Jeff Rubin (born August 24, 1954) is a Canadian economist and author. He is a former chief economist at CIBC World Markets and is currently a senior fellow at the Centre for International Governance Innovation.
Rubin had worked at CIBC World Markets and its predecessors since 1988, and served as chief economist from 1992 to 2009, when he resigned. [1]
Rubin completed his B.A. in Economics at the University of Toronto before graduating from McGill University with a Masters in Economics. He began working as an economist at the Ontario Government Treasury Department where he was responsible for projecting future interest rates.
In 1988, Rubin moved on to the brokerage firm Wood Gundy [2] which was taken over by CIBC and became first CIBC Wood Gundy and then CIBC World Markets. He has accurately predicted fluctuations in interest rates and the value of the Canadian dollar.[ citation needed ] In the early 1990s he came to prominence projecting a major decline in the Ontario real estate market.[ citation needed ] He was one of the first economists to accurately predict soaring oil prices in 2000 and is now a popular commentator on oil depletion and its economic repercussions.[ citation needed ] However, in 2008, when a barrel of oil was $135, Rubin predicted that the price will reach $225 by 2012. [3] This prediction turned out to be wrong with the price of oil crashing in 2009, which – despite a rebound from 2011 to 2014 – stayed relatively low until 2016.
Rubin writes a blog published every Wednesday for The Globe and Mail newspaper.[ citation needed ] The blog is also published in the Huffington Post.[ citation needed ] He is an avid fisherman and frequently uses fishing analogies in his writing. [4]
Rubin wrote the 2009 book Why Your World Is About to Get a Whole Lot Smaller: Oil and the End of Globalization ( ISBN 0-307-35751-1), which won the Canadian Business Book of the Year award. The book was also published with U.S. and U.K editions along with editions in French, Spanish, German, Portuguese, and Italian. A second Canadian edition was published in 2010. [5] [6] Jeff Rubin's second book, The End of Growth - but is that all bad? published by Random House ( ISBN 978-0-307-36090-8), was released in Canada in a hard cover edition on May 8, 2012. It follows up on the theme of how oil prices are changing the world. The End of Growth was released in a US edition on October 16, 2012, under the title "The Big Flatline - Oil and the No-Growth Economy" ( ISBN 978-0-230-34218-7). A third book published by Random House and titled "The Carbon Bubble - What Happens to us When it Bursts" was released in Canada on May 12, 2015. A fourth book published by Random House and titled "The Expendables - How the Middle Class Got Screwed By Globalization" was released in Canada on August 18, 2020.
The Limits to Growth is a 1972 report that discussed the possibility of exponential economic and population growth with finite supply of resources, studied by computer simulation. The study used the World3 computer model to simulate the consequence of interactions between the Earth and human systems. The model was based on the work of Jay Forrester of MIT, as described in his book World Dynamics.
The efficient-market hypothesis (EMH) is a hypothesis in financial economics that states that asset prices reflect all available information. A direct implication is that it is impossible to "beat the market" consistently on a risk-adjusted basis since market prices should only react to new information.
Business cycles are intervals of general expansion followed by recession in economic performance. The changes in economic activity that characterize business cycles have important implications for the welfare of the general population, government institutions, and private sector firms. There are numerous specific definitions of what constitutes a business cycle. The simplest and most naïve characterization comes from regarding recessions as 2 consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth. More satisfactory classifications are provided by, first including more economic indicators and second by looking for more informative data patterns than the ad hoc 2 quarter definition.
Eugene Francis "Gene" Fama is an American economist, best known for his empirical work on portfolio theory, asset pricing, and the efficient-market hypothesis.
The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce is a Canadian multinational banking and financial services corporation headquartered at CIBC Square in the Financial District of Toronto, Ontario. The Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce was formed through the 1961 merger of the Canadian Bank of Commerce and the Imperial Bank of Canada, in the largest merger between chartered banks in Canadian history. It is one of two "Big Five" banks founded in Toronto, the other being the Toronto-Dominion Bank.
Julian Lincoln Simon was an American economist. He was a professor of business administration at the University of Maryland and a Senior Fellow at the Cato Institute at the time of his death, after previously serving as a longtime economics and business professor at the University of Illinois at Urbana-Champaign.
The Hubbert peak theory says that for any given geographical area, from an individual oil-producing region to the planet as a whole, the rate of petroleum production tends to follow a bell-shaped curve. It is one of the primary theories on peak oil.
Petrocurrency is a word used with three distinct meanings, often confused:
Wood Gundy Inc. was a leading Canadian stock brokerage and investment banking firm. Founded in 1905, it was acquired by the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce in 1988 as it attempted to build an investment banking business. The Wood Gundy name was used extensively by the bank's investment banking arm, which was known as CIBC Wood Gundy until 1997. Today, CIBC's investment banking business is known as CIBC World Markets, and the name CIBC Wood Gundy is used as the brand for the bank's retail brokerage business.
Nouriel Roubini is a Turkish-born Iranian-American economic consultant, economist, and writer. He is a Professor Emeritus since 2021 at the Stern School of Business of New York University.
CIBC Capital Markets is the investment banking subsidiary of the Canadian Imperial Bank of Commerce. The firm operates as an investment bank both in Canadian and global equity and debt capital markets. The firm provides a variety of financial services including equity and debt capital market products, mergers and acquisitions, global markets, merchant banking, and other investment banking advisory services.
From the mid-1980s to September 2003, the inflation-adjusted price of a barrel of crude oil on NYMEX was generally under US$25/barrel in 2008 dollars. During 2003, the price rose above $30, reached $60 by 11 August 2005, and peaked at $147.30 in July 2008. Commentators attributed these price increases to many factors, including Middle East tension, soaring demand from China, the falling value of the U.S. dollar, reports showing a decline in petroleum reserves, worries over peak oil, and financial speculation.
Daniel Howard Yergin is an American author and consultant within the energy and economic sectors. Yergin is vice chairman of S&P Global. He was formerly vice chairman of IHS Markit, which merged with S&P in 2022. He founded Cambridge Energy Research Associates, which IHS Markit acquired in 2004. He has authored or co-authored several books on energy and world economics, including the Pulitzer Prize–winning The Prize: The Epic Quest for Oil, Money, and Power, (1991) The Quest: Energy, Security, and the Remaking of the Modern World (2011), and The New Map: Energy, Climate, and the Clash of Nations (2020).
BRIC is a term describing the foreign investment strategies grouping acronym that stands for Brazil, Russia, India, and China. The separate BRICS organisation would go on to become a political and economic organization largely based on such grouping.
Todd G. Buchholz is an American economist, author, inventor, and business consultant. He served as Director of Economic Policy under George H. W. Bush and as managing director of Tiger Management. Buchholz regularly contributes commentaries on political economy, financial markets, business and culture to media outlets such as The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, and The Washington Post, as well as major television networks. In his work, Buchholz has devised a number of economic theories and policy proposals and frequently makes forecasts about major economic turns and developments.
Robert James Shiller is an American economist, academic, and author. As of 2022, he served as a Sterling Professor of Economics at Yale University and is a fellow at the Yale School of Management's International Center for Finance. Shiller has been a research associate of the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) since 1980, was vice president of the American Economic Association in 2005, its president-elect for 2016, and president of the Eastern Economic Association for 2006–2007. He is also the co‑founder and chief economist of the investment management firm MacroMarkets LLC.
Peak oil is the point at which oil production, sometimes including unconventional oil sources, hits its maximum. Predicting the timing of peak oil involves estimation of future production from existing oil fields as well as future discoveries. The most influential production model is Hubbert peak theory, first proposed in the 1950s. The effect of peak oil on the world economy remains controversial.
Stephen Leeb is a money manager and investment adviser. For more than 45 years he has been guiding investors via newsletters, books, blogs, and appearances on financial news networks including CNN, Fox News, NPR and Bloomberg TV.
Carbon Shift: How Peak Oil and the Climate Crisis Will Change Canada is a 2009 non-fiction book edited by Thomas Homer-Dixon and Nick Garrison that collects six essays that discusses the issues of peak oil and climate change. The book was first published in hardcover by Random House of Canada in 2009 under the title Carbon Shift: How the Twin Crises of Oil Depletion and Climate Change Will Define the Future, and became a national bestseller. In 2010, the paperback was published by Vintage Canada, a division of Random House Canada, the sub-title then changing to How Peak Oil and the Climate Crisis Will Change Canada .
Jeff Currie is an economist and the former Global Head of Commodities Research in the Global Investment Research Division at Goldman Sachs. He rose to prominence during the 2000s by forecasting the commodity super-cycle and oil spiking above $100 a barrel. He has been labelled a "maverick" for making bold calls that 'pack a punch'. During the 2010s he was known for forecasting oil prices to stay 'lower for longer' to end the shale supply glut, whilst in more recent times his stance has shifted from bearish to considerably bullish, calling for a new commodities "supercycle" in late 2020 driven by underinvestment in supply, a process he has dubbed "the revenge of the old economy."