David Orrell

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David Orrell (left) speaking with Robert Matthews at the Art Center Global Dialogues, Barcelona, 2008 David Orrell at Art Center Global Dialogues.jpg
David Orrell (left) speaking with Robert Matthews at the Art Center Global Dialogues, Barcelona, 2008

David John Orrell is a Canadian writer and mathematician. He received his doctorate in mathematics from the University of Oxford. His work in the prediction of complex systems such as the weather, genetics and the economy has been featured in New Scientist, the Financial Times, The Economist, Adbusters, BBC Radio, Russia-1, and CBC TV. He now conducts research and writes in the areas of systems biology and economics, [1] and runs a mathematical consultancy Systems Forecasting. He is the son of theatre historian and English professor John Orrell.

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His books have been translated into over ten languages. Apollo's Arrow: The Science of Prediction and the Future of Everything was a national bestseller and finalist for the 2007 Canadian Science Writers' Award. Economyths: Ten Ways Economics Gets It Wrong was a finalist for the 2011 National Business Book Award.

Criticism of use of mathematical models

A consistent topic in Orrell’s work is the limitations of mathematical models, and the need to acknowledge these limitations if we are to understand the causes of forecast error. He argues for example that errors in weather prediction are caused primarily by model error, rather than the butterfly effect. [2] Economic models are seen as particularly unrealistic. [3] In Truth or Beauty: Science and the Quest for Order, he suggests that many such theories, along with areas of physics such as string theory, are motivated largely by the desire to conform with a traditional scientific aesthetic, that is currently being subverted by developments in complexity science. [4]

Quantum theory of money and value

Orrell is considered a leading proponent of quantum finance and quantum economics. [5] In The Evolution of Money [6] (coauthored with journalist Roman Chlupatý) and a series of articles [7] [8] [9] he proposed a quantum theory of money and value, which states that money has dualistic properties because it combines the properties of an owned and valued thing, with those of abstract number. The fact that these two sides of money are incompatible leads to its complex and often unpredictable behavior. In Quantum Economics: The New Science of Money he argued that these dualistic properties feed up to affect the economy as a whole. [10]

Books

See also

Related Research Articles

In economics, adaptive expectations is a hypothesized process by which people form their expectations about what will happen in the future based on what has happened in the past. For example, if people want to create an expectation of the inflation rate in the future, they can refer to past inflation rates to infer some consistencies and could derive a more accurate expectation the more years they consider.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Butterfly effect</span> Idea that small causes can have large effects

In chaos theory, the butterfly effect is the sensitive dependence on initial conditions in which a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Chaos theory</span> Field of mathematics and science based on non-linear systems and initial conditions

Chaos theory is an interdisciplinary area of scientific study and branch of mathematics focused on underlying patterns and deterministic laws of dynamical systems that are highly sensitive to initial conditions, and were once thought to have completely random states of disorder and irregularities. Chaos theory states that within the apparent randomness of chaotic complex systems, there are underlying patterns, interconnection, constant feedback loops, repetition, self-similarity, fractals, and self-organization. The butterfly effect, an underlying principle of chaos, describes how a small change in one state of a deterministic nonlinear system can result in large differences in a later state. A metaphor for this behavior is that a butterfly flapping its wings in Texas can cause a tornado in Brazil.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Measurement</span> Process of assigning numbers to objects or events

Measurement is the quantification of attributes of an object or event, which can be used to compare with other objects or events. In other words, measurement is a process of determining how large or small a physical quantity is as compared to a basic reference quantity of the same kind. The scope and application of measurement are dependent on the context and discipline. In natural sciences and engineering, measurements do not apply to nominal properties of objects or events, which is consistent with the guidelines of the International vocabulary of metrology published by the International Bureau of Weights and Measures. However, in other fields such as statistics as well as the social and behavioural sciences, measurements can have multiple levels, which would include nominal, ordinal, interval and ratio scales.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Prediction</span> Statement about a future event

A prediction, or forecast, is a statement about a future event or data. They are often, but not always, based upon experience or knowledge. There is no universal agreement about the exact difference from "estimation"; different authors and disciplines ascribe different connotations.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Economic model</span> Simplified representation of economic reality

An economic model is a theoretical construct representing economic processes by a set of variables and a set of logical and/or quantitative relationships between them. The economic model is a simplified, often mathematical, framework designed to illustrate complex processes. Frequently, economic models posit structural parameters. A model may have various exogenous variables, and those variables may change to create various responses by economic variables. Methodological uses of models include investigation, theorizing, and fitting theories to the world.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jacob Marschak</span> American economist (1898-1977)

Jacob Marschak was an American economist.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Theoretical physics</span> Branch of physics

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An index list of articles about the philosophy of science.

<i>Apollos Arrow</i> 2007 book about prediction by David Orrell

Apollo’s Arrow: The Science of Prediction and the Future of Everything is a non-fiction book about prediction written by Canadian author and mathematician David Orrell. The book was initially published in Canada by HarperCollins in 2007, and was a national bestseller. It was published in the United States as The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction, and translated versions were also published in Japan, South Korea and China.

<i>Economyths</i> Economics book

Economyths is a book by the mathematician David Orrell about the problems with mainstream economics, written for the general reader. The book was initially published in 2010 by Icon Books in the UK with the subtitle Ten Ways That Economics Gets it Wrong, and by John Wiley & Sons in North America. Icon published a revised version in 2012, with the subtitle How the Science of Complex Systems Is Transforming Economic Thought. Translated versions were also published in Brazil, China, Japan, and Korea. In 2017, Icon published a revised and expanded version with the subtitle 11 Ways Economics Gets it Wrong.

Quantum economics is an emerging research field which applies mathematical methods and ideas from quantum physics to the field of economics. It is motivated by the belief that economic processes such as financial transactions have much in common with quantum processes, and can be appropriately modeled using the quantum formalism. It draws on techniques from the related areas of quantum finance and quantum cognition, and is a sub-field of quantum social science.

References

  1. "Biography" . Retrieved 1 September 2018.
  2. Orrell, David; Smith, Leonard; Barkmeijer, Jan; Palmer, Tim (2001). "Model error in weather forecasting". Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics. 9 (6): 357–371. Bibcode:2001NPGeo...8..357O. doi: 10.5194/npg-8-357-2001 .
  3. Orrell, David; McSharry, Patrick (2009). "System economics: Overcoming the pitfalls of forecasting models via a multidisciplinary approach". International Journal of Forecasting. 25 (4): 734–743. doi:10.1016/j.ijforecast.2009.05.002.
  4. Shea, Christopher (29 January 2013). "Is Scientific Truth Always Beautiful?". The Chronicle of Higher Education .
  5. "Schrödinger's markets". The Economist. Nov 6, 2021.
  6. Angel, James (2017). "The Evolution of Money. By David Orrell and Roman Chlupatý". Business History Review. 91 (2): 397–399. doi:10.1017/S0007680517000800. S2CID   158834606.
  7. Orrell, David (2016). "A Quantum Theory of Money and Value". Economic Thought. 5 (2): 19–28.
  8. Orrell, David (2017). "A Quantum Theory of Money and Value, Part 2: The Uncertainty Principle". Economic Thought. 6 (2): 14–26.
  9. Orrell, David (2020). "The value of value: A quantum approach to economics, security and international relations". Security Dialogue. 51 (5): 482–498. doi: 10.1177/0967010620901910 . S2CID   213426733.
  10. Clegg, Brian (5 July 2018). "Quantum Economics - David Orrell" . Retrieved 5 July 2018.