Butterfly effect in popular culture

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The butterfly effect describes a phenomenon in chaos theory whereby a minor change in circumstances can cause a large change in outcome. The scientific concept is attributed to Edward Lorenz, a mathematician and meteorologist who used the metaphor to describe his research findings related to chaos theory and weather prediction, [1] [2] initially in a 1972 paper titled "Predictability: Does the Flap of a Butterfly's Wings in Brazil Set Off a Tornado in Texas?" [3] The butterfly metaphor is attributed to the 1952 Ray Bradbury short story "A Sound of Thunder". [1] [4]

Contents

The concept has been widely adopted by popular culture, and interpreted to mean that small events have a rippling effect that cause much larger events to occur, [5] [6] and has become a common reference. [7] [8] [9]

Examples

"A Sound of Thunder"

The 1952 short story "A Sound of Thunder" by Ray Bradbury explores the concept of how the death of a butterfly in the past could have drastic changes in the future, and has been used as an example of "the butterfly effect" and how to consider chaos theory and the physics of time travel. [10] [4] The story has since been made into a film of the same name and an episode of the television series Ray Bradbury Theater.

Films

The influence of the concept can be seen in the films The Terminator , Back to the Future , [4] [11] X-Men: Days of Future Past , [12] Maheshinte Prathikaram and Cloud Atlas . [13]

In the 1990 film Havana , the character played by Robert Redford states, "A butterfly can flutter its wings over a flower in China and cause a hurricane in the Caribbean", and scientists "can even calculate the odds". [14] According to science journalist Peter Dizikes, the films Havana and The Butterfly Effect mischaracterize the butterfly effect by asserting the effect can be calculated with certainty, because this is the opposite of its scientific meaning in chaos theory as it relates to the unpredictability of certain physical systems; Dizikes writes in 2008, "The larger meaning of the butterfly effect is not that we can readily track such connections, but that we can't." [5] [14]

In the 1993 movie Jurassic Park , Dr. Ian Malcolm (played by Jeff Goldblum) attempts to explain chaos theory to Dr. Ellie Sattler (played by Laura Dern), specifically referencing the butterfly effect, by stating "It simply deals with unpredictability in complex systems", and "The shorthand is 'the butterfly effect.' A butterfly can flap its wings in Peking, and in Central Park, you get rain instead of sunshine." [1] [15]

Other examples include Terry Pratchett's novel Interesting Times , which tells of the magical "Quantum Weather Butterfly" with the ability to manipulate weather patterns. [16] The 2009 film Mr. Nobody incorporates the butterfly effect [17] and the concept of smaller events that result in larger changes altering a person's life. [18]

A Telugu film named Nannaku Prematho (2016) also has the concept of Butterfly effect in it.

The 2020 - 2021 miniseries of short films Explaining the Pandemic to my Past Self by Julie Nolke incorporates the butterfly effect as a limitation on how much she can explain to her past self. [19]

The 2021 film Needle in a Timestack is described in a review by The Guardian as having a plot where the character played by Leslie Odom Jr. "sets off a calamitous butterfly effect that results in, not the survival of dinosaurs, not a deadly plague, not an Allied loss of the second world war, but him being married to Freida Pinto instead of Cynthia Erivo." [20]

Television

The concept is referenced in a Treehouse of Horror episode of the television series The Simpsons . [21]

"My Butterfly", an episode from the TV show Scrubs , features two separate timelines, each influenced by the butterfly effect. [22] The season four premiere episodes of Ugly Betty are named "The Butterfly Effect Part 1" and "The Butterfly Effect Part 2", and a review of the episodes in Vulture states, "Ugly Betty is certainly invested in the physics of the Butterfly Effect, too: One small change can indeed cause large-scale effects." [23]

"If-Then-Else", an episode from Person of Interest, features an artificial intelligence software running simulations of different situations and even the smallest changes completely change the outcome.

The miniseries Black Bird (2022) begins with a narration about the butterfly effect. [24]

Video games

The concept is also incorporated into video games, including Eve Online . [25] The 2015 video game Until Dawn features the butterfly effect as a central plot point, using the concept to describe how player choices can drastically affect the outcome of events. [26] [27] The video game series Life Is Strange , first released in 2015, makes multiple references to the butterfly effect and uses it to describe how player choices affect the plot of the game. [28] [29]

Books

The 2020 biography of Kendrick Lamar, The Butterfly Effect: How Kendrick Lamar Ignited the Soul of Black America by Marcus J. Moore, chronicles "what if" moments during Lamar's life and developing career, [30] including what happened after the release of To Pimp a Butterfly . [31]

The 2020 book The Butterfly Effect: Insects and the Making of the Modern World by Edward Melillo incorporates the concept to discuss the influence of insects. [32]

During the COVID-19 pandemic, doctor and journalist Peter Endicott used the butterfly effect to describe the impact of increased waiting times within the health care system in the UK, i.e. "The knock-on effect this would have on my day – the beating of a butterfly's wings in the morning causing tornadoes by the afternoon." [33] The butterfly effect was also used as a justification for the suppression of news in China about the death of Li Wenliang. [34]

The song “The Certainty of Chance” by The Divine Comedy alludes to the butterfly effect. Its lyrics describes events such as a butterfly flying through the rain and causing a hurricane, and a student pressing a button and causing computers around the world to crash. [35] [36]

AI-powered Large Language Models


Hallucinations in Large Language Models, such as ChatGPT, occur when these models produce information that isn't grounded in either the input they receive or the data on which they were trained. Recently, an intriguing hypothesis has been proposed to draw a parallel between this phenomenon and the 'butterfly effect,' which is a concept from chaos theory involving the sensitive dependence on initial conditions (SDIC). [37] Essentially, in systems characterized by chaos, small initial differences can lead to significantly divergent outcomes, a process which initially shows a continuous dependence on initial conditions (CDIC) before abruptly shifting to SDIC. This period of CDIC before the shift determines the window during which predictions can be considered reliable.

However, the length of this window—termed the 'predictability horizon'—can change depending on the specific starting conditions and model parameters involved. [38] Moreover, the point at which SDIC begins is generally unpredictable. Additionally, systems containing coexisting chaotic and non-chaotic elements may exhibit a dependence of final states on starting conditions, complicating the task of identifying the CDIC interval. [39] In the field of meteorology, techniques such as conducting multiple ensemble simulations with slight variations in initial conditions or using several different models are employed to extend and determine these predictability horizons.

Such meteorological strategies might be adapted to manage and understand when and how hallucinations emerge in Large Language Models, thereby improving the reliability of the information these models generate.

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Butterfly effect</span> Idea that small causes can have large effects

In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chaos theory</span> Field of mathematics and science based on non-linear systems and initial conditions

Chaos theory is an interdisciplinary area of scientific study and branch of mathematics. It focuses on underlying patterns and deterministic laws of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions. These were once thought to have completely random states of disorder and irregularities. Chaos theory states that within the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems, there are underlying patterns, interconnection, constant feedback loops, repetition, self-similarity, fractals and self-organization. The butterfly effect, an underlying principle of chaos, describes how a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. A metaphor for this behavior is that a butterfly flapping its wings in Brazil can cause a tornado in Texas.

A complex system is a system composed of many components which may interact with each other. Examples of complex systems are Earth's global climate, organisms, the human brain, infrastructure such as power grid, transportation or communication systems, complex software and electronic systems, social and economic organizations, an ecosystem, a living cell, and, ultimately, for some authors, the entire universe.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Determinism</span> Philosophical view that events are determined by prior events

Determinism is the philosophical view that all events in the universe, including human decisions and actions, are causally inevitable. Deterministic theories throughout the history of philosophy have developed from diverse and sometimes overlapping motives and considerations. Like eternalism, determinism focuses on particular events rather than the future as a concept. The opposite of determinism is indeterminism, or the view that events are not deterministically caused but rather occur due to chance. Determinism is often contrasted with free will, although some philosophers claim that the two are compatible.

Physical causality is a physical relationship between causes and effects. It is considered to be fundamental to all natural sciences and behavioural sciences, especially physics. Causality is also a topic studied from the perspectives of philosophy, statistics and logic. Causality means that an effect can not occur from a cause that is not in the back (past) light cone of that event. Similarly, a cause can not have an effect outside its front (future) light cone.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Nikolaas Tinbergen</span> Dutch zoologist and ethologist (1907–1988)

Nikolaas "Niko" Tinbergen was a Dutch biologist and ornithologist who shared the 1973 Nobel Prize in Physiology or Medicine with Karl von Frisch and Konrad Lorenz for their discoveries concerning the organization and elicitation of individual and social behavior patterns in animals. He is regarded as one of the founders of modern ethology, the study of animal behavior.

Understanding is a cognitive process related to an abstract or physical object, such as a person, situation, or message whereby one is able to use concepts to model that object. Understanding is a relation between the knower and an object of understanding. Understanding implies abilities and dispositions with respect to an object of knowledge that are sufficient to support intelligent behavior.

Predictability is the degree to which a correct prediction or forecast of a system's state can be made, either qualitatively or quantitatively.

A deterministic system is a conceptual model of the philosophical doctrine of determinism applied to a system for understanding everything that has and will occur in the system, based on the physical outcomes of causality. In a deterministic system, every action, or cause, produces a reaction, or effect, and every reaction, in turn, becomes the cause of subsequent reactions. The totality of these cascading events can theoretically show exactly how the system will exist at any moment in time.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tipping point (sociology)</span>

In sociology, a tipping point is a point in time when a group—or many group members—rapidly and dramatically changes its behavior by widely adopting a previously rare practice.

The butterfly effect is a metaphor for sensitive dependence on initial conditions in chaos theory.

"A Sound of Thunder" is a science fiction short story by American writer Ray Bradbury, first published in Collier's magazine in the June 28, 1952, issue, and later in Bradbury's collection The Golden Apples of the Sun in 1953.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Edward Norton Lorenz</span> American mathematician (1917 – 2008)

Edward Norton Lorenz was an American mathematician and meteorologist who established the theoretical basis of weather and climate predictability, as well as the basis for computer-aided atmospheric physics and meteorology. He is best known as the founder of modern chaos theory, a branch of mathematics focusing on the behavior of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Time travel in fiction</span> Concept and accompanying genre in fiction

Time travel is a common theme in fiction, mainly since the late 19th century, and has been depicted in a variety of media, such as literature, television, film, and advertisements.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lorenz system</span> System of ordinary differential equations with chaotic solutions

The Lorenz system is a system of ordinary differential equations first studied by mathematician and meteorologist Edward Lorenz. It is notable for having chaotic solutions for certain parameter values and initial conditions. In particular, the Lorenz attractor is a set of chaotic solutions of the Lorenz system. The term "butterfly effect" in popular media may stem from the real-world implications of the Lorenz attractor, namely that several different initial chaotic conditions evolve in phase space in a way that never repeats, so all chaos is unpredictable. This underscores that chaotic systems can be completely deterministic and yet still be inherently unpredictable over long periods of time. Because chaos continually increases in systems, it is impossible to predict the future of systems well. For instance, even the small flap of a butterfly's wings could set the world on a vastly different trajectory, such as by causing a hurricane. The shape of the Lorenz attractor itself, when plotted in phase space, may also be seen to resemble a butterfly.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Black swan theory</span> Theory of response to surprise events

The black swan theory or theory of black swan events is a metaphor that describes an event that comes as a surprise, has a major effect, and is often inappropriately rationalized after the fact with the benefit of hindsight. The term is based on an ancient Roman saying expressing the European presumption that black swans did not exist until Dutch mariners saw them in Australia in 1697, and the term was then reinterpreted to mean an unforeseen and consequential event.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">David Orrell</span> Canadian writer and mathematician

David John Orrell is a Canadian writer and mathematician. He received his doctorate in mathematics from the University of Oxford. His work in the prediction of complex systems such as the weather, genetics and the economy has been featured in New Scientist, the Financial Times, The Economist, Adbusters, BBC Radio, Russia-1, and CBC TV. He now conducts research and writes in the areas of systems biology and economics, and runs a mathematical consultancy Systems Forecasting. He is the son of theatre historian and English professor John Orrell.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Kendrick Lamar</span> American rapper (born 1987)

Kendrick Lamar Duckworth is an American rapper and singer-songwriter. Often regarded as one of the greatest rappers of all time, he is the only musician outside of the classical and jazz genres to be awarded the Pulitzer Prize for Music. Publications widely believe that his regular infusion of political criticism and social commentary influenced a rise of social consciousness within his generation.

<i>To Pimp a Butterfly</i> 2015 studio album by Kendrick Lamar

To Pimp a Butterfly is the third studio album by American rapper Kendrick Lamar. It was released on March 15, 2015, by Top Dawg Entertainment, Aftermath Entertainment and Interscope Records. The album was recorded in studios throughout the United States, with production from Sounwave, Terrace Martin, Taz "Tisa" Arnold, Thundercat, Rahki, LoveDragon, Flying Lotus, Pharrell Williams, Boi-1da, Knxwledge, and several other high-profile hip hop producers, as well as executive production from Dr. Dre and Anthony "Top Dawg" Tiffith. Guest appearances include Thundercat, George Clinton, Bilal, Anna Wise, Snoop Dogg, James Fauntleroy, Ronald Isley, and Rapsody.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dragon king theory</span> Event that is both extremely large in effect and of unique origins

Dragon king is a double metaphor for an event that is both extremely large in size or effect and born of unique origins relative to its peers. DK events are generated by or correspond to mechanisms such as positive feedback, tipping points, bifurcations, and phase transitions, that tend to occur in nonlinear and complex systems, and serve to amplify Dragon king events to extreme levels. By understanding and monitoring these dynamics, some predictability of such events may be obtained.

References

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  2. ↑ "The Butterfly Effect Is Why It's Impossible to Predict the Weather". Discovery. 1 August 2019. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  3. ↑ "Edward Lorenz, father of chaos theory and butterfly effect, dies at 90". MIT News. 16 April 2008. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  4. 1 2 3 Cooper, Quentin (16 February 2015). "The paradox of popping back in time". BBC Future. Archived from the original on 15 November 2020. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  5. 1 2 Dizikes, Petyer (8 June 2008). "The meaning of the butterfly". The Boston Globe . Retrieved 8 June 2016.
  6. ↑ Hartl, John (21 January 2004). "'Butterfly Effect' just doesn't fly". Today. Retrieved 22 May 2021.
  7. ↑ Dooley, Kevin J. (August 2009). "The Butterfly Effect of the 'Butterfly Effect'". Nonlinear Dynamics Psychology and Life Sciences. 13 (3): 279–288. PMID   19527619 . Retrieved 6 May 2022.
  8. ↑ Ornes, Stephen (19 April 2007). "Whatever Happened to... Chaos Theory?". Discover . Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  9. ↑ McLain, Asia (25 May 2019). "19 People Share Their 'Butterfly Effect' Stories And You Will Go, 'Whoa.'". Buzzfeed. Retrieved 22 May 2021.
  10. ↑ Flam, Faye (15 June 2012). "The Physics of Ray Bradbury's "A Sound of Thunder"". The Philadelphia Inquirer . Retrieved 2 September 2015.
  11. ↑ Delbert, Caroline (30 July 2020). "Quantum Mechanics Proves 'Back to the Future' Is B.S." Popular Mechanics. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  12. ↑ "'The Flash,' 'Arrow' Crossover Charts Course Toward 'Tomorrow' Land (Spoilers)". Variety. 1 December 2015. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  13. ↑ Brody, Richard (1 November 2012). "Synchronized Banality: 'Cloud Atlas'". The New Yorker. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  14. 1 2 Dizikes, Peter (22 February 2011). "When the Butterfly Effect Took Flight". MIT Technology Review . Retrieved 22 May 2021.
  15. ↑ Clader, Emily (13 August 2014). "Did chaos cause mayhem in Jurassic Park?". Plus Magazine . Retrieved 8 June 2016.
  16. ↑ Stewart, Ian (23 March 2015). "Five Things Discworld Will Teach You About Science". IFL Science. Retrieved 8 June 2016.
  17. ↑ "Van Dormael prepares 'Nobody'". Variety. 12 February 2007. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  18. ↑ Kenigsberg, Ben (31 October 2013). "Mr. Nobody". A.V. Club. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  19. ↑ Ifeanyi, KC (15 April 2020). "This comedian warning her past self about COVID-19 hilariously nails how ill prepared we were". Fast Company . Retrieved 24 April 2021.
  20. ↑ Heritage, Stuart (15 October 2021). "Is Needle in a Timestack the most brilliantly bad film title ever?". The Guardian . Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  21. ↑ Dockterman, Eliana (26 April 2019). "Breaking Down the Complicated Time Travel in Avengers: Endgame". Time . Retrieved 22 May 2021.
  22. ↑ McNutt, Myles (22 July 2013). "Scrubs: "My Tormented Mentor"/"My Butterfly"". The A.V. Club . Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  23. ↑ Ganz, Caryn (19 October 2009). "Ugly Betty Season Premiere: Meet Your Makeover". Vulture . Retrieved 10 April 2022.
  24. ↑ "The late Ray Liotta is perfectly cast in 'Black Bird,' his final TV performance". LA Times.
  25. ↑ "EVE Online 'Butterfly Effect' Trailer". Shack News. 1 December 2009. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  26. ↑ Takahashi, Dean (25 August 2015). "In Sony's Until Dawn interactive horror game, the player becomes part of the narrative". VentureBeat. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  27. ↑ Dunn, Matthew (25 August 2015). "Until Dawn follows theme of survival horror movie by immersing players in a nerve-racking scenario". News AU. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  28. ↑ Makuch, Eddie (23 January 2015). "Watch: Life is Strange Dev Talks Time-Travel Butterfly Effect in New Video". GameSpot. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  29. ↑ Gailloreto, Coleman (11 August 2020). "What Tell Me Why Could Learn From Life is Strange". ScreenRant. Retrieved 8 July 2021.
  30. ↑ Lynskey, Dorian (12 October 2020). "The Butterfly Effect by Marcus J Moore review – hobbled by jargon". The Guardian. Retrieved 22 May 2021.
  31. ↑ "The Butterfly Effect: How Kendrick Lamar Ignited the Soul of Black America". Kirkus Reviews . 15 September 2020. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  32. ↑ "The Butterfly Effect: Insects and the Making of the Modern World". Kirkus Reviews . 15 May 2020. Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  33. ↑ Endicott, Peter (16 August 2021). "NHS doctors know too well how waiting times damage all aspects of patient care". The Guardian . Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  34. ↑ Zhong, Raymond; Mozur, Paul; Kao, Jeff; Krolik, Aaron (19 December 2020). "Thousands of internal documents reveal how China censored its internet in the early days of the pandemic". The New York Times . Retrieved 9 April 2022.
  35. ↑ The Divine Comedy – The Certainty Of Chance , retrieved 22 April 2024
  36. ↑ The Divine Comedy - The Certainty Of Chance . Retrieved 22 April 2024– via www.youtube.com.
  37. ↑ Shen, Bo-Wen; Pielke Sr, Roger (4 April 2024). "Special Issue Theme Topic: "Advances in Understanding the Butterfly Effect, Chaos, and Multiscale Dynamics in the AI Era": Reframing Predictability Through AI and Chaos Theory". ResearchGate. doi:10.13140/RG.2.2.33483.20003 . Retrieved 4 April 2024.
  38. ↑ Shen, Bo-Wen; Pielke, Roger A.; Zeng, Xubin; Baik, Jong-Jin; Faghih-Naini, Sara; Cui, Jialin; Atlas, Robert (1 January 2021). "Is Weather Chaotic?: Coexistence of Chaos and Order within a Generalized Lorenz Model". Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society. 102 (1): E148–E158. Bibcode:2021BAMS..102E.148S. doi: 10.1175/BAMS-D-19-0165.1 . ISSN   0003-0007. S2CID   208369617.
  39. ↑ Shen, Bo-Wen Shen (1 March 2019). "Aggregated Negative Feedback in a Generalized Lorenz Model". International Journal of Bifurcation and Chaos. 29 (3): 1950037–1950091. Bibcode:2019IJBC...2950037S. doi:10.1142/S0218127419500378.
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