Emissions target

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Countries by intended year of climate neutrality. .mw-parser-output .legend{page-break-inside:avoid;break-inside:avoid-column}.mw-parser-output .legend-color{display:inline-block;min-width:1.25em;height:1.25em;line-height:1.25;margin:1px 0;text-align:center;border:1px solid black;background-color:transparent;color:black}.mw-parser-output .legend-text{} Already carbon neutral or negative 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2053 2060 2070 Unknown or undeclared Countries by intended year of climate neutrality.png
Countries by intended year of climate neutrality.
  Already carbon neutral or negative
  2030
  2035
  2040
  2045
  2050
  2053
  2060
  2070
  Unknown or undeclared
Emission budget and necessary emission reduction pathways to meet the two-degree target agreed in Paris Agreement without negative emissions, depending on the emission peak Carbon budget eng.png
Emission budget and necessary emission reduction pathways to meet the two-degree target agreed in Paris Agreement without negative emissions, depending on the emission peak
Share of energy consumption from renewable sources for EU and EEA countries 2020 and 2021, compared to the national targets for 2020. EU28 (including United Kingdom) pledged an average 20 percent renewable energy for 2020, and EU27 reached 22 percent. EU-27 share of renewable energy vs 2020 target.png
Share of energy consumption from renewable sources for EU and EEA countries 2020 and 2021, compared to the national targets for 2020. EU28 (including United Kingdom) pledged an average 20 percent renewable energy for 2020, and EU27 reached 22 percent.

An emissions target or greenhouse gas emissions reduction target is the central policy instrument of international greenhouse gas emissions reduction politics and a key pillar of climate policy. [2] [3] [4] [5] [6] [7] They typically include heavy consideration of emissions budgets, which are calculated using rate of warming per standard emission of carbon dioxide, a historic baseline temperature, a desired level of confidence and a target global average temperature to stay below. [8]

Contents

An "emissions target" may be distinguished from an emissions budget, as an emissions target may be internationally or nationally set in accordance with objectives other than a specific global temperature. This includes targets created for their political palatability, rather than budgets scientifically determined to meet a specific temperature target. [9] [10]

Calculation of Emissions Targets

A country's determination of emissions targets is based on careful consideration of pledged NDCs (nationally determined contributions), economic and social feasibility, and political palatability. [11] Carbon budgets can provide political entities with knowledge of how much carbon can be emitted before likely reaching a certain temperature threshold, but specific emissions targets take more into account. The exact way these targets are determined varies widely from country to country. Variation in emissions targets and time to complete them depends on factors such as accounting of land-use emissions, afforestation capacity of a country, and a countries transport emissions. [12] Importantly, emissions targets also depend on their hypothesized reception.

Many emissions pathways, budgets and targets also rely on the implementation of negative emissions technology. [13] These currently undeveloped technologies are predicted to pull net emissions down even as source emissions are not reduced.

Effectiveness of Targets

Many countries' emissions targets are above the scientifically calculated allowable emissions to remain below a certain temperature threshold. [14] [15] Recently in 2015, many countries pledged NDCs to limit the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2 °C above pre-industrial levels. [16] Many of the largest emitters of GHGs, however, are on track to push global average temperature to as much as 4 °C. [14] Some of these projections contradict agreements made in the 2015 Paris Agreement, meaning countries are not keeping to their pledged NDCs.

In addition, it is uncertain how effective many emissions targets and accompanying policies really are. [17] For example, with countries that have high consumption-based carbon emissions, strictly enforced, aligned and coordinated international policy measures determine the effectiveness of targets. In addition, many ambitious policies are proposed and passed but are not practically enforced or regulated, or have unintended consequences. China's ETS (emissions trading scheme), while seeming to have an effect on reducing production-based emissions also promoted outsourcing of emissions contributing to a further imbalance of carbon transfer among China's different provinces. [18] The ETS evaluation also did not account for exported consumption-based emissions.

Many countries aim to reach net zero emissions in the next few decades. [12] In order to reach this goal however, there must be a radical shift in energy infrastructure. [19] For example, in the United States, political entities are attempting to switch away from coal and oil based energy by replacing plants with natural gas combined cycle (NGCC) power plants. [20] However many find this transition to not be significant enough to reach net-zero emissions. [20] [21] More significant changes, for example using biomass energy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) are suggested as a viable option to transition to net-zero emissions countries. [22] [23]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Greenhouse effect</span> Atmospheric phenomenon causing planetary warming

The greenhouse effect is a process that occurs when energy from a planet's host star goes through its atmosphere and heats the planet's surface, but greenhouse gases in the atmosphere prevent some of the heat from returning directly to space, resulting in a warmer planet. Earth's natural greenhouse effect keeps the planet from having the below freezing temperature that it would have if there were no greenhouse gases. Additionally, human-caused increases in greenhouse gases trap greater amounts of heat, causing the Earth to grow warmer over time.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Sustainable energy</span>

Energy is sustainable if it "meets the needs of the present without compromising the ability of future generations to meet their own needs". Most definitions of sustainable energy include considerations of environmental aspects such as greenhouse gas emissions and social and economic aspects such as energy poverty. Renewable energy sources such as wind, hydroelectric power, solar, and geothermal energy are generally far more sustainable than fossil fuel sources. However, some renewable energy projects, such as the clearing of forests to produce biofuels, can cause severe environmental damage. The role of non-renewable energy sources in sustainable energy has been controversial. Nuclear power is a low-carbon source whose historic mortality rates are comparable to wind and solar, but its sustainability has been debated because of concerns about radioactive waste, nuclear proliferation, and accidents. Switching from coal to natural gas has environmental benefits, including a lower climate impact, but may lead to a delay in switching to more sustainable options. Carbon capture and storage can be built into power plants to remove their carbon dioxide emissions, but is expensive and has seldom been implemented.

Climate change mitigation generally refers to actions to limit climate change. The recent rise in global average temperature is mostly caused by greenhouse gases that are released released when fossil fuels are burned. The formal definition of climate change mitigation focuses on reducing greenhouse gas concentrations in the air, for example by transitioning to sustainable energy sources, conserving energy, and increasing efficiency. Further, CO2 can be removed from the atmosphere by enlarging forests and other natural and technical processes.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon capture and storage</span> Commercially unproven but improving method of storing greenhouse gases underground

Carbon capture and storage (CCS) or carbon capture and sequestration is the process of capturing carbon dioxide (CO2) before it enters the atmosphere, transporting it, and storing it (carbon sequestration) for centuries or millennia. Usually the CO2 is captured from large point sources, such as a chemical plant or biomass power plant, and then stored in an underground geological formation. The aim is to prevent the release of CO2 from heavy industry with the intent of mitigating the effects of climate change. CO2 has been injected into geological formations for several decades for enhanced oil recovery and after separation from natural gas, but this has been criticised for producing more emissions when the gas or oil is burned.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change</span> Current rise in Earths average temperature and its effects

In common usage, climate change describes global warming—the ongoing increase in global average temperature—and its effects on Earth's climate system. Climate change in a broader sense also includes previous long-term changes to Earth's climate. The current rise in global average temperature is more rapid than previous changes, and is primarily caused by humans burning fossil fuels. Fossil fuel use, deforestation, and some agricultural and industrial practices increase greenhouse gases, notably carbon dioxide and methane. Greenhouse gases absorb some of the heat that the Earth radiates after it warms from sunlight. Larger amounts of these gases trap more heat in Earth's lower atmosphere, causing global warming.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global Carbon Project</span>

The Global Carbon Project (GCP) is an organisation that seeks to quantify global greenhouse gas emissions and their causes. Established in 2001, its projects include global budgets for three dominant greenhouse gases—carbon dioxide, methane, and nitrous oxide —and complementary efforts in urban, regional, cumulative, and negative emissions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Global warming game</span> Type of serious game

A global warming game, also known as a climate game or a climate change game, is a type of serious game. As a serious game, it attempts to simulate and explore real life issues to educate players through an interactive experience. The issues particular to a global warming video game are usually energy efficiency and the implementation of green technology as ways to reduce greenhouse gas emissions and thus counteract global warming. Global warming games include traditional board games, video games, and other varieties such as role-playing and simulation-assisted multiplayer games.

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon dioxide removal</span> Removal of atmospheric carbon dioxide

Carbon dioxide removal (CDR), also known as negative CO2 emissions, is a process in which carbon dioxide gas is removed from the atmosphere and sequestered for long periods of time. Similarly, greenhouse gas removal (GGR) or negative greenhouse gas emissions is the removal of greenhouse gases (GHGs) from the atmosphere by deliberate human activities, i.e., in addition to the removal that would occur via natural carbon cycle or atmospheric chemistry processes. In the context of net zero greenhouse gas emissions targets, CDR is increasingly integrated into climate policy, as a new element of mitigation strategies. CDR and GGR methods are also known as negative emissions technologies (NET), and may be cheaper than preventing some agricultural greenhouse gas emissions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Zero-carbon city</span> City that has no carbon footprint

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Bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS) is the process of extracting bioenergy from biomass and capturing and storing the carbon, thereby removing it from the atmosphere. The carbon in the biomass comes from the greenhouse gas carbon dioxide (CO2) which is extracted from the atmosphere by the biomass when it grows. Energy is extracted in useful forms (electricity, heat, biofuels, etc.) as the biomass is utilized through combustion, fermentation, pyrolysis or other conversion methods. Some of the carbon in the biomass is converted to CO2 or biochar which can then be stored by geologic sequestration or land application, respectively, enabling carbon dioxide removal (CDR) and making BECCS a negative emissions technology (NET).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change feedback</span> Feedback related to climate change

Climate change feedbacks are important in the understanding of global warming because feedback processes amplify or diminish the effect of each climate forcing, and so play an important part in determining the climate sensitivity and future climate state. Feedback in general is the process in which changing one quantity changes a second quantity, and the change in the second quantity in turn changes the first. Positive feedback amplifies the change in the first quantity while negative feedback reduces it.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in Europe</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of Europe related to climate change

Climate change in Europe has resulted in an increase in temperature of 1.9 °C (2019) in Europe compared to pre-industrial levels. Europe's climate is getting warmer due to anthropogenic activity. According to international climate experts, global temperature rise should not exceed 2 °C to prevent the most dangerous consequences of climate change; without reduction in greenhouse gas emissions, this could happen before 2050. Climate change has implications for all regions of Europe, with the extent and nature of impacts varying across the continent.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Fire and carbon cycling in boreal forests</span>

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Carbon budget</span> Limit on carbon dioxide emission for a given climate impact

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Niklas Höhne</span> German researcher

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in India</span> Emissions, impacts and responses of India related to climate change

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This article documents notable events, research findings, effects, and responses related to global warming and climate change during the year 2021.

Joeri Rogelj is a Belgian climate scientist working on solutions to climate change. He explores how societies can transform towards sustainable futures. He is a Reader in Climate Science and Policy at the Centre for Environmental Policy (CEP) and Director of Research at the Grantham Institute – Climate Change and Environment, both at Imperial College London. He is also affiliated with the International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis. He is an author of several climate reports by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) and the United Nations Environment Programme (UNEP), and a member of the European Scientific Advisory Board for Climate Change.

References

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