Duck curve

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The Duck Curve
Blue curve: Demand for electrical power
Orange curve: (the duck curve) supply of electrical power from dispatchable sources,
Gray curve: supply of solar electrical power
Data is for the State of California on October 22, 2016 (a Saturday), a day when the wind power output was low and steady throughout the day.
The orange curve rises steeply from 17:00 to 18:00 as the sun sets, requiring about 5 gigawatt of generating capacity from dispatchable sources to come on line within one hour. Duck Curve CA-ISO 2016-10-22.agr.png
The Duck Curve
Blue curve: Demand for electrical power
Orange curve: (the duck curve) supply of electrical power from dispatchable sources,
Gray curve: supply of solar electrical power
Data is for the State of California on October 22, 2016 (a Saturday), a day when the wind power output was low and steady throughout the day.
The orange curve rises steeply from 17:00 to 18:00 as the sun sets, requiring about 5 gigawatt of generating capacity from dispatchable sources to come on line within one hour.

The duck curve is a graph of power production over the course of a day that shows the timing imbalance between peak demand and solar power generation. The graph resembles a sitting duck, and thus the term was created. [2] Used in utility-scale electricity generation, the term was coined in 2012 by the California Independent System Operator. [3] [4]

Contents

Solar power

In some energy markets, daily peak demand occurs after sunset, when solar power is no longer available. In locations where a substantial amount of solar electric capacity has been installed, the amount of power that must be generated from sources other than solar or wind displays a rapid increase around sunset and peaks in the mid-evening hours, producing a graph that resembles the silhouette of a duck. [5] [6] In Hawaii, significant adoption of solar generation has led to the more pronounced curve known as the Nessie curve. [7] [8]

Without any form of energy storage, after times of high solar generation, power companies must rapidly increase other forms of power generation around the time of sunset to compensate for the loss of solar generation, a major concern for grid operators where there is rapid growth of photovoltaics. [9] Storage such as dammed hydropower can fix these issues if it can be implemented. [10] Short term use batteries, at a large enough scale of use, can help to flatten the duck curve and prevent generator use fluctuation and can help to maintain voltage profile. [11]

Mitigation strategies

Methods for coping with the rapid increase in demand at sunset reflected in the duck curve, which becomes more serious as the penetration of solar generation grows, include: [11]

A major challenge is deploying mitigating capacity at a rate that keeps up with the growth of solar energy production. The effects of the duck curve have happened faster than anticipated. [15]

Duck curve in California

Sources of electricity generation in California in 2020. Because these graphs do not display energy demand, they are not Duck Curves themselves, but demonstrate daily and seasonal variation in power production.
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Natural gas
Solar power California average hourly electricity generation from natural gas, solar energy, and all other sources in selected months of 2020 (50705225643).png
Sources of electricity generation in California in 2020. Because these graphs do not display energy demand, they are not Duck Curves themselves, but demonstrate daily and seasonal variation in power production.
  Natural gas
  Solar power

The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) has been monitoring and analyzing the Duck Curve and its future expectations for about a half a century now and their biggest finding is the growing gap between morning and evening hours prices relative to midday hours prices. [1] According to their 2016 study, the U.S. Energy Information Administration, found that the wholesale energy market prices over the past six months during the 5 pm to 8 pm period (the "neck" of the duck) have increased to $60 per megawatt-hour, compared to about $35 per megawatt-hour in the same time frame in 2016. [5] However, on the other side they have measured a drastic decrease in the midday prices, nearing $15 per megawatt-hour. [5] [ needs update ] These high peaks and deep valleys are only showing continued trends of going further apart making this Duck Curve even more prevalent as renewable energy production continues to grow. [6] [2] [16]

A crucial part of this curve comes from the net load ("the difference between expected load and anticipated electricity production from the range of renewable energy sources"). [5] In certain times of the year (namely spring and summer), the curves create a "belly" appearance in the midday that then drastically increases portraying an "arch" similar to the neck of a duck, consequently the name "The Duck Chart. [17] " This "neck" represents a ramp speed of between 10 and 17 GW in 3 hours (afternoon) in 2020 which has to be supplied by flexible generation. [18] During the midday, large amounts of solar energy are created, which partially contributes to lower demand for additional electricity. [19] Curtailment impacts the curve. [18] Increasing battery storage can mitigate the issues of solar abundance during the day. When excess solar energy is stored during the day and used in the evening, the price disparity between inexpensive midday and expensive evening energy can be reduced. Enough total solar technology exists to power the world, but there is a current lack of infrastructure to store solar energy for later use. [9] An oversupply of energy during low demand coupled with a lack of supply during high demand explains the large disparity between midday and evening energy prices. As of 2022, up to 6 GWh is shifted per day from low price to high price periods. [20]

See also

Related Research Articles

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Energy demand management, also known as demand-side management (DSM) or demand-side response (DSR), is the modification of consumer demand for energy through various methods such as financial incentives and behavioral change through education.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Grid energy storage</span> Large scale electricity supply management

Grid energy storage is a collection of methods used for energy storage on a large scale within an electrical power grid. Electrical energy is stored during times when electricity is plentiful and inexpensive or when demand is low, and later returned to the grid when demand is high, and electricity prices tend to be higher.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Peaking power plant</span> Reserved for high demand times

Peaking power plants, also known as peaker plants, and occasionally just "peakers", are power plants that generally run only when there is a high demand, known as peak demand, for electricity. Because they supply power only occasionally, the power supplied commands a much higher price per kilowatt hour than base load power. Peak load power plants are dispatched in combination with base load power plants, which supply a dependable and consistent amount of electricity, to meet the minimum demand.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Vehicle-to-grid</span> Vehicle charging system that allows discharge and storage of electricity

Vehicle-to-grid (V2G) describes a system in which plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs) sell demand response services to the grid. Demand services are either delivering electricity to the grid or reducing the rate of charge from the grid. Demand services reduce the peaks in demand for grid supply, and hence reduce the probability of disruption from load variations. Vehicle-to-load (V2L) and Vehicle-to-vehicle (V2V) are related, but the AC phase is not synchronised with the grid, so the power is only available to "off-grid" load.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Demand response</span> Techniques used to prevent power networks from being overwhelmed

Demand response is a change in the power consumption of an electric utility customer to better match the demand for power with the supply. Until the 21st century decrease in the cost of pumped storage and batteries, electric energy could not be easily stored, so utilities have traditionally matched demand and supply by throttling the production rate of their power plants, taking generating units on or off line, or importing power from other utilities. There are limits to what can be achieved on the supply side, because some generating units can take a long time to come up to full power, some units may be very expensive to operate, and demand can at times be greater than the capacity of all the available power plants put together. Demand response, a type of energy demand management, seeks to adjust in real-time the demand for power instead of adjusting the supply.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dispatchable generation</span> Sources of electricity that can be used on demand

Dispatchable generation refers to sources of electricity that can be programmed on demand at the request of power grid operators, according to market needs. Dispatchable generators may adjust their power output according to an order. Non-dispatchable renewable energy sources such as wind power and solar photovoltaic (PV) power cannot be controlled by operators. Other types of renewable energy that are dispatchable without separate energy storage are hydroelectric, biomass, geothermal and ocean thermal energy conversion.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar power in Hawaii</span> Overview of solar power in the U.S. state of Hawaii

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">California Independent System Operator</span> Non-profit Independent System Operator serving California

The California Independent System Operator (CAISO) is a non-profit Independent System Operator (ISO) serving California. It oversees the operation of California's bulk electric power system, transmission lines, and electricity market generated and transmitted by its member utilities. CAISO is one of the largest ISOs in the world, delivering 300 million megawatt-hours of electricity each year and managing about 80% of California's electric flow.

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References

  1. 1 2 "California ISO - Renewables Reporting". www.caiso.com.
  2. 1 2 Azemena, Henri Joël; Ayadi, Ali; Samet, Ahmed (2022). "Explainable Artificial Intelligent as a solution approach to the Duck Curve problem". Procedia Computer Science. 207: 2747–2756. doi: 10.1016/j.procs.2022.09.333 .
  3. Roberts, David (20 March 2018). "Solar power's greatest challenge was discovered 10 years ago. It looks like a duck". Vox . Retrieved 20 March 2018.
  4. Staple, Gregory. "California's Grid Geeks: Flattening the 'duck curve'". Green Biz. Retrieved 9 May 2021.
  5. 1 2 3 4 Denholm, Paul; O'Connell, Matthew; Brinkman, Gregory; Jorgenson, Jennie (November 2015). "Overgeneration from Solar Energy in California: A Field Guide to the Duck Chart" (PDF). National Renewable Energy Laboratory. NREL/TP-6A20-65023.
  6. 1 2 Wirfs-Brock, Jordan (2 October 2014). "IE Questions: Why Is California Trying To Behead The Duck?". Inside Energy. Retrieved 29 October 2016.
  7. "Charting Hawaii's Spectacular Solar Growth". The Energy Collective. Archived from the original on 3 July 2018. Retrieved 4 February 2015.
  8. "Hawaii's Solar-Grid Landscape and the 'Nessie Curve'". 10 February 2014. Retrieved 10 January 2017.
  9. 1 2 "What the Duck Curve Tells Us About Managing A Green Grid" (PDF). caiso.com. California ISO. Retrieved 29 April 2015.
  10. Wallach, Omri (4 April 2022). "The Solar Power Duck Curve Explained". Elements by Visual Capitalist. Retrieved 28 December 2022.
  11. 1 2 Lazar, Jim. "Teaching the "Duck" to Fly" (PDF). RAP. Retrieved 29 April 2015.
  12. 1 2 Vorrath, Sophie (30 August 2020). "Solar tariffs reshaped to favour batteries, EVs, and west-facing panels". RenewEconomy. even out the "solar duck curve". . install batteries and west-facing panels, which helps stretch solar generation into the afternoon-evening peak.
  13. "It's time to start wasting solar energy". 29 December 2020. Retrieved 31 December 2020.
  14. Pyper, Julia (9 May 2019). "Electric Ridesharing Benefits the Grid, and EVgo Has the Data to Prove It". www.greentechmedia.com. Archived from the original on 18 October 2020. By charging up in the middle of the day, LDV fleets on EVgo's network also help to address the duck curve — where midday net load drops, driven by lots of solar flooding onto the grid
  15. "The California Duck Curve Is Real, and Bigger Than Expected". 3 November 2016. Retrieved 10 January 2017.
  16. "2021 Summer Loads and Resources Assessment" (PDF). California ISO. 23 May 2021. p. 36. Archived (PDF) from the original on 12 May 2021. The growing amount of photovoltaic solar generation that is interconnected to the ISO grid continues to change the ISO's net load profile and creates more challenges and uncertainty for ISO operations. The result is a constantly increasing ramping requirement, significantly more than what has been required from the generat ion fleet in the past, both upward and downward. Furthermore, solar generation does not provide significant power at the hours ending 19:00 to 21:00, which leads to reliance on gas and other non-solar generation after sunset. The continuing decline in dispatchable generation in the ISO as dispatchable units retire is beginning to challenge the ISO system's ability to meet net peak demand after sunset and flexible capacity requirements.
  17. "EIA Data Reveals California's Real and Growing Duck Curve" . Retrieved 1 December 2017.
  18. 1 2 "Final Flexible Capacity Needs Assessment for 2022" (PDF). California ISO. 14 May 2021. pp. 9–10. Archived (PDF) from the original on 7 January 2022.
  19. "A world turned upside down". The Economist. Retrieved 1 December 2017.
  20. Murray, Cameron (13 April 2022). "Battery storage load shifting up to 6GWh a day on CAISO grid; operator eyes SoC-linked prices". Energy Storage News. Archived from the original on 29 April 2022.