2021 Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan presidential election

2021 Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan presidential election

←  2020 30 November 2021 2024  →
572 points in the 1st round (287 for a majority) 333 points in the runoff (167 for a majority)
Candidate Kenta Izumi Seiji Osaka First round points 189 (33.0%) 148 (25.9%) Runoff points 205 (61.6%) 128 (38.4%)   Candidate Junya Ogawa Chinami Nishimura First round points 133 (23.3%) 102 (17.8%)
President before election Yukio Edano Elected President Kenta Izumi

The 2021 Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan presidential election was held on 30 November 2021 following the resignation of president Yukio Edano after the party's poor performance in the 2021 general election. In a four-way race, Kenta Izumi was elected president after a runoff against Seiji Osaka. ^[1]

Background

Yukio Edano had been president of the Constitutional Democratic Party since its formation in 2017 and was re-elected in 2020 after the merger with the Democratic Party For the People which created the party's second incarnation. This merger gave the party more than 100 seats in the House of Representatives, making it the largest opposition party in the chamber since the Liberal Democratic Party returned to power in 2012. In September 2021, with an election looming, the CDP signed a common policy platform with the Japanese Communist Party, Social Democratic Party, and Reiwa Shinsengumi. ^[2] On 13 October, the same four parties agreed to an electoral alliance for the upcoming House of Representatives election which had been called by new Prime Minister Fumio Kishida. ^[3] Opinion polling and projections suggested the CDP and its allies would gain seats, ^{[4] [5]} but they ultimately went backwards, with the CDP winning only 96 seats compared to its 109 before the election. The Communist and Social Democratic parties likewise lost seats. ^[6] Yukio Edano subsequently announced his resignation as party president. ^[7]

Electoral system

Candidates were required to gather sponsorships from 20 members of the CDP Diet caucus in order to stand; a maximum of 25 sponsors could be submitted. ^[8]

The election was conducted via a points system:

• Each of the party's members of the National Diet had a vote worth two points. (280 points total)
• Registered party members (4,000 yen annual fee) or supporters (2,000 yen annual fee) could vote via mail or online. Points for this tier were awarded to candidates in proportion to votes won. (143 points total)
• Each of the party's members of local councils or prefectural assemblies could vote via mail or online. Points for this tier were awarded to candidates in proportion to votes won. (143 points total)
• Each of the party's approved candidates for future Diet elections had a vote worth one point. (6 points total)

In order to win, a candidate must secure more than 50% of points. If no candidate won more than 50%, a runoff was to be held the same day.

In the event of a runoff:

• Each of the party's members of the National Diet had a vote worth two points. (280 points total)
• Each of the party's approved candidates for future Diet elections had a vote worth one point. (6 points total)
• A representative from each of the party's prefectural branches had a vote worth one point. (47 points total)

Approximately 100,000 members and supporters were eligible to vote, as well as 1,270 local and prefecture-level officials. ^[8]

Candidates

Candidate			Offices held
		Kenta Izumi (age 47) Kyoto Prefecture	Member of the House of Representatives (2003–) Parliamentary Secretary in the Cabinet Office (2009–10)
		Seiji Osaka (age 62) Hokkaido	Member of the House of Representatives (2005–) Parliamentary Vice Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2010–11)
		Junya Ogawa (age 50) Kagawa Prefecture	Member of the House of Representatives (2005–) Parliamentary Vice Minister for Internal Affairs and Communications (2009–10)
		Chinami Nishimura (age 54) Niigata Prefecture	Member of the House of Representatives (2003–) Parliamentary Vice-Minister for Foreign Affairs (2009–10) Minister of State for Health, Labour and Welfare (2011–12)

Withdrew

• Hiroshi Ogushi, member of the House of Representatives (2005–) and former Special Advisor to the Prime Minister (2012) – (endorsed Ogawa) ^[9]
• Sumio Mabuchi, member of the House of Representatives (2003–17; 2019–) and former Minister of Land, Infrastructure, Transport and Tourism (2010–11) – (endorsed Izumi) ^{[10] [11]}

Declined

• Kōichirō Genba, member of the House of Representatives (1993–) and former Minister for Foreign Affairs (2011–12) ^[12]
• Kenji Eda, member of the House of Representatives (2002–02; 2005–) and former leader of the Japan Innovation Party (2014–15) ^[13]

Contest

There was no obvious successor after Edano's resignation and it took some time for the candidates to become clear. Initially, only Ogawa and Hiroshi Ogushi expressed clear interest in running. Other potential candidates such as Izumi and Nishimura kept their positions ambiguous until close to the date of nominations. ^{[14] [15]} On the 16th, Izumi announced his candidacy with the endorsement of his own faction. In response, Shoichi Kondo's liberal Sanctuary faction, the largest in the party, held a meeting to discuss the election. One of their own, Ogawa, already planned to run, but the faction judged him too inexperienced and instead elected to put forward Seiji Osaka as their candidate. ^{[16] [17]} Nishimura, backed Naoto Kan's faction, announced her candidacy on the afternoon of the 17th. ^[18] On the 18th, Takeshi Shina and Ichirō Ozawa's factions both decided to support Izumi. ^{[19] [16]} Ogawa, whose bid had nearly been sunk by his faction's support for Osaka, held a press conference that evening declaring he would still stand. He was able to secure enough sponsors to stand after winning endorsements from Yoshihiko Noda and fellow leadership hopeful Ogushi, who dropped out in his favour. ^{[16] [20] [21]}

With four candidates running and no clear favourite, a runoff was widely expected. ^[22] A survey conducted by the NHK up to the 26th indicated Izumi was in the lead, with support from about 40 Diet members compared to around 20 for the other three candidates. ^{[23] [24]} A Jiji Press survey reported similar figures: Izumi had around 40 Diet members in his camp, followed by Ogawa with 30, and Osaka and Nishimura in the mid-20s. Among prefectural branch leaders, fifteen supported Izumi, seven Osaka, Nishimura six, and Ogawa one. They reported that Izumi was favoured to due to his communication skills, while Osaka's backers appreciated his administrative skills. ^[25]

In the final days, speculation centered on who would advance to the runoff alongside Izumi; Ogawa was considered most likely. The Osaka and Nishimura camps approached him in order to coordinate against Izumi in the runoff. With this agreement, they estimated that Ogawa's support in a runoff at around 160 points versus 125 for Izumi. ^[20]

Timeline

• 2 November – Yukio Edano announces his resignation as party president.
• 13 November – Party officials announce the election will be held on 30 November 2021.
• 17 November – Kenta Izumi, Seiji Osaka and Chinami Nishimura announce their candidacies.
• 18 November – Junya Ogawa announces his candidacy.
• 19 November – Date of nominations; campaign officially begins.
• 22 November – The first of three public debate between the leadership candidates is held.
• 24 November – Second debate between the candidates.
• 25 November – Third debate between the candidates.
• 29 November – Deadline for members, supporters, and local assembly officials to vote.
• 30 November – Counting of member and local assembly votes; Diet MPs and candidates vote. Runoff is held; election result announced.

Opinion polls

Fieldwork date	Polling firm	Sample size	Izumi	Osaka	Nishimura	Ogawa	Ogushi	Eda	Mabuchi	Genba	Renhō	Nagatsuma	Okada	Others	NOT/ UD/NA
20–21 Nov2021	ANN	1,031	12	8	10	9	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	–	61
10–11 Nov2021	Kyodo News	520	8.1	–	3.6	6.7	2.4	–	7.2	6.7	–	–	–	5.9	59.4
10–11 Nov2021	Nikkei/TV Tokyo	852	3	2	–	6	1	4	4	4	14	11	7	–	44

Results

An extraordinary party convention was held at a hotel in Tokyo on the afternoon of November 30. The votes of party members and supporters, as well as local assembly officials, were counted and reported. Diet members and approved candidates then cast their votes. In the first round, Izumi placed first with 189 points, followed by Osaka with 148, Ogawa with 133, and Nishimura with 102. As expected, Izumi came first, but no candidate secured a majority and a runoff thus took place. Unexpectedly, Ogawa fell short of making the runoff due to low support from local assembly officials, despite outperforming Osaka among Diet members. The previous plan for Ogawa, Osaka, and Nishimura's camps to coordinate in the runoff thus fell apart, and most of Ogawa's supporters switched to Izumi, delivering him a comfortable victory. ^[20]

First round

Candidate		Diet members			Party members & supporters			Local assembly members			Diet candidates			Total
		Votes	%	Points	Votes	%	Points	Votes	%	Points	Votes	%	Points
	Kenta Izumi	47	33.6	94	15,200	32.9	47	369	31.9	46	2	33.3	2	189
	Seiji Osaka	29	20.7	58	12,411	26.9	38	385	33.3	48	4	66.7	4	148
	Junya Ogawa	36	25.7	72	10,912	23.6	34	219	18.9	27	0	0.0	0	133
	Chinami Nishimura	28	20.0	56	7,666	16.6	24	183	15.8	22	0	0.0	0	102
Total		140	100.0	280	46,189	100.0	143	1,156	100.0	143	6	100.0	6	572
Invalid		0			559			?			?
Turnout		140	100.0		46,439	46.3		?	?		?	?
Eligible		140			100,267			?			?
Source: CDP

Runoff

Candidate		Diet members			Diet candidates			Prefectural representatives			Total
		Votes	%	Points	Votes	%	Points	Votes	%	Points
	Kenta Izumi	84	60.0	168	2	33.3	2	35	74.5	35	205
	Seiji Osaka	56	40.0	112	4	66.7	4	12	25.5	12	128
Total		140	100.0	280	6	100.0	6	47	100.0	47	333
Invalid		0			?			0
Turnout		140	100.0		?	?		47	100.0
Eligible		140			?			47
Source: CDP

References

1. Johnston, Eric (30 November 2021). "Japan's main opposition party seeks to rebuild under new leader Kenta Izumi". The Japan Times . Archived from the original on 30 November 2021.
2. "Opposition parties sign joint policy pact ahead of fall election". Asahi Shimbun . 8 September 2021.
3. Johnston, Eric (13 October 2021). "Major opposition parties in Japan unite in attempt to dislodge LDP". The Japan Times . Archived from the original on 13 October 2021.
4. Sugiyama, Satoshi (19 October 2021). "LDP projected to retain majority in election but lose 40 seats". The Japan Times . Archived from the original on 19 October 2021.
5. Sugiyama, Satoshi (1 November 2021). "LDP projected to secure majority in Lower House election". The Japan Times . Archived from the original on 31 October 2021.
6. Johnston, Eric (1 November 2021). "Failed cooperation effort prompts soul-searching by Japan's opposition". The Japan Times . Archived from the original on 1 November 2021.
7. "CDP leader Yukio Edano to quit post after poor election results". The Japan Times . 2 November 2021. Archived from the original on 2 November 2021.
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9. "Junya Ogawa announces his candidacy for the Constitutional Democratic Party leadership election; Hiroshi Ogushi withdraws and offers his support". Asahi Shimbun (in Japanese). 18 November 2021.
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11. "Four camps have a total of 90 endorsers in the Constitutional Democratic Party leadership election, solidifying 70% of Diet members". Asahi Shimbun (in Japanese). 19 November 2021.
12. "Former Foreign Minister Koichiro Gemba: "I won't be stepping in" in the Constitutional Democratic Party leadership election". Mainichi Shimbun (in Japanese). 10 November 2021.
13. "Eda Announces He Won't Run in CDP Leadership Election: "I Take Responsibility for Not Being Able to Support Edano"". Nordot (in Japanese). 16 November 2021.
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16. Johnston, Eric (19 November 2021). "Four candidates vie to lead Japan's CDP after election disappointment". The Japan Times . Archived from the original on 19 November 2021.
17. "Two candidates announce their candidacy for the CDP leadership election, likely centering on centrist Kenta Izumi and liberal Seiji Osaka". Yomiuri Shimbun (in Japanese). 16 November 2021.
18. "Constitutional Democratic Party Leadership Election: Nishimura Chinami "Deciding to Run"". Nippon News Network (in Japanese). 17 November 2021.
19. "Ichiro Ozawa supports Izumi in the Constitutional Democratic Party leadership election; party groups hold successive meetings". Mainichi Shimbun (in Japanese). 18 November 2021.
20. "The Man Who Didn't Become Leader: A Scenario for Victory That Ended in Disappointment". NHK (in Japanese). 3 December 2021. Archived from the original on 3 December 2021.
21. "Junya Ogawa to Run in the CDP Leadership Election - Four Candidates, Opposition Coalition Focus". Nordot (in Japanese). 18 November 2021.
22. "Constitutional Democratic Party (CDP) leadership election announcement: A close contest is inevitable. The focus is on the merits of opposition alliances". Fuji News Network (in Japanese). 19 November 2021. Archived from the original on 19 November 2021.
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