Sigma I-64 war game

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The Sigma I-64 war game, one of the Sigma war games, was played from 6 to 9 April 1964. Its purpose was to test scenarios of escalation of warfare in Vietnam. After rigorous research into information needed to form a scenario, a simulation took place, with knowledgeable officials playing out the roles of actual government decision makers. Participants were drawn from the State Department, Department of Defense, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. In Sigma I-64, the scenarios to be examined were the burgeoning Viet Cong insurgency in Vietnam, and the possible use of U.S. air power against it.

The Sigma war games were a series of classified high level war games played in the Pentagon during the 1960s to strategize the conduct of the burgeoning Vietnam War. The games were designed to replicate then-current conditions in Indochina, with an aim toward predicting future events in the region. In almost all runs, the outcome was either a communist win, or a stalemate that led to protests in the US.

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Contents

The conclusion drawn from the game was that American air power would have little effect on the Viet Cong because they needed only 15 tons of supplies daily to survive and fight.

Overview

The Sigma I-64 war game was one of a series of classified high level war games played in the Pentagon during the 1960s, codenamed Sigma, to strategize concerning the conduct of the burgeoning Vietnam War. All of these games were designed to replicate conditions in Indochina, with an aim toward predicting future foreign affairs events. The opposing Blue and Red Teams customary in war games were designated the friendly and enemy forces as was usual; however, several smaller teams were sometimes subsumed under Red and Blue Teams. [1] [2]

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Vietnam War 1955–1975 conflict in Vietnam

The Vietnam War, also known as the Second Indochina War, and in Vietnam as the Resistance War Against America or simply the American War, was a conflict in Vietnam, Laos, and Cambodia from 1 November 1955 to the fall of Saigon on 30 April 1975, with U.S. involvement ending in 1973. It was the second of the Indochina Wars and was officially fought between North Vietnam and South Vietnam. North Vietnam was supported by the Soviet Union, China, and other communist allies; South Vietnam was supported by the United States, South Korea, the Philippines, Australia, Thailand and other anti-communist allies. The war is considered a Cold War-era proxy war from some US perspectives. It lasted some 19 years and included the Laotian Civil War and the Cambodian Civil War, resulting in all three countries becoming communist states in 1975. The outcome of the war humiliated the United States and diminished its reputation in the world.

Preparation for these simulations was quite extensive. A game staff of as many as 45 people researched and developed the scenarios. The actual play of the war game involved 30 to 35 participants. There are usually four or five simulations per year, with the ideas for scenarios solicited surreptitiously from the State Department, the Central Intelligence Agency, and major military commands. [3]

Background

Sigma I-64 was played between 6 and 9 April 1964. [4] It was designed to test secretive scenarios of escalation of warfare in Vietnam, including a gradually increasing bombing campaign. [5] The concept of a massive Chinese intervention like in the Korean War was a major consideration to be explored. [6]

Korean War 1950–1953 war between North Korea and South Korea

The Korean War was a war between North Korea and South Korea. The war began on 25 June 1950 when North Korea invaded South Korea following a series of clashes along the border.

Set up

The exercise was staffed by the State Department, Department of Defense, the Central Intelligence Agency, and the Joint Chiefs of Staff. [1] Although working-level government officers played the actual simulation, cabinet-level senior advisors reviewed the resulting policy conclusions. [2]

Joint Chiefs of Staff body of senior uniformed leaders in the U. S. Department of Defense who advise the President on military matters

The Joint Chiefs of Staff (JCS) is a body of senior uniformed leaders in the United States Department of Defense who advise the President of the United States, the Secretary of Defense, the Homeland Security Council and the National Security Council on military matters. The composition of the Joint Chiefs of Staff is defined by statute and consists of the Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (CJCS), Vice Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff (VCJCS), the Military Service Chiefs from the Army, Marine Corps, Navy, and Air Force, and the Chief of the National Guard Bureau, all appointed by the President following Senate confirmation. Each of the individual Military Service Chiefs, outside their Joint Chiefs of Staff obligations, works directly for the Secretary of the Military Department concerned, i.e., Secretary of the Army, Secretary of the Navy, and the Secretary of the Air Force.

Participants

Participants were high-ranking officials standing in to represent both domestic and foreign characters; stand-ins were chosen for their expertise concerning those they were called upon to represent. The games were supervised by a Control appointed to oversee both sides. [1]

The Blue Team in Sigma I-64 represented both the United States and South Vietnam. Its players included:

The Red Team represented the communist nations of the People's Republic of China, the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, the Viet Cong, and the Pathet Lao. Participants for the Red Team are unknown. [1] The Red Team at times contained the Yellow Team for the People's Republic of China, the Brown Team for the Democratic Republic of Vietnam, the Black Team for the Viet Cong, [1] and Green for the USSR. [2]

Simulation

The projected start date for the game was 15 June 1964. The hypothetical triggering incident was a U.S. flier being shot down and captured, exposing America's role in the stealthily escalating war. Deputy United States Secretary of State Seymour Weiss critiqued the war game thus: "The eventual capture of a US airman is a high probability and would give 'hard' evidence of US involvement". [1] Coincidentally, in reality it turned out that U.S. Navy pilot Charles Frederick Klusmann was actually shot down over the Kingdom of Laos on 6 June 1964 to become the first American aviator downed. [7]

A summary of the war game results noted that intervention in Vietnam would "lay a basis" for similar actions against Cuba. Because the Viet Cong insurgency was within the internationally acceptable limits of covert warfare, an open war waged against them would become an actual war. As a response, the Soviet Union and the People's Republic of China could be expected to change their methods of Cold War opposition to the United States. Adverse public opinion both domestic and foreign would plague the U.S. as a result. [1]

One conclusion to be drawn was that air power would have little effect on North Vietnam's ability to wage war. [8] It was concluded that the North Vietnamese had to ship only 15 tons per day of military supplies to the Viet Cong to maintain the southern insurrection. [9] Even more dismaying, despite a commitment of a projected 500,000 American troops to fighting in Vietnam, the communists were deemed to have won. [10] Prominent military historian H. R. McMaster terms the results as "eerily prophetic". [11]

Results

In Sigma I-64's wake, Robert McNamara disregarded the war game results in favor of an analytically statistical approach. [12] Walter Rostow argued that American air power need not destroy the North Vietnamese ability to support an insurrection in South Vietnam, but only discourage that support. A follow-up war game, Sigma II-64, was scheduled to test his theory. [13]

See also

Notes

  1. 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 Allen, pp. 193–208.
  2. 1 2 3 Gibbons, pp. 17–19.
  3. ↑ Allen, pp. 31–32.
  4. ↑ Logevall, p. 123.
  5. ↑ Allen, pp. 193–206.
  6. ↑ Goldstein, pp. 141–142.
  7. ↑ Anthony, Sexton, pp. 109–110.
  8. ↑ McNamara, VanDeMark, p. 153.
  9. ↑ Fawcett, p. 28.
  10. ↑ Milne, pp. 145–146.
  11. ↑ McMaster, p. 283.
  12. ↑ McMaster, p. 91.
  13. ↑ McMaster, pp. 155–156.

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