North Carolina gubernatorial election, 2016

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North Carolina gubernatorial election, 2016
Flag of North Carolina.svg
  2012 November 8, 2016 2020  

  Gov. Roy Cooper.jpg Pat McCrory in 2014.jpg
Nominee Roy Cooper Pat McCrory
Party Democratic Republican
Popular vote2,309,1572,298,880
Percentage49.0%48.8%

North Carolina Governor Election Results by County, 2016.svg
County results

Governor before election

Pat McCrory
Republican

Elected Governor

Roy Cooper
Democratic

The 2016 North Carolina gubernatorial election was held on November 8, 2016, to elect the Governor of North Carolina, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as elections to the United States Senate and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Governor of North Carolina head of state and of government of the U.S. state of North Carolina

The Governor of North Carolina is the head of state and head of government of the U.S. state of North Carolina. The governor directs the executive branch of the government and is the commander in chief of the military forces of the state. The current governor, Democrat Roy Cooper took office on January 1, 2017, and had a public swearing-in ceremony on January 7, 2017.

Contents

Primary elections were held March 15. [1] Both major party candidates won their primaries by overwhelming margins. Incumbent Republican Governor Pat McCrory was running for reelection to a second term in office. [2] Roy Cooper, the incumbent Attorney General of the state and the second-longest-serving Attorney General in North Carolina history, was the Democratic nominee. Lon Cecil, a consultant and electrical engineer, was the Libertarian nominee. The gubernatorial race was expected to be among the most competitive in the country in 2016. [3]

Republican Party (United States) Major political party in the United States

The Republican Party, also referred to as the GOP, is one of the two major political parties in the United States; the other is its historic rival, the Democratic Party.

Pat McCrory American politician

Patrick Lloyd McCrory is an American businessman, politician, and radio host who served as the 74th Governor of North Carolina from January 2013 to January 1, 2017. He served as the 53rd Mayor of Charlotte from 1995 to 2009, and was appointed by President George W. Bush to the United States Homeland Security Advisory Council from 2002 to 2006.

Roy Cooper 75th Governor of North Carolina

Roy Asberry Cooper III is an American politician and attorney serving as the 75th Governor of North Carolina since January 1, 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, Cooper had previously served as the elected Attorney General of North Carolina since 2001. Prior to that, he served in the General Assembly in both the North Carolina House of Representatives and the North Carolina Senate.

On election night, the race was too close to call, with Cooper leading by fewer than 5,000 votes out of more than 4.6 million cast. [4] That lead has since widened to 10,263 votes. Cooper claimed victory that night, with thousands of provisional ballots still yet to be counted, saying "We have won this race." However, McCrory refused to concede, claiming that the race was still too close to call and the winner had not yet been determined. He cast doubt on the authenticity of 90,000 late-arriving votes from Durham County, which put Cooper in the lead. [5] McCrory's campaign filed complaints alleging voter fraud in over 50 counties. [6] Both campaigns anticipated a protracted legal battle over the results. [7]

On November 22, 2016, McCrory formally requested a statewide recount; [8] once all ballots are counted, North Carolina election law allows either candidate to request a recount if the margin is fewer than 10,000 votes. [7] On November 30, 2016, the North Carolina State Board of Elections ordered a recount of certain votes in Durham County. [9] The recount was slated to be completed on December 5, 2016. However, when early results made it apparent that the margin would not change, McCrory conceded the race to Cooper on the afternoon of December 5. This was the first time since North Carolina governors became eligible for immediate reelection in 1976 that a sitting officeholder was defeated in his bid for a second term. [10]

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Robert Brawley American politician

Clyde Robert Brawley is a former Republican member of the North Carolina General Assembly.

Randolph County, North Carolina County in the United States

Randolph County is a county located in the U.S. state of North Carolina. As of the 2010 census, the population was 141,752. Its county seat is Asheboro.

Declined

Greg Brannon U.S. Republican, physician, politician, obstetrician

Gregory J. Brannon is an American physician and political activist. A native of Los Angeles, California, Brannon is a graduate of the University of Southern California and Chicago Medical School. After completing his residency, Brannon established a private obstetrics practice in Cary, North Carolina.

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
McCrory
Charles
Moss
Robert
Brawley
Undecided
Public Policy Polling March 11–13, 2016749± 3.6%70%7%6%17%
High Point University March 9–10, 2016734± 2.5%73%6%8%13%
SurveyUSA March 4–7, 2016688± 3.6%66%6%9%19%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016437± 4.5%67%17%16%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016597± 4.0%69%4%5%22%
High Point University January 30–February 4, 2016477± 4.5%75%3%2%20%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016433± 3.2%68%6%4%22%

Results

Republican primary results [17]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Pat McCrory(Incumbent)869,11482.0%
Republican Robert Brawley112,62411.0%
Republican Charles Moss81,3157.0%
Total votes1,063,053100.00%

Democratic primary

Results by county:
Roy Cooper
Ken Spaulding North Carolina Democratic Gubernatorial Primary 2016.svg
Results by county:
  Roy Cooper
  Ken Spaulding

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Roy
Cooper
Kenneth
Spaulding
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling March 11–13, 2016746± 3.6%53%17%30%
High Point University March 9–10, 2016669± 2.5%64%18%19%
SurveyUSA March 4–7, 2016687± 3.8%51%19%30%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 2016449± 4.7%50%21%29%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 2016575± 4.1%55%12%33%
High Point University January 30–February 4, 2016478± 4.5%49%11%40%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016461± 3.2%55%10%35%
Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 2015555± 2.8%54%10%36%
Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015421± 4.8%58%13%29%

Results

Democratic primary results [25]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Roy Cooper710,65869.0%
Democratic Ken Spaulding323,77431.0%
Total votes1,034,432100.0%

Libertarian primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrawn

Declined

Write-in candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [32] TossupAugust 12, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [33] Lean DOctober 6, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [34] TossupAugust 5, 2016
Daily Kos [35] TossupOctober 7, 2016
Real Clear Politics [36] TossupSeptember 15, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Pat
McCrory (R)
Roy
Cooper (D)
Lon
Cecil (L)
OtherUndecided
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 20163,126± 4.6%43%54%3%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College November 4–6, 2016800± 3.5%46%47%7%
Quinnipiac University November 3–6, 2016870± 3.3%47%50%1%3%
SurveyMonkey October 31–November 6, 20162,865± 4.6%43%54%3%
SurveyMonkey October 28–November 3, 20162,292± 4.6%44%53%3%
SurveyMonkey October 27–November 2, 20161,886± 4.6%45%53%2%
Quinnipiac University October 27–November 1, 2016602± 4.0%47%49%1%3%
SurveyMonkey October 26–November 1, 20161,617± 4.6%45%52%3%
SurveyUSA October 28–31, 2016659± 3.9%47%48%2%4%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 20161,574± 4.6%46%52%2%
CBS News/YouGov October 26–28, 2016992± 4.1%44%46%1%9%
Elon University Poll October 23–27, 2016710± 3.7%44%44%1%3%8%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 25–26, 2016780 LV± 3.5%45%51%2%2%
1,018 RV± 3.1%45%50%3%3%
Quinnipiac University October 20–26, 2016702± 3.7%47%49%3%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 20–23, 2016792± 3.5%45%51%4%
Monmouth University October 20–23, 2016402± 4.9%48%47%2%3%
Public Policy Polling October 21–22, 2016875± 3.3%44%46%3%8%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 17–18, 2016924± 3.0%43%50%7%
SurveyUSA October 14–18, 2016651± 3.9%45%47%3%5%
Civitas Institute (R) October 14–17, 2016600± 4.0%46%42%10%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 20161,191± 0.5%42%55%2%
CNN/ORC October 10–15, 2016788 LV± 3.5%48%49%2%
929 RV± 3.0%47%49%2%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 10–12, 2016743 LV± 3.6%48%49%1%3%
1,025 RV± 3.1%47%48%1%4%
High Point University October 1–6, 2016479± 4.5%42%49%3%5%
SurveyUSA September 29–October 3, 2016656± 3.9%44%48%2%6%
Bloomberg/Selzer September 29–October 3, 2016805± 3.5%44%50%6%
Quinnipiac University September 27–October 2, 2016507± 4.4%46%48%6%
Elon University Poll September 27–30, 2016660± 3.8%44%48%3%5%
Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016861± 3.3%42%45%4%9%
44%49%7%
Meredith College September 18–22, 2016487± 4.4%41%39%1%6%14%
High Point University September 17–22, 2016404± 4.9%41%50%3%5%
FOX News September 18–20, 2016734 LV± 3.5%46%43%3%1%7%
800 RV45%42%3%1%9%
Public Policy Polling September 18–20, 20161,024± 3.1%41%46%2%11%
43%50%8%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College September 16–19, 2016782± 3.6%42%50%7%
Elon University Poll September 12–16, 2016644± 3.9%49%46%2%3%
Civitas Institute (R) September 11–12, 2016600± 4.0%45%43%1%9%
Quinnipiac University August 29–September 7, 2016751± 3.6%44%51%5%
Monmouth University August 20–23, 2016401± 4.9%43%52%3%3%
CNN/ORC August 18–23, 2016803 LV± 3.5%46%52%2%
912 RV
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 4–10, 2016921± 3.2%44%51%5%
Public Policy Polling August 5–7, 2016830± 3.4%42%43%4%11%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–11, 2016907± 3.3%45%49%1%5%
Civitas Institute (R) June 21–23, 2016600± 4.0%45%40%3%10%
Public Policy Polling June 20–21, 2016947± 3.2%41%41%6%13%
Civitas Institute (R) May 21–23, 2016600± 4.0%45%40%3%11%
Public Policy Polling May 20–22, 2016928± 3.2%41%41%5%13%
RABA Research April 27–28, 2016688± 3.7%36%41%6%17%
Civitas Institute (R) April 23–25, 2016600± 4.0%39%48%5%8%
Public Policy Polling April 22–24, 2016960± 3.2%42%43%4%11%
Elon University Poll April 10–15, 2016621± 3.9%42%48%6%5%
SurveyUSA April 8–11, 2016701± 3.8%43%47%2%8%
Public Policy Polling March 18–20, 2016843± 3.4%42%40%6%12%
High Point University March 9–10, 20161,576± 2.5%47%45%8%
Elon University Poll February 15–19, 20161,530± 2.5%40%42%3%15%
Public Policy Polling February 14–16, 20161,291± 2.7%43%41%16%
SurveyUSA February 14–16, 20161,250± 2.8%45%42%12%
Public Policy Polling January 18–19, 2016948± 3.2%40%43%17%
Public Policy Polling December 5–7, 20151,214± 2.8%44%42%14%
Elon University Poll October 29–November 2, 20151,040± 3.0%40%45%3%13%
Public Policy Polling October 23–25, 2015893± 3.3%43%44%13%
Public Policy Polling September 24–27, 20151,268± 2.8%44%41%15%
Elon University Poll September 17–21, 20151,258± 3.0%43%42%3%11%
Public Policy Polling August 12–16, 2015957± 3.2%39%42%18%
Civitas Institute (R) August 10–12, 2015400± 4.0%32%34%33%
Public Policy Polling July 2–6, 2015529± 4.3%41%43%16%
Civitas Institute (R) June 23–25, 2015600± 4.0%43%38%17%
Public Policy Polling May 28–31, 2015561± 4.1%41%44%15%
Elon University Poll April 20–24, 2015677± 3.8%45%43%4%8%
Public Policy Polling April 2–5, 2015751± 3.6%44%41%15%
Public Policy Polling February 24–26, 2015849± 3.4%43%41%16%
Diversified Research February 2–3, 2015800± 3.5%44%42%14%
Public Policy Polling January 29–31, 2015845± 3.4%44%39%17%
Meeting Street Research January 21–22, 2015500± 4.4%47%44%9%
Public Policy Polling December 4–7, 2014823± 3.4%46%39%15%
Gravis Marketing October 29–30, 20141,006± 3.0%47%45%8%
Gravis Marketing October 16–18, 20141,022± 3.0%49%41%9%
Gravis Marketing September 22–23, 2014860± 3.0%45%42%12%
Public Policy Polling September 11–14, 20141,266± 2.8%44%41%15%
Public Policy Polling August 14–17, 2014856± 3.4%44%43%14%
Gravis Marketing July 22–27, 20141,380± 3.0%44%46%10%
Public Policy Polling June 12–15, 20141,076± 3.0%44%42%14%
Public Policy Polling May 9–11, 2014877± 3.3%43%42%15%
Public Policy Polling April 3–6, 2014740± 3.6%43%43%15%
Public Policy Polling February 6–9, 2014708± 3.7%43%41%15%
Public Policy Polling September 6–9, 2013600± 4.0%42%48%11%
North Carolina's gubernatorial election, 2016 [37]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Democratic Roy Cooper 2,309,162 49.02% +5.79%
Republican Pat McCrory (Incumbent)2,298,88148.80%-5.82%
Libertarian Lon Cecil102,9782.19%+0.06%
Margin of victory10,2810.22%-7.92%
Turnout 4,711,02168.98%+1.68%
Democratic gain from Republican

Polls closed at 7:30 pm on election day. On election night, as votes were tallied, Cooper held an early lead, but was overtaken by McCrory around 9:30 pm, and McCrory held the lead for most of the evening. Shortly before midnight, McCrory held a 60,000 vote lead until a block of 90,000 votes from Durham County was added to the total, putting Cooper back in the lead by fewer than 5,000 votes out of 4,500,000 cast. [5] Both candidates addressed supporters around 12:30 am; Cooper declared victory, while McCrory vowed the race was not over and that every vote needed to be counted. [5]

Under North Carolina state law, absentee ballots postmarked on or before election day must be counted, and military and overseas ballots accepted through November 17 must also be counted. [38] Additionally, election administrators "must decide the eligibility of more than 60,000 provisional ballots and the validity of thousands of challenged votes." [38] This process, plus a protracted legal challenge from the McCrory campaign, was likely to leave the election result not formally decided for some time after election day. [38]

McCrory's campaign said that it had "grave concerns over potential irregularities in Durham County." [5] Republican Party of North Carolina Chairman Robin Hayes called Cooper's declaration of victory "rude and grossly premature." [7] On November 10, 2016, both campaigns announced they had retained attorneys in anticipation of a protracted legal battle: Cooper hired lawyers from Washington-based firm Perkins Coie (including Marc Elias [39] ), while McCrory hired lawyers from Virginia-based firm Holtzman Vogel Josefiak. [7]

Once all ballots are counted, North Carolina election law allows either candidate to request a recount if the margin is fewer than 10,000 votes. [7]

On November 12, the general counsel of the Durham County Republican Party filed a formal protest with the Durham County Board of Elections alleging "malfeasance" in the tallying of votes in Durham County and calling for a recount. [40] McCrory's campaign said that the 90,000 votes added to the total late on election night appeared to have come from corrupted memory cards. A campaign spokesman said, "What transpired in Durham County is extremely troubling and no citizen can have confidence in the results at this point in time." [40]

On November 14, WRAL reported that there was speculation among political operatives about whether the race could possibly be contested and handed to the North Carolina General Assembly to determine the winner, as was done in 2005, when the General Assembly made June Atkinson the winner of a disputed election for the office of North Carolina Superintendent of Public Instruction. [41] North Carolina House Speaker Tim Moore said getting the General Assembly involved would be "an absolute last resort". [42]

Also on November 14, WRAL reported that the State Bureau of Investigation was investigating whether crimes were committed in the mishandling of 1,000 ballots in the March 2016 primaries in Durham County, the likely epicenter of the battle over the gubernatorial race. [43] The Durham County electoral board chairman said there was no connection between the investigation and the gubernatorial race. [43]

On November 15 Bladen County Soil and Water Conservation District Supervisor McCrae Dowless, a Republican and the incumbent for reelection, filed a protest with that county's board of elections over several hundred absentee ballots cast for Cooper and other Democrats, claiming that they were fraudulent; on the basis of similarity of the handwriting with which they were filled out. In his initial filing, Dowless claimed corroboration by a handwriting expert. The complainant had initially expressed concerns about voter fraud related to his own reelection campaign, and before election day. [44] [45] [46] The McCrory campaign alleged that the ballots were filled out by paid employees of the Bladen County Improvement Association PAC, a political action committee that received funding from the North Carolina Democratic Party. [44] The complaint alleged that one person served as a witness for at least 67 mail-in absentee ballots, and the same person appeared to have filled out the selections on 71 ballots. [47] It said there were at least 250 questionable ballots connected to five people paid by the Bladen County Improvement Association PAC. That organization has responded that the people involved were volunteers with their get-out-the-vote effort, and that the only payments made to them were small stipends for expenses incurred as part of that activity; such as food and gas costs. [48] The McCrory campaign stated, "A massive voting fraud scheme has been uncovered in Bladen County." [48] In response, the Cooper campaign stated: "Governor McCrory has set a new standard for desperation in his attempts to undermine the results of an election he lost." [49]

On November 16, the McCrory campaign announced it had filed election protests alleging fraud in 11 more counties. [6] [50] On November 17, the McCrory campaign announced the number of counties in which it had filed protests alleging voter fraud had grown to 50 counties, [49] [51] which the Associated Press reported were "without offering detailed proof." [52]

Every county election board in the state has three members: two Republican appointees and one Democrat. [39] [53]

Durham County has been seen as the most pivotal county, as it has the most votes at stake. [39] On November 16, the Durham County Board of Elections voted 2-1 to hold an evidentiary hearing on election protest about the ballots in Durham County. [54] At the hearing on November 18, the board unanimously dismissed the protest, with the board's Republican chairman, William Brian Jr., saying that all the evidence shows that the count is correct. [52]

By November 18, Cooper's unofficial advantage over McCrory had grown to about 6,600 votes, out of almost 4.7 million cast. [52] [53]

On November 20, the state Board of Elections held an emergency meeting. They declined a McCrory campaign petition for the state board to take jurisdiction over all 50 county election protests, except for the one in Bladen County, which they took over. [55] They decided to convene another meeting on November 22 to issue guidance to county boards on how to handle the protests. [56]

On November 22, the McCrory campaign formally requested a statewide recount. [8]

Also on November 22, the Civitas Institute filed a federal lawsuit seeking an injunction to delay the State Board of Elections' count of ballots of unverified same-day registrants, alleging that there is not enough time to verify the eligibility of voters who registered to vote on election day. [57] Civitas said that neither the McCrory campaign nor the state Republican Party were involved in the lawsuit. [58] Civitas cited a 2012 review conducted by the state Board of Elections that found 2.44% of voters who used same-day registration in 2012 failed the verification process, but the process was not completely finished when the ballots were counted. [58] A court hearing is scheduled for December 8. [59]

On November 26, the Durham County Republican Party's general counsel asked the state Board of Elections to hold an expedited hearing on his appeal of the Durham County Board of Elections' refusal to conduct a recount of that county's votes. [60] The campaign stated they would withdraw their request for a statewide recount if a manual recount of Durham County votes produced the same results as were reported on election day. [61]

On November 30, the State Board of Elections ordered a recount of the Durham County votes. [9] The recount was to be completed by 7 p.m. on December 5. However, by that morning, early results showed no change in the tally. McCrory announced on his campaign's YouTube channel that he was conceding the race to Cooper, saying that it was now clear that "the majority of our citizens had spoken." [10]

Official results

North Carolina's gubernatorial election, 2016 [62]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Democratic Roy Cooper 2,309,157 49.02% +5.79%
Republican Pat McCrory (Incumbent)2,298,88048.80%-5.82%
Libertarian Lon Cecil102,9772.19%+0.06%
Margin of victory10,2770.22%-5.47%
Turnout 4,711,01468.98%+1.68%
Democratic gain from Republican

Aftermath

Following the election, the General Assembly, controlled by Republicans, passed legislation that would limit the incoming governor's powers. [63] Democrats have referred to the move as a power grab, and Republicans have countered that Democrats have made similar moves when they controlled the legislature. [64]

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References

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  2. 1 2 "Gov. Pat McCrory launches 2016 campaign". The News & Observer. December 2, 2014. Retrieved December 5, 2014.
  3. "Top 10 governors races of 2016" . Retrieved November 22, 2016.
  4. "In North Carolina, a Governor's Race Is Too Close to Call". The New York Times. November 9, 2016. Retrieved November 22, 2016.
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  6. 1 2 "McCrory team: Election protests filed in 12 counties" . Retrieved November 22, 2016.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 "The North Carolina governor's race still isn't over. And it's about to get even uglier" . Retrieved November 22, 2016.
  8. 1 2 N.C. governor seeks recount amid voter-fraud complaints, won’t concede
  9. 1 2 STATE BOARD ORDERS RECOUNT OF 94,000 DURHAM COUNTY VOTES
  10. 1 2 Campbell, Colin (2016-12-06). "Gov. Pat McCrory concedes defeat to Roy Cooper as Durham recount wraps up". The News & Observer.
  11. Campbell, Colin (December 9, 2015). "Gov. Pat McCroy gets a challenger in Republican primary". The News & Observer . Retrieved December 10, 2015.
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