Rare events

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Rare or extreme events are events that occur with low frequency, and often refers to infrequent events that have a widespread effect and which might destabilize systems (for example, stock markets, [1] ocean wave intensity [2] or optical fibers [3] or society [4] ). Rare events encompass natural phenomena (major earthquakes, tsunamis, hurricanes, floods, asteroid impacts, solar flares, etc.), anthropogenic hazards (warfare and related forms of violent conflict, acts of terrorism, industrial accidents, financial and commodity market crashes, etc.), as well as phenomena for which natural and anthropogenic factors interact in complex ways (epidemic disease spread, global warming-related changes in climate and weather, etc.).

Contents

Overview

Rare or extreme events are discrete occurrences of infrequently observed events. Despite being statistically improbable, such events are plausible insofar as historical instances of the event (or a similar event) have been documented. [5] Scholarly and popular analyses of rare events often focus on those events that could be reasonably expected to have a substantial negative effect on a society—either economically [6] or in terms of human casualties [7] (typically, both). Examples of such events might include an 8.0+ Richter magnitude earthquake, a nuclear incident that kills thousands of people, or a 10%+ single-day change in the value of a stock market index. [8] [9] [10]

Modeling and analysis

Rare event modeling (REM) refers to efforts to characterize the statistical distribution parameters, generative processes, or dynamics that govern the occurrence of statistically rare events, including but not limited to highly influential natural or human-made catastrophes. Such “modeling” may include a wide range of approaches, including, most notably, statistical models for analyzing historical event data [11] [12] and computational software models that attempt to simulate rare event processes and dynamics. [13] REM also encompasses efforts to forecast the occurrence of similar events over some future time horizon, which may be of interest for both scholarly and applied purposes (e.g., risk mitigation and planning). [14] Novel data collection techniques can be used for learning about rare events data. [15]

Relevant data sets

In many cases, rare and catastrophic events can be regarded as extreme-magnitude instances of more mundane phenomena. For example, seismic activity, stock market fluctuations, and acts of organized violence all occur along a continuum of extremity, with more extreme-magnitude cases being statistically more infrequent. [16] Therefore, rather than viewing rare event data as its own class of information, data concerning "rare" events often exists as a subset of data within a broader parent event class (e.g., a seismic activity data set would include instances of extreme earthquakes, as well as data on much lower-intensity seismic events).

The following is a list of data sets focusing on domains that are of broad scholarly and policy interest, and where "rare" (extreme-magnitude) cases may be of particularly keen interest due to their potentially devastating consequences. Descriptions of the data sets are extracted from the source websites or providers.

Conflicts

Natural disasters

Diseases

Others

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Earthquake</span> Sudden movement of the Earths crust

An earthquake – also called a quake, tremor, or temblor – is the shaking of the Earth's surface resulting from a sudden release of energy in the lithosphere that creates seismic waves. Earthquakes can range in intensity, from those so weak they cannot be felt, to those violent enough to propel objects and people into the air, damage critical infrastructure, and wreak destruction across entire cities. The seismic activity of an area is the frequency, type, and size of earthquakes experienced over a particular time. The seismicity at a particular location in the Earth is the average rate of seismic energy release per unit volume.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Natural disaster</span> Major adverse event resulting from natural processes of the Earth

A natural disaster is the highly harmful impact on a society or community following a natural hazard event. Some examples of natural hazard events include: flooding, drought, earthquake, tropical cyclone, lightning, tsunami, volcanic activity, wildfire. A natural disaster can cause loss of life or damage property, and typically leaves economic damage in its wake. The severity of the damage depends on the affected population's resilience and on the infrastructure available. Scholars have been saying that the term natural disaster is unsuitable and should be abandoned. Instead, the simpler term disaster could be used, while also specifying the category of hazard. A disaster is a result of a natural or human-made hazard impacting a vulnerable community. It is the combination of the hazard along with exposure of a vulnerable society that results in a disaster.

Induced seismicity is typically earthquakes and tremors that are caused by human activity that alters the stresses and strains on Earth's crust. Most induced seismicity is of a low magnitude. A few sites regularly have larger quakes, such as The Geysers geothermal plant in California which averaged two M4 events and 15 M3 events every year from 2004 to 2009. The Human-Induced Earthquake Database (HiQuake) documents all reported cases of induced seismicity proposed on scientific grounds and is the most complete compilation of its kind.

Earthquake forecasting is a branch of the science of seismology concerned with the probabilistic assessment of general earthquake seismic hazard, including the frequency and magnitude of damaging earthquakes in a given area over years or decades. While forecasting is usually considered to be a type of prediction, earthquake forecasting is often differentiated from earthquake prediction, whose goal is the specification of the time, location, and magnitude of future earthquakes with sufficient precision that a warning can be issued. Both forecasting and prediction of earthquakes are distinguished from earthquake warning systems, which, upon detection of an earthquake, provide a real-time warning to regions that might be affected.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">International Seismological Centre</span> Organisation charged with collection, analysis and publication of global seismicity data

The International Seismological Centre (ISC) is a non-governmental, nonprofit organisation charged with the final collection, definitive analysis and publication of global seismicity. The ISC was formed in 1964 as an international organisation independent of national governments that would carry on the work of the International Seismological Summary in collecting and analyzing seismic data from around the world, and particularly to handle increased flow of data from the World-Wide Standard Seismograph Network (WWSSN), also established that year. The ISC considers its prime task to be the collection and re-analysis of all available earthquake seismic date in order to produce definitive data on earthquakes. The ISC's catalog is considered "the most complete and authoritative final depository of global earthquake parameter data."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Wells Gray-Clearwater volcanic field</span> Volcanic field in British Columbia, Canada

The Wells Gray-Clearwater volcanic field, also called the Clearwater Cone Group, is a potentially active monogenetic volcanic field in east-central British Columbia, Canada, located approximately 130 km (81 mi) north of Kamloops. It is situated in the Cariboo Mountains of the Columbia Mountains and on the Quesnel and Shuswap Highlands. As a monogenetic volcanic field, it is a place with numerous small basaltic volcanoes and extensive lava flows.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lists of 21st-century earthquakes</span>

The following is a summary of significant earthquakes during the 21st century. In terms of fatalities, the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake was the most destructive event with 227,898 confirmed fatalities, followed by the 2010 Haiti earthquake with about 160,000 fatalities, the 2008 Sichuan earthquake with 87,587 fatalities, the 2005 Kashmir earthquake with 87,351 fatalities, and the 2023 Turkey–Syria earthquakes with at least 59,259 fatalities.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Hazard</span> Situation or object that can cause damage

A hazard is a potential source of harm. Substances, events, or circumstances can constitute hazards when their nature would allow them, even just theoretically, to cause damage to health, life, property, or any other interest of value. The probability of that harm being realized in a specific incident, combined with the magnitude of potential harm, make up its risk, a term often used synonymously in colloquial speech.

The 1783 Calabrian earthquakes were a sequence of five strong earthquakes that hit the region of Calabria in southern Italy, the first two of which produced significant tsunamis. The epicenters form a clear alignment extending nearly 100 km from the Straits of Messina to about 18 km SSW of Catanzaro. The epicenter of the first earthquake occurred in the plain of Palmi. The earthquakes occurred over a period of nearly two months, all with estimated magnitudes of 5.9 or greater. Estimates of the total number of deaths lie in the range 32,000 to 50,000.

The 1868 Hawaiʻi earthquake was the largest recorded in the history of Hawaiʻi island, with an estimated magnitude of 7.9 Mfa and a maximum Mercalli intensity of X (Extreme). The earthquake occurred at 4 p.m. local time on April 2, 1868 and caused a landslide and tsunami that led to 77 deaths. The aftershock sequence for this event has continued up to the present day.

A series of small volcanic earthquakes measuring less than 4.0 on the Richter magnitude scale took place in the sparsely populated Nazko area of the Central Interior of British Columbia, Canada, from October 9, 2007, to June 12, 2008. They occurred just west of Nazko Cone, a small tree-covered cinder cone that last erupted about 7,200 years ago.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Imperial Fault Zone</span>

The Imperial Fault Zone is a system of geological faults located in Imperial County in the Southern California region, and adjacent Baja California state in Mexico. It cuts across the border between the United States and Mexico.

The 1762 Arakan earthquake occurred at about 17:00 local time on 2 April, with an epicentre somewhere along the coast from Chittagong to Arakan in modern Myanmar. It had an estimated moment magnitude between 8.5 and 8.8 and a maximum estimated intensity of XI (Extreme). It triggered a local tsunami in the Bay of Bengal and caused at least 200 deaths. The earthquake was associated with major areas of both uplift and subsidence. It is also associated with a change in course of the Brahmaputra River to from east of Dhaka to 150 kilometres (93 mi) to the west via the Jamuna River.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">UCERF3</span> 2015 US Geological Survey earthquake forecast for California

The 2015 Uniform California Earthquake Rupture Forecast, Version 3, or UCERF3, is the latest official earthquake rupture forecast (ERF) for the state of California, superseding UCERF2. It provides authoritative estimates of the likelihood and severity of potentially damaging earthquake ruptures in the long- and near-term. Combining this with ground motion models produces estimates of the severity of ground shaking that can be expected during a given period, and of the threat to the built environment. This information is used to inform engineering design and building codes, planning for disaster, and evaluating whether earthquake insurance premiums are sufficient for the prospective losses. A variety of hazard metrics can be calculated with UCERF3; a typical metric is the likelihood of a magnitude M 6.7 earthquake in the 30 years since 2014.

The 1886 Peloponnese earthquake occurred at 23:27 local time on 27 August. It had an estimated magnitude between 6.8 and 7.3 on the moment magnitude scale and a maximum felt intensity of X (Extreme) on the Mercalli intensity scale. It caused extensive damage in Messenia, with the towns of Filiatra and Marathos both severely affected. Between 326 and 600 people were killed. It was felt over a wide area from the Khedivate of Egypt to Malta and possibly as far away as Bern and Marseille.

The 1909 Benavente earthquake occurred on April 23 at 17:39:36 local in the Santarém District of the Central Region, Portugal. The earthquake had an estimated moment magnitude of 6.0 and a maximum intensity assigned at X (Extreme) on the Mercalli scale. It nearly destroyed the town of Benavente, killing 60 and injuring 75 people as a result.

The region of Zhili was struck by a major earthquake with an estimated magnitude of 7.5 Ms or 7.4 Mw on June 12, 1830. The epicentre was close to Cixian, which suffered the most severe damage. A total of 7,477 people died as a result of the earthquake.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">1867 Java earthquake</span> Earthquake in the Dutch East Indies (present-day Indonesia)

The 1867 Central Java earthquake occurred on June 10 at between 04:20 and 04:30 local time. It struck off the southern coast of the Indonesian island with an estimated moment magnitude of 7.8 (Mw ). Widespread devastation occurred in Central Java, where as many as 700 people were killed. The intermediate-depth intraslab earthquake did not cause a tsunami.

References

  1. ↑ Sornette, Didier (2017). Why stock markets crash : critical events in complex financial systems. Princeton University Press. ISBN   9781400885091.
  2. ↑ Dysthe, Kristian; Krogstad, Harald E.; Müller, Peter (January 2008). "Oceanic Rogue Waves". Annual Review of Fluid Mechanics. 40 (1): 287–310. Bibcode:2008AnRFM..40..287D. doi:10.1146/annurev.fluid.40.111406.102203.
  3. ↑ Dudley, John M.; Dias, Frédéric; Erkintalo, Miro; Genty, Goëry (28 September 2014). "Instabilities, breathers and rogue waves in optics". Nature Photonics. 8 (10): 755–764. arXiv: 1410.3071 . Bibcode:2014NaPho...8..755D. doi:10.1038/nphoton.2014.220. S2CID   53349599.
  4. ↑ King, Gary; Zeng, Langche (2001). "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data". Political Analysis. 9 (2): 137–163. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a004868 .
  5. ↑ Morio, J., Balesdent, M. (2015). Estimation of Rare Event Probabilities in Complex Aerospace and Other Systems. Elsevier Science. http://store.elsevier.com/product.jsp?isbn=9780081000915&pagename=search
  6. ↑ Sanders, D. (2002). The management of losses arising from extreme events. Paper presented at General Insurance Convention. http://www.actuaries.org.uk/research-and-resources/documents/management-losses-arising-extreme-events
  7. ↑ Clauset, Aaron; Woodard, Ryan (2013). "Estimating the historical and future probabilities of large terrorist events". The Annals of Applied Statistics. 7 (4): 1838–1865. arXiv: 1209.0089 . doi:10.1214/12-AOAS614. S2CID   3088917.
  8. ↑ Ghil, M.; Yiou, P.; Hallegatte, S.; Malamud, B. D.; Naveau, P.; Soloviev, A.; Friederichs, P.; Keilis-Borok, V.; Kondrashov, D.; Kossobokov, V.; Mestre, O.; Nicolis, C.; Rust, H. W.; Shebalin, P.; Vrac, M.; Witt, A.; Zaliapin, I. (2011). "Extreme events: Dynamics, statistics and prediction". Nonlinear Processes in Geophysics. 18 (3): 295–350. Bibcode:2011NPGeo..18..295G. doi: 10.5194/npg-18-295-2011 .
  9. ↑ Sharma, A. S.; Bunde, A.; Dimri, V.P.; Baker, D.N. (6 May 2013). Extreme events and natural hazards: The complexity perspective. Wiley. ISBN   9781118672235.
  10. ↑ Watkins, N. W. (2013). "Bunched black (And grouped grey) swans: Dissipative and non-dissipative models of correlated extreme fluctuations in complex geosystems" (PDF). Geophysical Research Letters. 40 (2): 402–410. Bibcode:2013GeoRL..40..402W. doi: 10.1002/grl.50103 .
  11. ↑ King, Gary; Zeng, Langche (2001). "Logistic Regression in Rare Events Data". Political Analysis. 9 (2): 137–163. doi: 10.1093/oxfordjournals.pan.a004868 . ISSN   1047-1987. JSTOR   25791637.
  12. ↑ King, Gary; Zeng, Langche (2001). "Explaining Rare Events in International Relations". International Organization. 55 (3): 693–715. doi:10.1162/00208180152507597. ISSN   0020-8183. JSTOR   3078661. S2CID   17865688.
  13. ↑ Klüppelberg, Claudia (1997). Modelling Extremal Events. doi:10.1007/978-3-642-33483-2. ISBN   978-3-642-08242-9.
  14. ↑ Goodwin, Paul; Wright, George (2010). "The limits of forecasting methods in anticipating rare events" (PDF). Technological Forecasting and Social Change. 77 (3): 355–368. doi:10.1016/j.techfore.2009.10.008.
  15. ↑ King, Gary; Zeng, Langche (2002-05-30). "Estimating risk and rate levels, ratios and differences in case-control studies". Statistics in Medicine. 21 (10): 1409–1427. doi:10.1002/sim.1032. ISSN   0277-6715. PMID   12185893. S2CID   11387977.
  16. ↑ Clauset, Aaron; Shalizi, Cosma Rohilla; Newman, M. E. J. (2009). "Power-Law Distributions in Empirical Data". SIAM Review. 51 (4): 661–703. arXiv: 0706.1062 . Bibcode:2009SIAMR..51..661C. doi:10.1137/070710111. S2CID   9155618.
  17. ↑ https://acd.iiss.org/
  18. ↑ http://www.acleddata.com/data/
  19. ↑ https://web.archive.org/web/20141219135756/http://www.correlatesofwar.org/COW2%20Data/MIDs/MID40.html
  20. ↑ http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
  21. ↑ https://www.rand.org/nsrd/projects/terrorism-incidents.html
  22. ↑ http://www.systemicpeace.org/inscrdata.html
  23. ↑ https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/search/
  24. ↑ http://floodobservatory.colorado.edu/
  25. ↑ http://www.fema.gov/policy-claim-statistics-flood-insurance/policy-claim-statistics-flood-insurance/policy-claim-13
  26. ↑ http://faostat.fao.org/
  27. ↑ http://www.volcano.si.edu/search_eruption.cfm
  28. ↑ http://www.emdat.be/
  29. ↑ http://www.ngdc.noaa.gov/hazard/
  30. ↑ http://gis.cdc.gov/grasp/fluview/fluportaldashboard.html
  31. ↑
  32. ↑ http://aviation-safety.net/database/
  33. ↑ http://www.johnstonsarchive.net/nuclear/radevents/
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