Opinion polling for the 2020 Israeli legislative election

Last updated

In the run up to the 2020 Israeli legislative election, various organisations carry out opinion polling to gauge voting intention in Israel during the term of the 22nd Knesset. This article lists the results of such polls.

Contents

The date range for these opinion polls is from the previous election, held on 17 September 2019, to the present day. The elections are to be held on 2 March 2020. [1] No polls may be published from the end of the Friday before the election until the polling stations close on election day at 22:00. [2]

Polls are listed in reverse chronological order, showing the most recent first and using the dates when the survey fieldwork was done, as opposed to the date of publication. Where the fieldwork dates are unknown, the date of publication is given instead. The highest figure in each polling survey is displayed with its background shaded in the leading party's colour. If a tie ensues, this is applied to the highest figures. When a poll has no information on a certain party, that party is instead marked by a dash (–).

Seat projections

This section displays voting intention estimates referring to a hypothetical Knesset election. The figures listed are Knesset seat counts rather than percentages, unless otherwise stated.

Graphs

This graph shows the polling trends from the 17 September 2019 Israeli legislative election until election day using 4-poll moving average. Scenario polls are not included here.

For parties not crossing the electoral threshold (currently 3.25%) in any given poll, the number of seats is calculated as a percentage of the 120 total seats.

Opinion polling for the 2020 Israeli legislative election.svg
Local regression of polls conducted

Polls

Poll results are listed in the table below. Parties that fall below the electoral threshold are denoted by the percentage of votes that they received (N%) rather than the number of seats they would have gotten.

Legend

61 seats are required for a majority in the Knesset.

Note: The composition of the current government does not necessarily determine the exact makeup of the post-election government.

Color key:

   Exit poll

DatePolling firmPublisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Emet Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Yamina Otzma Gov.
Pre-election seats33321310987755
2 Mar 2020Election results [3] 33361579776(0.42%) [4] 58
2 Mar 2020Kantar Kan 11 [5] 3336156968760
2 Mar 2020Midgam Channel 12 [5] 3337147967760
2 Mar 2020Camile Fuchs Channel 13 [5] 3237146988660
28 Feb 2020 Election silence starting end of Friday before election day [2]
28 Feb 2020Smith Maariv [6] 3435148967758
28 Feb 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [7] 33331598778(1.8%)56
27–28 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [8] 33351498687(1.5%)58
27 Feb 2020Panels Politics Maariv & The Jerusalem Post [9] 34341399777(2.1%)57
27 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [10] 33331498779(2%)57
27 Feb 2020Kantar Kan 11 [11] 34351488687(1.6%)58
26 Feb 2020Direct Polls Arutz Sheva [12] 33351399687(0.96%)59
25 Feb 2020Midgam Walla! [13] 34341398787(1.7%)57
25 Feb 2020Panels Politics103fm [14] 32341498878(2%)57
24 Feb 2020Kantar Kan 11 [15] 333414108777(1.9%)56
24 Feb 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [16] 323314108878(2.0%)56
23 Feb 2020Kantar Kan 11 [17] 34351498776(1.3%)56
23 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [18] 333413108787(1.5%)57
19–20 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [19] 36331388778(1%)56
19–20 Feb 2020Direct Polls Arutz Sheva [20] 313314109788(1.2%)58
19 Feb 2020Panels Politics Maariv [21] 36321489877(2.6%)54
19 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [22] 35331398787(1.6%)56
17 Feb 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [23] 36331487877(1.9%)54
16–17 Feb 2020Midgam Walla! [24] 343313108787(2.5%)56
13–14 Feb 2020Panels Politics103fm [25] 35321488788(2.8%)56
13 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [26] 35331398787(2.2%)56
12–13 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [27] 34321488789(1%)57
12–13 Feb 2020Smith Maariv [28] 34331499777(1.4%)56
11–12 Feb 2020Panels Politics Makor Rishon [29] 36331478787(2.6%)56
7 Feb 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [30] 353314107876(1.5%)53
6 Feb 2020Direct Polls Channel 20 [31] 333413108787(1%)57
5–6 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [32] 36341388678(1%)57
5 Feb 2020Panels Politics Maariv [33] 36331387788(2.8%)56
5 Feb 2020Midgam Walla! [34] 34321398888(1.7%)56
30 Jan 2020Maagar Mochot103fm [35] 34311499779(1.5%)56
29 Jan 2020Panels Politics Maariv [36] 3633137888756
29 Jan 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [37] 353412107877(2.1%)55
29 Jan 2020Midgam Channel 12 [38] 35331388878(2.2%)56
29 Jan 2020Kantar Kan 11 [39] 34331488887(1.1%)56
28 Jan 2020Direct Polls Israel Hayom [40] 33351398787(1.32%)58
28 Jan 2020Announcement of Trump's Peace Plan [41]
22–23 Jan 2020Panels Politics Makor Rishon [42] 35321488788(2.6%)56
22–23 Jan 2020Midgam Walla! [43] 35321398878(2.2%)55
20–21 Jan 2020Kantar Kan 11 [44] 35311398888(1.93%)55
19 Jan 2020Direct Polls Channel 13 [45] 343213108788(1.1%)56
16 Jan 2020Maagar Mochot103fm [46] 343014108879(1.0%)54
16 Jan 2020Midgam Channel 12 [47] 343213888710(2.1%)57
16 Jan 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [48] 34311496877451
16 Jan 2020Kantar Kan 11 [49] 36311399787(2.2%)55
16 Jan 2020 (midnight)Deadline to submit the candidate lists [50]
15 Jan 2020 Yamina alliance reestablished, United Jewish Home dissolves [51]
15 Jan 2020 Green Party withdrawal [52]
DatePolling firmPublisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Emet Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ New
Right
NU UJH Green Gov.
Current seats3332131098752155
14 Jan 2020Direct Polls Arutz Sheva [53] 343213108887(2.4%)(2.3%)55
14 Jan 2020 (noon)Beginning of registration for candidate lists [54]
14 Jan 2020 New Right and National Union merger [55]
13 Jan 2020Midgam Channel 12 [56] 343113987765(0.4%)57
343213987710(0.4%)57
343213987764(0.4%)57
13 Jan 2020 Labor-Gesher and Meretz merger, [57] Democratic Union dissolves
DatePolling firmPublisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Dem.
Union
New
Right
NU UJH Green Gov.
JH Otzma
Current seats33321398764322155
9 Jan 2020Midgam Arutz Sheva [58] 343213877546457
343213878549(2.7%)57
8–9 Jan 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom [59] 343015778554(1%)5(0.2%)54
342914778551155
332914777555856
333013777116(1%)656
39 [a] 31147117 [a] 6(1%)556
8–9 Jan 2020Panels Politics Makor Rishon [60] 3531148885(2.4%)7458
3531147875(2.4%)7658
3531148875(2.4%)8458
3533148875(2.4%)1058
3532148885(2.4%)10(2.1%)58
8 Jan 2020Midgam Walla! [61] 353313888546(1.1%)(2.8%)(0.2%)55
3432138889856
7 Jan 2020 Meretz and Democratic Choice agree to run together as the Democratic Union list [62]
2 Jan 2020KANTAR Kan 11 [63] 353313778656(3%)54
2 Jan 2020Midgam Channel 12 [64] 35331388854 [b] 6(0.9%)(2.6%)(0.0%)55
34321387754 [c] 64 [d] 57
2 Jan 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [65] 363413767548(2.9%)56
35331377710855
1 Jan 2020Panels Politics Maariv [66] 3630138875(2.9%)6758
29 Dec 2019Midgam Channel 12 [67] 343213887545456
26 Dec 2019 Likud reelects Benjamin Netanyahu as its leader [68]
20 Dec 2019 The Jewish Home and Otzma Yehudit agree to run together on a list called the United Jewish Home [69] [70]
19 Dec 2019Smith103fm [71] 353213877545456
19 Dec 2019 Stav Shaffir announces independent run of the Green Party [72]
DatePolling firmPublisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Dem.
Union
JHNU New
Right
Otzma
Yehudit
Gov.
Current seats333213987654355
18 Dec 2019Panels Politics Makor Rishon [73] 3834148775(2.1%)(2.7%)7(1.6%)56
15 Dec 2019Kantar Kan 11 [74] 35311398765653
12 Dec 2019Smith Maariv [75] 353312877544 [e] 5 [e] 57
12 Dec 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [76] 37311488764(2%)5(1%)51
12 Dec 2019Midgam Channel 12 [77] 35321388855(2.8%)6(1.3%)54
12 Dec 2019The Knesset is dissolved [1]
10 Dec 2019Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [78] 37331368755652
9–10 Dec 2019Midgam Walla! [79] 35331388854(2.1%)6(1.3%)55
8 Dec 2019Kantar Kan Radio [80] 35341387854(2.4%)6(1.9%)56
5 Dec 2019Midgam Channel 12 [81] 34331388855(2.2%)6(1.9%)55
5 Dec 2019Maagar Mochot103fm [82] 343212888444658
28 Nov 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [83] 35331398844(2%)6(1%)56
28 Nov 2019Maagar Mochot103fm [84] 35331398844656
26–27 Nov 2019Smith Maariv [85] 35331388755654
26 Nov 2019Midgam Channel 12 [86] 34331389854(2.3%)6(1.2%)55
25–26 Nov 2019Midgam Walla! [87] 34331398754(2.3%)7(1.2%)56
25 Nov 2019Panels Politics Channel 12 [88] 373012877544655
22 Nov 2019Panel Project HaMidgam/Statnet [89] Channel 13 [90] 363313686444655
21–22 Nov 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [91] 343313878467(2%)56
21 Nov 2019Midgam Channel 12 [92] 33331389755755
21 Nov 2019Kantar Kan 11 [93] 333312788554557
21 Nov 2019 Attorney General indicts incumbent PM Benjamin Netanyahu on corruption charges [90]
15 Nov 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [94] 333113109766553
10 Nov 2019Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [95] 353413696544454
31 Oct 2019Maagar Mochot103fm [96] 34331298675654
22 Oct 2019Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [97] 343313787545456
10 Oct 2019 Yamina splits into two factions [98]
DatePolling firmPublisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Yamina Labor-
Gesher
Dem.
Union
Otzma
Yehudit
Gov.
3–6 Oct 2019Midgam Walla! [99] 33331397776556
17 Sep 2019 Election results [100] 333213987765(1.88%)55

Scenarios

Gideon Sa'ar founds a new party
DatePolling firmPublisher Blue &
White
Likud Sa'ar Joint
List
Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Dem.
Union
URWP New
Right
Gov.
Current seats333213987654355
1 Jan 2020Panels Politics Maariv [66] 342861387747662
Gideon Sa'ar leading Likud
DatePolling firmPublisher Blue &
White
Likud Joint
List
Shas Yisrael
Beiteinu
UTJ Labor-
Gesher
Dem.
Union
JHNU New
Right
Otzma Gov.
Current seats333213987654355
19 Dec 2019Smith103fm [71] 333013967545 [e] 8 [e] 59
18 Dec 2019Panels Politics Makor Rishon [73] 3430148785(2.6%)410(2%)60
15 Dec 2019Kantar Kan 11 [74] 3427131077554856
12 Dec 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [76] 333115117754(2%)7(2%)56
12 Dec 2019Midgam Channel 12 [77] 3526138875549(2.1%)54
10 Dec 2019Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [78] 352913787455755
8 Dec 2019Kantar Kan 11 [101] 33321398854857
28 Nov 2019Maagar Mochot103fm [84] 332814119941260
26–27 Nov 2019Smith Maariv [85] 353113877544656
26 Nov 2019Midgam Channel 12 [86] 352613109864(2.9%)9(2.2%)53
3–6 Oct 2019Midgam Walla! [99] 3326131078651256

Prime minister

Due to the political deadlock which resulted after the previous election, Shas chairman and Interior Minister Aryeh Deri suggested direct elections for prime minister. [102] Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which party leader they would prefer as prime minister. Their responses are given as percentages in the tables below.

Netanyahu vs Gantz
DatePolling firmPublisher Netanyahu Gantz NeitherDon't Know
28 Feb 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [7] 4535137
27–28 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [8] 4432
27 Feb 2020Panels Politics Maariv & The Jerusalem Post [9] 4536137
27 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [10] 493516
27 Feb 2020Kantar Kan 11 [11] 453421
25 Feb 2020Panels Politics103fm [14] 44351110
24 Feb 2020Kantar Kan 11 [15] 443422
24 Feb 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [16] 4430197
23 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [18] 4333186
19–20 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [19] 453520
19 Feb 2020Panels Politics Maariv [21] 433918
19 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [22] 4234186
17 Feb 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [23] 4533166
16–17 Feb 2020Midgam Walla! [24] 4335166
13–14 Feb 2020Panels Politics103fm [25] 434017
13 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [26] 4236175
12–13 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [27] 473518
12–13 Feb 2020Smith Maariv [28] 494011
7 Feb 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [30] 4432168
5–6 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [32] 473914
29 Jan 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [37] 433324
29 Jan 2020Midgam Channel 12 [38] 4137166
16 Jan 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [48] 4036177
16 Jan 2020Midgam Channel 12 [47] 4038166
16 Jan 2020Kantar Kan 11 [49] 414217
13 Jan 2020Midgam Channel 12 [56] 3939166
10 Jan 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom [59] 433819
2 Jan 2020Direct Polls Channel 13 [103] 48.545.95.00.6
2 Jan 2020Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [65] 41331312
2 Jan 2020Midgam Channel 12 [64] 4039156
1 Jan 2020Panels Politics Maariv [66] 414019
29 Dec 2019Direct Polls Channel 13 [103] 47.545.05.32.1
29 Dec 2019Midgam Channel 12 [67] 4038166
12 Dec 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [76] 424018
12 Dec 2019Midgam Channel 12 [77] 3837196
9–10 Dec 2019Midgam Walla! [79] 3738169
8 Dec 2019Kantar Kan Radio [80] 413821
5 Dec 2019Midgam Channel 12 [81] 3937177
28 Nov 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [83] 453916
26 Nov 2019Midgam Channel 12 [86] 4039147
21–22 Nov 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [91] 443719
15 Nov 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [94] 434116
11 Nov 2019Midgam Army Radio [104] 4439
10 Nov 2019Panel Project HaMidgam Channel 13 [95] 403723
5 Nov 2019Midgam Channel 12 [102] 403624
Sa'ar vs Gantz
DatePolling firmPublisher Sa'ar Gantz NeitherDon't Know
12 Dec 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [76] 313633
12 Dec 2019Midgam Channel 12 [77] 22363012
8 Dec 2019Kantar Kan Radio [80] 283636
5 Dec 2019Midgam Channel 12 [81] 19363114
26 Nov 2019Midgam Channel 12 [86] 23402413

Coalition

Some opinion pollsters have asked voters which coalition they would prefer. The tables below list their responses as percentages.

Minority government backed by the Joint List
DatePolling firmPublisherSupportOpposeDon't Know
16–17 Feb 2020Midgam Walla! [24] 2854 [f] 18
13 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [26] 255619
5–6 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [32] 295417
11 Nov 2019Midgam Army Radio [104] 3459
General
DatePolling firmPublisher National unity government Right Left Don't Know
Likud-B&W onlyw/ right-wing blockw/ Yisrael Beiteinu
12–13 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [27] 1917302212
5–6 Feb 2020Maagar Mohot Israel Hayom & i24 News [32] 1717302313
5 Feb 2020Panels Politics Maariv [33] 2616231916
12 Dec 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [76] 3019201516
21 Nov 2019Kantar Kan 11 [93] 402415
15 Nov 2019Maagar Mochot Israel Hayom [94] 40281715
National unity government headed by Benjamin Netanyahu
DatePolling firmPublisherSupportOpposeDon't Know
13 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [26] 5025 [f] 25
3–6 Oct 2019Midgam Walla! [99] 42508
National unity government headed by Benny Gantz
DatePolling firmPublisherSupportOpposeDon't Know
13 Feb 2020Midgam Channel 12 [26] 5227 [f] 21
National unity government
DatePolling firmPublisherSupportOpposeDon't Know
5 Feb 2020Midgam Walla! [34] 522622
Government headed by Benny Gantz
DatePolling firmPublisher National unity government Center-left &
Yisrael Beiteinu
Other
with Netanyahu without Netanyahu
with Haredim without Haredim with Haredim
9 Nov 2019Midgam Channel 12 [105] 29.117.920.33.21910.5

Notes

  1. 1 2 Merger of Blue and White, Labor-Gesher and the Democratic Union
  2. Meretz only (thus without the Israel Democratic Party)
  3. Meretz and the Green Party only (thus without the Israel Democratic Party)
  4. Within the Democratic Union
  5. 1 2 3 4 Within the Union of Right-Wing Parties
  6. 1 2 3 Prefer a fourth consecutive snap election.

References

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