Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014

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Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014
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  Governor Tom Wolf official portrait 2015 (cropped2).jpg Governor Corbett cropped portrait May 2014.jpg
Nominee Tom Wolf Tom Corbett
Party Democratic Republican
Running mate Mike Stack Jim Cawley
Popular vote1,920,355 1,575,511
Percentage54.9%45.1%
Pennsylvania Governor Election Results by County, 2014.svg
County Results
Wolf:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90%
Corbett:     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Governor before election

Tom Corbett
Republican

Elected Governor

Tom Wolf
Democratic

The 2014 Pennsylvania gubernatorial election was held on November 4, 2014, to elect the governor and lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Lieutenant Governor of Pennsylvania position

The Lieutenant Governor is a constitutional officer of the Commonwealth of Pennsylvania. The lieutenant governor is elected for a four-year term in the same year as the governor. Each party picks a candidate for lieutenant governor independently of the gubernatorial primary. The winners of the party primaries are then teamed together as a single ticket for the fall general election. Democrat John Fetterman is the incumbent lieutenant governor. The lieutenant governor presides in the Senate and is first in the line of succession to the governor; in the event the governor dies, resigns, or otherwise leaves office, the lieutenant governor becomes governor.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Governor Tom Corbett ran for re-election to a second term but was defeated by the Democratic nominee, Tom Wolf. [1] Corbett was the first incumbent Pennsylvania governor to lose reelection since William Bigler in 1854. [2]

Republican Party (United States) Major political party in the United States

The Republican Party, also referred to as the GOP, is one of the two major political parties in the United States; the other is its historic rival, the Democratic Party.

Tom Corbett Governor of Pennsylvania

Thomas Wingett Corbett Jr. is an American politician and attorney who served as the 46th governor of Pennsylvania from January 18, 2011 to January 20, 2015. He is a member of the Republican Party.

Democratic Party (United States) Major political party in the United States

The Democratic Party is one of the two major contemporary political parties in the United States, along with the Republican Party. Tracing its heritage back to Thomas Jefferson and James Madison's Democratic-Republican Party, the modern-day Democratic Party was founded around 1828 by supporters of Andrew Jackson, making it the world's oldest active political party.

Corbett was considered vulnerable, as reflected in his low approval ratings. An August 2013 Franklin & Marshall College poll found that only 17% of voters thought Corbett was doing an "excellent" or "good" job, only 20% thought he deserved to be reelected, and 62% said the state was "off on the wrong track". [3] Politico called Corbett the most vulnerable incumbent governor in the United States, [4] The Washington Post ranked the election as the most likely for a party switch, [5] and the majority of election forecasters rated it "likely Democratic".

Franklin & Marshall College college in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, United States

Franklin & Marshall College (F&M) is a private residential liberal arts college in Lancaster, Pennsylvania. It employs 175 full-time faculty members and has a student body of approximately 2,300 full-time students.

Politico, known originally as The Politico, is an American political journalism company based in Arlington County, Virginia, that covers politics and policy in the United States and internationally. It distributes content through its website, television, printed newspapers, radio, and podcasts. Its coverage in Washington, D.C., includes the U.S. Congress, lobbying, the media and the presidency.

<i>The Washington Post</i> Daily broadsheet newspaper published in Washington, D.C.

The Washington Post is a major American daily newspaper published in Washington, D.C., with a particular emphasis on national politics and the federal government. It has the largest circulation in the Washington metropolitan area. Its slogan "Democracy Dies in Darkness" began appearing on its masthead in 2017. Daily broadsheet editions are printed for the District of Columbia, Maryland, and Virginia.

Despite Corbett's unpopularity and speculation that he would face a primary challenge, [6] he was unopposed in the Republican primary. The Democrats nominated businessman and former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue Tom Wolf, who defeated U.S. Representative Allyson Schwartz, Pennsylvania Treasurer Robert McCord and former Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Environmental Protection Kathleen McGinty in the primary election. [7]

The Pennsylvania Department of Revenue (DOR) is an agency of the U.S. state of Pennsylvania. The department is responsible for collecting all Pennsylvania taxes, including all corporate taxes and taxes on inheritance, personal income, sales and use, realty transfer, motor fuel, and all other state taxes. The DOR was created in 1927 and began operating in 1929.

Tom Wolf American politician

Thomas Westerman Wolf is an American politician and businessman who has served as the 47th governor of Pennsylvania since January 20, 2015. A Democrat, he was elected in the 2014 gubernatorial election and re-elected in 2018. Prior to his election as Governor, Wolf was the Secretary of the Pennsylvania Department of Revenue from April 2007 to November 2008 and an executive in his family-owned business.

Allyson Schwartz American politician

Allyson Young Schwartz is a former member of the United States House of Representatives for Pennsylvania's 13th congressional district, serving from 2005–2015. She is a member of the Democratic Party. The district included parts of Montgomery County and Northeast Philadelphia. She was also National Chair for Recruitment and Candidate Services for the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee. In the 2014 election, Schwartz was a candidate for the Democratic nomination for Governor of Pennsylvania, but was defeated in the primary.

In primary elections for lieutenant governor, which were held separately, incumbent Republican Lieutenant Governor Jim Cawley was renominated unopposed and the Democrats selected State Senator Michael J. Stack III.

Jim Cawley American politician

James Cawley is an American politician who was the 32nd lieutenant governor of Pennsylvania, from 2011 to 2015. A Republican, he previously served on the Board of Commissioners of Bucks County, Pennsylvania.

Background

Democrats and Republicans have alternated in the governorship of Pennsylvania every eight years from 1950 to 2010. [8] This has been referred to as "the cycle", [9] [10] but it was broken with a Democratic Party win in 2014. Pennsylvania has also voted against the party of the sitting president in 18 of the last 19 gubernatorial contests dating back to 1938; Democrats lost 16 of the previous 17 Pennsylvania gubernatorial races with a Democratic president in the White House, a pattern begun in 1860. [11] The last incumbent Governor to be defeated for re-election was Democrat William Bigler in 1854. Until 1968, governors could only serve one term; the state constitution now allows governors to serve two consecutive terms. [12] Libertarian nominee Ken Krawchuk failed to file the paperwork to be on the ballot in time and was excluded from the election as a result.

William Bigler American politician

William Bigler was an American politician. A Democrat, he served as the 12th Governor of Pennsylvania from 1852 to 1855, and later a U.S. Senator for Pennsylvania from 1856 until 1861.

Republican primary

Incumbent Tom Corbett filed to run, as did Bob Guzzardi, an attorney and conservative activist. However, Guzzardi failed to file a statement of financial interests as required by law, after being told by an employee of the State Department that it was unnecessary. Four Republicans, backed by the state Republican Party, sued to have him removed from the race. The case reached the state Supreme Court, which ordered that Guzzardi's name be struck from the ballot. [13] NASCAR Camping World Truck Series veteran Norm Benning backed Governor Corbett during the later half of the NASCAR season with Re-Elect Tom Corbett placed on his truck.

Candidates

Declared

Disqualified

Declined

Endorsements

Tom Corbett
Elected Officials
Individuals
Others

Polling

Results

Republican primary results [52]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Tom Corbett (Incumbent)373,465100
Total votes373,465100

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Robert McCord
Individuals
Organizations
Kathleen McGinty
Individuals
Organizations
Ed Pawlowski
Individuals
Allyson Schwartz
Individuals
Organizations
Tom Wolf
Individuals
Organizations
  • Allegheny Court Association of Professional Employees (ACAPE) [113]
  • Association of State College and University Faculties (APSCUF) [125]
  • Humane PA [126]
  • Pennsylvania Young Democrats [127]
  • Pike County Democratic Committee [128]
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		John
Hanger		Tom
Knox		Jo Ellen
Litz		Robert
McCord		Kathleen
McGinty		Max
Myers		Ed
Pawl-
owski		Allyson
Schwartz		Joe
Sestak		Tim
Solobay		Mike
Stack		Jack
Wagner		Tom
Wolf		OtherUnde-
cided
Muhlenberg May 13–15, 2014414±5%———11%7%——16%————41%—25%
Harper May 12–13, 2014559±4.14%———15%5%——15%————50%—16%
F&M College May 6–12, 2014530±4.3%———11%6%——19%————41%3%20%
Muhlenberg April 28–30, 2014417±5%———13%3%——14%————42%—28%
GQR** Mar. 31–Apr. 3, 2014600±?———14%5%——12%————52%—16%
F&M College March 25–31, 2014524±4.3%———8%6%——9%————40%6%31%
Harper Feb. 22–23, 2014501±4.38%7%——8%6%——14%———7%40%—19%
F&M College Feb. 18–23, 2014548±4.2%1%——3%1%——9%————36%1%48%
PPP Nov. 22–25, 2013436±4.7%8%—2%10%9%2%4%21%———17%2%—27%
Harper Nov. 9–10, 2013649±3.85%7%——12%15%—6%22%————5%—34%
GHY^ Aug. 27–29, 2013506± 4.4%———6%6%——25%————6%—57%
BSG* July 16–18, 2013800±3.46%———10%15%——34%————11%—30%
Quinnipiac May 30–Jun. 4, 2013460± 4.6%1%——4%5%1%1%18%——1%—2%1%63%
Quinnipiac April 19–24, 2013547± 4.2%0%——3%——1%15%15%—1%—3%2%60%
GSG March 9–12, 2013601± 4%1%——5%5%—3%18%15%3%1%—2%—47%
1%——7%7%—3%21%—3%2%—2%—54%
———12%———31%————7%—49%
GQR** March 2–7, 2013602±3.99%1%1%—7%3%——16%21%—2%—3%1%45%
Harper Feb. 27–28, 2013?±?0.82%2.88%—7%———18.52%19.75%———1.23%—49.79%

Results

Democratic primary results [52]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tom Wolf488,91757.86
Democratic Allyson Schwartz149,02717.64
Democratic Robert McCord142,31116.84
Democratic Kathleen McGinty64,7547.66
Total votes845,009100

General election

Candidates

Debates

Spending

As of mid-October, Wolf had raised $27.6 million and spent $21.1 million while Corbett had raised $20.6 million and spent $19.3 million. The two campaigns had run over 21,000 television ads, costing over $13 million. [134]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [135] Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [136] Safe DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [137] Likely DNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [138] Likely DNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Tom
Corbett (R)		Tom
Wolf (D)		OtherUndecided
Muhlenberg College October 27–29, 2014409± 5%39%51%6%4%
Magellan Strategies October 27–28, 20141,433± 2.6%43.3%49.6%—7.1%
Harper Polling October 26–27, 2014680± 3.76%40%50%—10%
Franklin & Marshall October 20–26, 2014326 LV± 5.1%40%53%1%5%
738 RV± 3.4%37%53%1%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20143,111± 3%39%52%0%8%
Magellan Strategies October 13–14, 20141,131± 2.9%42.2%49.1%—8.7%
Quinnipiac University September 30–October 5, 2014907± 3.3%38%55%2%5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 20143,283± 2%41%50%0%9%
Robert Morris University September 26–29, 2014500± 4%33.8%56.8%—9.4%
Mercyhurst University September 15–24, 2014479± 4.48%28%43%2%27%
Franklin & Marshall September 15–22, 2014231 LV± 6.4%37%57%2%5%
520 RV± 4.3%33%54%4%9%
Magellan Strategies September 17–18, 20141,120± 2.9%40%48.6%—11.4%
Muhlenberg College September 16–18, 2014429± 5%33%54%4%9%
Quinnipiac University September 3–8, 20141,161± 2.9%35%59%2%4%
Harper Polling September 2–3, 2014665± 3.2%41%52%—7%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 20143,560± 2%39%50%2%10%
Robert Morris University August 18–22, 2014500± 4.5%24.7%55.5%—19.8%
Franklin & Marshall August 18–25, 2014520± 4.3%24%49%1%25%
Magellan Strategies July 30–31, 20141,214± 2.83%38.1%50.3%—11.6%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20144,150± ?39%52%2%7%
Franklin & Marshall June 23–29, 2014502± 4.4%25%47%1%27%
Quinnipiac University May 29–June 2, 20141,308± 2.7%33%53%1%13%
Public Policy Polling May 30–June 1, 2014835± 3.4%30%55%—15%
Rasmussen Reports May 27–28, 2014750± 4%31%51%4%14%
Quinnipiac University February 19–24, 20141,405± 2.6%33%52%1%13%
Gravis Marketing January 22–23, 2014717± 4%34%41%—24%
Quinnipiac University December 11–16, 20131,061± 3%37%44%1%19%
Public Policy Polling November 22–25, 2013693± 3.7%32%44%—24%
Quinnipiac University March 6–11, 20131,116± 2.9%39%39%2%20%
Public Policy Polling March 8–10, 2013504± 4.4%33%42%—25%
Public Policy Polling January 4–6, 2013675± 3.8%41%29%—30%

Results

Pennsylvania gubernatorial election, 2014 [139]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Tom Wolf/Michael J. Stack III 1,920,35554.93%
Republican Tom Corbett/Jim Cawley (Incumbent)1,575,51145.07%
Total votes3,495,866100.00%
Democratic gain from Republican

By congressional district

Corbett won 10 of 18 congressional districts, despite losing statewide to Wolf. [140]

DistrictCorbettWolfRepresentative
1st 16%84% Bob Brady
2nd 8%92% Chaka Fattah
3rd 54%46% Mike Kelly
4th 56%44% Scott Perry
5th 51%49% Glenn Thompson
6th 49%51% Jim Gerlach
Ryan Costello
7th 48%52% Patrick Meehan
8th 48%52% Mike Fitzpatrick
9th 55%45% Bill Shuster
10th 59%41% Tom Marino
11th 53%47% Lou Barletta
12th 53%47% Keith Rothfus
13th 30%70% Brendan Boyle
14th 30%70% Michael F. Doyle
15th 50%50% Charlie Dent
16th 54%46% Joe Pitts
17th 39%61% Matt Cartwright
18th 54%46% Tim Murphy

See also

Related Research Articles

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References

  1. ↑ "NBC News Projects: PA's Corbett Ousted by Democrat Tom Wolf". NBC News. November 4, 2014. Retrieved November 4, 2014.
  2. ↑ http://articles.philly.com/2014-11-06/news/56395405_1_exit-polls-mount-wolf-democrat-tom-wolf
  3. ↑ "Franklin & Marshall College poll" (PDF). Franklin & Marshall College. August 28, 2013.
  4. ↑ Schultheis, Emily (May 13, 2013). "Pa. Dems line up to run vs. hobbled Corbett". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 14, 2013.
  5. ↑ "WaPo: PA-Gov #1 Most Likely to Switch Parties" . Retrieved November 15, 2014.
  6. ↑ Keegan Gibson (December 5, 2012). "Exclusive: Castor Mulling Primary Challenge to Corbett". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 21, 2014.
  7. ↑ Foster, Brittany (20 May 2014). "PA-Gov: Wolf Wins Democratic Nomination". PoliticsPA. Retrieved 21 May 2014.
  8. ↑ Barone, Michael (2014). The Almanac of American Politics. Chicago: University of Chicago Press. p. 1398. ISBN   9780226105444.
  9. ↑ Madonna, Terry. "The Eight-Year Cycle - Believe It!". Franklin & Marshall College.
  10. ↑ Baer, John M. (2012). On the Front Lines of Pennsylvania Politics. Charleston: The History Press. p. 71. ISBN   9781609497156.
  11. ↑ Ostermeier, Eric (August 26, 2013). "Pennsylvania Democrats Hope to Reverse History in 2014 Gubernatorial Race". Smart Politics.
  12. ↑ Pennsylvania Constitution article IV, § 3.
  13. ↑ Jackson, Peter (1 May 2014). "Corbett's GOP foe Bob Guzzardi ordered off Pa. primary ballot". The Delaware County Daily Times. Retrieved 21 May 2014.
  14. ↑ Gibson, Keegan (December 10, 2013). "Conservative Activist Mounts Primary Challenge to Corbett". PoliticsPA. Retrieved December 14, 2013.
  15. ↑ Brittany Foster (May 1, 2014). "Supreme Court Strikes Guzzardi From PA-Gov Ballot". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 5, 2014.
  16. ↑ Gibson, Keegan (May 8, 2013). "Breaking: Castor Rules Out 2014 Run". PoliticsPA. Retrieved May 7, 2013.
  17. ↑ Foster, Brittany (January 6, 2013). "Breaking: Rep. Gerlach Will Not Seek Reelection". PoliticsPA. Retrieved January 6, 2013.
  18. ↑ Gibson, Keegan (March 12, 2013). "Tom Smith Not Running for Governor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved March 13, 2013.
  19. ↑ Gibson, Keegan (October 7, 2013). "GOP Rumors Swirl About Top-Ticket Change". PoliticsPA. Retrieved November 13, 2013.
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  23. ↑ "Santorum Plans to stump for Corbett". September 17, 2013. Retrieved January 5, 2014.
  24. ↑ "Corbett-Cawley Campaign Endorsed by U.S. Senator Pat Toomey". December 20, 2012. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
  25. ↑ "Three Former PA Governors Endorse Corbett in Hershey". PoliticsPA. November 12, 2012. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
  26. 1 2 "Three Former PA Governors Endorse Corbett in Hershey". PoliticsPA. November 12, 2012. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
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  28. ↑ "Pa. Republicans need to rally round Tom Corbett: U.S. Rep Mike Kelly". PennLive. May 14, 2014. Retrieved May 14, 2014.
  29. ↑ "Congressman 'G.T.' Thompson Statement on Improving Unemployment Rate under Corbett Administration Leadership". March 21, 2014. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
  30. ↑ "First Lady Susan Corbett and Rep. Tim Murphy sign petitions for Gov. Corbett and Lt. Gov. Cawley". March 1, 2014. Retrieved March 1, 2014.
  31. ↑ "Corbett-Cawley Campaign Announces Statewide Leadership". March 13, 2014. Retrieved March 13, 2014.
  32. 1 2 3 4 5 "Corbett Kicks Off Re-Election Bid". PoliticsPA. November 6, 2012. Retrieved January 5, 2014. Several Republican officials cheered Corbett along with roughly 150 attendees, including Majority Leader Mike Turzai, State Sens. Randy Vulakovich and Kim Ward and State Reps. Hal English and Jim Christiana.
  33. ↑ "PHILADELPHIA GOP CHAIRMAN JOHN TAYLOR STATEMENT ON IMPROVING UNEMPLOYMENT RATE UNDER CORBETT ADMINISTRATION LEADERSHIP". March 21, 2014. Retrieved March 21, 2014.
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  39. ↑ "David Cohen, Democratic Donor, Hosts Fundraiser for Tom Corbett, GOP Governor". Huffington Post. February 21, 2013. Retrieved January 5, 2014.
  40. ↑ "Comparing the Pennsylvania Candidates on Life". June 3, 2014. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  41. ↑ "PA Pro-Life PAC Endorsements" (PDF). peopleforlife.org. May 2014. Retrieved May 17, 2014.
  42. ↑ "2014 Primary Voter's Guide". paprolife.org. Retrieved May 17, 2014.
  43. ↑ "RGA Statement on Pennsylvania Governor Tom Corbett's Re-Election Announcement" . Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  44. ↑ "Gov. Tom Corbett accepts state GOP committee's endorsement in Hershey". February 1, 2014. Retrieved March 1, 2014.
  45. ↑ "Press Release:Pennsylvania Federation of College Republicans endorses Corbett and Cawley". November 11, 2013. Retrieved January 5, 2014.
  46. ↑ "County Republicans back Corbett, local legislators". Centre Daily Times. March 20, 2014. Retrieved March 20, 2014.
  47. ↑ "W. Pa. Laborers endorse Corbett". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. May 22, 2014. Retrieved May 22, 2014.
  48. ↑ "Boilermakers back Corbett". Pittsburgh Post Gazette. June 4, 2014. Retrieved June 4, 2014.
  49. ↑ "Press Release: ChamberPAC endorses Governor Corbett, Lieutenant Governor Cawley in 2014 election" (PDF). December 10, 2012. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
  50. ↑ "PA Chamber Endorses Corbett". December 12, 2012. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
  51. ↑ "Pennsylvania's Oldest Pro-Business PAC First Endorsement for Tom Corbett for Re-election". PR Newswire. November 5, 2012. Retrieved January 4, 2014.
  52. 1 2 "2014 General Primary - Governor". Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved May 12, 2014.
  53. ↑ Laughlin, Nicholas (September 24, 2013). "Rob McCord: "I'm In" (With Video)". PoliticsPA. Retrieved September 24, 2013.
  54. ↑ "McGinty Makes it Official: She's Running for Gov" . Retrieved November 15, 2014.
  55. ↑ "Allyson Schwartz Plans to run for Pennsylvania Governor". Politico . Retrieved March 28, 2013.
  56. ↑ Mahon, Ed (April 2, 2013). "Tom Wolf to run for Pennsylvania governor". York Daily Record . Retrieved April 3, 2013.
  57. ↑ Gibson, Keegan (November 26, 2012). "Hanger Makes Guv Bid Official". PoliticsPA. Retrieved February 26, 2013.
  58. ↑ Foster, Brittany (March 13, 2014). "PA-Gov: Hanger To Withdraw". PoliticsPA. Retrieved March 13, 2014.
  59. ↑ Sholly, Chris (July 3, 2013). "Lebanon County's Jo Ellen Litz announces run for governor". Lebanon Daily News . Retrieved August 20, 2013.
  60. ↑ John Latimer (March 11, 2014). "Lebanon County Commissioner Jo Ellen Litz fails to qualify for gubernatorial ballot". Lebanon Daily News . Retrieved March 12, 2014.
  61. ↑ Baer, John (December 7, 2012). "A Dem from God?". Philadelphia Daily News . Retrieved January 29, 2013.
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  63. ↑ "Ed Pawlowski announces run for governor". The Morning Call . September 8, 2013. Retrieved September 10, 2013.
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  99. ↑ "From the Office of Governor Maggie Hassan: I Need Allyson to Join Me". allysonschwartz.com. June 7, 2013. Retrieved September 12, 2013.
  100. 1 2 "chwartz Receives Endorsement Of Former Equality Pennsylvania President Adrian Shanker". allysonschwartz.com. February 12, 2015. Retrieved March 10, 2014.
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  109. ↑ https://billypenn.com/2014/11/01/obama-for-tom-wolf-in-philly-why-the-presidents-here-when-the-race-isnt-close/
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  111. ↑ Tom Wolf. "Rep. Frank Burns Says Wolf Is His Choice For Governor" . Retrieved November 15, 2014.
  112. ↑ "Wolf endorsed by Dinniman for governor during campaign visit" . Retrieved November 15, 2014.
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