2014 Nigeria GDP rebasing

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In April 2014, the National Bureau of Statistics, Nigeria, under the government of Nigeria, announced changes to the way it calculated GDP, changing the calculation to more accurately reflect current prices and market structure, thus giving more weight to Nollywood and mobile phone services that had grown a lot recently. As a result, Nigeria's estimate of its GDP increased by 89%, moving it from Africa's second biggest economy (after South Africa) to the biggest economy. These changes were known as the 2014 Nigeria GDP rebasing or simply the rebasing. [1] :viii [2] [3] [4] [5]

The National Bureau of Statistics oversees and publishes statistics for Nigeria.

Nollywood sobriquet of Nigerian cinema

Nollywood is a sobriquet that originally referred to the Nigerian film industry. The origin of the term dates back to the early 2000s, traced to an article in The New York Times. Due to the history of evolving meanings and contexts, there is no clear or agreed-upon definition for the term, and it has been subjected to several controversies.

South Africa Republic in the southernmost part of Africa

South Africa, officially the Republic of South Africa (RSA), is the southernmost country in Africa. It is bounded to the south by 2,798 kilometres (1,739 mi) of coastline of Southern Africa stretching along the South Atlantic and Indian Oceans; to the north by the neighbouring countries of Namibia, Botswana, and Zimbabwe; and to the east and northeast by Mozambique and Eswatini (Swaziland); and it surrounds the enclaved country of Lesotho. South Africa is the largest country in Southern Africa and the 24th-largest country in the world by land area and, with over 58 million people, is also the world's 24th-most populous nation. It is the southernmost country on the mainland of the Old World or the Eastern Hemisphere. About 80 percent of South Africans are of Bantu ancestry, divided among a variety of ethnic groups speaking different African languages, nine of which have official status. The remaining population consists of Africa's largest communities of European, Asian (Indian), and multiracial (Coloured) ancestry.

Contents

Changes made

Change of base year

The base year for calculation (including information on the market structure) was updated from 1990 to 2010. [3] [2] This was a fairly huge increment in base year; for comparison, the 2010 Ghana GDP rebasing updated the base year from 1993 to 2006, [6] [7] and the 2015 India GDP rebasing updated the base year from 2004/05 to 2011/12. [8]

In November 2010, the government of Ghana made a number of changes to the way it calculated GDP, resulting in a 60% upward change in its estimate. The change led to discussion of the accuracy of GDP estimates, particularly in the context of Africa. It was also the first of many rebasings undertaken by African economies, most of which led to significant upward revisions in their estimates of GDP.

In 2015, the Central Statistics Office of the government of India made a number of changes to the way it calculated GDP, including a change in the base year relative to which calculations are done. This change was known as the 2015 India GDP rebasing or just the rebasing.

Change of data sources

GDP can be estimated through three methods: production, income, and expenditure. [9] GDP calculations in Nigeria were previously done purely through the production method. The new data included results on income and expenditure, allowing for better reconciliation of data. [3]

Effect on data series

Overall estimate of economy size increased significantly

The estimate of total GDP of Nigeria increased from 42.4 trillion naira (US$270 billion at exchange rates) to 80.2 trillion naira (US$510 billion at exchange rates), an 89% increase. [3] [2] This was similar to the result of rebasings in other African economies around that time, including Kenya, Uganda, Tanzania, and Zambia, and also matched the result of the 2010 Ghana GDP rebasing. [6] [7] It contrasted with the experience of the 2015 India GDP rebasing, where the overall estimate of the size of the economy was slightly reduced. [10] [11]

Kenya Republic in East Africa

Kenya, officially the Republic of Kenya, is a country in Africa with 47 semiautonomous counties governed by elected governors. At 580,367 square kilometres (224,081 sq mi), Kenya is the world's 48th largest country by total area. With a population of more than 47.6 million people, Kenya is the 29th most populous country. Kenya's capital and largest city is Nairobi while its oldest city and first capital is the coastal city of Mombasa. Kisumu City is the third largest city and also an inland port on Lake Victoria. Other important urban centres include Nakuru and Eldoret.

Uganda Republic in East Africa

Uganda, officially the Republic of Uganda, is a country in East-Central Africa. It is bordered to the east by Kenya, to the north by South Sudan, to the west by the Democratic Republic of the Congo, to the south-west by Rwanda, and to the south by Tanzania. The southern part of the country includes a substantial portion of Lake Victoria, shared with Kenya and Tanzania. Uganda is in the African Great Lakes region. Uganda also lies within the Nile basin, and has a varied but generally a modified equatorial climate.

Tanzania Country in Africa

Tanzania, officially the United Republic of Tanzania, is a country in East Africa within the African Great Lakes region. It borders Uganda to the north; Kenya to the northeast; Comoro Islands at the Indian Ocean to the east; Mozambique and Malawi to the south; Zambia to the southwest; and Rwanda, Burundi, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo to the west. Mount Kilimanjaro, Africa's highest mountain, is in northeastern Tanzania.

Nigeria's GDP increase far exceeded the expectations of analysts who had forecast an increase of between 40 and 60 per cent following the rebasing exercise. [2]

As a result of the size change, the stock market capitalization to GDP ratio estimate reduced from 33% to 18% (for comparison, the corresponding ratio for South Africa at the time was 270%). Nigeria's finance minister Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala believed this would be interesting to foreign investors interested in the upside potential of emerging markets. [5]

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala Nigerian economist

Ngozi Okonjo-Iweala is an economist and international development expert. She sits on the Boards of Standard Chartered Bank, Twitter, Global Alliance for Vaccines and Immunization (GAVI), and the African Risk Capacity (ARC).

Sectoral composition shifted toward services and away from oil

As a result of this change, more weight was given in the new series to services, with the role of Nollywood (the film industry) and mobile phones increasing significantly. [1] :viii [5] In particular, the telecom industry accounting for more than a quarter of the increase in the GDP estimate. [3] After telecoms, the biggest contributor to the upward shift was traders; this was achieved by increasing the sample of firms from which GDP data are calculated by a factor of about ten. [3] The fraction of the economy devoted to oil reduced by more than half to 14%. [3]

In a report for the Brookings Institution on the rebasing in Nigeria as well as similar rebasings in Kenya, Tanzania, Uganda, and Zambia, Amadou Sy noted that the rebasings highlighted the problems of relying on outdated data ad calculation methods that was prevalent prior to the rebasings, and also that the rebasings showed the importance and growth of the services sector. Sy called this a structural transformation in African economies that needed to be understood better. [4] The increase in the size of the services sector was also noticed in the 2010 Ghana GDP rebasing. [6] [7] In contrast, the 2015 India GDP rebasing saw a downward correction in the size of the services sector and a corresponding upward correction in the size of industry. [11]

See also

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References

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  3. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 "Step change. Revised figures show that Nigeria is Africa's largest economy". The Economist. April 12, 2014. Retrieved October 17, 2017.
  4. 1 2 Sy, Amadou (March 3, 2015). "Are African countries rebasing GDP in 2014 finding evidence of structural transformation?". Brookings Institution. Retrieved October 17, 2017.
  5. 1 2 3 Mezue, Bryan (April 9, 2014). "Nigeria's GDP Just Doubled on Paper: What It Means in Practice". Harvard Business Review . Retrieved November 19, 2017.
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  8. Worstall, Tim (April 18, 2015). "India's Change In GDP Calculation Method Seems Highly Sensible". Forbes. Retrieved October 15, 2017.
  9. "Three Approaches of Calculating GDP". Econtutorials. Retrieved November 19, 2017.
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  11. 1 2 David Keohane (February 3, 2015). "India: GDP growth rate up, confidence in statistics down?". Financial Times . Retrieved October 21, 2017.