On the applied side, Hjort demonstrated in 1994 that there is a small but Olympically significant difference between inner-lane and outer-lane starts for 500m speedskating races, after a systematic analysis of world sprint championships data, implying that the Olympic 500m event has been unfair since 1924. As a result of Hjort's work and initiative, the International Skating Union and the International Olympic Committee changed the rules; since Nagano 1998 onwards, the sprint skaters race the 500m twice, with one start in inner lane and one start in the outer lane. He has also been a regular contributor to the Speedskating World magazine. Other applied work has involved analysis of literary texts. In the famous case of potential plagiarism where Aleksandr Solzhenitsyn and others accused Mikhail Sholokhov of not being the rightful author of And Quiet Flows the Don, Hjort's analysis gives full support to Sholokhov. Since 2020, Hjort and fellow statisticians have collaborated with peace-and-conflict and political science researchers, from Peace Research Institute Oslo and elsewhere, to study the quantitative mechanics of conflicts, analyse and predict conflict levels, etc.
Hjort's other interests include Disney comics (where he has given public lectures and written scholarly articles for various publishers), chamber music and choir singing (taking part in more than ten CD recordings with Grex Vocalis), gøbbing (exchanging ideas with members of a think tank), and cross-country skiing. He has edited two books with the works of notable Disney comics artist Don Rosa.
Interview on frequentist model averaging Essential Science Indicators interview regarding "this month's fast breaking paper in the field of Mathematics", August 2005
Bayesian probability is an interpretation of the concept of probability, in which, instead of frequency or propensity of some phenomenon, probability is interpreted as reasonable expectation representing a state of knowledge or as quantification of a personal belief.
Frequentist probability or frequentism is an interpretation of probability; it defines an event's probability as the limit of its relative frequency in many trials. Probabilities can be found by a repeatable objective process. The continued use of frequentist methods in scientific inference, however, has been called into question.
Statistical inference is the process of using data analysis to infer properties of an underlying distribution of probability. Inferential statistical analysis infers properties of a population, for example by testing hypotheses and deriving estimates. It is assumed that the observed data set is sampled from a larger population.
Statistics is a field of inquiry that studies the collection, analysis, interpretation, and presentation of data. It is applicable to a wide variety of academic disciplines, from the physical and social sciences to the humanities; it is also used and misused for making informed decisions in all areas of business and government.
Bayesian statistics is a theory in the field of statistics based on the Bayesian interpretation of probability where probability expresses a degree of belief in an event. The degree of belief may be based on prior knowledge about the event, such as the results of previous experiments, or on personal beliefs about the event. This differs from a number of other interpretations of probability, such as the frequentist interpretation that views probability as the limit of the relative frequency of an event after many trials.
And Quiet Flows the Don is a novel in four volumes by Russian writer Mikhail Sholokhov. The first three volumes were written from 1925 to 1932 and published in the Soviet magazine Oktyabr in 1928–1932, and the fourth volume was finished in 1940.
Arnoldo Frigessi di Rattalma is an Italian statistician based in Norway, where he is a professor at the Department of Biostatistics with the Institute of Basic Medical Research at the University of Oslo. He has also a position at the Oslo University Hospital and is affiliated with the Norwegian Computing Centre. He led the centre Statistics for Innovation, which was created in 2007 as one of 14 designated national centres for research-based innovation, funded by the Norwegian Research Council, until 2014. Frigessi succeeded in obtaining funding for a second centre of the same type, BigInsight, which started in 2014 and will operate for 8 years, again under his leadership. Frigessi develops new methods in statistics and machine learning and stochastic models to study principles, dynamics and patterns of complex dependence. His approach is often Bayesian and computationally intensive. He has developed theory for Markov Chain Monte Carlo methods, inferential methods for pair copula constructions, methods for the analysis of multiple genomic data types, the first digital twin of a breast tumor useful for personalised treatment. His work has been central to the national response to the COVID-19 pandemics in Norway, as a key member of the modelling group at the National Intritute of Public Health of Norway.
Statistics, in the modern sense of the word, began evolving in the 18th century in response to the novel needs of industrializing sovereign states. The evolution of statistics was, in particular, intimately connected with the development of European states following the peace of Westphalia (1648), and with the development of probability theory, which put statistics on a firm theoretical basis.
The foundations of statistics concern the epistemological debate in statistics over how one should conduct inductive inference from data. Among the issues considered in statistical inference are the question of Bayesian inference versus frequentist inference, the distinction between Fisher's "significance testing" and Neyman–Pearson "hypothesis testing", and whether the likelihood principle should be followed. Some of these issues have been debated for up to 200 years without resolution.
Frequentist inference is a type of statistical inference based in frequentist probability, which treats “probability” in equivalent terms to “frequency” and draws conclusions from sample-data by means of emphasizing the frequency or proportion of findings in the data. Frequentist-inference underlies frequentist statistics, in which the well-established methodologies of statistical hypothesis testing and confidence intervals are founded.
The philosophy of statistics involves the meaning, justification, utility, use and abuse of statistics and its methodology, and ethical and epistemological issues involved in the consideration of choice and interpretation of data and methods of statistics.
Jayanta Kumar Ghosh was an Indian statistician, an emeritus professor at Indian Statistical Institute and a professor of statistics at Purdue University.
In statistics, the focused information criterion (FIC) is a method for selecting the most appropriate model among a set of competitors for a given data set. Unlike most other model selection strategies, like the Akaike information criterion (AIC), the Bayesian information criterion (BIC) and the deviance information criterion (DIC), the FIC does not attempt to assess the overall fit of candidate models but focuses attention directly on the parameter of primary interest with the statistical analysis, say , for which competing models lead to different estimates, say for model . The FIC method consists in first developing an exact or approximate expression for the precision or quality of each estimator, say for , and then use data to estimate these precision measures, say . In the end the model with best estimated precision is selected. The FIC methodology was developed by Gerda Claeskens and Nils Lid Hjort, first in two 2003 discussion articles in Journal of the American Statistical Association and later on in other papers and in their 2008 book.
In Bayesian inference, the Bernstein-von Mises theorem provides the basis for using Bayesian credible sets for confidence statements in parametric models. It states that under some conditions, a posterior distribution converges in the limit of infinite data to a multivariate normal distribution centered at the maximum likelihood estimator with covariance matrix given by , where is the true population parameter and is the Fisher information matrix at the true population parameter value.
Erling Sverdrup was a Norwegian statistician and actuarial mathematician. He played an instrumental role in building up and modernising the fields of mathematical statistics and actuarial science in Norway, primarily at the Department of Mathematics at the University of Oslo but also via his links to Statistics Norway.
The Sverdrup Prize (Sverdrupprisen) is a Norwegian honorary award concerning the fields of theoretical and applied statistics.
JASP is a free and open-source program for statistical analysis supported by the University of Amsterdam. It is designed to be easy to use, and familiar to users of SPSS. It offers standard analysis procedures in both their classical and Bayesian form. JASP generally produces APA style results tables and plots to ease publication. It promotes open science by integration with the Open Science Framework and reproducibility by integrating the analysis settings into the results. The development of JASP is financially supported by several universities and research funds.
Gerda Claeskens is a Belgian statistician. She is a professor of statistics in the Faculty of Economics and Business at KU Leuven, associated with the KU Research Centre for Operations Research and Business Statistics (ORSTAT).
In Bayesian statistics, the Probability of Direction (pd) is a measure of effect existence representing the certainty with which an effect is positive or negative. This index is numerically similar to the frequentist p-value.
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