Lavagnon Ika | |
---|---|
Born | |
Citizenship | Canadian and Beninese |
Occupation(s) | Project management scientist, academic and author |
Academic background | |
Education | Bachelor of Business Administration M.Sc., Project Management Ph.D., Business Administration |
Alma mater | Institut National d'Économie Université du Québec à Hull Université du Québec à Montréal |
Thesis | The key success factors for international development projects (2011) |
Academic work | |
Institutions | University of Ottawa University of Pretoria |
Lavagnon Ika is a Benin-born,Canadian project management scientist,academic,thought leader,and author. He is professor of Project Management,the founding director of the Major Projects Observatory,as well as the program director of the MSc in Management at the Telfer School of Management at the University of Ottawa,and an Extraordinary Professor at the University of Pretoria. [1]
Ika is most known for his contribution to the academic and policy debate on why large-scale projects experience cost overruns and benefit shortfalls worldwide,and how to make them work and deliver more success in the short and long terms. He is also known for his research on project success and for his contributions to research on managing global development projects,those initiatives that seek to address the challenges of sustainable and equitable poverty reduction and improvement of living standards in the Global South. In particular,he has sought to strengthen project management theory and practice in Africa. His work focuses on project management,primarily on project management and strategy implementation,major infrastructure delivery,international development,grand challenges,project behavior,and project performance. He twice received the Global Research Award from the International Project Management Association (IPMA). [2] [3] He is the coauthor of the 2024 Project Management Institute (PMI) award-winning book titled Managing Fuzzy Projects in 3D:A Proven,Multi-Faceted Blueprint for Overseeing Complex Projects. [4] [5] He is also editor of The Cambridge University Handbook of Project Behavior,a compendium of chapters by project scholars over why large-scale projects take complex out-turns during their complicated life and what can be done about it.
Ika completed a Bachelor of Business Administration in 1997 from the Institut National d'Économie in Benin. In 1998,he moved to Canada for his MSc in Project Management. He completed his Master of Science in Project Management from Universitédu Québec àHull in 2001. He obtained his Ph.D. in Business Administration in 2011 from Universitédu Québec àMontréal,through a joint doctoral program with McGill,Concordia,and HEC Montréal. His thesis focused on the critical success factors of World-Bank funded projects. [1]
Ika began his academic career in 2001 as a part-time professor at Universitédu Québec,where he eventually became associate professor. Concurrently,he joined the Telfer School of Management at the University of Ottawa as assistant professor,turning associate professor in 2015 and reaching the rank of full professor of Project Management in 2019. In 2020,he became the founding Director of the Major Projects Observatory. [1]
In 2020,Ika was appointed as a World Bank Fellow,but the fellowship was later suspended due to COVID-19. In 2022,Ika was named the program director of both the MSc in Management and Health Systems Programs at the University of Ottawa. Additionally,since 2023,he has been an Extraordinary Professor at the University of Pretoria. [1]
Ika provided guidance for the World Bank as external advisory panel member on their Results and Performance of the World Bank Group 2023 and for the Project Management Institute (PMI) in 2024 as a lead scholar on how to measure project success [6]
Ika's project management research is divided into two main streams.
The first stream investigates the prevalence of cost overruns and benefit shortfalls in the West (e.g.,Canada and USA),assessing whether biases (e.g.,over-optimism) or errors (e.g.,poor management) played a more significant role. The stream builds on the work of former Oxford Professor Bent Flyvbjerg,Daniel Kahneman,and Albert Hirschman. [7] This research explores the practical implications of Daniel Kahneman's Planning Fallacy versus Albert Hirschman's Hiding Hand principle, [8] particularly during significant infrastructure investments for post-COVID-19 economic recovery. The Planning Fallacy,the tendency to over-promise and under-deliver,suggested that forecasts of costs and benefits are unrealistically close to best-case scenarios and that many projects should never have been started. The Hiding Hand proposed that if promoters had known the real costs and benefits of many projects,they would not have been done. He critiqued Bent Flyvbjerg's dismissal of Hirschman's Hiding Hand principle,arguing that Flyvbjerg's narrow focus on cost-benefit analysis overlooked broader project impacts and problem-solving aspects,and thus that ignorance may be good for projects. He presented evidence that the Hiding Hand was more prevalent in project successes than Flyvbjerg acknowledged. [9] Furthermore,he also demonstrated that 60% of projects are prone to optimism bias. [10]
Furthermore,Ika examined the causes of cost overruns in transport construction projects by analyzing contextual factors such as program management,quality,safety,design,and management practices,recommending alternative procurement strategies to address these issues. [11] He also explored the multidimensional nature of project success,addressing business case benefits delivery,diverse stakeholder perceptions,sustainability concerns,and proposed a four-dimensional model to assess and understand project outcomes over time. [12]
Ika's first stream of research culminated with a new theory of project behavior and performance,coined "The Fifth Hand",which asserted that biases and errors combined to exact a heavy toll on projects. Following the work of Gerd Gigerenzer,the longtime director of the Max Planck Institute for Human Development and critic of Daniel Kahneman, [13] he argued that the Planning Fallacy,along with its remedy "bias uplifts" such as Reference Class Forecasting (RCF),might work under risk,not uncertainty,where probability calculus falls short. He recommended instead,the use of heuristics and "best fit" practices. Such heuristics or rules of thumb included "Your biggest risk and asset is you" and "Plan your work and work your plan,but be ready for a few surprises down the road". [4] He also argued that the Cassandras or the over-pessimistic and the Pollyannas or the over-optimistic promoters of projects were both right and wrong and called on promoters to be Januses,who are much more pragmatic characters in the world of projects. [14] Ika’s work (in collaboration with Peter Love and Jeffrey Pinto) on these challenges has led to IPMA's 2022 Research Award. [15]
In his second research stream,Ika explored the factors contributing to the success and failure of global development projects,with a particular focus on Africa. He suggested that projects in Africa often fall into four traps:the one-size-fits-all technical trap,the accountability-for-results trap,the lack-of-project-management-capacity trap,and the cultural trap. [16] He investigated the importance of contextual understanding,the pitfalls of results-based management (RBM),and the complexities of scaling up and replicating successful projects across different locations to enhance the positive impact on beneficiaries,especially the poor and marginalized. [17] Focusing on the theory of capacity building project delivery,his 2017 research examined structural,institutional,and managerial conditions for the success of international development projects in different contexts,proposing that high levels of multi-stakeholder commitment,collaboration,alignment,and adaptation were crucial. [18] In related research,his 2022 study analyzed the evolution of the concept of "capacity building" through a literature review,suggesting a "new pragmatism" framework that emphasized context sensitivity,methodological pluralism,and collaborative knowledge creation for more effective public administration practices. [19]
Looking into World-Bank funded projects,Ika also showed that 60% of them are prone to optimism bias,which affects up to 20% of their performance. [20] His investigation of how beneficiary engagement levels influenced short and long-term success in global development projects found that both beneficiary involvement and participation positively influenced project outcomes. It also emphasized the importance of tailored approaches and factors like beneficiary trust in project governance for maximizing impact,especially in low- and middle-income countries,notably in Africa. [21] Additionally,this second stream led to a "project management school" in global development,which explored how project activities and processes are really carried out. [20]
Ika coined the term grand challenge projects,which represented projects that sought to tackle grand challenges or those complex problems the world faced (e.g.,climate change,global pandemics,and unsustainable development). He suggested that grand challenges and project management were strange bedfellows,but a more adaptive,agile,collaborative,and best-fit project management approach,where strategic logic,heuristics,intuition,and agile experimentation prevailed,could work,considering the fuzziness that often characterized grand challenges. He further added that a portfolio,program,network,or national development plan approach was the best shot at tackling grand challenges sustainably. [22]
Ika's work in this stream has led to international recognition including fellowships visiting professor postings in many African universities and a title of Extraordinary Professor at the University of Pretoria. [23]
Project management is the process of supervising the work of a team to achieve all project goals within the given constraints. This information is usually described in project documentation,created at the beginning of the development process. The primary constraints are scope,time and budget. The secondary challenge is to optimize the allocation of necessary inputs and apply them to meet predefined objectives.
In economics and business decision-making,a sunk cost is a cost that has already been incurred and cannot be recovered. Sunk costs are contrasted with prospective costs,which are future costs that may be avoided if action is taken. In other words,a sunk cost is a sum paid in the past that is no longer relevant to decisions about the future. Even though economists argue that sunk costs are no longer relevant to future rational decision-making,people in everyday life often take previous expenditures in situations,such as repairing a car or house,into their future decisions regarding those properties.
Daniel Kahneman was an Israeli-American psychologist best known for his work on the psychology of judgment and decision-making as well as behavioral economics,for which he was awarded the 2002 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences together with Vernon L. Smith. Kahneman's published empirical findings challenge the assumption of human rationality prevailing in modern economic theory. Kahneman became known as the "grandfather of behavioral economics."
Decision theory or the theory of rational choice is a branch of probability,economics,and analytic philosophy that uses the tools of expected utility and probability to model how individuals should behave rationally under uncertainty. It differs from the cognitive and behavioral sciences in that it is prescriptive and concerned with identifying optimal decisions for a rational agent,rather than describing how people really do make decisions. Despite this,the field is important to the study of real human behavior by social scientists,as it lays the foundations for the rational agent models used to mathematically model and analyze individuals in fields such as sociology,economics,criminology,cognitive science,and political science.
Managerial economics is a branch of economics involving the application of economic methods in the organizational decision-making process. Economics is the study of the production,distribution,and consumption of goods and services. Managerial economics involves the use of economic theories and principles to make decisions regarding the allocation of scarce resources. It guides managers in making decisions relating to the company's customers,competitors,suppliers,and internal operations.
Thomas Dashiff Gilovich is an American psychologist who is the Irene Blecker Rosenfeld Professor of Psychology at Cornell University. He has conducted research in social psychology,decision making,and behavioral economics,and has written popular books on these subjects. Gilovich has collaborated with Daniel Kahneman,Richard Nisbett,Lee Ross and Amos Tversky. His articles in peer-reviewed journals on subjects such as cognitive biases have been widely cited. In addition,Gilovich has been quoted in the media on subjects ranging from the effect of purchases on happiness to people's most common regrets,to perceptions of people and social groups. Gilovich is a fellow of the Committee for Skeptical Inquiry.
The planning fallacy is a phenomenon in which predictions about how much time will be needed to complete a future task display an optimism bias and underestimate the time needed. This phenomenon sometimes occurs regardless of the individual's knowledge that past tasks of a similar nature have taken longer to complete than generally planned. The bias affects predictions only about one's own tasks. On the other hand,when outside observers predict task completion times,they tend to exhibit a pessimistic bias,overestimating the time needed. The planning fallacy involves estimates of task completion times more optimistic than those encountered in similar projects in the past.
Gerd Gigerenzer is a German psychologist who has studied the use of bounded rationality and heuristics in decision making. Gigerenzer is director emeritus of the Center for Adaptive Behavior and Cognition (ABC) at the Max Planck Institute for Human Development,Berlin,director of the Harding Center for Risk Literacy,University of Potsdam,and vice president of the European Research Council (ERC).
A megaproject is an extremely large-scale construction and investment project. A more general definition is "Megaprojects are temporary endeavours characterised by:large investment commitment,vast complexity,and long-lasting impact on the economy,the environment,and society".
A cost overrun,also known as a cost increase or budget overrun,involves unexpected incurred costs. When these costs are in excess of budgeted amounts due to a value engineering underestimation of the actual cost during budgeting,they are known by these terms.
Reference class forecasting or comparison class forecasting is a method of predicting the future by looking at similar past situations and their outcomes. The theories behind reference class forecasting were developed by Daniel Kahneman and Amos Tversky. The theoretical work helped Kahneman win the Nobel Prize in Economics.
Fred Glover is Chief Scientific Officer of Entanglement,Inc.,USA,in charge of algorithmic design and strategic planning for applications of combinatorial optimization in quantum computing. He also holds the title of Distinguished University Professor,Emeritus,at the University of Colorado,Boulder,associated with the College of Engineering and Applied Science and the Leeds School of Business. He is known for his innovations in the area of metaheuristics including the computer-based optimization methodology of Tabu search an adaptive memory programming algorithm for mathematical optimization,and the associated evolutionary Scatter Search and Path Relinking algorithms.
Heuristics is the process by which humans use mental shortcuts to arrive at decisions. Heuristics are simple strategies that humans,animals,organizations,and even machines use to quickly form judgments,make decisions,and find solutions to complex problems. Often this involves focusing on the most relevant aspects of a problem or situation to formulate a solution. While heuristic processes are used to find the answers and solutions that are most likely to work or be correct,they are not always right or the most accurate. Judgments and decisions based on heuristics are simply good enough to satisfy a pressing need in situations of uncertainty,where information is incomplete. In that sense they can differ from answers given by logic and probability.
Benefits realization management (BRM),also benefits management,benefits realisation or project benefits management,is a project management methodology,often visual,addressing how time and resources are invested into making desirable changes. BRM is used to manage the investment by organizations in procurement,projects,programmes and portfolios,and has been shown to increase project success across different countries and industries.
Megaprojects and Risk:An Anatomy of Ambition is a 2003 book by Bent Flyvbjerg,Nils Bruzelius,and Werner Rothengatter,published by Cambridge University Press.
The hiding hand principle is a theory that offers a framework to examine how ignorance intersects with rational choice to undertake a project;the intersection is seen to provoke creative success over the obstacles through the deduction that it is too late to abandon the project. The term was coined by economist Albert O. Hirschman.
Roland Gareis is an Austrian economist,former Professor of Project Management at the Vienna University of Economics and Business,and consultant. He is known for his work on the theory and practice of project management,and is considered co-founder of the "Management by projects" approach.
Jonas Söderlund is a Swedish organizational theorist and Professor in the Department of Leadership and Organizational Behavior at the BI Norwegian Business School,and author. He is known for his work in the fields of human resource management,project management.
Rajat K Baisya is an Indian management professor,author,and researcher. He was formerly Professor &Dean of Dept of Management Education,IIT Delhi. He was awarded Canada Gairdner International Award for the year 1974. He was also awarded Dr J.S.Pruthi Award for the year 2001 for significant contribution to the food industry.
Ofer Zwikael is an Australian management scientist,academic,and author. He is a professor in the Australian National University's Research School of Management.