Pizza Meter

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The "Pizza Meter" is a term used to describe how the increase in pizza orders from offices of the United States government, such as the White House and The Pentagon, can be indicative of important political or military events. [1] [2] [3] The concept is based on empirical observations and has been mentioned in various media as a possible crisis predictor. [4]

Contents

The phenomenon is part of a broader set of unconventional intelligence methods, grouped under various subcategories of open-source intelligence (OSINT).

Origin and development

The notion that an increase in pizza orders could signal significant government activity first emerged during the Cold War, when high volumes of pizza deliveries to key facilities such as the Central Intelligence Agency and the United States Department of State were observed to coincide with moments of international crisis. [5] It is believed that Soviet officials monitored these orders as indicators of American strategic moves. [6]

This phenomenon was described in detail by Mark M. Lowenthal, an expert on intelligence and national security, in his book Intelligence: From the Secrets of Politics. Lowenthal introduces the term 'PIZZINT' (Pizza Intelligence), within the broader framework of 'OSINT' (Open-Source Intelligence), which refers to the analysis of publicly available information. [7]

Origin of the term "Pizza Meter"

Frank Meeks, the owner of the 45-restaurant Washington, D.C. Domino's franchise, [8] [9] began noticing an increase in pizza orders from U.S. government offices (such as the Pentagon) just before a major announcement from the White House. [4] [6] [10] The public dubbed the phenomenon the "Pizza Meter," although shortly after the information was released, government offices stopped purchasing pizza all at once from Domino's in Washington, D.C., and began purchasing pizza at separate times or in different pizzerias. [6] [8] [11]

Notable incidents

Just before the 1983 invasion of Grenada and the 1989 invasion of Panama, Domino's pizza deliveries increased dramatically, [12] [13] with deliveries made by Domino's just before the invasion of Panama increasing by 25%. [14]

On the night of August 1, 1990, the eve of the Iraqi invasion of Kuwait, military personnel at the Pentagon met to discuss issues in the Middle East. Since they planned to stay up all night arguing, they ordered several more pizzas than usual from Domino's. In total, fifteen Domino's pizza deliveries were made that night, [15] with 101 pizza deliveries made during the week before the invasion. [16] [17] Furthermore, on the same day, between 8:00 p.m. and 2:00 a.m., fifty-five pizzas were delivered to the White House, much more than was normally ordered. [16]

On August 21, 1991, a record number of pizzas were delivered to the Pentagon and the White House, in the middle of the 1991 Soviet coup attempt. [18] This incident surpassed the previous record during the invasion of Kuwait, suggesting that the increase in pizza orders may reflect crisis management preparedness. [18]

On May 1, 2011, the day of Operation Neptune Spear that killed Osama bin Laden, according to former deputy assistant Secretary of Defense Matt Spence, it was suggested that those aware of the operation and awaiting to hear the results order pizza. Secretary of State Hillary Clinton preferred a healthier option and vegetable plates were procured instead, although later pizza was ordered anyway. [19]

On April 13, 2024, Iran launched a drone and missile attack against Israel, in retaliation for an Israeli attack on an Iranian consulate annex in Syria on April 1. That night, an unusual increase in pizza orders was observed in the United States, especially at chains located near important government headquarters such as the Pentagon and the White House. [6] [11] [20] This increase coincided with the saturation of activity in local pizzerias, as reported on Twitter by user @donald_PL_. The user shared screenshots from Google Maps showing elevated activity at Papa John's and Extreme Pizza locations in Washington, D.C., around 6:00 p.m. local time, coinciding with the time of Iran's attack on Israel. This user described the "Pizza Meter" as an indicator that "assesses the United States' involvement in global crises based on footfall at local pizzerias." [6] [21]

Impact and consequences

The "Pizza Meter" has been referenced in several news articles as a useful instrument for predicting crises. [16] Reports observing the relationship between pizza orders and crisis events have had a cultural and operational impact within government agencies. For example, the Pentagon has modified its internal food options to include fast food chains capable of offering service during extended hours, in response to the need for available food during overnight emergencies. [16] According to Meeks, due to the phenomenon fake names have been frequently used when ordering pizza in the Washington area, usually those of well-known politicians. [22]

See also

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References

  1. ↑ "El Pizzómetro, una señal de momentos de crisis que se remontaría a la Guerra Fría" [The Pizza Meter, a sign of moments of crisis that dates back to the Cold War]. Infobae (in Spanish). April 14, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
  2. ↑ "Por qué dicen que la pizza puede predecir que algo grave ocurrirá en el mundo" [Why do they say that pizza can predict that something serious will happen in the world?]. Clarín (in Spanish). April 14, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
  3. ↑ "Conflicto entre Irán e Israel desata comentario sobre el Índice Pizza" [Conflict between Iran and Israel sparks commentary on the Pizza Index]. Última Hora (in Spanish). April 14, 2024. Retrieved April 14, 2024.
  4. 1 2 "¿Por qué se dice que la pizza puede predecir que algo grave ocurrirá en el mundo?" [Why is it said that pizza can predict that something serious will happen in the world?]. La Vanguardia (in Spanish). April 15, 2024. Retrieved April 16, 2024.
  5. ↑ Prego, Carlos (April 15, 2024). "Hay una forma de saber si el mundo se acerca a una crisis internacional: el Pizzómetro. Y se acaba de activar" [There is a way to know if the world is approaching an international crisis: the Pizza Meter. And it just got activated.]. Xataka (in Spanish). Retrieved April 15, 2024.
  6. 1 2 3 4 5 Cañas, Alejandro (April 15, 2024). "Qué es el Pizzómetro, la señal que se disparó el sábado durante el ataque de Irán a Israel" [What is the Pizza Meter, the signal that was triggered on Saturday during Iran's attack on Israel]. Diario AS (in Spanish). Retrieved April 16, 2024.
  7. ↑ Lowenthal, Mark M. (November 8, 2019). Intelligence: From Secrets to Policy (8th ed.). Washington, D.C.: CQ Press. p. 137. ISBN   978-1544325064. One of the most famous is PIZZINT – pizza intelligence. This refers to the belief that Soviet and now Russian officials based in Washington, D.C., keep watch for large numbers of pizza delivery trucks going late in the evening to the CIA, DOD, the State Department, and the White House as an indication that a crisis is brewing somewhere
  8. 1 2 "The Pizza Meter, a Seven Figure Retirement, and You". TradeSmith. October 7, 2023. Archived from the original on February 14, 2024. Retrieved November 17, 2023.
  9. ↑ Cawley, Janet (February 17, 1991). "Washington at War: Security Is Up, Parties Are Out and Pizza May Have to Be Rationed". Chicago Tribune . Archived from the original on May 11, 2024. Retrieved May 11, 2024.
  10. ↑ Schafer, Sarah (December 19, 1998). "With Capital in Panic, Pizza Deliveries Soar". The Washington Post. Retrieved April 20, 2024.
  11. 1 2 "Pizza Meter: así funciona el curioso índice que podría advertir una Guerra Mundial" [Pizza Meter: this is how the curious index that could warn of a World War works]. Cronista (in Spanish). April 14, 2024. Retrieved April 16, 2024.
  12. ↑ Wanttaja, Ron (November 17, 2023). "A big 2 on the Pizza Meter". Rec.Humor.Funny Jokes. Archived from the original on July 6, 2008. Retrieved November 17, 2023.
  13. ↑ Stapleton, Ross (May 23, 1998). "CFP'93 - Stapleton". Computer Professionals for Social Responsibility. Archived from the original on May 23, 1998. Retrieved November 17, 2023.
  14. ↑ Neumann, Peter G. (July 26, 1990). "Pentagon Pizza". The RISKS Digest. 10 (15).
  15. ↑ "Slice of Life: Pizza Orders Soar in D.C." Los Angeles Times . January 16, 1991. p. 172 – via newspapers.com.(subscription required)
  16. 1 2 3 4 Nuño, Ada (January 26, 2019). "Pizzint: la fuente de inteligencia que usan los rusos para saber cuándo hay crisis" [Pizzint: the intelligence source that the Russians use to know when there is a crisis]. El Confidencial (in Spanish). Retrieved April 16, 2024.
  17. ↑ Trausch, Susan (August 30, 1991). "Pizza Politics". Boston Globe . p. 15 – via newspapers.com.(subscription required)
  18. 1 2 González Perez, Wendy. "Pizza Meter: ¿Qué es y por qué se dice que puede predecir algo grave?" [Pizza Meter: What is it and why is it said that it can predict something serious?]. Milenio (in Spanish). Retrieved April 16, 2024.
  19. ↑ Graff, Garrett (April 30, 2021). "'I'd Never Been Involved in Anything as Secret as This'". Politico. Retrieved June 9, 2024.
  20. ↑ Vela, Lizzette (April 14, 2024). ""Pizza Meter" en Washington: ¿es indicador de la Tercera Guerra Mundial?" ["Pizza Meter" in Washington: Is an indicator of World War III?]. El Ciudadano (in Spanish). Retrieved April 16, 2024.
  21. ↑ donald.pl [@donald_PL_] (April 14, 2024). "Jest coś takiego jak "The Pizza Meter", czyli wskaźnik oceniający zaangażowanie USA w światowe kryzysy na podstawie obłożenia lokalnych pizzerii w Pentagonie, gdzie znajduje się Departament Obrony USA. I tak to wyglądało wczoraj" [There is something called "The Pizza Meter", an indicator that assesses US involvement in global crises based on the occupancy of local pizzerias in the Pentagon, where the US Department of Defense is located. And this is what it looked like yesterday.] (Tweet) (in Polish) – via Twitter.
  22. ↑ "DOMINO'S PIZZA METER . . . A LARGE PEPPERONI, PLEASE". The Washington Post. December 28, 1997. Retrieved April 20, 2024. Here are the five most frequently used fake names when ordering pizza in the Washington area, according to Frank Meeks, the Washington area's leading Domino's Pizza franchiser. 1. Janet Reno 2. Tipper Gore 3. Norv Turner 4. Newt Gingrich 5. Jim Vance, Channel 4 anchor SOURCE: Domino's Team Washington
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