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Author | Annie Jacobsen |
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Language | English |
Genre | Nonfiction |
Published | 2024 (Dutton) |
Publication place | United States |
ISBN | 978-0593476093 |
Nuclear War: A Scenario is a 2024 non-fiction book by American journalist Annie Jacobsen. It outlines a timeline of a hypothetical first strike against the continental United States by North Korea. [1] [2]
In the book, the war begins with North Korea first launching a surprise ICBM towards Washington, D.C., shortly followed by a second surprise nuclear missile launched from a North Korean submarine towards the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power plant in California. The United States tries but fails to stop both warheads. Both missiles hit their respective targets, the United States then decides to retaliate against North Korea, but in order to counterattack quickly enough, the United States nuclear arsenal needs to fly over the North Pole and therefore over Russian airspace. At the time of sending missiles over Russian airspace, Russia is not yet a target. The United States desperately tries to contact Russian leadership to notify them that the end target is North Korea, not Russia, but is unable to properly make contact and warn Russia before the American ICBMs are flying over Russia. Russia interprets ICBMs flying over their airspace as an attack on Russia and decides to launch over 900 nuclear warheads of its own towards targets in the United States. The United States sees these Russian missiles on scanners and then decides to launch the rest of the American warhead stockpile at Russia, along with NATO allies launching all of their nuclear weapons at mostly Russian targets as well, therefore effectively killing hundreds of millions of people in a matter of hours.
The book covers standard American military protocol in the event of a nuclear first strike against the United States. It particularly highlights launch on warning as a dangerous and potentially catastrophic policy of nuclear armed nations and concludes that any nuclear conflict has the potential to end in near-total human extinction. [3]
The book first discusses the Single Integrated Operational Plan, from a witness account by John H. Rubel, who detailed that in 1960, American military officials planned for a potential preemptive nuclear attack on the Soviet Union which would kill at least 600 million people, around half of whom would be from the Soviet Union's neighboring countries; Rubel said that the United States' top military officials lauded the plan, with only General David M. Shoup dissenting.
The book then shows a minute-by-minute breakdown from multiple perspectives of a scenario in 2024 where nuclear world war erupts. In minute 0, North Korea unleashes a surprise attack, launching a Hwasong-17 ICBM with a 1-megaton thermonuclear warhead at the Pentagon in Washington, D.C. The United States immediately detect the threat, but has no system to eliminate the North Korean ICBM during its boost phase when satellites still can detect it. US' long-range missile defenses consist of 44 interceptor missiles, of which 4 are fired from California at the Hwasong, but all miss in minute 9. The American president's evacuation delays the American nuclear response. By minute 16, North Korea launches a Pukguksong-1 SLBM with a thermonuclear warhead from 350 miles from California, but the United States' short-range missile defenses (Aegis and THAAD) were deployed too far from it to interfere. By minute 23, the North Korean SLBM successfully strikes the Diablo Canyon Nuclear Power Plant in California, causing a nuclear meltdown. In minute 24, the US initiates a nuclear attack on North Korea after the American president's approval, but due to a lack of travelling range, the American Minuteman III ICBMs must fly over Russia to reach North Korea.
The North Korean ICBM obliterates Washington D.C. in minute 33, stranding and incapacitating the American president while he is being evacuated. Within the next 10 minutes, Russia's flawed Tundra satellite system overestimates US' 50 Minuteman ICBMs and 8 Trident SLBMs to number in the hundreds, enough to devastate Russia. Having not heard from the American president and aware of the United States' past lies during wartime, the paranoid Russian president believes that the US has launched against Russia. By minute 45, the Russian president orders an all-out attack on it and perceived hostile countries in NATO and Europe; in minute 50, the US detect the impending Russian attack and launches its own all-out nuclear attack on 975 targets in Russia. From minute 52, North Korea is struck by 82 American nuclear warheads. At minute 55, North Korea detonates a nuclear warhead in a satellite orbiting 300 miles above the United States, generating an electromagnetic pulse that cripples its power grids, microprocessors and SCADA systems. At minute 57, Russian SLBMs destroy the American nuclear warfighting facilities and overwhelm the nuclear bunker at Raven Rock Mountain Complex, killing the nearby American president. At minute 58, European countries including Albania, Belgium, Bulgaria, Croatia, Estonia, Finland, France, Germany, Greece, Italy, Netherlands, Norway, Sweden, Turkey, Ukraine and the United Kingdom are struck by Russian nuclear warheads. By minute 92 of the conflict, the United States were struck by around 1,000 more Russian nuclear warheads. By this time, hundreds of millions of people have been killed. The nuclear war ends less than two hours after it began, leaving most of the Northern Hemisphere decimated and uninhabitable.
The nuclear conflict causes fires that trigger nuclear winter, preventing agriculture and killing plants, upending food chains. Small animals thrive, while larger animals are nearly wiped out. Humanity experiences widespread famine, with few exceptions including the southernmost countries of Australia, New Zealand, Argentina and parts of Paraguay. Nuclear fallout causes radiation poisoning. After months, as nuclear winter ends, the ozone layer, damaged by nuclear war, fails to shield life from the Sun's ultraviolet rays, forcing humanity to live underground, while insects and plagues from thawing corpses spread aboveground. The Earth itself takes 24,000 years to recover from nuclear war, while humanity's fate is unmentioned. The author concludes that the “enemy” was no country or group, but nuclear weapons.
Jacobsen has said "You would want to have a commander-in-chief who is of sound mind, who is fully in control of his mental capacity, who is not volatile, who is not subject to anger. These are significant character qualities that should be thought about when people vote for president, for the simple reason that the president has sole authority to launch nuclear weapons." [1]
In April 2024, it was announced that production studio Legendary Entertainment purchased the rights to adapt the book into a film, with Canadian director Denis Villeneuve set to direct. [4]
Barry Gewen, in the New York Times , said of Nuclear War: A Scenario that "Jacobsen, the author of “The Pentagon’s Brain,” has done her homework. She has spent more than a decade interviewing dozens of experts while mastering the voluminous literature on the subject, some of it declassified only in recent years." However, he does raise a question, stating that "If she favors abolishing nuclear weapons altogether, she owes it to her readers to say so, and then explain how it could be done. How do we get from here to there?" [2]
Interviewing Jacobsen herself, Kathy Gilsinan of Politico writes that "Nuclear war would be bad. Everyone knows this. Most people would probably rather not think through the specifics. But Annie Jacobsen, an author of seven books on sensitive national security topics, wants you to know exactly how bad it would be." [5]
Mike Riggs writing for Reason magazine wrote that the book is a "disaster porn thriller". [6]
In a more mixed case, Steven Poole of The Telegraph praises the book for its factual basis and research, but criticizes the prose as being "overblown", remarking that "In terms of style, Nuclear War appears to have been written for those who find the novels of Dan Brown too sophisticated. Pulp-thrillerish one-sentence paragraphs abound." However, he concludes on a positive note, appraising it as "a more accessible and deeper compendium of the unsettling facts about nuclear history, planning, and devastation[...]". [7]
In contrast, Peter Huessy of Global Security Review has an almost entirely negative appraisal of the work, remarking that "Although there are additional areas where Jacobsen incorporates inaccurate information into her scenario, the point is clear. Annie Jacobsen’s Nuclear War: A Scenario would be far more accurately titled, Nuclear War: A Novel or Nuclear War: Disarmament Propaganda". [8]
An anti-ballistic missile (ABM) is a surface-to-air missile designed to counter ballistic missiles. Ballistic missiles are used to deliver nuclear, chemical, biological, or conventional warheads in a ballistic flight trajectory. The term "anti-ballistic missile" is a generic term for a system designed to intercept and destroy any type of ballistic threat; however, it is commonly used for systems specifically designed to counter intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs).
The Anti-Ballistic Missile Treaty, also known as the ABM Treaty or ABMT, was an arms control treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union on the limitation of the anti-ballistic missile (ABM) systems used in defending areas against ballistic missile-delivered nuclear weapons. It was intended to reduce pressures to build more nuclear weapons to maintain deterrence. Under the terms of the treaty, each party was limited to two ABM complexes, each of which was to be limited to 100 anti-ballistic missiles.
An intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) is a ballistic missile with a range greater than 5,500 kilometres (3,400 mi), primarily designed for nuclear weapons delivery. Conventional, chemical, and biological weapons can also be delivered with varying effectiveness, but have never been deployed on ICBMs. Most modern designs support multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRVs), allowing a single missile to carry several warheads, each of which can strike a different target. The United States, Russia, China, France, India, the United Kingdom, Israel, and North Korea are the only countries known to have operational ICBMs. Pakistan is the only nuclear-armed state that does not possess ICBMs.
Nuclear warfare, also known as atomic warfare, is a military conflict or prepared political strategy that deploys nuclear weaponry. Nuclear weapons are weapons of mass destruction; in contrast to conventional warfare, nuclear warfare can produce destruction in a much shorter time and can have a long-lasting radiological result. A major nuclear exchange would likely have long-term effects, primarily from the fallout released, and could also lead to secondary effects, such as "nuclear winter", nuclear famine, and societal collapse. A global thermonuclear war with Cold War-era stockpiles, or even with the current smaller stockpiles, may lead to various scenarios including human extinction.
A ballistic missile (BM) is a type of missile that uses projectile motion to deliver warheads on a target. These weapons are powered only during relatively brief periods—most of the flight is unpowered. Short-range ballistic missiles (SRBM) typically stay within the Earth's atmosphere, while most larger missiles travel outside the atmosphere. The type of ballistic missile with the greatest range is an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). The largest ICBMs are capable of full orbital flight.
In nuclear strategy, a first strike or preemptive strike is a preemptive surprise attack employing overwhelming force. First strike capability is a country's ability to defeat another nuclear power by destroying its arsenal to the point where the attacking country can survive the weakened retaliation while the opposing side is left unable to continue war. The preferred methodology is to attack the opponent's strategic nuclear weapon facilities, command and control sites, and storage depots first. The strategy is called counterforce.
The LGM-30 Minuteman is an American land-based intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) in service with the Air Force Global Strike Command. As of 2024, the LGM-30G is the only land-based ICBM in service in the United States and represents the land leg of the U.S. nuclear triad, along with the Trident II submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) and nuclear weapons carried by long-range strategic bombers.
A multiple independently targetable reentry vehicle (MIRV) is an exoatmospheric ballistic missile payload containing several warheads, each capable of being aimed to hit a different target. The concept is almost invariably associated with intercontinental ballistic missiles carrying thermonuclear warheads, even if not strictly being limited to them. An intermediate case is the multiple reentry vehicle (MRV) missile which carries several warheads which are dispersed but not individually aimed. All nuclear-weapon states except Pakistan and North Korea are currently confirmed to have deployed MIRV missile systems.
A submarine-launched ballistic missile (SLBM) is a ballistic missile capable of being launched from submarines. Modern variants usually deliver multiple independently targetable reentry vehicles (MIRVs), each of which carries a nuclear warhead and allows a single launched missile to strike several targets. Submarine-launched ballistic missiles operate in a different way from submarine-launched cruise missiles.
The Strategic Arms Limitation Talks (SALT) were two rounds of bilateral conferences and corresponding international treaties involving the United States and the Soviet Union. The Cold War superpowers dealt with arms control in two rounds of talks and agreements: SALT I and SALT II.
A ballistic missile submarine is a submarine capable of deploying submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) with nuclear warheads. These submarines became a major weapon system in the Cold War because of their nuclear deterrence capability. They can fire missiles thousands of kilometers from their targets, and acoustic quieting makes them difficult to detect, thus making them a survivable deterrent in the event of a first strike and a key element of the mutual assured destruction policy of nuclear deterrence. The deployment of ballistic missile submarines is dominated by the United States and Russia. In fact, 70% of nuclear warheads in the USA are carried by ballistic missile submarines.
The LGM-118 Peacekeeper, originally known as the MX for "Missile, Experimental", was a MIRV-capable intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM) produced and deployed by the United States from 1986 to 2005. The missile could carry up to eleven Mark 21 reentry vehicles, each armed with a 300-kiloton W87 warhead. Initial plans called for building and deploying 100 MX ICBMs, but budgetary concerns limited the final procurement; only 50 entered service. Disarmament treaties signed after the Peacekeeper's development led to its withdrawal from service in 2005.
An intermediate-range ballistic missile (IRBM) is a ballistic missile with a range between 3,000 to 5,500 km, categorized between a medium-range ballistic missile (MRBM) and an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM). Classifying ballistic missiles by range is done mostly for convenience. In principle there is little difference between a high-performance IRBM and a low-performance ICBM, because decreasing payload mass can increase the range over the ICBM threshold. The range definition used here is used within the U.S. Missile Defense Agency.
START I was a bilateral treaty between the United States and the Soviet Union on the reduction and the limitation of strategic offensive arms. The treaty was signed on 31 July 1991 and entered into force on 5 December 1994. The treaty barred its signatories from deploying more than 6,000 nuclear warheads and a total of 1,600 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) and bombers.
Nuclear weapons delivery is the technology and systems used to place a nuclear weapon at the position of detonation, on or near its target. Several methods have been developed to carry out this task.
A nuclear triad is a three-pronged military force structure of land-based intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs), and strategic bombers with nuclear bombs and missiles. Countries build nuclear triads to eliminate an enemy's ability to destroy a nation's nuclear forces in a first-strike attack, which preserves their own ability to launch a second strike and therefore increases their nuclear deterrence.
A strategic nuclear weapon (SNW) is a nuclear weapon that is designed to be used on targets often in settled territory far from the battlefield as part of a strategic plan, such as military bases, military command centers, arms industries, transportation, economic, and energy infrastructure, and countervalue targets such areas such as cities and towns. It is in contrast to a tactical nuclear weapon, which is designed for use in battle as part of an attack with and often near friendly conventional forces, possibly on contested friendly territory. As of 2024, strategic nuclear weapons have been used twice in the 1945 United States bombings of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.
In nuclear strategy, a counterforce target is one that has a military value, such as a launch silo for intercontinental ballistic missiles, an airbase at which nuclear-armed bombers are stationed, a homeport for ballistic missile submarines, or a command and control installation.