Climate change is posing an increasing threat to global socio- [1] economic development and environmental sustainability. Developing countries with low adaptive capacity and high vulnerability to the phenomenon are disproportionately affected. Climate change in Kenya is increasingly impacting the lives of Kenya's citizens and the environment. [1] Climate Change has led to more frequent extreme weather events like droughts which last longer than usual, irregular and unpredictable rainfall, flooding and increasing temperatures.
The effects of these climatic changes have made already existing challenges with water security, food security and economic growth even more difficult. Harvests and agricultural production which account for about 33% [2] of total Gross Domestic Product (GDP) [3] are also at risk. The increased temperatures, rainfall variability in arid and semi-arid areas, and strong winds associated with tropical cyclones have combined to create favorable conditions for the breeding and migration of pests. [4] An increase in temperature of up to 2.5 °C by 2050 is predicted to increase the frequency of extreme events such as floods and droughts. [1]
Hot and dry conditions in Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs) make droughts or flooding brought on by extreme weather changes even more dangerous. Coastal communities are already experiencing sea level rise and associated challenges such as saltwater intrusion. [1] Lake Victoria, Lake Turkana and other lakes have significantly increased in size between 2010 and 2020 [5] flooding lakeside communities. [6] All these factors impact at-risk populations like marginalized communities, women and the youth. [3]
Kenya's annual greenhouse gas emissions are low at less than 1 tonne per person, [7] totaling less than 100 million tonnes of CO2eq a year, [8] [9] [10] of which almost a third is from deforestation. [11] In 2020 Kenya submitted a Forest Reference Level to the UNFCCC. [12] In terms of global context, Kenya accounted for just 0.1% of CO2 emissions from combustible fuels in 2021. [13]
Year | tCO2 / Capit |
---|---|
2012 | 0.244 |
2013 | 0.265 |
2014 | 0.301 |
2015 | 0.319 |
2016 | 0.333 |
2017 | 0.347 |
2018 | 0.325 |
2019 | 0.324 |
2020 | 0.303 |
2021 | 0.329 |
Half of Kenya's electricity is produced through hydropower. However, because the generation and distribution of electricity is unreliable, some manufacturing firms generate supplemental power with fossil fuel sources. Droughts and increasing evaporation also decreased hydropower capacity, which will in turn increase the use of more polluting energy sources. [15] [ failed verification ]
Human activities increases the strength of greenhouse effect which contributes to climate change. Most likely is carbon dioxide from burning fossil fuels: coal, oil, and natural gas.
The temperature anomalies was positive every year since 2000 with respect to the climatological mean of the years 1981 to 2010 according to satellite data. [16] Analysis of climate trends in Kenya's Arid and Semi Arid (ASAL) areas shows an increase in temperature and a decrease in rainfall between 1977 and 2014. [17] Climate change impacts are predicted to be particularly pronounced in ASALs where the economy and rural livelihoods are highly dependent on climate-sensitive activities, such as pastoralism and rainfed cultivation.
Increased temperatures, rainfall variability and strong winds associated with tropical cyclones have combined to create favorable conditions for the breeding of insects and pests. For instance, in early 2020 some parts of Kenya and neighboring East African Countries faced massive swarms of locusts. [4] Even if directly attributing specific infestations to climate change is difficult, climate change is known to be capable of changing the feeding and outbreak dynamics of some insect species.
Recent weather patterns in Kenya have deviated from the norm, with unusually severe rains from March to May this year, influenced by the El Niño phenomenon. This highlights the increased variability and severity of weather events. [18]
Currently, the annual rise of sea level is approximately 3mm every year. Regional variations exist due to natural variability in regional winds and ocean currents, which can take place over periods of days to months or even decades.
Global coastal areas face challenges as a result of anthropogenic sea-level rise. Rising mean sea levels (MSL) and storm surges combine to exacerbate extreme sea levels (ESL). Increasing ESL is a significant challenge for nearly 2.6 billion people in the Indian Ocean region to adapt to climate change. [19] Around 17% – 4,600 hectares (11,000 acres) – of Mombasa would be threatened by a sea level rise of 30 centimetres (12 in). [15]
Rising sea levels will likely lead to destruction of infrastructure including ship docking ports and industries located within the coast region if no adaptation strategies are implemented. it can also lead to even increased acute water supply and salinization problems, as freshwater aquifers are contaminated.
The replenishment of groundwater reservoirs, a major source of drinking water in Africa, is being threatened by a reduction in precipitation. [20] Rainfall levels between March and May/June decreased in eastern Africa from at least the 1980s onwards, and monsoon rain decreased between 1948 and 2009 in the Horn of Africa. [21] The annual flow of water from rivers passing through East Africa, such as the Nile, will decrease as a result of climate change. Increasing drought and desertification is expected to cause an increased scarcity of freshwater. [22] [23] While international standards suggest that 1,000 m3 of water should be available per person, only 586 m3 was available in 2010, and this may fall to 293 m3 by 2050. The shrinking of Mount Kenya's glaciers has exacerbated water shortages. Rivers that once flowed year round due to glacial run-off now flow seasonally, aggravating conflicts over water resources. [15]
Climate change may significantly disrupt the ecosystem services involved in agriculture, such as by affecting species distribution, inter-species relationships, and altering the effectiveness of management regimes. [24] Such services are also needed by the $2.5 billion tourism sector. [15] : 3 Kenya's wildlife species are expected to be affected in a variety of ways as the climate changes, with changes in temperature and rainfall affecting seasonal events and species ranges. [25]
Forest cover 7.4 percent of Kenya's land, and provide services including improving water quality, preventing erosion, and absorbing greenhouse gases, in addition to being habitats for other wildlife. According to the UN Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO), forest cover in Kenya declined sharply from 12% in 1990 to 6% in 2010, before recovering slightly to 9% by 2022, as reported by the Kenya Forest Service. [26]
Historically, from 1990 to 2015, the forest cover decreased by 25% (824,115 hectares), averaging a loss of 33,000 hectares per year. [27] More recently, this rate has decreased to about 5,000 hectares lost annually. [28]
This reduces both the ecosystem services the forests provide, including by diminishing wood yield and quality, and the biodiversity they support. Climate change may impede the recovery of these forests. It adversely affects forest regenerative capacity, limiting tree growth and survival, as well as increasing pest and pathogen range. There is also an increased risk and severity of forest fires as temperatures increase and droughts increase in length. [29] : 16 Other affected habitats are coral reefs and mangroves, whose ecosystem services include protection from storm surges, providing opportunities for eco-tourism, and sustaining fisheries. Both are directly affected by increasing temperatures and rising sea levels. [15] : 3
The two most important sectors within the Kenyan economy [2] are agriculture and tourism, which [1] are both highly vulnerable to effects of climate change. [15] A drought lasting from 2008 to 2011 caused an estimated $12.1 billion in damage. [30] Food insecurity caused be droughts from 2014 to 2022 affected approximately 3.4 million people while in 2018, about 500,000 people lost access to water. [31]
With a population of 48.5 million people, [32] Kenya is the largest economy in East and Central Africa, and serves as a diplomatic, communications, financial and trade hub within the region. [33] [34] Economic damage caused by climate variability and extreme weather may equate to 2.6% of GDP by 2030. [15]
Agriculture remains an important component of Kenyan households' economic and social well-being. [35] Climate change is already affecting the country's agricultural sector, [36] [37] which is responsible for over 33 percent of Kenya's GDP and is the primary source of sustenance for 60% of the population. [15] Three quarters of Kenya's farming produce comes from small scale farmers. [38] In some areas of Kenya temperatures can exceed 35 °C (95 °F), at which the heat is damaging to maize, a staple crop in Kenya. [15]
Kenya is one of the world's largest producers of tea, with the tea sector accounting for about a quarter of total export earnings and 4% of GDP. [39] The industry provides rural jobs that are key to the reduction of rural–urban migration, but areas currently used to cultivate tea are expected to experience increased climate driven stresses. [24]
High temperatures are also expected to increase pest and disease loads in domesticated animals, especially in arid and semi-arid (ASALs) regions. [15] Livestock trends in ASALs between 1977 and 2016 show cattle declined by 26.5%, while sheep and goats increase by 76% and camels by 13.3%. Climate change could result in the loss of 52% of the ASAL cattle population (or 1.7 million cattle) at a cost of US$340–680 million to the economy. [17]
A number of startups, non profits and companies are working to address climate change–related issues. [40]
Kenya's manufacturing sector, which produces good for both domestic use and exports, is one of the largest in Sub-Saharan Africa. Accounting for almost 10% of GDP in 2010, and employing 13% of formal sector labor in 2012, [41] its output was valued at over KES1 trillion in 2014. [42] Consuming around 60% of electricity generated in the country, manufacturing produces about 10% of Kenya's greenhouse gas emissions. [41]
Kenya's National Climate Change Action Plan [43] (NCCAP) identifies some impacts of climate change on the manufacturing sector: [41]
Different effects caused or exacerbated by climate change, such as heat, drought, and floods, negatively affect human health. [29] : 12 The risk of vector and water borne diseases will rise. [44] : 1 83 million people are expected to be at risk of malaria alone by 2070, [44] : 3 a disease which is already responsible for 5% of deaths in children under the age of five and causes large expense. [15] : 4 Dengue fever is similarly expected to increase by 2070. [44] : 3
Among people aged 65 and over, heat stress-related mortality is expected to increase from 2 deaths per 100,000 per year in 1990 to 45 per 100,000 by 2080. [15] : 4 [44] : 4 Under a low-emissions scenario, this may be limited to just 7 deaths per 100,000 in 2080. Under a high emission scenario, climate change is expected to exacerbate diarrhea deaths, causing around 9% of such deaths for children under 15 by 2030, and 13% of such deaths by 2050. Malnutrition may rise by up to 20% by 2050. In 2009, it was recorded in Kenya that the prevalence of stunting in children, underweight children and wasting in children under age 5 was 35.2%, 16.4% and 7.0%, respectively. [44] : 4
The National Environmental Management Authority in the Ministry of Environment and Mineral Resources (MEMR), the National Climate Change Activities Coordinating Committee, and the Kenya Meteorological Department in the Ministry of Transport are the major components of the government's institutional framework tasked with the day to day building of climate resilience. [45]
In 2010 the Kenyan government published the National Climate Change Response Strategy. [46] The Climate Change Act 2016 establishes a National Climate Change Council, which is chaired by Kenya's president, [15] : 4 with the authority to oversee "the development, management, implementation and regulation of mechanisms to enhance climate change resilience and low carbon development for the sustainable development of Kenya", by the National and County Governments, the private sector, civil society, and others. [47]
The National Adaptation Plan (NAP) was implemented in 2015 to improve climate resilience. [48] [49] The NAP contains the Adaptation Technical Analysis Report (ATAR), which examines sectoral economic vulnerabilities, identifies adaptation needs, and suggests potential adaptation actions in different counties. [48] The NAP supports the development of local County Integrated Development Plans (CIPDs), which includes the establishment of County Climate Change Funds (CCCFs). [49]
The current National Climate Change Action Plan (NCCAP 2018–2022) follows the National Climate Change Action Plan 2013–2017. The plan focuses on adaptation and mitigation measures the country can take, with the aim of "low carbon climate resilient development". [50] The National Environment Management Authority serves as the country's accredited body to international climate financing organizations such as The Adaptation Fund and the Green Climate Fund. [15]
In 2022 President Ruto said: "Wind turbines and solar panels are quick to construct and can generate and deliver power far more quickly and easily than a new oil rig, and with much less harm to our fragile climate." [51]
In urban areas, increasing population and informal settlement size is exposing more people to heat, flooding, and water scarcity. The consequences of climate change have impacted marginalized communities, women and the youth. [3]
The Arid and Semi Arid areas host 38% of the population, and produce 12% of GDP. [52] [29] Poverty rates in northern ASALs remains above 80%, despite overall decreasing national poverty rates. [15]
The Geography of Kenya is diverse, varying amongst its 47 counties. Kenya has a coastline on the Indian Ocean, which contains swamps of East African mangroves. Inland are broad plains and numerous hills. Kenya borders South Sudan to the northwest, Uganda to the west, Somalia to the east, Tanzania to the south, and Ethiopia to the north. Kenya currently faces border disputes with South Sudan over the Ilemi Triangle and with Somalia over Jubbaland where, if the Somalian Government gives it up, it could be a new part of Kenya, which would bring the total land area of Kenya to approximately 692,939 km2.
Environmental issues in Kenya include deforestation, soil erosion, desertification, water shortage and degraded water quality, flooding, poaching, and domestic and industrial pollution.
Climate change has been a critical issue in Australia since the beginning of the 21st century. Australia is becoming hotter and more prone to extreme heat, bushfires, droughts, floods, and longer fire seasons because of climate change. Climate issues include wildfires, heatwaves, cyclones, rising sea levels, and erosion.
Climate change in Africa is an increasingly serious threat as Africa is among the most vulnerable continents to the effects of climate change. Some sources even classify Africa as "the most vulnerable continent on Earth". Climate change and climate variability will likely reduce agricultural production, food security and water security. As a result, there will be negative consequences on people's lives and sustainable development in Africa.
Climate change in Pakistan is a major issue for the country. Pakistan is highly vulnerable to climate change. As with the changing climate in South Asia as a whole, the climate of Pakistan has changed over the past several decades, with significant impacts on the environment and people. In addition to increased heat, drought and extreme weather in parts of the country, the melting of glaciers in the Himalayas has impacted some of the important rivers of Pakistan. Between 1999 and 2018, Pakistan ranked 5th in the countries affected by extreme weather caused by climate change. Pakistan is prone to a range of natural disasters, including cyclones, floods, drought, intense rainfall, and earthquakes. According to scientific research, climate change played a substantial role in the devastating floods of 2022, which had a direct impact on over 30 million people in Pakistan, resulting in the loss of lives, damage to public infrastructure, and displacement from homes. Climate change poses a significant menace to Pakistan's economy and security.
There are numerous effects of climate change on agriculture, many of which are making it harder for agricultural activities to provide global food security. Rising temperatures and changing weather patterns often result in lower crop yields due to water scarcity caused by drought, heat waves and flooding. These effects of climate change can also increase the risk of several regions suffering simultaneous crop failures. Currently this risk is regarded as rare but if these simultaneous crop failures did happen they would have significant consequences for the global food supply. Many pests and plant diseases are also expected to either become more prevalent or to spread to new regions. The world's livestock are also expected to be affected by many of the same issues, from greater heat stress to animal feed shortfalls and the spread of parasites and vector-borne diseases.
Climate change is having a considerable impact in Malaysia. Increasing temperatures are likely to greatly increase the number of heatwaves occurring annually. Variations in precipitation may increase the frequency of droughts and floods in various local areas. Sea level rise may inundate some coastal areas. These impacts are expected to have numerous environmental and socioeconomic effects, exacerbating existing environmental issues and reinforcing inequality.
Climate change in Ghana is impacting the people in Ghana in several ways as the country sits at the intersection of three hydro-climatic zones. Changes in rainfall, weather conditions and sea-level rise will affect the salinity of coastal waters. This is expected to negatively affect both farming and fisheries.
Climate change in Somalia refers to changes in the climate in Somalia and the subsequent response, adaption and mitigation strategies of the country. Somalia is the second most climate-vulnerable country in the world. The country has seen an increase in severe climatic events since 1990, with three major droughts since 2010, recurring flooding and more regular locust swarms that destroy crops. By 2080, it’s expected temperatures will rise by 3.4 degrees Celsius, with an additional 152 very hot days per year.
Climate change in Senegal will have wide reaching impacts on many aspects of life in Senegal. Climate change will cause an increase in average temperatures over west Africa by between 1.5 and 4 °C by mid-century, relative to 1986–2005. Projections of rainfall indicate an overall decrease in rainfall and an increase in intense mega-storm events over the Sahel. The sea level is expected to rise faster in West Africa than the global average. Although Senegal is currently not a major contributor to global greenhouse gas emissions, it is one of the countries most vulnerable to climate change.
Climate change is expected to significantly impact Morocco on multiple dimensions, similar to other countries in the Middle East and North Africa region. As a coastal country with hot and arid climates, environmental impacts from climate change are likely to be wide and varied. Analysis of these environmental changes on the economy of Morocco are expected to create challenges at all levels of the economy. The main effects will be felt in the agricultural systems and fisheries which employ half of the population, and account for 14% of GDP. In addition, because 60% of the population and most of the industrial activity are on the coast, sea level rise is a major threat to key economic forces. Morocco’s average temperatures have increased by 0.2 °C per decade since the 1960s. Morocco is particularly susceptible to heat waves, droughts and floods.
Iran is among the most vulnerable countries to climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Iran contributes to about 1.8% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG), and is ranked 8th in greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) world wide and is ranked first in the MENA region due to its reliance on oil and natural gas. Climate change has led to reduced precipitation as well as increased temperatures, with Iran holding the hottest temperature recorded in Asia.
Climate change in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) refers to changes in the climate of the MENA region and the subsequent response, adaption and mitigation strategies of countries in the region. In 2018, the MENA region emitted 3.2 billion tonnes of carbon dioxide and produced 8.7% of global greenhouse gas emissions (GHG) despite making up only 6% of the global population. These emissions are mostly from the energy sector, an integral component of many Middle Eastern and North African economies due to the extensive oil and natural gas reserves that are found within the region. The region of Middle East is one of the most vulnerable to climate change. The impacts include increase in drought conditions, aridity, heatwaves and sea level rise.
Between 2008 and early 2010, Kenya, one of the countries of Eastern Africa, was affected by a severe drought, which put ten million people at risk of hunger and caused a large number of deaths to livestock in Kenyan Arid and Semi-Arid Lands (ASALs), constituting around 88% of the country.
Climate change in Nigeria is evident from temperature increase, rainfall variability. It is also reflected in drought, desertification, rising sea levels, erosion, floods, thunderstorms, bush fires, landslides, land degradation, more frequent, extreme weather conditions and loss of biodiversity. All of which continues to negatively affect human and animal life and also the ecosystems in Nigeria. Although, depending on the location, regions experience climate change with significant higher temperatures during the dry seasons while rainfalls during rainy seasons help keep the temperature at milder levels. The effects of climate change prompted the World Meteorological Organization, in its 40th Executive Council 1988, to establish a new international scientific assessment panel to be called the International Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The 2007 IPCC's fourth and final Assessment Report (AR4) revealed that there is a considerable threat of climate change that requires urgent global attention. The report further attributed the present global warming to largely anthropogenic practices. The Earth is almost at a point of no return as it faces environmental threats which include atmospheric and marine pollution, global warming, ozone depletion, the dangers of pollution by nuclear and other hazardous substances, and the extinction of various wildlife species.
The effects of climate change in Uganda are increasingly severe, affecting the lives of the country's citizens and its environment. It has led to extreme weather events such as unpredictable, prolonged drought and rainfall. Uganda's climate is mostly tropical with regular rainfall and sunshine patterns. Due to climate change the seasons have changed, with the rainy season becoming more variable in length and droughts more ubiquitous, especially in eastern and northeastern Uganda. Climate trends have the potential to affect development of Uganda, due to the vulnerability of Uganda's diverse environment.
Climate change in Botswana refers to changes in the climate in Botswana and the subsequent response, adaptation and mitigation strategies of the country. It is expected to lead to increased intensity of droughts and increased frequencies this is due to shorter rainy seasons and fewer rainy days. Due to fluctuation on climate and weather the country may sometimes experience heavy destructive rains.
Lesotho is a country in southern Africa that is already experiencing the negative effects of climate change, including increased frequency of extreme weather, such as droughts, increased rates of soil erosion and desertification, and reduced soil fertility. Lesotho is a landlocked country that is particularly vulnerable to the negative impacts of climate variability and changes in water and food security, as well as adverse conditions to health, human settlements, and the energy sector.
Malawi is a land-locked country in southeastern Africa situated along the southernmost arm of the East African Rift-Valley System between latitudes 9°22’ and 17°03’ south of the equator, and longitudes 33°40’ and 35°55’ east of the Greenwich meridian. It shares borders with Tanzania in the north and northeast, Mozambique in the southwest, south, and east, and Zambia in the west. Malawi is highly vulnerable to the effects of climate change as the vast majority of Malawians rely on small-scale, rain-fed agriculture, making them highly dependent on weather patterns. Climate change increasingly exacerbates droughts, flooding, and inconsistent rainfall—contributing to food insecurity and threatening to derail progress toward Malawi’s goal of self-reliance.
Eritrea, a small coastal nation situated along the Red Sea in the Horn of Africa, is one of the most vulnerable countries of the world to the adverse effects of climate change and increased climate variability has already been evidenced in the country.