Michigan gubernatorial election, 2014

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Michigan gubernatorial election, 2014
Flag of Michigan.svg
←  2010 November 4, 2014 2018  →
Turnout3,156,531
  Rick Snyder in 2013.jpg Mark Schauer (cropped).jpg
Nominee Rick Snyder Mark Schauer
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Brian Calley Lisa Brown
Popular vote1,605,0341,476,904
Percentage50.9%46.9%
Michigan Governor Election Results by County, 2014.svg
County Results
Snyder:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
Schauer:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%
Governor before election

Rick Snyder
Republican

Elected Governor

Rick Snyder
Republican

The Michigan gubernatorial election of 2014 took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor of Michigan, concurrently with the election of Michigan's Class II U.S. Senate seat, as well as other elections to the United States Senate in other states and elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections.

Governor of Michigan head of state and of government of the U.S. state of Michigan

The Governor of Michigan is the chief executive of the U.S. state of Michigan. The current governor is Gretchen Whitmer, a member of the Democratic Party, who was inaugurated on January 1, 2019, as the state's 49th governor. She is eligible for a second term under Michigan's term limits, which limit a governor to only two, four-year terms.

The three classes of United States Senators are made up of 33 or 34 Senate seats each. The purpose of the classes is to determine which Senate seats will be up for election in a given year. The three groups are staggered such that all senators in each of the groups are up for election every two years, rather than having all 100 seats up for election at once. For example, the 33 Senate seats of class 1 were up for election in 2018, the elections for the 33 seats of class 2 will take place in 2020, and the elections for the 34 seats of class 3 will be held in 2022.

Contents

Incumbent Republican Governor Rick Snyder ran for re-election to a second term in office. [1] Primary elections took place on August 5, 2014, in which Snyder and former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer were unopposed in the Republican and Democratic primaries, respectively. [2]

Republican Party (United States) Major political party in the United States

The Republican Party, also referred to as the GOP, is one of the two major political parties in the United States; the other is its historic rival, the Democratic Party.

Rick Snyder American politician and business executive

Richard Dale Snyder is an American politician, business executive, venture capitalist, lawyer and accountant who served as the 48th governor of Michigan from 2011 to 2019. He is a member of the Republican Party.

Mark Schauer American politician

Mark Hamilton Schauer is an American politician, member of the Democratic Party and former U.S. Representative for Michigan's 7th congressional district, serving from 2009 to 2011.

Snyder was considered vulnerable in his bid for a second term, as reflected in his low approval ratings. [3] [4] [5] [6] The consensus among The Cook Political Report , [7] Governing , [8] The Rothenberg Political Report , [9] and Sabato's Crystal Ball [10] was that the contest was a "tossup". Snyder was saddled with a negative approval rating, while his Democratic opponent, former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer, suffered from a lack of name recognition. [11] [12]

The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate, Governor's offices and the American Presidency. It was founded by political analyst Charlie Cook in 1984. Coverage of Senate and Gubernatorial races is headed up by Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy and coverage of House races is led by David Wasserman. Amy Walter serves as national editor.

<i>Governing</i> (magazine)

Governing is a national monthly magazine, edited and published since 1987 in Washington, D.C., whose subject area is state and local government in the United States. The magazine covers policy, politics and the management of government enterprises. Its subject areas include such issues as government finance, land use, economic development, the environment, technology and transportation.

Stuart Rothenberg is an American editor, publisher, and political analyst. He is best known for his biweekly political newsletter The Rothenberg Political Report, now known as Inside Elections. He was as also regular columnist at Roll Call and an occasional op-ed contributor to other publications, including The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The New York Times, and The Orlando Sentinel.

Snyder was re-elected with 50.9% of the vote.

Republican primary

Polling indicated significant opposition from Republican primary voters in Michigan towards Snyder's bid for re-election. [13] [14] [15] [16] This came in the midst of discussions by the Tea Party network regarding whether incumbent Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley should be replaced as Snyder's running mate. [13] [17] Snyder started running campaign ads in September 2013, immediately following the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference [18] and formally declared that he is seeking re-election in January 2014. [1]

Brian Calley politician

Brian Nelson Calley is an American politician who served as the 63rd lieutenant governor of Michigan, from 2011 to 2019. A member of the Republican Party, Calley served as a member of the Michigan House of Representatives from 2007 to 2011.

Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference

The Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference, also known as the Midwest Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference is a biennial United States Republican Party political conference held on Mackinac Island, Michigan.

In August 2013, Tea Party leader Wes Nakagiri announced that he would challenge Calley for the Republican nomination for Lieutenant Governor. [19] [20] [21] At the Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference (September 20–22, 2013), speculation reported by the media also included Todd Courser as a potential challenger to Calley. [22] At the Michigan Republican Party state convention, which took take place on August 23, 2014, incumbent Lieutenant Governor Brian Calley won renomination. [23]

Michigan Republican Party

The Michigan Republican Party is the state affiliate of the national Republican Party in Michigan. It is sometimes referred to as MIGOP, which simply means Michigan Grand Old Party. Former United States Ambassador to Slovakia Ronald Weiser is the most recent former Chairman of the Michigan Republican Party. Laura Cox was elected chairwoman in 2019.

On January 3, 2014, Mark McFarlin (who had originally declared his intention to run as a Democrat the previous November), announced that he would be running for the Republican nomination. [24] [25] He believed that his populist platform was too conservative for the Democratic ticket, and that he could get crossover support in the general election. However, he did not submit his filing petitions in time to qualify for the August primary ballot. [2]

Candidates

Declared

Failed to qualify

Declined

Polling

Results

Republican primary results [29]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rick Snyder617,720100
Total votes617,720100

Democratic primary

Michigan Democratic Party leadership rallied support behind former U.S. Representative Mark Schauer, who ran unopposed in the Democratic Party primary. Party Chairman Lon Johnson encouraged all other potential challengers to stay out of the race so as to avoid a costly and potentially bitter primary campaign. [30] Conservative Democrat and "birther" Mark McFarlin had announced on November 29, 2013, that he was running for the Democratic nomination for Governor, [24] but he switched parties on January 3, 2014, [25] leaving Schauer as the only candidate for the Democratic nomination.

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Polling

Results

Democratic primary results [29]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Mark Schauer513,263100
Total votes513,263100

Minor parties

Candidates

Libertarian Party

Green Party

  • Paul Homeniuk [45]
    Running mate: Candace Caveny, nominee for the State Senate in 2006, 2008 and 2010 and nominee for the State Board of Education in 2012

U.S. Taxpayers Party

  • Mark McFarlin, Independent write-in candidate for Governor in 2002 [45]
    Running mate: Richard Mendoza

Independents

Candidates

Declared

General election

Debates

Schauer and Snyder agreed to a town hall style debate that was held on October 12, 2014 on the campus of Wayne State University in Detroit. It was co-sponsored by the Detroit News, the Detroit Free Press and public TV station WTVS which televised the debate and sent the feed to other TV stations in Michigan as well as C-SPAN. [47] [48] The debate was made available for viewing online here. [49]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [50] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [51] Lean RNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [52] Tilt RNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [53] TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered		Sample
size		Margin of
error		Rick
Snyder (R)		Mark
Schauer (D)		OtherUndecided
Mitchell Research November 3, 20141,310± 2.7%48.1%47.4%3% [54] 2%
Mitchell Research November 2, 20141,224± 2.8%47.1%46.9%4% [55] 3%
Clarity Campaign Labs November 1–2, 20141,003± 3.08%45%45%—10%
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 2014914± 3.2%46%45%4% [56] 5%
47%47%—5%
EPIC-MRA October 26–28, 2014600± 4%45%43%3%9%
Mitchell Research October 27, 20141,159± 2.88%48%43%3.4% [57] 5%
Glengariff Group October 22–24, 2014600± 4%45.2%39.5%5%10.3%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20142,394± 3%44%45%1%11%
Rasmussen Reports October 20–22, 20141,000± 3%49%46%2%3%
Public Policy Polling October 20–21, 2014723± ?48%48%—4%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 19–20, 20141,032± ?41%44%—15%
Mitchell Research October 19, 2014919± 3.23%48%45.7%3.4% [58] 2.9%
EPIC-MRA October 17–19, 2014600± 4%47%39%3%11%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 12–14, 2014967± 3.16%44%42%—13%
Clarity Campaign Labs October 11–13, 20141,032± ?44%43%—13%
Mitchell Research October 12, 20141,340± 2.68%47%44%3% [54] 6%
Mitchell Research October 9, 20141,306± 2.71%47%46%4% [59] 3%
Glengariff Group October 2–4, 2014600± 4%44.9%37.1%3.4% [60] 14.7%
Public Policy Polling October 2–3, 2014654± 3.8%47%46%—7%
Marketing Resource Group September 30–October 1, 2014600± 4%45.7%40.5%4%9.9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 20142,560± 2%44%46%1%9%
Lake Research Partners September 27–30, 2014600± 4%44%43%—12%
Mitchell Research September 29, 20141,178± 2.86%46%42%5% [61] 8%
EPIC-MRA September 25–29, 2014600± 4%45%39%8%8%
Target-Insyght September 22–24, 2014616± 4%44%45%—11%
Public Policy Polling September 18–19, 2014852± 3.4%46%44%—10%
We Ask America September 18–19, 20141,182± 3%43%43%4% [62] 10%
Rasmussen Reports September 17–18, 2014750± 4%47%41%3%9%
Denno Research September 11–13, 2014600± 4%43.2%40%—16.8%
Mitchell Research September 10, 2014829± 3.4%46%41%7% [63] 6%
Suffolk September 6–10, 2014500± 4.4%43%45.2%3.8% [64] 8%
Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014687± 3.7%43%42%6% [65] 9%
46%44%—10%
Glengariff Group September 3–5, 2014600± 4%43.6%41.8%2.7%11.8%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 20142,897± 3%44%43%1%12%
Mitchell Research August 27, 20141,004± 3.09%47%46%—7%
EPIC-MRA August 22–25, 2014600± 4%43%45%—12%
Lake Research Partners August 6–11, 2014800± 3.5%46%38%—15%
Mitchell Research August 5, 2014626± 5%47%42%—11%
Rasmussen Reports July 28–29, 2014750± 4%45%42%5%8%
Marketing Resource Group July 26–30, 2014600± 4%44.6%44.3%—11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20143,812± 2.8%46%43%1%9%
Mitchell Research July 7–17, 2014600± 4%43%39%—17%
EPIC-MRA July 12–15, 2014600± 4%46%43%—11%
Denno Research July 9–11, 2014600± 4%43.3%34.7%—22%
NBC News/Marist July 7–10, 2014870± 3.3%46%44%1%9%
Public Policy Polling June 26–29, 2014578± 4.1%40%40%—20%
Mitchell Research June 6, 2014961± 3.16%45.8%40.9%—13.3%
Glengariff Group May 20–22, 2014600± 4.3%45%35.2%—19.8%
EPIC-MRA May 17–20, 2014600± 4%47%38%—15%
Hickman Analytics April 24–30, 2014502± 4.4%48%37%—15%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014875± 3.31%45%42%9%4%
Mitchell Research April 9, 20141,460± 2.56%49%37%—15%
Public Policy Polling April 3–6, 2014825± 3.4%43%39%—18%
Marketing Resource Group March 24–28, 2014600± 4.1%46.8%38.5%—14.2%
Denno Research March 9–10, 2014600± 4%42%39%—20%
Benenson Strategy Group March 4–7, 2014600± 4%45%42%—9%
Public Opinion Strategies March 2–4, 2014500± 4.4%45%36%—19%
Clarity Campaigns February 22–23, 2014859± 2.5540%47%—12%
Target Insyght February 18–20, 2014600± ?46.8%38%—15.2%
EPIC-MRA February 5–11, 2014600± 4%47%39%—14%
Harper Polling January 7–8, 20141,004± 3.09%47%35%—18%
Public Policy Polling December 5–8, 20131,034± 3%44%40%—16%
Denno Research November 12–14, 2013600± 4%44.5%31%—24.5%
Inside Michigan Politics October 29, 2013794± 4%36.4%33.6%—30%
MRG/Mitchell Research October 6–10, 2013600± 4%50%36%—14%
EPIC-MRA September 7–10, 2013600± 4%44%36%—20%
Denno Research July 23–24, 2013600± 4%43%37%—20%
Public Policy Polling May 30–June 2, 2013697± 3.7%38%42%—20%
EPIC-MRA May 11–15, 2013600± 4%39%39%—22%
EPIC-MRA April 13–16, 2013600± 4%38%39%—23%
Public Policy Polling March 2–4, 2013702± 3.7%36%40%—24%
Public Policy Polling December 13–16, 2012650± 3.8%39%44%—18%

Results

Michigan gubernatorial election, 2014 [66]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Republican Rick Snyder 1,607,399 50.92% -7.19%
Democratic Mark Schauer 1,479,05746.86%+6.96%
Libertarian Mary Buzuma35,7231.13%+0.44%
Taxpayers Mark McFarlin19,3680.61%-0.04%
Green Paul Homeniuk14,9340.47%-0.17%
Write-ins500.00%-
Majority128,3424.06%-14.15%
Turnout 3,156,531-2.16%
Republican hold Swing

See also

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References

  1. 1 2 3 Oosting, Jonathan (January 30, 2014). "It's official: Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder launching re-election campaign with statewide tour". MLive Media Group . Retrieved January 30, 2014.
  2. 1 2 3 "2014 Official Michigan Primary Candidate Listing". Miboecfr.nictusa.com. 2014-07-31. Retrieved 2014-08-04.
  3. ↑ "Handicapping the 2013–2014 Governors Races: The Tossups". Governing. July 18, 2013. Archived from the original on August 5, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
  4. ↑ "Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder raises $5M in 2013 for re-election bid". Daily Tribune. January 28, 2014. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
  5. ↑ "Which Governors Are Most Vulnerable in 2014?". Five Thirty Eight. April 8, 2013. Retrieved February 26, 2014.
  6. ↑ Woods, Ashley (November 8, 2013). "Michigan Governor Poll Shows Close Race Between Rick Snyder, Mark Schauer". Huffington Post . Retrieved November 12, 2013.
  7. ↑ "Ratings" . Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  8. ↑ Jacobson, Louis (July 18, 2013). "Handicapping the 2013–2014 Governors Races: The Tossups". Governing.com. Archived from the original on August 5, 2013. Retrieved July 25, 2013.
  9. ↑ "Ratings" . Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  10. ↑ "Ratings" . Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  11. ↑ Oosting, Jonathan (December 10, 2013). "Poll: Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder, Democrat Mark Schauer in close race ahead of 2014". MLive Media Group . Retrieved December 29, 2013.
  12. ↑ Brian Dickerson (August 28, 2014). "Brian Dickerson: Can Schauer avoid the Tomb of the Unknown Front-Runner?". Detroit Free Press . Retrieved August 28, 2014.
  13. 1 2 "Snyder's approval rating gets boost from bankruptcy, Medicaid decisions". July 31, 2013. Retrieved August 1, 2013.
  14. ↑ "Poll says Michigan Gov. Rick Snyder vulnerable in a Republican primary". September 3, 2013. Retrieved September 3, 2013.
  15. ↑ "Snyder losing GOP support since Medicaid expansion". September 4, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  16. ↑ "With Medicaid win, did Gov. Rick Snyder lose some Republicans? Tea party talks potential primary". September 5, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  17. ↑ "Lt. Gov. Brian Calley on tea party challenger: 'We have a competition for ideas' in Republican Party". August 26, 2013.
  18. ↑ "Snyder gets jump on 2014 election, launches TV, internet campaign ads". September 24, 2013.
  19. ↑ "Tea party leader Wes Nakagiri wants to replace Republican Lt. Gov. Brian Calley in 2014". August 26, 2013.
  20. ↑ "Tim Skubick: Tea Party could be 2014 election headache for Gov. Rick Snyder". August 27, 2013.
  21. ↑ "GOP poll says Livingston County's Nakagiri has shot at state's No. 2 post in 2014". September 5, 2013. Retrieved September 6, 2013.
  22. ↑ "Snyder gets top billing, but Calley in spotlight at Mackinac Republican Leadership Conference". September 21, 2013.
  23. ↑ Egan, Paul (August 23, 2014). "GOP chooses Calley over Nakagiri for lieutenant governor". Detroit Free Press. Retrieved August 23, 2014.
  24. 1 2 3 4 "Off the Record – November 29, 2013 – # 4323". Off the Record – WKAR-TV . November 29, 2013. Retrieved December 10, 2013.
  25. 1 2 3 4 Oosting, Jonathan (January 3, 2014). "Michigan Political Points: 'Birther' Democrat goes Republican for primary against Gov. Rick Snyder". MLive Media Group . Retrieved January 8, 2014.
  26. ↑ "Former Michigan GOP Senate Majority Leader Mike Bishop: 'I'm not running for governor'". June 24, 2013. Retrieved June 27, 2013.
  27. ↑ "Tea Party Looking For Its Gubernatorial Candidate". September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2013. (subscription required)
  28. ↑ "Tea Party Looking For Its Gubernatorial Candidate" (PDF). September 21, 2013. Retrieved September 22, 2013. (transcribed from original source)
  29. 1 2 "Official Election Results Primary Election August 5, 2014". Michigan Department of State. Retrieved August 25, 2014.
  30. 1 2 3 "Tim Skubick: Mark Schauer's announcement for governor seals the Democratic field". May 28, 2013.
  31. ↑ "Democrat Mark Schauer to challenge Gov. Rick Snyder in 2014". May 28, 2013.
  32. ↑ "Mark Schauer to announce Oakland County Clerk Lisa Brown as running mate". April 2, 2014.
  33. ↑ "Michigan Democrats rallying behind Mark Schauer for governor, with John Austin offering support". May 8, 2013. Retrieved May 2013.Check date values in: |accessdate= (help)
  34. ↑ Kathleen Gray (March 10, 2013). "Democratic nomination for governor is now Mark Schauer's for the taking". Detroit Free Press .
  35. ↑ "King Leads Schauer for Democratic Nomination". May 29, 2013. Retrieved June 4, 2013.
  36. ↑ Wittrock, Angela (March 20, 2013). "Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero won't run for governor, Senate or Congress in 2014". mlive.com . Retrieved March 21, 2013.
  37. ↑ Khalil AlHajal. "Tim Skubick: Mike Duggan's next step? Probably not a gubernatorial race". MLive.com. Retrieved 2014-01-08.
  38. ↑ Chad Selweski (January 17, 2013). "Mark Hackel preparing for marriage, not a run for governor". Macomb Daily . Retrieved February 22, 2013.
  39. ↑ "?".
  40. ↑ Bell, Dawson (November 10, 2012). "Several Democrats may challenge Snyder in 2014". Detroit Free Press . Retrieved November 17, 2012.
  41. ↑ Tim Skubick (April 15, 2013). "Tim Skubick: Bart Stupak's out... for now". Fox 2 News .
  42. ↑ "Gretchen Whitmer says she won't run for governor in 2014". Detroit Free Press . January 30, 2013.
  43. ↑ "Michigan Committee Statement of Organization". Michigan Secretary of State. May 17, 2014.
  44. ↑ "Libertarians hold party convention in Howell". Lansing State Journal. May 17, 2014. Archived from the original on May 25, 2014. Retrieved July 16, 2014.
  45. 1 2 "2014 Unofficial Michigan General Candidate Listing". Miboecfr.nictusa.com. 2014-07-22. Retrieved 2014-08-04.
  46. ↑ "Third party gubernatorial candidate Robin Sanders focuses on public safety". Current State on WKAR-FM . June 17, 2013. Retrieved November 1, 2013.
  47. ↑ "Michigan Governors Debate – Video – C-SPAN.org". C-SPAN.org. Retrieved November 16, 2014.
  48. ↑ http://www.michmab.com/tabid/97/mid/663/newsid663/190/dnnprintmode/true/Default.aspx?SkinSrc=%5BG%5DSkins%2F_default%2FNo+Skin&ContainerSrc=%5BG%5DContainers%2F_default%2FNo+Container
  49. ↑ "2014 Gubernatorial Town Hall". YouTube. Retrieved November 16, 2014.
  50. ↑ "2014 Governor Race Ratings for November 3, 2014". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved October 1, 2018.
  51. ↑ "The Crystal Ball's Final 2014 Picks". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved October 1, 2018.
  52. ↑ "2014 Gubernatorial Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved October 1, 2018.
  53. ↑ "2014 Elections Map - 2014 Governors Races". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved October 1, 2018.
  54. 1 2 Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  55. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  56. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 3%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 0%
  57. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 0.4%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  58. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1.4%
  59. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 1%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 2%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  60. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 1.7%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1.2%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 0.5%
  61. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) <1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  62. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 2%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 1%
  63. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 4%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  64. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 1.8%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1.2%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 0.8%
  65. ↑ Mary Buzuma (L) 3%, Paul Homeniuk (G) 1%, Mark McFarlin (TP) 2%
  66. ↑ "Election Results – General Election – November 4, 2014". Michigan Department of State. November 24, 2014. Archived from the original on November 6, 2014. Retrieved November 29, 2014.
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