increase2.svg0.323Increase2.svg11.30Increase2.svg0.40.47
Portuguese Workers' Communist 36,1930.66Decrease2.svg0.000Steady2.svg00.00Steady2.svg0.00.0
Earth 15,5400.28Decrease2.svg0.100Steady2.svg00.00Steady2.svg0.00.0
People's Monarchist 12,3980.23Decrease2.svg0.100Steady2.svg00.00Steady2.svg0.00.0
Humanist 11,4720.21Increase2.svg0.100Steady2.svg00.00Steady2.svg0.00.0
National Renovator 4,7120.0900.000.0
Workers Party of Socialist Unity 4,3160.08Steady2.svg0.000Steady2.svg00.00Steady2.svg0.00.0
Left Bloc/People's Democratic Union [lower-alpha 4] 3,9110.0700.000.0
National Solidarity [lower-alpha 5] [27] 00.00Decrease2.svg0.200Steady2.svg00.00Steady2.svg0.00.0
Total valid5,365,88198.03Increase2.svg0.0230230Steady2.svg0100.00Steady2.svg0.0
Blank ballots55,1211.01Decrease2.svg0.1
Invalid ballots52,6530.96Increase2.svg0.0
Total5,473,655100.00
Registered voters/turnout8,902,71361.48Increase2.svg0.4
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições
Vote share
PSD
40.21%
PS
37.79%
CDS-PP
8.72%
CDU
6.94%
BE
2.74%
PCTP/MRPP
0.66%
Others
0.96%
Blank/Invalid
1.97%
Parliamentary seats
PSD
45.65%
PS
41.74%
CDS-PP
6.09%
CDU
5.22%
BE
1.30%

Distribution by constituency

Results of the 2002 election of the Portuguese Assembly of the Republic
by constituency
Constituency%S%S%S%S%STotal
S
PSD PS CDS–PP CDU BE
Azores 45.4341.028.4-1.4-1.4-5
Aveiro 46.4833.5512.922.6-1.8-15
Beja 21.2-43.523.7-24.211.9-3
Braga 44.4937.489.314.4-1.7-18
Bragança 53.2330.0110.9-1.9-0.9-4
Castelo Branco 38.3246.137.1-3.3-1.5-5
Coimbra 41.0541.356.7-5.1-2.4-10
Évora 25.3142.814.6-21.811.8-3
Faro 37.7440.548.3-6.3-2.8-8
Guarda 48.5234.729.6-2.2-1.2-4
Leiria 50.8629.539.814.1-2.2-10
Lisbon 35.71838.7208.548.844.7248
Madeira 53.5425.8112.1-2.5-3.1-5
Portalegre 30.6145.226.4-12.4-1.6-3
Porto 40.01641.2178.434.612.7138
Santarém 38.1438.448.418.612.9-10
Setúbal 24.7539.376.9120.544.6-17
Viana do Castelo 45.5335.3310.3-3.5-1.8-6
Vila Real 54.1331.928.1-2.0-0.9-5
Viseu 52.1531.1310.611.5-1.4-9
Europe36.9142.115.0-4.8-1.1-2
Outside Europe66.3221.5-3.4-0.9-0.4-2
Total40.210537.8968.7146.9122.73230
Source: Comissão Nacional de Eleições

Maps

Aftermath

After the elections, PSD and CDS–PP formed a coalition government, the first since the Democratic Alliance (AD) in the early 1980's. [28] This government was marked by the fragile fiscal and economic situation of the country and the 2003 Casa Pia child sexual abuse scandal. During this government, Portugal became a major ally in the War in Iraq, which divided public opinion. [29] In the 2004 European Parliament election in Portugal, the PSD/CDS–PP coalition Força Portugal suffered a big defeat by gathering just 33% of the votes, against the 44% of the Socialist Party. A few days later, José Manuel Durão Barroso announced he was resigning from the post of Prime Minister in order to become President of the European Commission. [30] Despite pleas for a snap legislative election from Opposition parties, President Jorge Sampaio decided to nominate the new PSD leader, Pedro Santana Lopes as Prime Minister. [31]

Fall of the government

Santana Lopes government was marked with deep disagreements and disputes within his own party, the Social Democratic Party, which began to damage the government's actions. [32] One of these disputes was the resignation of Youth and Sports Minister, Henrique Chaves, which was a close ally of Santana. This resignation precipitated the fall of the government, with Chaves accusing Santana of not being "loyal and truthful". [33] Just five months after swearing in Santana Lopes as Prime Minister, President Jorge Sampaio gave a speech in which he accused the government of "contradictions and lack of coordination that contributed to its discredit", [34] and used his power of dissolution of Parliament and called a snap election, so far the only time till date such power was used in Portuguese democracy by a President. [35] [36] Santana Lopes disagreed with the President's decision but respected it and announced his resignation. [37] A new election was called, by the President, for 20 February 2005. [38]

Further reading

Notes

  1. The Portuguese Communist Party (PCP) and the Ecologist Party "The Greens" (PEV) contested the 1999 election in a coalition called Unitary Democratic Coalition (CDU) and won a combined 9% of the vote and elected 17 MPs to parliament.
  2. Results presented here exclude abstention (19.7%). With their inclusion results are: PS: 32.8%; PSD: 26.1%; CDS-PP: 6.5%; CDU: 5.4%; BE: 2.4%; Others/Invalid: 7.1%.
  3. Portuguese Communist Party (10 MPs) and "The Greens" (2 MPs) ran in coalition.
  4. Left Bloc / People's Democratic Union joint electoral list only in Madeira.
  5. The National Solidarity Party (PSN) ran a list in Vila Real district, but dropped out before election day and got just 7 votes. In the certified results, the votes are counted as invalid.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Porto (Assembly of the Republic constituency)</span> Constituency of the Assembly of the Republic, the national legislature of Portugal

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See also