Florida gubernatorial election, 2014

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Florida gubernatorial election, 2014
Flag of Florida.svg
  2010 November 4, 2014 (2014-November-04) 2018  
  Rick Scott (cropped).jpg Charlie Crist official portrait crop.jpg
Nominee Rick Scott Charlie Crist
Party Republican Democratic
Running mate Carlos López-Cantera Annette Taddeo-Goldstein
Popular vote2,865,3432,801,198
Percentage48.1%47.1%

Florida Governor Election Results by County, 2014.svg
County Results

Scott:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Crist:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%

Governor before election

Rick Scott
Republican

Elected Governor

Rick Scott
Republican

The 2014 Florida gubernatorial election took place on November 4, 2014, to elect the Governor and Lieutenant Governor of Florida, concurrently with elections to the United States Senate in other states, elections to the United States House of Representatives, and various state and local elections.

Lieutenant Governor of Florida position

The Lieutenant Governor of Florida is a statewide elected office in the government of the U.S. state of Florida. According to the Florida Constitution, the lieutenant governor is elected to a four-year term congruent with that of the Governor of Florida, and succeeds to the office of governor if it becomes vacant. The incumbent is Jeanette Núñez, who took office on January 8, 2019.

Contents

The incumbent Republican, [1] Rick Scott, ran for reelection. The Democratic nominee was former Governor Charlie Crist. Crist was elected governor as a Republican in 2006 but did not run for re-election in 2010, instead running for the U.S. Senate. In April 2010 and while still in office, he left the Republican Party to run as an Independent instead. He was defeated in the general election by Republican nominee Marco Rubio. In December 2012, Crist joined the Democratic Party. With the loss, Crist became the first person in Florida history to lose statewide elections as a Democrat, Republican, and Independent. Libertarian nominee Adrian Wyllie and several candidates with no party affiliation also ran.

Republican Party of Florida

The Republican Party of Florida (RPOF) is the official organization for Republicans in the state of Florida.

The Florida Democratic Party (FDP) is the state branch of the United States Democratic Party in the state of Florida, headquartered in Tallahassee.

Charlie Crist politician

Charles Joseph Crist Jr. is an American attorney and politician serving as the U.S. Representative from Florida's 13th congressional district since 2017. He previously served as the 44th Governor of Florida, from 2007 to 2011.

The consensus among The Cook Political Report , [2] Governing , [3] The Rothenberg Political Report , [4] Sabato's Crystal Ball , [5] Daily Kos Elections, [6] and others [7] [8] [9] was that the contest was a tossup.

The Cook Political Report is an independent, non-partisan online newsletter that analyzes elections and campaigns for the United States House of Representatives, the United States Senate, Governor's offices and the American Presidency. It was founded by political analyst Charlie Cook in 1984. Coverage of Senate and Gubernatorial races is headed up by Senior Editor Jennifer Duffy and coverage of House races is led by David Wasserman. Amy Walter serves as national editor.

<i>Governing</i> (magazine)

Governing is a national monthly magazine, edited and published since 1987 in Washington, D.C., whose subject area is state and local government in the United States. The magazine covers policy, politics and the management of government enterprises. Its subject areas include such issues as government finance, land use, economic development, the environment, technology and transportation.

Stuart Rothenberg is an American editor, publisher, and political analyst. He is best known for his biweekly political newsletter The Rothenberg Political Report, now known as Inside Elections. He was as also regular columnist at Roll Call and an occasional op-ed contributor to other publications, including The Wall Street Journal, The Washington Post, The New York Times, and The Orlando Sentinel.

Republican primary

Candidates

Declared

Rick Scott United States Senator from Florida

Richard Lynn Scott is an American businessman and politician, serving as the junior United States senator from Florida since 2019. He previously served as the 45th governor of Florida from 2011 to 2019.

Withdrew

  • Timothy Devine [11]

Declined

Jeff Atwater American politician

Jeffrey Hardee Atwater is an American financier who served as the 3rd Chief Financial Officer of Florida from 2011 to 2017, and currently serves as Vice President for Strategic Initiatives and Chief Financial Officer at Florida Atlantic University. He is a member of the Republican Party.

Chief Financial Officer of Florida

The Chief Financial Officer of Florida is an elected statewide constitutional officer of Florida. The office was created in 2002 following the 1998 reforms of the Florida Cabinet. The CFO is a combination of the former offices of Comptroller and Treasurer/Insurance Commissioner/Fire Marshal. The office heads the Florida Department of Financial Services and is responsible for overseeing the state's finances, collecting revenue, paying state bills, auditing state agencies, regulating cemeteries and funerals, and handling fires and arsons. In addition, the CFO has administrative oversight over the offices which handles banking and insurance regulation. The CFO is a member of the Cabinet.

Pam Bondi American lawyer and politician

Pamela Jo Bondi is an American attorney and politician. A Republican, she served as the 37th Attorney General of Florida from 2011 to 2019.

Endorsements

Rick Scott
Elected Officials
Aaron Bean American politician

Aaron Bean is an American politician who is a Republican member of the Florida State Senate, representing the 4th District, which includes all of Nassau County and parts of Duval County, since 2012. He previous served in the Florida House of Representatives, representing the 12th District from 2000 to 2008.

Jeb Bush American politician, former Governor of Florida

John Ellis "Jeb" Bush is an American politician who served as the 43rd Governor of Florida from 1999 to 2007. Bush, who grew up in Houston, is the second son of former President George H. W. Bush and former First Lady Barbara Bush, and a younger brother of former President George W. Bush. He graduated from Phillips Academy in Andover, Massachusetts, and attended the University of Texas, where he earned a degree in Latin American affairs. In 1980, he moved to Florida and pursued a career in real estate development, and in 1986 became Florida's Secretary of Commerce until 1988. At that time, he joined his father's successful campaign for the Presidency.

Bill McCollum Florida Attorney General, former Republican

Ira William "Bill" McCollum Jr. is an American lawyer, politician, and member of the Republican Party. He was a member of the United States House of Representatives from 1981 to 2001, representing Florida's 5th congressional district, which was later redistricted to the 8th congressional district in 1993. As a member of the House, McCollum rose to become Vice Chairman of the House Republican Conference, the fifth-highest ranking position in the House Republican leadership. He voted to impeach President Bill Clinton and subsequently took a leadership role in managing Clinton's trial in the Senate, which ended in acquittal.

Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott
Someone
else
OtherUndecided
Public Policy Polling March 15–18, 2013326± 5.4%42%43%14%
Public Policy Polling January 11–13, 2013436± 4.7%50%40%10%
Quinnipiac December 11–17, 20121,261± 2.8%30%53%16%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011472± 4.5%53%37%10%

Results

Republican primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Republican Rick Scott831,88787.65%
Republican Elizabeth Cuevas-Neunder100,49610.59%
Republican Yinka Adeshina16,7611.77%
Total votes949,144100%

Democratic primary

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Declined

Endorsements

Charlie Crist
Elected Officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Nan Rich
Elected Officials
Organizations
Newspapers

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Charlie
Crist
Buddy
Dyer
Dan
Gelber
Pam
Iorio
Anthony Shriver
Kennedy
Jimmy
Morales
Bill
Nelson
Nan
Rich
Alex
Sink
Rod
Smith
OtherUnde-
cided
Public Policy Polling January 16–21, 2014243± 6.3%58%16%25%
Fabrizio McLaughlin November 24–26, 2013380± ?45%32%4%19%
Quinnipiac November 12–17, 20131,646± 2.4%60%12%2%26%
Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013337± ?59%16%25%
Public Policy Polling March 15–18, 2013500± 5.4%50%9%3%21%16%
Hamilton Strategies Jan. 30 – February 4, 2013600± 4%43%1%14%5%37%
Public Policy Polling January 11–13, 2013401± 4.9%52%4%13%1%18%12%
SEA Polling [ dead link ]September 2012600± 4%29%3%8%2%1%31%26%
St. Pete Polls September 8, 20121,689± 2.4%60.9%7%3.5%25.1%3.4%

Results

Democratic primary results [31]
PartyCandidateVotes%
Democratic Charlie Crist623,00174.36%
Democratic Nan Rich214,79525.64%
Total votes837,796100%

Libertarian Party

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

  • John Wayne Smith, activist and perennial candidate [69]

Declined

Independents

Candidates

Declared

Withdrew

Disqualified

  • Joe Allen, writer [73]

Write-in candidates

  • Running mate: Bob Wirengard [75]
  • Running mate: Diane Smith [76]
  • Running mate: Georgianna G. Harris [77]
  • Running mate: Juanita Lockett [78]
  • Running mate: Jeffery Lunsford
  • Running mate: Christine Timmon [79]

General election

Candidates

The following candidates will appear on the ballot for the general election: [80]

  • Running mate: Greg Roe, insurance executive [83]
  • Running mate: Jose Augusto Matos
  • Running mate: Lateresa A. Jones

Endorsements

Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein
Elected Officials
Organizations
Newspapers
Rick Scott/Carlos Lopez-Cantera
Elected Officials
Other individuals
Organizations
Newspapers
Adrian Wyllie/Greg Roe
Elected Officials
Organizations
  • Boomers Against Elder Abuse [119]
Other individuals
  • Francisco Rodriguez, Candidate for House District 83 [120]
Declined to endorse
Elected Officials
Newspapers

Campaigning

As of early June 2014, Scott had spent almost $13m since March on television adverts attacking Charlie Crist, who then appeared the likely Democratic nominee. Although the ads resulted in a tightening of the race, this came about by decreasing Crist's favorability ratings. By contrast, Scott's favorability ratings did not increase. [124] By late September, Scott's television ad spending had exceeded $35m [125] [126] and in mid-October it reached $56.5 million, compared to $26.5 million by Crist. On October 22 it was reported that Scott's total spending had exceeded $83 million and he announced that, having previously said he would not do so, he would be investing his own money into the campaign, speculated to be as much as $22 million. [127]

Crist hoped to draw strong support from Florida's more than 1.6 million registered black voters, an effort that was challenging with regards to his previous political career as a Republican. A poll conducted in September 2014 by Quinnipiac University revealed his support among black voters was at 72 percent against Scott, which was below the 90 percent analysts believed he needed to win. [128]

Scott and Crist met in a debate on October 15, held by the Florida Press Association at Broward College. [129] The debate required candidates to receive at least 15% support in major polls to be included. This was allegedly increased from 10% after Wyllie met the initial criteria, [130] but the Miami Herald reported that the threshold had been 15% since 2013. [131] The decision has been criticised as "suppressing choice" [132] and the Wyllie campaign has filed a lawsuit to be included in the debate. [133] U.S. District Judge James I. Cohn dismissed the lawsuit. [134] At this debate, Scott refused to take the stage for seven minutes because Crist had a small electric fan under his lectern. The incident was dubbed "fangate" by media sources such as Politico . [135]

Predictions

SourceRankingAs of
The Cook Political Report [136] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Sabato's Crystal Ball [137] Lean DNovember 3, 2014
Rothenberg Political Report [138] TossupNovember 3, 2014
Real Clear Politics [139] TossupNovember 3, 2014

Polling

Poll sourceDate(s)
administered
Sample
size
Margin of
error
Rick
Scott (R)
Charlie
Crist (D)
Adrian
Wyllie (L)
OtherUndecided
St. Pete Polls November 2, 20141,834± 2.3%45.5%45.5%6.3%2.7%
Public Policy Polling November 1–2, 20141,198± 2.8%44%44%6%6%
46%47%7%
0ptimus October 30–November 2, 20142,559± 2%42.8%41.3%10.1%5.8%
Quinnipiac University October 28–November 2, 2014817± 3.4%41%42%7%1%9%
42%44%3%11%
Zogby Analytics October 28–31, 2014688± 3.8%38%45%8%9%
YouGov October 25–31, 20141,795± 2.7%41%41%5%13%
SEA Polling October 29–30, 20141,300± 2.7%46%44%4%6%
SEA Polling October 28–29, 2014800± 3.5%45%43%5%7%
Cherry Communications October 27–29, 2014508± 4%44%39%4%13%
University of Florida October 24–28, 2014850± 3.1%36%36%6%20%
Quinnipiac University October 22–27, 2014817± 3.4%40%43%8%9%
42%45%2%11%
0ptimus October 20–26, 20144,893± 1.4%41.9%39.4%11.9%6.8%
Gravis Marketing October 22–24, 2014861± 3%42%44%14%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov October 16–23, 20145,422± 2%46%45%2%7%
Quinnipiac University October 14–20, 2014984± 3.1%42%42%7%1%8%
44%44%2%11%
Saint Leo University October 16–19, 2014500± 4.9%40%43%8%9%
45%45%10%
0ptimus October 13–19, 20144,701± 1.5%41.1%40.2%12%6.7%
St. Pete Polls October 17, 20141,855± 2.3%43.9%45.3%8.4%2.5%
Rasmussen Reports October 15–17, 20141,114± 3%47%47%2%4%
SurveyUSA October 10–13, 2014566± 4.2%41%45%7%7%
CNN/ORC October 9–13, 2014610 LV± 4%44%44%9%4%
850 RV± 3.5%40%42%10%8%
Gravis Marketing October 11–12, 20141,023± 3%44%42%14%
University of Florida October 7–12, 2014781± 3.2%40%40%6%7%
0ptimus October 6–12, 20146,384± 1.3%39.4%40.5%12.5%7.6%
St. Pete Polls October 8–11, 20143,128± 1.8%45%44%8%3%
University of North Florida September 29–October 8, 2014471± 4.74%38%43%10%<1%9%
42%47%2%9%
SurveyUSA October 2–6, 2014594± 4.1%42%44%6%8%
0ptimus September 29–October 5, 20146,494± 1.2%39.1%40.2%13.1%7.6%
Public Policy Polling October 3–4, 20141,161± 2.9%43%45%8%5%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov September 20–October 1, 20145,689± 2%47%44%1%8%
SurveyUSA September 26–29, 2014588± 4.1%40%46%8%6%
0ptimus September 22–28, 20143,356± 1.7%40.1%41.1%11.1%7.7%
SurveyUSA September 19–22, 2014588± 4.1%43%42%4%11%
Quinnipiac University September 17–22, 2014991± 3.1%44%42%8%1%5%
46%44%2%7%
Cherry Communications September 18–21, 2014813± 3.5%43%39%4%5%7%
0ptimus September 15–21, 20146,079± 1.3%40.7%40.6%11.1%7.5%
SurveyUSA September 12–15, 2014571± 4.2%44%39%7%9%
0ptimus September 8–14, 20143,660± 1.7%40.8%40.3%8.1%10.8%
Rasmussen Reports September 8–10, 20141,000± 3%40%42%18%
SurveyUSA September 5–8, 2014576± 4.2%45%44%3%8%
Associated Industries September 4–7, 20141,000± 3.1%47%41%12%
AIF Political Operations September 4–7, 20141,000± 3.1%43%40%5%12%
46%40%14%
Public Policy Polling September 4–7, 2014818± 3.8%39%42%8%11%
41%44%14%
0ptimus September 1–7, 20144,386± 1.5%41.7%40.3%7.7%10.3%
Mason-Dixon September 2–4, 2014625± 4%43%41%4%1%11%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov August 18–September 2, 20145,962± 2%46%43%4%8%
University of Florida August 27–31, 2014814± 3.4%40.93%35.74%6.32%17.01%
43.71%37.57%18.72%
SurveyUSA August 27–28, 2014580± 4.2%43%45%4%7%
Gravis Marketing August 14–24, 2014859± 4%37%37%26%
0ptimus August 18–24, 20149,333± 1%41.6%38.6%9%10.7%
SurveyUSA August 15–18, 2014564± 4.2%44%41%4%8%4%
0ptimus August 11–17, 201412,812± 0.9%43.5%41.1%15.4%
Cherry Communications August 10–13, 2014627± 4%41%35%4%20%
44%41%15%
SurveyUSA July 31–August 4, 2014576± 4.2%45%43%8%4%
0ptimus July 28–August 3, 20144,714± 1.5%45.1%43.7%11.3%
Rasmussen Reports July 29–30, 2014900± 3%42%41%8%9%
CBS News/NYT/YouGov July 5–24, 20146,873± ?48%43%4%5%
Quinnipiac University July 17–21, 20141,251± 2.8%37%39%9%1%15%
40%45%2%12%
SurveyUSA July 17–21, 2014564± 4.2%40%46%8%6%
Hart/North Star June 26–July 6, 20141,202± 3.5%47%40%13%
SurveyUSA June 30–July 4, 2014558± 4.2%45%43%7%5%
Gravis Marketing June 20–23, 20141,232± 3%41%39%6%15%
SurveyUSA June 20–23, 2014541± 4.3%42%41%8%8%
Cherry Communications June 11, 2014806± 3.5%41%38%4%17%
SurveyUSA June 5–10, 2014556± 4.2%40%44%8%8%
Public Policy Polling June 6–9, 2014672± 3.8%42%42%16%
Saint Leo University May 28–June 4, 2014500± 5%43%41%16%
SurveyUSA May 20–22, 2014531± 4.3%42%40%9%8%
SurveyUSA May 9–12, 2014554± 4.2%41%44%7%8%
McLaughlin & Associates May 4–6, 2014800± 3.4%42%38%20%
Quinnipiac University April 23–28, 20141,413± 2.6%38%48%2%12%
Gravis Marketing April 23–25, 2014907± 3%44%43%5%9%
SurveyUSA April 2014?± 4.3%41%44%6%8%
Rasmussen Reports April 21–22, 2014750± 4%39%45%6%10%
Mason-Dixon April 15–17 & 21–22, 2014700± 3.8%42%42%4%12%
Magellan Strategies April 14–15, 2014868± 3.33%45%43%5%7%
SurveyUSA April 10–14, 2014502± 4.5%41%46%7%6%
Public Policy Polling April 1–3, 2014814± 3.1%42%49%10%
Sunshine State News March 31–April 3, 2014800± 3.46%45%44%1%10%
Saint Leo University March 16–19, 2014500± 5.0%39%43%18%
University of North Florida March 6–16, 2014507± 4.35%33%34%17%17%
University of Florida January 27–February 1, 20141,006± 3%40%47%13%
Gravis Marketing January 30–31, 2014808± 4%44%47%3%6%
Quinnipiac University January 22–27, 20141,565± 2.5%38%46%16%
Hamilton Strategies January 14–20, 2014700± 3.8%44%49%7%
Public Policy Polling January 16–21, 2014591± 4%41%43%15%
Saint Leo University December 1–8, 2013400± 5%34%46%20%
Fabrizio McLaughlin November 24–26, 20131,000± 3.1%45%49%6%
Quinnipiac University November 12–17, 20131,646± 2.4%40%47%2%12%
Gravis Marketing November 8–10, 2013932± 3%36%46%19%
University of North Florida September 30–October 8, 2013526± 4.27%40%44%2%14%
Public Policy Polling September 27–29, 2013579± 4.1%38%50%12%
St. Pete Polls August 1–2, 20133,034± 1.8%29.5%40.1%8.7%21.7%
Quinnipiac University June 11–16, 20131,176± 2.9%37%47%2%12%
Public Policy Polling March 15–18, 2013500± 5.4%40%52%8%
Quinnipiac University March 13–18, 20131,000± 3.1%34%50%1%15%
Hamilton Strategies January 30–February 4, 2013600± 4%41%41%7%
Public Policy Polling January 11–13, 2013501± 4.4%39%53%8%
Public Policy Polling August 31–September 2, 20121,548± 2.5%42%45%13%
Public Policy Polling July 26–29, 2012871± 3.3%41%44%15%
Public Policy Polling November 28–December 1, 2011700± 3.7%32%55%13%
Public Policy Polling September 22–25, 2011476± 4.5%38%51%11%
Public Policy Polling June 16–19, 2011848± 3.4%34%56%10%

Results

Florida General Election 2014 [140]
PartyCandidateVotes%±
Republican Rick Scott/Carlos López-Cantera 2,865,343 48.1% -0.77%
Democratic Charlie Crist/Annette Taddeo-Goldstein2,801,19847.1%-0.62%
Libertarian Adrian Wyllie/Greg Roe223,3563.8%+3.8%
Independent Glenn Burkett/Jose Augusto Matos41,3410.7%
Independent Farid Khavari/Lateresa A. Jones20,1860.3%+0.16%
Plurality64,1451.07%-0.15%
Turnout 5,951,561
Republican hold

See also

Related Research Articles

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