2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky

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2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky
Flag of Kentucky.svg
  2004 November 2, 2010 2016  
  Rand Paul official portrait with flag edit.jpg JackConway (cropped).jpg
Nominee Rand Paul Jack Conway
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote755,706600,052
Percentage55.73%44.25%

2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky results map by county.svg
County results
Paul:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Conway:     50–60%     60–70%
Tie:     50%

U.S. senator before election

Jim Bunning
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Rand Paul
Republican

The 2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky took place on November 2, 2010, alongside other elections to the United States Senate in other states as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Primaries for each respective party were held on May 18, 2010. [1] Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning decided to retire instead of seeking a third term. Republican nominee Rand Paul, an ophthalmologist and son of Congressman Ron Paul, won the open seat against Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway. [2]

Contents

Background

In early 2009, incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Jim Bunning, who won reelection by a surprisingly narrow margin in 2004, said he would need to raise $10 million for his re-election campaign. [3] However, NRSC chairman John Cornyn pressured Bunning to retire due to concerns that he could lose a reelection bid. [4] In July 2009, Bunning announced he would not run for re-election. [5]

In February 2009, Senator Bunning stated that another justice could soon be appointed to the United States Supreme Court because Associate Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg, who had been diagnosed with pancreatic cancer, would be dead within nine months, [6] creating a significant amount of controversy, which resulted in an apology from Bunning. [7] Ginsburg would not die until 2020—outliving Bunning, who would die in 2017.

In late May 2009, Bunning called fellow Kentucky Senator and Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell a "control freak" and suggested that he did not need McConnell's endorsement. [8] He also challenged Lexington Herald-Leader editor John Stamper to an arm wrestling match after Stamper questioned whether Bunning was "fit to serve." [8]

Additionally, Bunning created further controversy in February 2010 when he objected to a proposal of unanimous consent for an extension of unemployment insurance, COBRA, and other federal programs, citing that this extension was not pay-as-you-go. He proposed an amendment which sought to find the funds to pay for the bill from the Stimulus Bill of 2009, and declared that he supported the unemployed, but that a bill such as this only added to the growing deficit and that it should be paid for immediately. [9] Senator Bob Corker joined Bunning, while other senators worked to cease his objections. When Senator Jeff Merkley urged him to drop his objections to vote on a 30-day extension of benefits, Bunning responded "tough shit." [10] [11] Bunning finally agreed to end his objection to the bill in exchange for a vote on his amendment to pay for the package. It failed 53–43 on a procedural vote. [12] The extension of unemployment benefits then passed by a vote of 78–19. [13]

Republican primary

Candidates

Campaign

On August 20, 2009, a grassroots-planned moneybomb raised $433,509 for Rand Paul's campaign in a 24-hour period. [14] According to Paul, [15] this set a new record in Kentucky's political fundraising history (for a 24-hour period). Republican Liberty Caucus endorsed Paul in November 2009. [16] On December 22, 2009, Rand Paul picked up the endorsement of Concerned Women for America. [17] Paul embraced the Tea Party movement, and promoted "small government principles" one day after he officially entered the race for Kentucky's open seat. [18] Paul ran a strong anti-Washington message. One commercial tied Grayson as part of the problem, noting that Grayson raised money with AIG executives in Washington. In another advertisement, Paul had also attacked Grayson as a career politician and a liar. [19]

Grayson created a new website that attacked Paul for his "strange ideas," such as his opposition of the PATRIOT Act, and what Grayson alleged to be his support of closing down Guantanamo Bay and saying that Iran was not a threat. He also attacked Paul for being a Duke University fan.[ citation needed ] He sent out another TV ad and web video that stirred controversy by making the case that Paul believes that foreign policy decisions made prior to September 11, 2001, are partially to blame for the attacks. [20] Paul immediately responded by launching a statewide television ad in which he expresses his "outrage at terrorists who killed 3,000 innocents" before accusing Grayson of a "lie" and a "shameful" tactic. [21] Grayson accused the Fox News Channel of favoring Paul over him. [22]

On May 18, 2010, Paul won the Republican nomination. [2] After conceding the election to Paul, Grayson said, "It's time to put all differences aside, unite behind Dr. Paul, he needs our help and I for one stand ready to serve". [23]

Endorsements

List of individuals and organizations endorsing Rand Paul
List of individuals and organizations endorsing Trey Grayson
  • U.S. Senate Republican Minority Leader Mitch McConnell of Kentucky [46]
  • Former Vice President Dick Cheney [47]
  • Former U.S. Senator Rick Santorum of Pennsylvania [47]
  • Former Congressman Ron Lewis of Kentucky [47]
  • Former New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani [48]
  • Congressman Hal Rogers of Kentucky [47]
  • State Senator Julie Denton [47]
  • State Senator Tom Jensen [47]
  • State Senator Vernie McGaha [47]
  • State Senator John Schickel [47]
  • State Senator Brandon Smith [47]
  • State Senator Elizabeth Tori [47]
  • State Senator Jack Westwood [47]
  • State Senator Ken Winters [47]
  • State Representative Scott Brinkman [47]
  • State Representative John "Bam" Carney [47]
  • State Representative Tim Couch [47]
  • State Representative Ronald Crimm [47]
  • State Representative Bob Deweese [47]
  • State Representative Myron Dossett [47]
  • State Representative Bill Farmer [47]
  • State Representative Mike Harmon [47]
  • State Representative Brent Housman [47]
  • State Representative Adam Koenig [47]
  • State Representative Brad Montell [47]
  • State Representative Tim Moore [47]
  • State Representative David Osborne [47]
  • State Representative Marie Rader [47]
  • State Representative Steven Rudy [47]
  • State Representative Sal Santoro [47]
  • State Representative Alecia Webb-Edgington [47]
  • State Representative Addia Wuchner [47]
  • State Representative Jill York [47]
  • Kentucky Right to Life [47]
  • The Kentucky Enquirer [49]

Polling

List of Republican primary polling numbers
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Trey
Grayson
Rand
Paul
OtherUndecided
Survey USA (report)August 15–17, 2009516± 4.4%37%26%13%17%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)August 31 – September 2, 2009600± 4.0%40%25%18%17%
Survey USA (report)October 30 – November 2, 2009448± 4.7%32%35% 10%18%
Public Policy Polling (report [ dead link ])December 18–21, 2009478± 4.5%25%44% 32%
Magellan Strategies (report [ dead link ])February 18, 2010560± 4.1%23%44%33%
Survey USA (report)March 1–3, 2010454± 4.7%27%42% 11%19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)March 15–17, 2010600± 5.0%28%40% 14%18%
Survey USA (report)April 9–11, 2010446± 4.7%30%45%5%19%
Public Policy Polling (report)May 1–2, 2010363± 5.1%28%46%4%21%
Research 2000 (report Archived 2010-05-08 at the Wayback Machine )May 2–4, 2010500± 4.5%32%44%7%17%
Magellan Strategies (report) (archive)May 4, 2010611± 3.9%28%43%8%21%
Survey USA (report (registration required))May 9–11, 2010440± 4.8%33%49%7%11%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)May 10–12, 2010600± 4.0%35%45%7%13%
Public Policy Polling (report)May 15–16, 20101,065± 3.0%34%52%7%7%
Magellan Strategies (report) (archive)May 16, 2010809± 3.4%30%55%8%7%

Results

Counties carried by Paul are in Yellow; counties carried by Grayson are in green. 2010KentuckyRepSenatePrimary.jpg
Counties carried by Paul are in Yellow; counties carried by Grayson are in green.
Republican primary results [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rand Paul 206,986 58.8%
Republican Trey Grayson124,86435.4%
Republican Bill Johnson*7,8612.2%
Republican John Stephenson6,8852.0%
Republican Gurley L. Martin2,8500.8%
Republican Jon J. Scribner2,8290.8%
Total votes352,275 100.0%

*Though Bill Johnson dropped out of the race prior to the primary, he still appeared on the ballot.

Democratic primary

Candidates

Campaign

Mongiardo announced that he had received the endorsement of Governor Steve Beshear [54] and raised $420,000. [55]

Due to Conway's large margin of victory in his statewide campaign for attorney general, his fundraising ability, and the age difference between Conway and Bunning, Conway was described as a viable candidate. [56]

Both candidates were against the Senate version of the Affordable Care Act. When Mongiardo said that "it was time to start over," he was criticized by Conway and labeled "Dr. No." [57] Both candidates supported the final version. [58] [59] Attorney General Conway refused to join a lawsuit claiming that health care reform is unconstitutional. [60]

On May 18, 2010, Conway won the Democratic nomination. [61]

Endorsements

List of individuals and organizations endorsing Jack Conway
List of individuals and organizations endorsing Daniel Mongiardo

Polling

List of Democratic primary polling numbers
Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Jack
Conway
Daniel
Mongiardo
OtherUndecided
Garin-Hart-Yang (report [ dead link ])May 12–13, 2009336± 5.3%28%43%29%
Survey USA (report)August 15–17, 2009647± 3.9%31%39%9%14%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)August 31 – September 2, 2009600± 4.0%30%37%15%18%
Survey USA (report)October 30 – November 2, 2009602± 4.1%28%39%10%16%
Public Policy Polling (report [ dead link ])December 22, 2009557± 4.2%37%33%30%
Survey USA (report)March 1–3, 2010590± 4.1%27%45%9%19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)March 15–17, 2010600± 5.0%31%47% 8%14%
Survey USA (report)April 9–11, 2010659± 4.7%32%35%11%21%
Public Policy Polling (report)May 1–2, 2010459± 4.6%27%36%10%27%
Research 2000 (report Archived 2010-05-08 at the Wayback Machine )May 2–4, 2010500± 4.5%32%39%12%17%
Survey USA (report (registration required))May 9–11, 2010662± 3.9%37%38%13%12%
Research 2000 (report)May 10–12, 2010600± 4.0%36%39%10%15%

Results

The county carried by James Buckmaster is in gray. The county carried by Darlene Price is in brown. The counties carried by Dan Mongiardo are in blue. The counties carried by Jack Conway are in yellow. 2010KyDemSenatePrimary.jpg
The county carried by James Buckmaster is in gray. The county carried by Darlene Price is in brown. The counties carried by Dan Mongiardo are in blue. The counties carried by Jack Conway are in yellow.

The primary race was extremely close with Conway narrowly prevailing by just over 4,000 votes. The race remained in doubt for much of the night. Finally with 99% of the vote counted the Associated Press declared Conway the winner. Mongiardo called Conway to concede at 10:08 P.M. EST. Mongiardo congratulated Conway and pledged him his full support for the general election. In terms of the breakdown of the results, Conway ran up margins in Jefferson County home of Louisville, and Fayette County home of Lexington. In terms of more rural counties Mongiardo and Conway split the vote. Conway performed well in central Kentucky, while Mongiardo performed well in coal country in east Kentucky and farm country in western Kentucky. In the end Conway's performance in the states most populated county, Jefferson County proved to be just enough to carry him to victory. The primary race was also notable because both Conway and Mongiardo received more votes than Republican Rand Paul.[ citation needed ]

Democratic primary results [50]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Jack Conway 229,433 44.0%
Democratic Daniel Mongiardo225,26043.2%
Democratic Darlene Fitzgerald Price28,5315.5%
Democratic James Buckmaster20,5613.9%
Democratic Maurice Sweeney17,8743.4%
Total votes521,659 100.0%

General election

Candidates

Kentucky's ballot access requirements allow Republicans and Democrats to run for office with two signatures, but require minor parties and independents to collect at least 5,000 signatures. [68] The filing deadline for minor party and independent candidates was on August 10, and no candidate filed. [68]

Some speculate that the reason why no minor party or independent candidate filed is because Paul's candidacy helped discourage it. The Libertarian Party of Kentucky held its nominating convention for 2010 elections and failed to nominate a candidate for the U.S. Senate, as no one stepped forward to seek nomination to that office. Despite comments from some observers that Paul espouses libertarian beliefs, the Kentucky Libertarian Party issued an official press release stating "Rand Paul is not a libertarian" and detailing the differences between Paul's beliefs and libertarian principles. [69] Similarly, the Constitution Party of Kentucky avoided the Senate race ostensibly because of Rand Paul's presence in that race and perhaps because of his more minarchist stance than Trey Grayson, especially if the latter had been the nominee.

Billy Ray Wilson, an independent of London, filed as a write-in candidate. [70] [71] [72]

Campaign

Conway began the race trailing Paul, but as he attacked his opponent's positions on social-welfare and criminal-justice policies, the polls began to tighten. Conway agreed to run an advertisement that linked Paul's policy stances to a college prank in which Paul reportedly demanded that a female classmate worship a bong named "Aqua Buddha." Independent political analysts in Kentucky quickly warned that Conway would regret his decision. The ad's focus on religion led critics, including not just Republicans but also some liberals such as Hardball's Chris Matthews, to charge that Conway was improperly questioning Paul's faith, to which Conway countered that the ad was intended to question Paul's "judgment." Nonetheless, Conway swiftly dropped again in the polls, a decline from which he never recovered. Conway ceased his defense of the commercial after the election, admitting that running it had been a mistake; he claimed that he had done so only reluctantly at the urging of national advisers despite finding it "harsh as mule's breath." [73]

Conway saw one last opportunity before his final debate with Paul. One of Rand Paul's supporters stomped on a MoveOn activist after she approached Paul's vehicle, and a video of the event was later used in a Conway TV commercial. [74] [75] Paul and Conway condemned the attack and the supporter was banned from campaign events. [74] [76]

The campaign attracted $8.5 million in contributions from outside groups, of which $6 million was spent to help Rand Paul and $2.5 million to help Conway. This money influx was in addition to the money spent by the candidates themselves: $6 million by Paul and $4.7 million by Conway. [77] [78]

Paul was endorsed by The Kentucky Enquirer , [79] The Richmond Register , [80] and the Bowling Green Daily News ; [81] as well as by the National Federation of Independent Business, [82] Council for Citizens Against Government Waste, [83] National Right to Life, [84] US Chamber of Commerce, [85] National Vietnam and Gulf War Veterans Coalition, [86] Mike Huckabee, [87] and Tony Perkins/FRC Action PAC. [88] [89]

Conway was endorsed by the Courier-Journal [90] and the Lexington Herald Leader . [91]

Debates

Rand Paul and Jack Conway debate, October 2010 Jack Conway & Rand Paul (5074576800).jpg
Rand Paul and Jack Conway debate, October 2010

There were 5 televised debates between the two candidates. The first debate on October 3, 2010, which was moderated by Chris Wallace, seemed to focus on President Obama's decisions during his 2 years as president. Paul stated, "I think his agenda is wrong for America. I will stand up against President Obama's agenda." Conway responded, "I am a proud Democrat. I'm certainly not going to be on the left of Barack Obama." At the time of the debate, the election's polls indicated the race was a dead heat. [92]

2010 United States Senate election in Kentucky
No.DateHostModeratorLinkParticipants
 P Participant   A Absent   N Non-invitee   I Invitee   W Withdrawn
Rand Paul Jack Conway
1May 18, 2010 ???? ???? C-SPAN PP
2October 11, 2010 ???? ???? C-SPAN PP
3October 17, 2010 ???? ???? C-SPAN PP
4October 25, 2010 ???? ???? C-SPAN PP

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
Cook Political Report [93] Lean RNovember 1, 2010
Rothenberg [94] Lean ROctober 29, 2010
RealClearPolitics [95] Lean ROctober 19, 2010
Sabato's Crystal Ball [96] Lean ROctober 14, 2010
CQ Politics [97] Lean ROctober 20, 2010
Rasmussen Reports [98] Safe ROctober 29, 2010
The New York Times [99] Lean ROctober 20, 2010

Fundraising

Candidate (party)ReceiptsDisbursementsCash on handDebt
Rand Paul (R)$6,727,033$6,068,547$658,484$0
Jack Conway (D)$5,027,318$4,370,349$684,177$460,794
Source: Federal Election Commission [100]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin
of error
Rand
Paul (R)
Jack
Conway (D)
OtherUndecided
SurveyUSA (report)August 15–17, 20091,944± 2.3%38%43%19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)August 31 – September 2, 2009600± 4.0%37%41%22%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 30, 2009500± 4.5%38%42%4%15%
SurveyUSA (report)October 30 – November 2, 20091,770± 2.4%39%44%17%
Public Policy Polling (report [ dead link ])December 18–21, 20091,199± 2.8%42%36%22%
Rasmussen Reports (report)January 6, 2010500± 4.5%46%38%4%12%
Rasmussen Reports (report)February 2, 2010500± 4.5%47%39%3%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 2, 2010500± 4.5%49%34%4%13%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)March 15–17, 2010600± 5.0%45% 39%16%
Rasmussen Reports (report)March 31, 2010500± 4.5%50% 36%3%11%
Rasmussen Reports (report)April 28, 2010500± 4.5%47% 38%4%10%
Public Policy Polling (report)May 1–2, 2010946± 3.2%41% 40%19%
Research 2000 (report) (archive)May 10–12, 2010600± 4.0%42%39%19%
Rasmussen Reports (report [ dead link ])May 19, 2010500± 4.5%59% 34%4%3%
Research 2000 (report)May 24–26, 2010600± 4.0%44% 41%9%
SurveyUSA (report)May 25–27, 2010569± 4.2%51% 45%4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)June 1, 2010500± 4.5%49% 41%4%6%
Rasmussen Reports (report)June 28, 2010500± 4.5%49% 42%3%6%
Public Policy Polling (report)June 28–30, 2010625± 3.9%43% 43%14%
Rasmussen Reports (report)July 20, 2010750± 4.0%49% 41%4%6%
SurveyUSA (report)July 27–29, 2010568± 4.2%51% 43%5%
Reuters/Ipsos (report)August 13–15, 2010435± 4.7%45% 40%15%
Rasmussen Reports (report)August 17, 2010500± 4.5%49% 40%4%7%
SurveyUSA (report)August 30 – September 1, 2010561± 4.2%55% 40%5%
Opinion Research (report)September 2–7, 2010869± 3.5%46%46%5%4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 7, 2010500± 4.5%54%39%2%4%
Public Policy Polling (report)September 11–12, 2010959± 3.2%49%42%9%
SurveyUSA (report)September 21–23, 2010611± 4.0%49%47%4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)September 29, 2010500± 4.0%49%38%5%8%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 18, 2010500± 4.5%47%42%4%7%
Mason-Dixon (report)October 18–19, 2010625± 4.0%48%43%9%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 23, 20101,000± 3.0%50%43%2%5%
Public Policy Polling (report)October 21–24, 2010900± 3.3%53%40%7%
Opinion Research (report)October 20–26, 2010785± 3.5%50%43%
SurveyUSA (report)October 24–27, 2010900± 4.0%52%43%4%
Rasmussen Reports (report)October 27, 2010750± 4.0%53%41%2%4%
Public Policy Polling (report)October 28–30, 20101,021± 3.1%55%40%5%

Results

United States Senate election in Kentucky, 2010 [101]
PartyCandidateVotes%±%
Republican Rand Paul 755,706 55.73% +5.07%
Democratic Jack Conway 600,05244.25%-5.09%
Independent Billy Ray Wilson (write-in)3380.02%N/A
Total votes1,356,096 100.0%
Republican hold

Counties that flipped from Democratic to Republican

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References

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  2. 1 2 Brammer, Jack (May 18, 2010). "Paul wins Kentucky GOP Senate nomination, to face Conway". McClatchy Newspapers. Archived from the original on May 22, 2010. Retrieved May 20, 2010.
  3. "U.S. Senator Jim Bunning to run in 2010, needs $10 million" Archived 2012-07-22 at the Wayback Machine , Fox/WDRB. Retrieved February 24, 2009.
  4. Kraushaar, Josh; Raju, Manu (January 22, 2009). "GOP pressures Bunning to quit". The Politico. Retrieved February 5, 2009.
  5. (registration required)[ dead link ]
  6. Baram, Marcus (February 22, 2009). "GOP Senator Jim Bunning: Justice Ginsburg Will Be Dead In Nine Months". Huffington Post.
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Further reading

Voss, D. Stephen & Gross, Donald (2011). "Chapter 8: Poster Child for the Tea Party: Rand Paul of Kentucky". In Miller, William J. & Walling, Jeremy D. (eds.). Tea Party Effects on 2010 Senate Elections. Lexington Books. pp. 141–172. ISBN   978-0739167014.

Debates
Official campaign websites (Archived)