United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016

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United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016
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  Pat Toomey official photo.jpg Kathleen McGinty (2015).jpg
Nominee Pat Toomey Katie McGinty
Party Republican Democratic
Popular vote2,951,7022,865,012
Percentage48.8%47.3%
Pennsylvania Senate Election Results by County, 2016.svg
County results

Toomey:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%

Contents

McGinty:     40–50%     50–60%     80–90%
U.S. Senator before election

Pat Toomey
Republican

Elected U.S. Senator

Pat Toomey
Republican

The 2016 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania took place on November 8, 2016, to elect a member of the United States Senate to represent the State of Pennsylvania, concurrently with the 2016 U.S. presidential election, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in numerous other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. The primaries were held on April 26. Incumbent Republican U.S. Senator Pat Toomey was reelected to a second term in office, defeating Democratic nominee Katie McGinty and Libertarian Party nominee Edward Clifford. [1] [2]

United States Senate Upper house of the United States Congress

The United States Senate is the upper chamber of the United States Congress, which along with the United States House of Representatives—the lower chamber—comprises the legislature of the United States. The Senate chamber is located in the north wing of the Capitol, in Washington, D.C.

Pennsylvania State of the United States of America

Pennsylvania, officially the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania, is a state located in the northeastern and Mid-Atlantic regions of the United States. The Appalachian Mountains run through its middle. The Commonwealth is bordered by Delaware to the southeast, Maryland to the south, West Virginia to the southwest, Ohio to the west, Lake Erie and the Canadian province of Ontario to the northwest, New York to the north, and New Jersey to the east.

Background

Five-term Senator Arlen Specter, a moderate Republican, switched to the Democratic Party in April 2009, running for re-election in 2010 as such. He was defeated in the Democratic primary by U.S. Representative and former U.S. Navy three-star admiral Joe Sestak. After a close race, Sestak lost the general election to former U.S. Representative Pat Toomey by 51% to 49%, a margin of 80,229 votes out of almost 4 million cast. Specter later died in 2012.

Arlen Specter American politician; former United States Senator from Pennsylvania

Arlen Specter was an American lawyer, author, and politician who served as United States Senator for Pennsylvania. Specter was a Democrat from 1951 to 1965, then a Republican from 1965 until 2009, when he switched back to the Democratic Party. First elected in 1980, he represented Pennsylvania in the U.S. Senate for 30 years.

Rockefeller Republican Political ideology within the American Republican Party

The Rockefeller Republicans, also called Moderate or Liberal Republicans, were members of the Republican Party (GOP) in the 1930s–1970s who held moderate to liberal views on domestic issues, similar to those of Nelson Rockefeller, Governor of New York (1959–1973) and Vice President of the United States (1974–1977). Rockefeller Republicanism has been described as the last phase of the "Eastern Establishment" of the GOP which had been led by New York governor Thomas E. Dewey. The group's powerful role in the GOP came under heavy attack in 1964 and it lost most of its influence. At a discouraging point in the 1964 primary campaign against Barry Goldwater in California, political operative Stuart Spencer called on Rockefeller to "summon that fabled nexus of money, influence, and condescension known as the Eastern Establishment." Rockefeller replied, "You are looking at it, buddy, I am all that is left".

Democratic Party (United States) political party in the United States

The Democratic Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Republican Party. Tracing its heritage back to Thomas Jefferson and James Madison's Democratic-Republican Party, the modern-day Democratic Party was founded around 1828 by supporters of Andrew Jackson, making it the world's oldest active political party.

After the Republicans took control of the Senate following the 2014 Senate elections, the election in Pennsylvania was seen by many as a top target for the Democrats, who hoped to regain their majority. [3] [4] [5] Katie McGinty, who won the Democratic primary, was one of 160 candidates endorsed by Barack Obama. McGinty got her start in politics after winning the Congressional Fellowship of the American Chemical Society, leading to a position with then Senator Al Gore. In 1993 she was appointed deputy assistant and then chair of the White House Council of Environmental Quality under Bill Clinton. She then went on to be appointed head of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection by Governor Ed Rendell in 2003. [6]

Barack Obama 44th president of the United States

Barack Hussein Obama II is an American attorney and politician who served as the 44th president of the United States from 2009 to 2017. A member of the Democratic Party, he was the first African American to be elected to the presidency. He previously served as a U.S. senator from Illinois from 2005 to 2008.

Al Gore 45th Vice President of the United States

Albert Arnold Gore Jr. is an American politician and environmentalist who served as the 45th vice president of the United States from 1993 to 2001. Gore was Bill Clinton's running mate in their successful campaign in 1992, and the pair was re-elected in 1996. Near the end of Clinton's second term, Gore was selected as the Democratic nominee for the 2000 presidential election but lost the election in a very close race after a Florida recount. After his term as vice-president ended in 2001, Gore remained prominent as an author and environmental activist, whose work in climate change activism earned him the Nobel Peace Prize in 2007.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Did not file

Everett Stern American whistleblower

Everett Stern is an Intelligence Director and Founder of Tactical Rabbit. He was also a 2016 United States Senate candidate, known as the whistleblower in the HSBC money laundering scandal. He uncovered billions of dollars of illegal money laundering transactions which led to an SEC investigation and a $1.92 billion fine against HSBC in 2012.

HSBC British multinational banking and financial services holding company

HSBC Holdings plc is a British multinational banking and financial services holding company. It is the 7th largest bank in the world, and the largest in Europe, with total assets of US$2.558 trillion. HSBC traces its origin to a hong in Hong Kong, and its present form was established in London by the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation to act as a new group holding company in 1991. The origins of the bank lie mainly in Hong Kong and to a lesser extent in Shanghai, where branches were first opened in 1865. The HSBC name is derived from the initials of the Hongkong and Shanghai Banking Corporation. The company was first formally incorporated in 1866. The company continues to see both the United Kingdom and Hong Kong as its "home markets".

Pennsylvanias 13th congressional district United States congressional district in Pennsylvania

The 13th Congressional District of Pennsylvania is a congressional district in the U.S. state of Pennsylvania. The district contains all of Blair County, Huntingdon County, Bedford County, Fulton County, Franklin County, and Adams County. It also includes most of Somerset County, and parts of Westmoreland County, Cambria County, and Cumberland County. Republican John Joyce has represented the district since 2019.

Endorsements

Pat Toomey
U.S. Senators
John Cornyn American politician

John Cornyn III is an American politician and lawyer serving as the senior United States Senator from Texas since 2002. He served as the Republican Senate Majority Whip for the 114th and 115th Congresses. Cornyn also previously served as Chairman of the National Republican Senatorial Committee from 2007 to 2011.

Ted Cruz United States Senator from Texas

Rafael Edward Cruz is an American politician and attorney serving as the junior United States Senator for Texas since 2013. He was the runner-up for the Republican nomination for President of the United States in the 2016 election.

U.S. Representatives
Mayors
Michael Bloomberg American businessman and politician, former mayor of New York City

Michael Rubens Bloomberg KBE is an American businessman, politician, author, and philanthropist. As of March 2019, his net worth was estimated at $55.5 billion, making him the 8th-richest person in the United States and the 9th richest person in the world. He has joined The Giving Pledge, whereby billionaires pledge to give away at least half of their wealth. To date, Bloomberg has given away $8.2 billion, including his November 2018 $1.8 billion gift to Johns Hopkins University for student aid — the largest private donation ever made to a higher education institution.

Bloomberg L.P. American multinational mass media corporation

Bloomberg L.P. is a privately held financial, software, data, and media company headquartered in Midtown Manhattan, New York City. It was founded by Michael Bloomberg in 1981, with the help of Thomas Secunda, Duncan MacMillan, Charles Zegar, and a 30% ownership investment by Merrill Lynch.

Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Results

Republican primary results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Pat Toomey1,342,941100.00%
Total votes1,342,941100.00%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Did not file

Declined

Endorsements

John Fetterman
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Katie McGinty
Presidents
Vice Presidents
U.S. Cabinet members and Cabinet-level officials
U.S. Senators
Governors
U.S. Representatives
State legislators
Mayors and other municipal leaders
Individuals
Labor unions
Organizations
Newspapers
Joe Sestak
Individuals
Organizations
Newspapers

Debates

A debate hosted by Carnegie Mellon University's Heinz College in association with the 14th Ward Independent Democratic Club featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on January 31 at Rangos Hall in Jared L. Cohon University Center, Carnegie Mellon University, in Pittsburgh. [126]

A debate hosted by Keystone Progress featuring John Fetterman, Katie McGinty, and Joe Sestak occurred on February 19 at the Hilton Harrisburg, in the Harrisburg Ballroom, in Harrisburg. [127]

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Joe
Vodvarka		John
Fetterman		Katie
McGinty		Joe
Sestak		OtherUndecided
Franklin & Marshall College August 17–24, 2015298± ?––13%16%5%66%
Public Policy Polling October 8–11, 20151,012± 3.1%–14%22%29%–35%
Harper Polling January 22–23, 2016640± 3.8%–11%28%33%–28%
Harper Polling March 1–2, 2016662± 3.6%4%15%17%33%–35%
Franklin & Marshall College March 14–20, 2016408± 4.7%–7%14%31%2%46%
Harper Polling April 3–4, 2016603± 4.0%–9%31%41%–19%
Franklin & Marshall College April 11–18, 2016510± 5.3%–8%27%38%2%25%
Monmouth University April 17–19, 2016302± 5.6%–4%39%39%–18%
Harper Polling April 21–23, 2016641± 3.9%3%15%39%33%–11%
FOX 29/Opinion Savvy April 24–25, 2016942± 3.2%–14%39%34%–13%

Results

2016 United States Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania results McGinty -- 50-60% McGinty -- 40-50% McGinty -- <40% Sestak -- <40% Sestak -- 40-50% Sestak -- 60-70% Fetterman -- 40-50% United States Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania, 2016.svg
2016 United States Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania results
  McGinty — 50–60%
  McGinty — 40–50%
  McGinty — <40%
  Sestak — <40%
  Sestak — 40–50%
  Sestak — 60–70%
  Fetterman — 40–50%
2016 United States Senate Democratic primary in Pennsylvania results [27]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Katie McGinty 669,77442.50%
Democratic Joe Sestak 513,22132.57%
Democratic John Fetterman 307,09019.49%
Democratic Joseph Vodvarka85,8375.45%
Total votes1,575,922100.00%

General election

Candidates

Debates

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [129] TossupSeptember 30, 2016
Sabato's Crystal Ball [130] Lean DNovember 7, 2016
Rothenberg Political Report [131] TossupSeptember 30, 2016
Daily Kos [132] TossupSeptember 23, 2016
Real Clear Politics [133] TossupOctober 1, 2016

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Pat
Toomey (R)		Katie
McGinty (D)		Edward
Clifford (L)		OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling May 30 – June 1, 2014835± 3.4%42%38%——20%
Quinnipiac University August 7–18, 20151,085± 3%48%32%—1%17%
Franklin & Marshall College August 17–24, 2015605± 3.9%35%28%——38%
Harper Polling September 9–10, 2015700± 3.7%48%34%——18%
Quinnipiac University September 25 – October 5, 20151,049± 3.0%51%31%—1%15%
Public Policy Polling October 8–11, 20151,012± 3.1%43%36%——21%
Robert Morris University February 11–16, 2016511± 4.5%34%21%——45%
Harper Polling March 1–2, 2016662± 3.75%47%39%——13%
Mercyhurst University March 1–11, 2016421± 4.8%47%34%—2%13%
Quinnipiac University March 30 – April 4, 20161,737± 2.4%47%38%—1%12%
Quinnipiac University April 27 – May 8, 20161,077± 3.0%45%44%——11%
Public Policy Polling June 3–5, 20161,106± 3.0%41%38%——21%
Public Policy Polling June 8–9, 2016965± 3.2%45%42%——12%
Quinnipiac University June 8–19, 2016950± 3.2%49%40%——8%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps June 11–20, 2016300± 5.7%46%38%——16%
Public Policy Polling June 22–23, 2016980± 3.1%40%39%——21%
NBC/WSJ/Marist July 5–10, 2016829± 3.4%44%47%—2%8%
Quinnipiac University June 30 – July 11, 2016982± 3.1%49%39%—1%9%
Suffolk University July 25–27, 2016500± 4.4%36%43%—1%19%
Public Policy Polling July 29–31, 20161,505± 2.7%42%41%——17%
Franklin & Marshall College July 29 – August 1, 2016389 LV± 6.3%38%39%——23%
661 RV± 4.8%30%38%——32%
Susquehanna Polling & Research July 31 – August 4, 2016772± 3.5%40%42%—2%16%
NBC/WSJ/Marist August 3–7, 2016834± 3.4%44%48%—1%7%
Quinnipiac University July 30 – August 7, 2016815± 3.4%44%47%——9%
GBA Strategies August 21–28, 2016881± 4.4%42%47%—8%3%
Emerson College August 25–28, 2016800± 3.4%46%39%—5%10%
Franklin & Marshall College August 25–29, 2016496 LV± 5.6%38%43%——18%
736 RV± 4.6%37%36%——27%
Monmouth University August 26–29, 2016402± 4.9%41%45%6%—8%
Public Policy Polling August 26–27, 20161,194± 3.0%40%46%——14%
Public Policy Polling August 30–31, 2016814± 3.4%41%44%——15%
CBS News/YouGov August 30 – September 2, 20161,091± 4.1%39%39%—2%20%
Quinnipiac University August 29 – September 7, 2016778± 3.5%46%45%—1%7%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call September 12–16, 2016405± 5.5%38%43%——19%
Greenberg Quinlan Rosner - Democracy Corps September 10–19, 2016400± 4.0%45%43%——12%
Mercyhurst University September 12–23, 2016420± 4.8%43%42%——15%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call September 19–23, 2016486± 5.0%41%40%——20%
Harper Polling September 21–22, 2016500± 4.4%42%42%8%—8%
CNN/ORC September 20–25, 2016771 LV± 3.5%46%49%——2%
895 RV
Public Policy Polling September 27–28, 2016886± 3.3%35%40%9%—16%
42%44%——14%
Quinnipiac University September 27 – October 2, 2016535± 4.2%50%42%——7%
Franklin & Marshall College September 28 – October 2, 2016496 LV± 6.1%35%41%2%—22%
813 RV± 4.8%31%36%—11%22%
Monmouth University September 30 – October 3, 2016402± 4.9%46%46%3%—5%
NBC/WSJ/Marist October 3–6, 2016709± 3.7%44%48%—2%6%
CBS News/YouGov October 5–7, 2016997± 4.2%42%42%—1%15%
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 4–9, 2016764± 3.5%42%38%7%1%12%
The Times-Picayune/Lucid October 7–10, 20161,457± 3.0%44%44%——12%
Bloomberg/Selzer October 7–11, 2016806± 3.5%45%47%—2%4%
Washington Post/SurveyMonkey October 8–16, 20161,449± 0.5%47%47%——6%
Quinnipiac University October 10–16, 2016660± 3.8%49%45%——6%
Emerson College October 17–19, 2016800± 3.4%46%43%—5%7%
New York Times Upshot/Siena College October 23–25, 2016824± 3.4%44%47%——9%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call October 20–26, 2016420± 5.5%41%41%—1%17%
Emerson College October 25–26, 2016550± 4.1%43%45%—7%5%
CBS News/YouGov October 26–28, 20161,091± 3.7%41%44%—2%13%
Franklin & Marshall College October 26–30, 2016652 LV± 5.1%35%47%1%2%16%
863 RV± 4.4%33%43%—1%23%
SurveyMonkey October 25–31, 20162,255± 4.6%46%49%——5%
SurveyMonkey October 26 – November 2, 20162,078± 4.6%46%50%——4%
Quinnipiac University October 27 – November 1, 2016612± 4.0%47%48%—1%5%
CNN/ORC October 27 – November 1, 2016799 LV± 3.5%46%51%—1%1%
917 RV± 3.0%47%49%—1%2%
Monmouth University October 29 – November 1, 2016403± 4.9%44%47%3%—6%
Public Policy Polling October 31 – November 1, 20161,050± 3.0%44%46%——10%
SurveyMonkey October 27 – November 2, 20162,177± 4.6%46%50%——4%
Susquehanna Polling & Research October 31 – November 2, 2016681± 3.8%41%47%5%1%7%
SurveyMonkey October 28 – November 3, 20162,454± 4.6%45%50%——5%
Harper Polling November 2–3, 2016504± 4.4%44%44%6%—5%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call October 30 – November 4, 2016405± 5.5%43%42%——15%
Clarity Campaign Labs November 1–4, 20161,033± 3.0%43%46%——11%
CBS News/YouGov November 3–5, 2016931± 4.3%46%47%—1%6%
SurveyMonkey October 31 – November 6, 20162,685± 4.6%45%50%——5%
SurveyMonkey November 1–7, 20162,845± 4.6%45%49%——6%

Results

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2016 [2]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Republican Pat Toomey (Incumbent) 2,951,702 48.77% -2.24%
Democratic Katie McGinty2,865,01247.34%-1.65%
Libertarian Edward T. Clifford III235,1423.89%N/A
Total votes6,051,941100.00%
Republican hold Swing NA

See also

Related Research Articles

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Joe Sestak former United States Representative

Joseph Ambrose Sestak Jr. is an American politician and retired U.S. Navy officer. A member of the Democratic Party, he represented Pennsylvania's 7th congressional district in the United States House of Representatives from 2007 to 2011 and was the Democratic nominee for the United States Senate in 2010, losing to Republican nominee Pat Toomey. A three-star vice admiral, he was the highest-ranking military official ever elected to the United States Congress at the time of his election.

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References

  1. ↑ Stolberg, Sheryl Gay (November 9, 2016). "Patrick Toomey Wins Re-election in Pennsylvania Senate Race". The New York Times. Retrieved November 10, 2016.
  2. 1 2 "Archived copy". Archived from the original on November 13, 2016. Retrieved November 14, 2016.
  3. ↑ "Why Republicans' Senate majority could be very short-lived". The Washington Post. November 7, 2014. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  4. ↑ "Democrats' target in 2016: Sen. Toomey". philly.com. November 5, 2014. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  5. ↑ "The Seven Senate Races Democrats Should Be Optimistic About in 2016". Slate. July 3, 2014. Retrieved November 8, 2014.
  6. ↑ "Kathleen McGinty - Ballotpedia" . Retrieved December 9, 2016.
  7. ↑ By $${element.Contributor} (December 22, 2014). "10 Races to Watch in 2016: Pennsylvania Senate". Atr.rollcall.com. Retrieved April 2, 2016.
  8. ↑ Stern, Everett A. (January 26, 2015). "After serious consideration, I have made the decision to run for the PA 2016 United States Senate Seat..." Facebook. Retrieved April 5, 2015.
  9. 1 2 Jeffers, Gromer (October 4, 2016). "Ted Cruz, John Cornyn hosting Dallas fundraiser for U.S. Senate candidates". Dallas News . Retrieved October 7, 2016.
  10. ↑ "Iowa Senator Joni Ernst Voices Support For Pat Toomey's Re-Election" . Retrieved November 2, 2016.
  11. ↑ "McCain endorses Toomey for second term in U.S. Senate (photos)". newsworks. September 23, 2016. Retrieved September 24, 2016.
  12. ↑ Press, Associated. "Gabby Giffords Backs Re-Election Bid Of Pat Toomey" . Retrieved November 2, 2016.
  13. ↑ Tamari, Jonathan (August 1, 2016). "Michael Bloomberg endorses Pat Toomey in Pennsylvania Senate race". philly.com . Retrieved August 20, 2016.
  14. ↑ Arkin, James (January 8, 2016). "Bolton Endorses 16 for Re-Election to Congress". RealClearPolitics . Retrieved January 10, 2016.
  15. ↑ "Carly Fiorina on Twitter: "Proud to endorse @SenMikeLee in UT, @SenToomey in PA, & @RepStutzman in IN, for U.S. Senate!". Twitter. April 13, 2016. Retrieved July 9, 2016.
  16. ↑ Gass, Nick (August 22, 2016). "Giffords' anti-gun violence PAC endorses Toomey, Kirk". politico.com. Retrieved August 23, 2016.
  17. ↑ Sherfinski, David (November 12, 2014). "Club for Growth endorses six GOP senators for re-election in 2016". The Washington Times . Retrieved November 12, 2014.
  18. ↑ O'Connor, Patrick (July 6, 2015). "U.S. Chamber of Commerce gets an early start with 2016 ads". The Wall Street Journal . Retrieved September 4, 2016.
  19. ↑ "Toomey better fit for state". Altoona Mirror. October 31, 2016.
  20. ↑ "OUR ENDORSEMENT: Pat Toomey for U.S. Senate". Bucks County Courier Times. October 28, 2016.
  21. ↑ "OUR ENDORSEMENT: Pat Toomey for U.S. Senate". The Intelligencer. October 28, 2016.
  22. ↑ "For U.S. Senate, Republican Pat Toomey deserves re-election: Editorial". The Patriot-News. October 28, 2016.
  23. ↑ "Toomey for Senate: The Republican incumbent deserves another term". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. November 4, 2016.
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