New Brunswick general election, 1999

New Brunswick general election, 1999
	← outgoing members members →
55 seats of the Legislative Assembly of New Brunswick ; 28 seats were needed for a majority
Turnout	75.59% [1]
	Map of New Brunswick's ridings coloured in based on the winning parties and their popular vote
Premier before election; Camille Thériault ; Liberal	Premier-designate; Bernard Lord ; Progressive Conservative

Last updated April 27, 2019

Rendition of party representation in the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly decided by this election.
Progressive Conservatives (44)
Liberals (10)
New Democrats (1) Nb-seating-1999.png — Rendition of party representation in the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly decided by this election.
  Progressive Conservatives (44)
  Liberals (10)
  New Democrats (1)

The 34th New Brunswick general election was held on June 7, 1999, to elect 55 members to the 54th New Brunswick Legislative Assembly, the governing house of the province of New Brunswick, Canada.

The provinces and territories of Canada are sub-national governments within the geographical areas of Canada under the authority of the Canadian Constitution. In the 1867 Canadian Confederation, three provinces of British North America—New Brunswick, Nova Scotia, and the Province of Canada —were united to form a federated colony, becoming a sovereign nation in the next century. Over its history, Canada's international borders have changed several times, and the country has grown from the original four provinces to the current ten provinces and three territories. Together, the provinces and territories make up the world's second-largest country by area.

New Brunswick is one of four Atlantic provinces on the east coast of Canada. According to the Constitution of Canada, New Brunswick is the only bilingual province. About two thirds of the population declare themselves anglophones and a third francophones. One third of the population describes themselves as bilingual. Atypically for Canada, only about half of the population lives in urban areas, mostly in Greater Moncton, Greater Saint John and the capital Fredericton.

Campaign

The election marked the debut of both Camille Thériault and Bernard Lord as leaders of the Liberals and Progressive Conservatives respectively. It was Elizabeth Weir's third general election as leader of the New Democratic Party.

Camille Henri Thériault served as the 29th Premier of the Canadian province of New Brunswick.

Bernard Lord, ONB, QC, is a Canadian lawyer, business executive and former politician. He served as the 30th Premier of New Brunswick from 1999 to 2006. Lord was appointed as board chair of Ontario Power Generation in 2014.

The New Brunswick Liberal Association, more popularly known as the New Brunswick Liberal Party or Liberal Party of New Brunswick, is one of the two major provincial political parties in New Brunswick, Canada. The party descended from both the Confederation Party and the Anti-Confederation Party whose members split into left-wing and right-wing groups following the creation of Canada as a nation in 1867.

Thériault's Liberals were widely expected to win a fourth majority government from the outset of the campaign, and opinion polls showed them leading by double but Lord's Tories were able to capitalize on the issue of highway tolls and use it to portray the Liberals as arrogant. Lord made an effective wedge issue on tolls, saying they were unfair to people who lived near the toll booths and had to drive through them daily and also as an example of arrogance and uncaring from the Liberals. Lord then pledged to implement 20 of his key promises in his first 200 days in office, he styled this as "200 Days of Change", a message which was modelled on the Contract with America and the Common Sense Revolution, and it resonated with voters. Another disadvantage for the Liberals was the loss of former premier Frank McKenna, who had retired after 10 years in office in 1997. McKenna was very popular and Thériault had difficulty shaking negative comparisons between himself and his predecessor.

An opinion poll, often simply referred to as a poll or a survey, is a human research survey of public opinion from a particular sample. Opinion polls are usually designed to represent the opinions of a population by conducting a series of questions and then extrapolating generalities in ratio or within confidence intervals.

A wedge issue is a political or social issue, often of a controversial or divisive nature, which splits apart a demographic or population group. Wedge issues can be advertised or publicly aired in an attempt to strengthen the unity of a population, with the goal of enticing polarized individuals to give support to an opponent or to withdraw their support entirely out of disillusionment. The use of wedge issues gives rise to wedge politics. Wedge issues are also known as hot button or third rail issues.

The Contract with America was a document released by the United States Republican Party during the 1994 Congressional election campaign. Written by Newt Gingrich and Dick Armey, and in part using text from former President Ronald Reagan's 1985 State of the Union Address, the Contract detailed the actions the Republicans promised to take if they became the majority party in the United States House of Representatives for the first time in 40 years. Many of the Contract's policy ideas originated at The Heritage Foundation, a conservative think tank.

Following a huge surge in the final weeks of the campaign, Lord became Premier with his party winning its largest majority in the history of New Brunswick. Lord's tories also won the majority of Acadian seats, something the PC Party in New Brunswick had struggled to do in the past.

Premier of New Brunswick first minister for the Canadian province of New Brunswick

The Premier of New Brunswick is the first minister for the Canadian province of New Brunswick. They are the province's head of government and de facto chief executive.

Lord's win was 44 of 55 seats, at 80% a huge majority, was viewed as remarkable by all parties. Thériault, who came off in the campaign as cold and uncharismatic, made what pundits thought was his best speech of the campaign on election night when he said "the people of New Brunswick have spoken, and the people of New Brunswick are never wrong". However, Lord's massive victory caused a domino effect which resulted in the defeat of many Liberals who had been viewed by pundits as undefeatable.

A majority government refers to one or multiple governing parties that hold an absolute majority of seats in legislature. This is as opposed to a minority government, where the largest party in a legislature only has a plurality of seats.

A domino effect or chain reaction is the cumulative effect produced when one event sets off a chain of similar events. The term is best known as a mechanical effect and is used as an analogy to a falling row of dominoes. It typically refers to a linked sequence of events where the time between successive events is relatively small. It can be used literally or metaphorically. The term domino effect is used both to imply that an event is inevitable or highly likely, and conversely to imply that an event is impossible or highly unlikely.

Summary of results

Party		Party Leader	# of candidates	Seats				Popular Vote
Party		Party Leader	# of candidates	1995	Dissolution	Elected	% Change	#	%	Change
	Progressive Conservative	Bernard Lord	55	6	9	44	+289%	209,008	53.0%	+22.1%
	Liberal	Camille Theriault	55	48	45	10	-77%	146,934	37.3%	-14.3%
	New Democratic	Elizabeth Weir	55	1	1	1	-	34,526	8.8%	-0.9%
	Confederation of Regions	Jim Webb	18	-	-	-	-	2,807	0.7%	-6.4%
	Natural Law	Christopher Collrin	9	-	-	-	-	527	0.1%	-0.2%
	Independents	n/a	4	-	-	-	-	435	0.1%	-0.3%
Total			196	55	55	55	-	394,237	100%	+1.2%

Narrow wins and loses

A lot of Liberals, many high profile, lost their seats by very narrow margins while some barely survived. Below is a list of the 14 ridings (over a quarter of all districts) decided by less than 10%. Incumbent Liberal cabinet ministers are in bold, other incumbents are in italics.

Riding			Margin
Dieppe-Memramcook	Cy LeBlanc	Greg O'Donnell	4.4%
Fredericton North	D. Peter Forbes	Brad Woodside	4.4%
Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak	Eric MacKenzie	Greg Byrne	4.1%
Fundy Isles	Eric Allaby	Ed Brine	2.2%
Grand Falls Region	Jean-Guy Laforest	Marcel Deschênes	5.8%
Grand Lake	David Jordan	Doug Tyler	6.9%
Kent South	Camille Thériault	Jean-Noel Allain	7.4%
Nepisiguit	Joel Bernard	Alban Landry	4.7%
Nigadoo-Chaleur	Roland Haché	Hermel Vienneau	7.5%
Restigouche West	Benoit Cyr	Jean-Paul Savoie	3.7%
Rogersville-Kouchibouguac	Rose-May Poirier	Maurice Richard	1.8%
Saint John Champlain	Carole Keddy	Roly MacIntyre	2.2%
Victoria-Tobique	Larry Kennedy	Carman Pirie	5.8%
Western Charlotte	Tony Huntjens	Peter Heelis	6.1%

Candidates

Party leaders and cabinet ministers are denoted in bold.

Northern New Brunswick

Electoral District					Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Other	Incumbent
1. Restigouche West	Jean-Paul Savoie 3,328	Benoît Cyr 3,592	Rose Duguay 255		Jean-Paul Savoie
2. Campbellton	Edmond Blanchard 4,321	Pierre F. Dubé 2,569	Johanne Parent 295		Edmond Blanchard
3. Dalhousie-Restigouche East	Carolle de Ste. Croix 2,830	Dennis Furlong 5,148	Joel William Hickey 190	Francine Richard (NLP) withdrawn	Carolle de Ste. Croix
4. Nigadoo-Chaleur	Roland Haché 3,435	Hermel Vienneau 2,862	Raoul Charest 1,244	Gilles Godin (NLP) 106	Albert Doucet
5. Bathurst	Marcelle Mersereau 3,418	Bob Stairs 2,427	Antoine Duguay 453		Marcelle Mersereau
6. Nepisiguit	Alban Landry 2,227	Joel Bernard 2,534	Gilles Halley 1,824		Alban Landry
7. Caraquet	Bernard Theriault 4,194	Gaston Moore 3,369	Denis Doiron 596		Bernard Theriault
8. Lamèque-Shippagan-Miscou	Jean-Camille DeGrâce 2,563	Paul Robichaud 5,910	Calixte Chaisson 368		Jean-Camille DeGrâce
9. Centre-Péninsule	Denis Landry 2,097	Louis-Philippe McGraw 3,045	Roger Duguay 955		Denis Landry
10. Tracadie-Sheila	Serge Rousselle 2,926	Elvy Robichaud 5,453	Claudette Duguay 285		Elvy Robichaud

Eastern New Brunswick

Electoral District					Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Other	Incumbent
11. Miramichi Bay	Danny Gay 3,066	Réjean Savoie 4,014	Donald D. Doucet 365		Danny Gay
12. Miramichi-Bay du Vin	James Doyle 3,076	Michael Malley 5,393	John Gagnon 147		James Doyle
13. Miramichi Centre	John McKay 2,975	Kim Jardine 4,076	Terry Mullin 853		John McKay
14. Southwest Miramichi	Reg MacDonald 2,850	Norman Betts 4,019	Terry Carter 254		Reg MacDonald
15. Rogersville-Kouchibouguac	Maurice Richard 2,700	Rose-May Poirier 2,820	Maria Daigle 1,197		Kenneth Johnson
16. Kent	Shawn Graham 3,264	Valmond Daigle 2,471	Charles Richard 402	J.R. Beers (Ind) 103	Shawn Graham
17. Kent South	Camille Thériault 4,546	Jean-Noël Allain 3,838	Collette Doucette 1,171		Camille Thériault
18. Shediac-Cap-Pélé	Bernard Richard 5,422	Odette Babineau 3,240	Anne Marie Dupuis 633		Bernard Richard

Southeastern New Brunswick

Electoral District					Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Other	Incumbent
19. Tantramar	Kirk W. Meldrum 925	Peter Mesheau 3,311	Heather Patterson 990	Frank Comeau (Ind) 47	Peter Mesheau
20. Dieppe-Memramcook	Greg O'Donnell 4,738	Cy LeBlanc 5,206	Marc LeBel 754		Greg O'Donnell
21. Moncton East	Kevin John Fram 2,046	Bernard Lord 5,248	Marc Robar 542	Laurent Maltais (NLP) 59	Bernard Lord
22. Moncton South	James E. Lockyer 2,710	Joan MacAlpine 3,143	Theresa Sullivan 687		James E. Lockyer
23. Moncton North	Gene Devereux 2,304	René Landry 3,776	Nancy Hartling 1049	John Gallant (CoR) 103	Gene Devereux
24. Moncton Crescent	Kenneth R. MacLeod 2,233	John Betts 4,825	Carl Fowler 699	Albert H. Wood (CoR) 85	Kenneth R. MacLeod
25. Petitcodiac	Gary Stewart Armstrong 1,171	Wally Stiles 4,284	Blair McInnis 447	Donald R. Alward (CoR) 278	Hollis Steeves
26. Riverview	Al J. Kavanaugh 2,151	Pat Crossman 4,439	Brad Smith 888	Shane Harvey (CoR) 137 Jamie Ed Borden (Ind) 81	Al J. Kavanaugh
27. Albert	Harry Doyle 2,065	Wayne Steeves 3,633	Myrna Geldart 529	Dean Ryder (CoR) 136	Harry Doyle
28. Kings East	LeRoy Armstrong 2,420	Doug Cosman 4,310	Jessica Coleman 354	Eldon MacKay (CoR) 109	LeRoy Armstrong

Greater Saint John & Fundy Coast

Electoral District					Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Other	Incumbent
29. Hampton-Belleisle	Georgie Day 2,628	Bev Harrison 4,551	Jocelyne Comeau 769		Georgie Day
30. Kennebecasis	Peter LeBlanc 2,388	Brenda Fowlie 4,070	Albert Charles Joseph Comeau 939	Greg Boyle (CoR) 192	Peter LeBlanc
31. Saint John-Fundy	Stuart Jamieson 1,933	Rodney Weston 3,473	Robert E. Holmes-Lauder 494	David Lytle (CoR) 115	Stuart Jamieson
32. Saint John-Kings	Zita Longobardi 1,752	Margaret-Ann Blaney 4,605	Ken Wilcox 664		Laureen Jarrett
33. Saint John Champlain	Roly MacIntyre 1,949	Carole Keddy 2,073	Dr. Paula C. Tippett 1,597	Dolores H. Cook (CoR) 98 Jeanne Geldart (NLP) 36	Roly MacIntyre
34. Saint John Harbour	Mark Thomas McNulty 1,347	Tim Clarke 1,349	Elizabeth Weir 2,398	Thomas Mitchell (NLP) 54	Elizabeth Weir
35. Saint John Portland	Leo McAdam 1,668	Trevor Holder 3,773	Pam F. Coates 844	Miville Couture (NLP) 45	Leo McAdam
36. Saint John Lancaster	Jane Barry 2,190	Norm McFarlane 3,999	Bill Farren 945	Jim Webb (CoR) 154 Christopher B. Collrin (NLP) 96	Jane Barry
37. Grand Bay-Westfield	Grace Losier 1,433	Milt Sherwood 3,546	Percy Ward 490	Colby Fraser (CoR) 240	Milt Sherwood
38. Charlotte	Sheldon Lee 3,263	Sharon Tucker 2,071	Eugene A. Dugas 299		Sheldon Lee
39. Fundy Isles	Eric Allaby 1,248	Ed Brine 1,192	Bill Barteau 66		Eric Allaby
40. Western Charlotte	Peter Heelis 3,071	Tony Huntjens 3,490	Andrew Gordon Graham 283		Ann Breault

Greater Fredericton

Electoral District					Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Other	Incumbent
41. Oromocto-Gagetown	Ron Lindala 2,059	Jody Carr 4,372	Terry John Hovey 283	Paul Pye (CoR) 151	Vaughn Blaney
42. Grand Lake	Doug Tyler 3,245	David Charles Jordan 3,769	Phyllis MacLean 384	Murray C. Barton (CoR) 223	Doug Tyler
43. Fredericton North	Brad Woodside 3,698	D. Peter Forbes 4,081	Todd Joseph Tingley 632	Ronald Bubar (CoR) 203 William Parker (NLP) 34	Jim Wilson
44. Fredericton-Fort Nashwaak	Greg Byrne 2,685	Eric MacKenzie 2,949	Pat A. Kennedy 715	David Alexander Brown (CoR) 96 Andie Haché (NLP) 31	Greg Byrne
45. Fredericton South	Lorraine Siliphant 2,510	Brad Green 4,070	Myrna Gunter 1,409	Michael McKay (NLP) 66	Brad Green
46. New Maryland	Joan Kingston 3,077	Keith Ashfield 4,223	Carol E. Moore 441	George Rennick (CoR) 182	Joan Kingston
47. York	John Flynn 3,783	Don Kinney 4,332	Josh Johnson 449	Malcolm MacNeil (CoR) 88	John Flynn
48. Mactaquac	David Olmstead 2,385	Kirk MacDonald 4,405	Sandra Burtt 463	Wilmot F. Ross (CoR) 217	David Olmstead

Upper Saint John River Valley

Electoral District					Incumbent
Electoral District	Liberal	PC	NDP	Other	Incumbent
49. Woodstock	James W. Andrew 1,989	David Alward 5,354	Sheila Moore 242		Bruce Atherton Smith
50. Carleton	David Harvey 3,240	Dale Graham 4,561	Marilyn Young 176		Dale Graham
51. Victoria-Tobique	Larry Kennedy 3,127	Carmen Cecil Pirie 2,768	Amy Dunham 144	Carter Charles Edgar (Ind) 204	Larry Kennedy
52. Grand Falls Region	Marcel Deschênes 3,094	Jean-Guy Laforest 3,493	Jean-Paul Gallant 265		Paul Duffie
53. Madawaska-la-Vallée	Huguette Plourde 1,798	Percy Mockler 4,367	Jean-Charles Lombard 189		Percy Mockler
54. Edmundston	Roland Beaulieu 2,173	Madeleine Dubé 3,567	Michael Gagné 366		Bernard Valcourt
55. Madawaska-les-Lacs	Georges Corriveau 2,138	Jeannot Volpé 4,289	Marie-Pierre Valay-Nadeau 154		Jeannot Volpé

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References

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