The duck curve is a graph of power production over the course of a day that shows the timing imbalance between peak demand and solar power generation. The graph resembles a sitting duck, and thus the term was created. [2] Used in utility-scale electricity generation, the term was coined in 2012 by the California Independent System Operator. [3] [4]
In some energy markets, daily peak demand occurs after sunset, when solar power is no longer available. In locations where a substantial amount of solar electric capacity has been installed, the amount of power that must be generated from sources other than solar or wind displays a rapid increase around sunset and peaks in the mid-evening hours, producing a graph that resembles the silhouette of a duck. [5] [6] In Hawaii, significant adoption of solar generation has led to the more pronounced curve known as the Nessie curve. [7] [8]
Without any form of energy storage, after times of high solar generation, power companies must rapidly increase other forms of power generation around the time of sunset to compensate for the loss of solar generation, a major concern for grid operators where there is rapid growth of photovoltaics. [9] Storage such as dammed hydropower can fix these issues if it can be implemented. [10] Short term use batteries, at a large enough scale of use, can help to flatten the duck curve and prevent generator use fluctuation and can help to maintain voltage profile. [11]
Methods for coping with the rapid increase in demand at sunset reflected in the duck curve, which becomes more serious as the penetration of solar generation grows, include: [11]
A major challenge is deploying mitigating capacity at a rate that keeps up with the growth of solar energy production. The effects of the duck curve have happened faster than anticipated. [15]
The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has been monitoring and analyzing the Duck Curve and its future expectations for about a half a century now and their biggest finding is the growing gap between morning and evening hours prices relative to midday hours prices. [1] According to their 2016 study, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, found that the wholesale energy market prices over the past six months during the 5 pm to 8 pm period (the "neck" of the duck) have increased to $60 per megawatt-hour, compared to about $35 per megawatt-hour in the same time frame in 2016. [5] However, on the other side they have measured a drastic decrease in the midday prices, nearing $15 per megawatt-hour. [5] [ needs update ] These high peaks and deep valleys are only showing continued trends of going further apart making this Duck Curve even more prevalent as renewable energy production continues to grow. [6] [2] [16]
A crucial part of this curve comes from the net load ("the difference between expected load and anticipated electricity production from the range of renewable energy sources"). [5] In certain times of the year (namely spring and summer), the curves create a "belly" appearance in the midday that then drastically increases portraying an "arch" similar to the neck of a duck, consequently the name "The Duck Chart. [17] " This "neck" represents a ramp speed of between 10 and 17 GW in 3 hours (afternoon) in 2020 which has to be supplied by flexible generation. [18] During the midday, large amounts of solar energy are created, which partially contributes to lower demand for additional electricity. [19] Curtailment impacts the curve. [18] Increasing battery storage can mitigate the issues of solar abundance during the day. When excess solar energy is stored during the day and used in the evening, the price disparity between inexpensive midday and expensive evening energy can be reduced. Enough total solar technology exists to power the world, but there is a current lack of infrastructure to store solar energy for later use. [9] An oversupply of energy during low demand coupled with a lack of supply during high demand explains the large disparity between midday and evening energy prices. As of 2022 [update] , up to 6 GWh is shifted per day from low price to high price periods. [20]
Distributed generation, also distributed energy, on-site generation (OSG), or district/decentralized energy, is electrical generation and storage performed by a variety of small, grid-connected or distribution system-connected devices referred to as distributed energy resources (DER).
Energy demand management, also known as demand-side management (DSM) or demand-side response (DSR), is the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods such as financial incentives and behavioral change through education.
Grid energy storage is a collection of methods used for energy storage on a large scale within an electrical power grid. Electrical energy is stored during times when electricity is plentiful and inexpensive or when demand is low, and later returned to the grid when demand is high, and electricity prices tend to be higher.
Peaking power plants, also known as peaker plants, and occasionally just "peakers", are power plants that generally run only when there is a high demand, known as peak demand, for electricity. Because they supply power only occasionally, the power supplied commands a much higher price per kilowatt hour than base load power. Peak load power plants are dispatched in combination with base load power plants, which supply a dependable and consistent amount of electricity, to meet the minimum demand.
Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) describes a system in which plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) sell demand response services to the grid. Demand services are either delivering electricity to the grid or reducing the rate of charge from the grid. Demand services reduce the peaks in demand for grid supply, and hence reduce the probability of disruption from load variations. Vehicle-to-load (V2L) and Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) are related, but the AC phase is not synchronised with the grid, so the power is only available to "off-grid" load.
Demand response is a change in the power consumption of an electric utility customer to better match the demand for power with the supply. Until the 21st century decrease in the cost of pumped storage and batteries, electric energy could not be easily stored, so utilities have traditionally matched demand and supply by throttling the production rate of their power plants, taking generating units on or off line, or importing power from other utilities. There are limits to what can be achieved on the supply side, because some generating units can take a long time to come up to full power, some units may be very expensive to operate, and demand can at times be greater than the capacity of all the available power plants put together. Demand response, a type of energy demand management, seeks to adjust in real-time the demand for power instead of adjusting the supply.
A virtual power plant (VPP) is a system that integrates multiple, possibly heterogeneous, power sources to provide grid power. A VPP typically sells its output to an electric utility. VPPs allow energy resources that are individually too small to be of interest to a utility to aggregate and market their power. As of 2024, VPPs operated in the United States, Europe, and Australia.
Dispatchable generation refers to sources of electricity that can be programmed on demand at the request of power grid operators, according to market needs. Dispatchable generators may adjust their power output according to an order. Non-dispatchable renewable energy sources such as wind power and solar photovoltaic (PV) power cannot be controlled by operators. Other types of renewable energy that are dispatchable without separate energy storage are hydroelectric, biomass, geothermal and ocean thermal energy conversion.
A load-following power plant, regarded as producing mid-merit or mid-priced electricity, is a power plant that adjusts its power output as demand for electricity fluctuates throughout the day. Load-following plants are typically in between base load and peaking power plants in efficiency, speed of start-up and shut-down, construction cost, cost of electricity and capacity factor.
Solar power, also known as solar electricity, is the conversion of energy from sunlight into electricity, either directly using photovoltaics (PV) or indirectly using concentrated solar power. Solar panels use the photovoltaic effect to convert light into an electric current. Concentrated solar power systems use lenses or mirrors and solar tracking systems to focus a large area of sunlight to a hot spot, often to drive a steam turbine.
Solar power has been growing rapidly in the U.S. state of California because of high insolation, community support, declining solar costs, and a renewable portfolio standard which requires that 60% of California's electricity come from renewable resources by 2030, with 100% by 2045. Much of this is expected to come from solar power via photovoltaic facilities or concentrated solar power facilities.
Different methods of electricity generation can incur a variety of different costs, which can be divided into three general categories: 1) wholesale costs, or all costs paid by utilities associated with acquiring and distributing electricity to consumers, 2) retail costs paid by consumers, and 3) external costs, or externalities, imposed on society.
The energy sector in Hawaii has rapidly adopted solar power due to the high costs of electricity, and good solar resources, and has one of the highest per capita rates of solar power in the United States. Hawaii's imported energy costs, mostly for imported petroleum and coal, are three to four times higher than the mainland, so Hawaii has motivation to become one of the highest users of solar energy. Hawaii was the first state in the United States to reach grid parity for photovoltaics. Its tropical location provides abundant ambient energy.
Variable renewable energy (VRE) or intermittent renewable energy sources (IRES) are renewable energy sources that are not dispatchable due to their fluctuating nature, such as wind power and solar power, as opposed to controllable renewable energy sources, such as dammed hydroelectricity or bioenergy, or relatively constant sources, such as geothermal power.
Energy is a major area of the economy of California. California is the state with the largest population and the largest economy in the United States. It is second in energy consumption after Texas. As of 2018, per capita consumption was the fourth-lowest in the United States partially because of the mild climate and energy efficiency programs.
The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) is a non-profit Independent System Operator (ISO) serving California. It oversees the operation of California's bulk electric power system, transmission lines, and electricity market generated and transmitted by its member utilities. CAISO is one of the largest ISOs in the world, delivering 300 million megawatt-hours of electricity each year and managing about 80% of California's electric flow.
The Tesla Powerpack was a rechargeable lithium-ion battery stationary energy storage product, intended for use by businesses or on smaller projects from power utilities. The device was manufactured by Tesla Energy, the clean energy subsidiary of Tesla, Inc. The Powerpack stores electricity for time of use load shifting, backup power, demand response, microgrids, renewable energy integration, frequency regulation, and voltage control. The first prototype Powerpacks were installed in 2012 at the locations of a few industrial customers. After July 22, 2022, the product was no longer listed for sale.
The Tehachapi Energy Storage Project (TSP) is a 8MW/32MWh lithium-ion battery-based grid energy storage system at the Monolith Substation of Southern California Edison (SCE) in Tehachapi, California, sufficient to power between 1,600 and 2,400 homes for four hours. At the time of commissioning in 2014, it was the largest lithium-ion battery system operating in North America and one of the largest in the world. TSP is considered to be a modern-day energy storage pioneer with significant accomplishments that have proven the viability of utility-scale energy storage using lithium-ion technology. While originally envisioned as a research and development project, TSP operated as a distribution-level resource for SCE and for calendar year 2020, SCE reported that TSP operated in the wholesale energy market with revenue exceeding operating and maintenance costs. In 2021, SCE began the decommissioning of TSP, which was followed by formal decommissioning by state regulators in 2022. The physical dismantlement of TSP is expected to be completed by the end of 2022.
In electric grid power generators, curtailment is the deliberate reduction in output below what could have been produced in order to balance energy supply and demand or due to transmission constraints. The definition is not strict, and several types of curtailment exist. "Economic dispatch" is the most common.
Capacity credit is the fraction of the installed capacity of a power plant which can be relied upon at a given time, frequently expressed as a percentage of the nameplate capacity. A conventional (dispatchable) power plant can typically provide the electricity at full power as long as it has a sufficient amount of fuel and is operational, therefore the capacity credit of such a plant is close to 100%; it is exactly 100% for some definitions of the capacity credit. The output of a variable renewable energy (VRE) plant depends on the state of an uncontrolled natural resource, therefore a mechanically and electrically sound VRE plant might not be able to generate at the rated capacity when needed, so its CC is much lower than 100%. The capacity credit is useful for a rough estimate of the firm power a system with weather-dependent generation can reliably provide. For example, with a low, but realistic wind power capacity credit of 5%, 20 gigawatts (GW) worth of wind power needs to be added to the system in order to permanently retire a 1 GW fossil fuel plant while keeping the electrical grid reliability at the same level.
even out the "solar duck curve". . install batteries and west-facing panels, which helps stretch solar generation into the afternoon-evening peak.
By charging up in the middle of the day, LDV fleets on EVgo's network also help to address the duck curve — where midday net load drops, driven by lots of solar flooding onto the grid
The growing amount of photovoltaic solar generation that is interconnected to the ISO grid continues to change the ISO's net load profile and creates more challenges and uncertainty for ISO operations. The result is a constantly increasing ramping requirement, significantly more than what has been required from the generat ion fleet in the past, both upward and downward. Furthermore, solar generation does not provide significant power at the hours ending 19:00 to 21:00, which leads to reliance on gas and other non-solar generation after sunset. The continuing decline in dispatchable generation in the ISO as dispatchable units retire is beginning to challenge the ISO system's ability to meet net peak demand after sunset and flexible capacity requirements.