United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2012

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2012

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Class 1 Senator  →
Turnout	59.4% (voting eligible) [1]
Nominee Bob Casey Jr. Tom Smith Party Democratic Republican Popular vote 3,021,364 2,509,132 Percentage 53.7% 44.6%
County Results Casey:     40-50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%     80–90% Smith:     40–50%     50–60%     60–70%     70–80%
U.S. Senator before election Bob Casey, Jr. Democratic Elected U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. Democratic

Elections in Pennsylvania
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v t e

The 2012 United States Senate election in Pennsylvania was held on November 6, 2012, alongside a presidential election, other elections to the United States Senate in other states, as well as elections to the United States House of Representatives and various state and local elections. Incumbent Democratic U.S. Senator Bob Casey, Jr. ran for and won re-election to a second term, defeating Republican nominee Tom Smith, and Libertarian nominee Rayburn Smith.

The requisite primary elections occurred on April 24, 2012, during which the Republicans and Democrats selected nominees for the general election. The Republican primary was a five-way contest. Tom Smith, the eventual nominee, faced David A. Christian, Sam Rohrer, Marc Scaringi, and Steve Welch. The Democratic primary was not heavily contested. Incumbent Bob Casey, Jr., defeated Joseph Vodvarka by a wide margin. The Libertarian Party nominated Rayburn Smith.

Casey led most pre-election polls and eventually defeated his opponents to win re-election to a second term in the U.S. Senate. In so doing, Casey became the first Democratic Senator from Pennsylvania elected to a second term in 50 years.

Background

On November 7, 2006, Bob Casey, Jr., the State Treasurer and son of former Governor Bob Casey, Sr., defeated two-term incumbent Republican Senator Rick Santorum with 58.64% of votes cast. Santorum's margin of defeat was the largest for an incumbent Republican Senator in Pennsylvania history; it was also the first time a Democrat was elected to a full Senate term from Pennsylvania since Joseph Clark was re-elected in 1962. The 2012 election would also become the first time a Democrat won re-election to the U.S. Senate from Pennsylvania since the 1962 election.

Pennsylvania is considered a battleground state; since the 1970 election of Governor Milton Shapp, partisan control of the governorship has alternated between Democratic and Republican. Additionally, Republicans have controlled the State Senate since 1995, while Democrats assumed control of the State House following the 2006 election, only to lose control in the 2010 election. Democrats had won the state in every presidential election from 1992 to 2012.

Democratic primary

Candidates

• Bob Casey, Jr., incumbent U.S. Senator ^{[2] [3]}
• Joseph Vodvarka, spring maker ^[4]

Results

Democratic primary results ^[5]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Democratic	Bob Casey, Jr.(Incumbent)	565,488	80.9
	Democratic	Joseph Vodvarka	133,683	19.1
Total votes			699,171	100

Republican primary

Candidates

On ballot

• David Christian, businessman and veterans' advocate ^[6]
• John Kensinger, pharmacist ^[7]
• Sam Rohrer, former state representative ^[8]
• Marc Scaringi, attorney and former legislative aide to Rick Santorum ^[3]
• Tom Smith, farmer and businessman ^[9]
• Steve Welch, businessman ^[10]

Withdrew

• Tim Burns, businessman and unsuccessful candidate for the 12th district in the 2010 special and general elections ^[11]
• Laureen Cummings, Tea Party activist ^[12]
• John Vernon, retired Army colonel ^[13]

Declined

• Jake Corman, state senator ^[14]
• Charlie Dent, U.S. representative ^[15]
• Jim Gerlach, U.S. representative ^{[3] [16]}
• Keith Loiselle, businessman ^[17]
• Glen Meakem, radio host ^{[3] [16]}
• Pat Meehan, U.S. representative ^[18]
• Tim Murphy, U.S. representative ^[19]
• Dominic Pileggi, State Senate Majority Leader ^[20]
• Mark Schweiker, former Pennsylvania governor ^[21]
• Bill Shuster, U.S. representative ^[15]
• Mike Turzai, State House Majority Leader ^[3]
• Kim Ward, state senator ^[22]
• Joe Watkins, MSNBC contributor ^[17]

Campaign

In January 2012, the Pennsylvania Republican Party officially endorsed Steve Welch for U.S. Senate. ^[23] The largest state newspaper, Philadelphia Inquirer, also endorsed Welch. He was also endorsed by the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette. However, he was criticized for changing his party registration. In 2008, he became a Democrat so he could vote for Barack Obama in the 2008 Democratic presidential primary. In 2006, he donated money to Democratic Congressman Joe Sestak.

Tom Smith spent nearly $3 million in the first three months of 2012, outspending Welch 2-1. Smith has spent a wide majority of it in television advertising. ^[24] Like Welch, Smith has also registered as a Democrat. However, unlike Welch who was a registered Democrat for only a few years, Smith was a Democrat for 42 years. ^[25] Smith was a Plumcreek Township Supervisor and allegedly raised taxes 9 times (including the real estate, earned income, and per capita taxes). ^[26] Over the past decade, he donated over $185,000 to Republican candidates. The only Democrat he donated to was Congressman Jason Altmire, a moderate Blue Dog. ^[27]

Sam Rohrer, a former State Representative, ran for statewide office again after losing to State Attorney General Tom Corbett in the 2010 Republican primary for Pennsylvania Governor. Rohrer was endorsed by various tea party organizations, as well as U.S. Congresswoman Michele Bachmann and 2012 Republican presidential candidate Herman Cain. ^[28]

David Christian, a Vietnam war veteran and businessman, also ran. He previously ran for congress in 1984 and 1986. He was endorsed by the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. ^[29]

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Tim Burns	David Christian	Laureen Cummings	John Kensinger	Sam Rohrer	Marc Scaringi	Tom Smith	John Vernon	Steve Welch	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	400	±4.9%	15%	—	2%	—	25%	0%	3%	1%	1%	8%	43%
Tribune-Review/WPXI-TV	February 2–6, 2012	500	±4.4%	—	1%	—	3%	10%	1%	8%	—	1%	—	72%
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	564	±4.1%	—	10%	—	—	16%	8%	12%	—	5%	—	48%
Franklin & Marshall College	March 20–25, 2012	505	±4.2%	—	1%	—	—	7%	1%	9%	—	1%	—	81%

Results

Republican primary results ^{[5] [30]}

Party		Candidate	Votes	%
	Republican	Tom Smith	299,726	39.5
	Republican	Sam Rohrer	169,118	22.3
	Republican	Steve Welch	158,181	20.9
	Republican	David Christian	79,581	10.5
	Republican	Marc Scaringi	51,908	6.8
Total votes			758,514	100

General election

Candidates

• Bob Casey, Jr. (Democratic), incumbent U.S. Senator
• Tom Smith (Republican), businessman
• Rayburn Smith (Libertarian) ^[31]

Debates

• Complete video of debate, 6ABC, October 16, 2012
• Complete video and transcript of debate, C-SPAN, October 26, 2012

Fundraising

Candidate (party)	Receipts	Disbursements	Cash on hand	Debt
Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	$7,664,686	$2,754,060	$6,226,560	$5,261
Tom Smith (R)	$7,954,211	$5,673,558	$2,280,655	$6,475,000
Source: Federal Election Commission [32] [33]

Top contributors

^[34]

Bob Casey, Jr.	Contribution	Tom Smith	Contribution
Comcast Corp	$95,175	Rosebud Mining	$26,000
Blank Rome LLP	$65,500	Tj Smith Trucking	$15,000
Reed Smith LLP	$61,800	Penneco Oil Co	$12,500
Cozen O'Connor	$44,975	Transportation Equipment Supply Co	$11,500
University of Pennsylvania	$44,450	R&S Machine Co	$10,250
Buchanan, Ingersoll & Rooney	$43,098	Citizens United	$10,000
K&L Gates	$42,650	Mepco LLC	$10,000
Pride Mobility Products	$40,250	Snyder Armclar Gas	$10,000
Blue Cross & Blue Shield	$39,950	Stitt Management	$10,000
National Amusements Inc.	$39,250	Penn Waste	$10,000

Top industries

^[35]

Bob Casey, Jr.	Contribution	Tom Smith	Contribution
Lawyers/Law Firms	$2,095,026	Retired	$104,725
Lobbyists	$407,472	Mining	$87,800
Real Estate	$389,559	Republican/Conservative	$43,500
Health Professionals	$336,023	Oil & Gas	$40,750
Financial Institutions	$335,998	Misc Business	$35,300
Retired	$329,132	Financial Institutions	$25,500
Pharmaceuticals/Health Products	$313,597	Misc Manufacturing & Distributing	$19,650
Hospitals/Nursing Homes	$296,737	Leadership PACs	$19,000
Entertainment Industry	$237,825	Misc Energy	$18,000
Insurance	$221,750	Trucking	$15,250

Predictions

Source	Ranking	As of
The Cook Political Report [36]	Lean D	November 1, 2012
Sabato's Crystal Ball [37]	Lean D	November 5, 2012
Rothenberg Political Report [38]	Likely D	November 2, 2012
Real Clear Politics [39]	Lean D	November 5, 2012

Polling

Poll source	Date(s) administered	Sample size	Margin of error	Bob Casey, Jr. (D)	Tom Smith (R)	Other	Undecided
Public Policy Polling	November 17–20, 2011	500	±4.4%	48%	32%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling	March 8–11, 2012	689	±3.7%	49%	31%	—	20%
Public Policy Polling	May 17–20, 2012	671	±3.8%	49%	33%	—	19%
Rasmussen Reports	May 21, 2012	500	±4.5%	48%	41%	3%	7%
Franklin & Marshall College	May 29 – June 4, 2012	412	±4.8%	42%	21%	2%	35%
Quinnipiac	June 5–10, 2012	997	±3.1%	51%	32%	1%	14%
Quinnipiac	June 19–25, 2012	1,252	±2.8%	49%	32%	1%	17%
We Ask America	July 9–10, 2012	1,227	±2.8%	53%	39%	—	8%
Rasmussen Reports	July 18, 2012	500	±4.5%	49%	38%	—	9%
Public Policy Polling	July 21–23, 2012	758	±3.6%	46%	36%	—	18%
Quinnipiac	July 24–30, 2012	1,168	±2.9%	55%	37%	—	8%
Franklin & Marshall College	August 7–12, 2012	681	±3.8%	35%	23%	2%	39%
MCall/Muhlenburg Poll	August 20–22, 2012	422	±5%	49%	30%	—	18%	Philadelphia Inquirer	August 21–23, 2012	601	±4%	53%	34%	—	13%
Muhlenberg College	September 10–16, 2012	640	±4%	45%	33%	5%	18%	Rasmussen Reports	September 19, 2012	500	±4.5%	49%	42%	2%	7%
Franklin & Marshall	September 18–23, 2012	392	±4.9%	48%	38%	—	8%
Quinnipiac/CBS/NYT Poll	September 18–24, 2012	1,180	±3%	49%	43%	—	—
Muhlenberg College	September 22–26, 2012	427	±5%	44%	36%	7%	13%
Siena Poll	October 1–5, 2012	545	±4.2%	44%	35%	—	16%
Susquehanna Polling	October 4–6, 2012	725	±3.7%	46%	44%	—	9%
Philadelphia Inquirer	October 4–8, 2012	600	±4%	48%	38%	—	14%
Rasmussen Reports	October 9, 2012	500	±4.5%	49%	45%	1%	5%
Susquehanna Polling	October 11–13, 2012	1,376	±2.6%	46%	48%	1%	5%
Muhlenberg	October 10–14, 2012	438	±5%	41%	39%	1%	18%
Public Policy Polling	October 12–14, 2012	500	±4.4%	50%	39%	—	11%
Quinnipiac	October 12–14, 2012	1,519	±2.5%	48%	45%	—	7%
Angus Reid Public Opinion [ permanent dead link ]	October 18–20, 2012	559	±4.2%	51%	45%	4%	—
Muhlenberg College Poll [ permanent dead link ]	October 17–21, 2012	444	±5%	45%	37%	2%	16%
Pharos Research	October 19–21, 2012	760	±3.6%	52%	42%	—	6%
Rasmussen Reports	October 24, 2012	500	±4.5%	46%	45%	—	9%
Philadelphia Inquirer	October 23–25, 2012	600	±4%	49%	42%	—	9%
Franklin & Marshall College	October 23–28, 2012	547	±4.2%	46%	36%	4%	13%
Tribune-Review/Susquehanna	October 29–31, 2012	800	±3.4%	46%	45%	2%	8%
Muhlenberg College/Morning Call	November 1–3, 2012	430	±5%	48%	42%	2%	9%
Public Policy Polling	November 2–3, 2012	790	±3.5%	52%	44%	—	3%
Angus Reid Public Opinion	November 2–4, 2012	507	±4.2%	53%	46%	1%	—

Results

Despite many predictions of a close race, the election was not close. Casey, the incumbent, despite being seen as somewhat vulnerable, went into election night with most analysts thinking he would win. Casey would win by more than expected. This can be traced to several factors. Casey trounced Smith in Philadelphia County home of Philadelphia. Casey also won the surrounding collar counties of, Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery, which are seen as vital in state wide elections in Pennsylvania. Casey also performed well in Allegheny County home of Pittsburgh. Casey also performed well in Erie. Casey also performed strongly in the Scranton area. Smith did well in rural counties, but it wasn't enough to overcome the lead Casey had built in the huge population centers. Casey was sworn in for his second term beginning at noon on January 3, 2013.

United States Senate election in Pennsylvania, 2012 ^[40]

Party		Candidate	Votes	%	±
	Democratic	Bob Casey, Jr.(Incumbent)	3,021,364	53.7%	-4.9%
	Republican	Tom Smith	2,509,114	44.6%	+3.3%
	Libertarian	Rayburn Smith	96,926	1.7%	+1.7%
Majority			512,250	9.1%	-
Turnout			5,627,404
	Democratic hold		Swing	-4.9%

See also

• United States Senate elections, 2012
• United States House of Representatives elections in Pennsylvania, 2012

References

1. Dr. Michael McDonald (February 9, 2013). "2012 General Election Turnout Rates". George Mason University. Archived from the original on April 24, 2013. Retrieved April 6, 2013.
2. Itkowitz, Colby (November 21, 2010). "Mellow Casey has to up profile for re-election". The Morning Call . Retrieved November 25, 2010.
3. Malloy, Daniel (November 26, 2010). "Murrysville native planning for 2010 run against Casey". Pittsburgh Post-Gazette . Retrieved November 26, 2010.
4. Itkowitz, Colby (February 15, 2012). "Petitions filed for Pa. primary". The Allentown Morning Call. Retrieved February 22, 2012.
5. "2012 General Primary: United States Senator". PA Department of State. Retrieved April 25, 2012.
6. "2012: David Christian Enters U.S. Senate Race". Pike County Republican Committee. Archived from the original on November 15, 2011. Retrieved September 24, 2011.
7. Reabuck, Sandra K. (September 28, 2011). "New Paris pharmacist seeks GOP nomination". The Tribune-Democrat . Retrieved September 30, 2011.
8. Levy, Marc (November 4, 2011). "Sam Rohrer to run for Casey's Senate seat". MSNBC. Retrieved November 6, 2011.
9. Guerriero, John (September 29, 2011). "Armstrong County Republican announces candidacy for U.S. Senate in Erie". Erie Times-News . Retrieved September 30, 2011.
10. Gibson, Keegan (September 13, 2011). "Welch to Enter Senate Race". PoliticsPA . Retrieved September 14, 2011.
11. "Burns Exits Senate Race". PoliticsPA. February 2, 2012. Retrieved February 2, 2011.
12. Gibson, Keegan (January 14, 2012). "Cummings Drops Out of Senate Race, Endorses Burns". Politics PA. Retrieved January 16, 2012.
13. Jerry, Tara (January 16, 2012). "Vernon Endorses Burns for Senate". Politics PA. Retrieved January 17, 2012.
14. http://www.statecollege.com/news/local-news/corman-not-running-for-us-senate-in-2012-he-says-797097/
15. Itkowitz, Colby (December 10, 2010). "Dent versus Casey?". The Morning Call . Retrieved December 10, 2010.
16. Jacobs, Jeremy P. (November 16, 2010). "GOP Looking For A Casey Challenger". National Journal . Archived from the original on February 12, 2012. Retrieved November 25, 2010.
17. "Is Casey closer to a serious challenger?". August 4, 2011. Retrieved August 8, 2011.
18. http://www.delcotimes.com/articles/2011/09/16/news/doc4e72bc962d92c253852817.txt?viewmode=fullstory
19. Hundt, Brad (August 31, 2011). "U.S. Rep. Murphy says he won't run for Senate next year". Observer-Reporter . Retrieved September 2, 2011.
20. Sullivan, Sean (December 5, 2011). "Pileggi Won't Challenge Casey in Pa". National Journal . Retrieved December 5, 2011.
21. "not-in-the-cards"/20152 "Schweiker: Senate Run "Not in the Cards"". PoliticsPA . January 14, 2011. Retrieved January 15, 2011.
22. "EXCLUSIVE: State Senator Kim Ward Emerges as Potential Challenger to Bob Casey". PoliticsPA . December 8, 2010. Retrieved December 9, 2010.
23. Levy, Mark (January 29, 2012). "Pa. GOP endorses Welch to challenge Sen. Casey". Associated Press. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
24. "Smith outspends, outraises Welch in US Senate race". Associated Press. April 13, 2012. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
25. Gibson, Keegan (April 16, 2012). "Where's Tom Smith?". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
26. Gibson, Keegan (March 26, 2012). "Smith Tax Votes Play in Senate Campaign". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
27. Gibson, Keegan (August 17, 2011). "Sen. Candidate Smith a Heavyweight GOP Donor". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
28. Gibson, Keegan (March 28, 2012). "Bachmann Endorses Rohrer". PoliticsPA. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
29. "Primary 2012: Nominate Christian". Pittsburgh Tribune-Review. Retrieved April 28, 2012.
30. Brennan, Kevin (April 24, 2012). "Smith Wins Pennsylvania Senate Primary". National Journal. Archived from the original on April 27, 2012. Retrieved April 25, 2012.
31. "11/6/2012 2012 GENERAL ELECTION GENERAL CANDIDATE LIST" (PDF). Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved August 27, 2012.
32. Campaign Finances
33. Campaign Finances
34. [http://www.opensecrets.org/races/contrib.php%7C Center for Responsive Politics
35. by industry, opensecrets.org
36. "2012 Senate Race Ratings for November 1, 2012". The Cook Political Report. Retrieved September 22, 2018.
37. "2012 Senate". Sabato's Crystal Ball. Retrieved September 22, 2018.
38. "2012 Senate Ratings". Senate Ratings. The Rothenberg Political Report. Retrieved September 22, 2018.
39. "2012 Elections Map - Battle for the Senate 2012". Real Clear Politics. Retrieved September 22, 2018.
40. "2012 General Election - United States Senator". Pennsylvania Department of State. Retrieved November 8, 2012.

External links

• Pennsylvania Department of State
• Campaign contributions at OpenSecrets.org
• Outside spending at Sunlight Foundation
• Issue positions at On the Issues

Official campaign websites (Archived)

• Bob Casey, Jr. for U.S. Senate
• Tom Smith for U.S. Senate