Solar cycle 25

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Solar cycle 25
Solar Cycle 25 prediction and progression.png
ISES Solar Cycle 25 Sunspot Number Progression and Predictions as of January 2024
Sunspot data
Start dateDecember 2019
Max count125 (smoothed)
Max count monthJune 2023 (progressive) [1]
Min count1.8
Cycle chronology
Previous cycle Solar cycle 24 (12/2008-12/2019)

Solar cycle 25 is the current solar cycle, the 25th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. It began in December 2019 with a minimum smoothed sunspot number of 1.8. [2] It is expected to continue until about 2030. [3] [4]

Contents

Predictions

Widely varying predictions regarding the strength of cycle 25 ranged from very weak with suggestions of slow slide in to a Maunder minimum like state [5] [6] to a weak cycle similar to previous cycle 24 [7] and even a strong cycle. [8] [9] [10] Upton and Hathaway predicted that the weakness of cycle 25 would make it part of the Modern Gleissberg Minimum. [5]

The Solar Cycle 25 Prediction Panel predicted in December 2019 [11] that solar cycle 25 will be similar to solar cycle 24 , with the preceding solar cycle minimum in April 2020 (± 6 months), and the number of sunspots reaching a (smoothed) maximum of 115 in July 2025 (± 8 months). This prediction is in line with the current general agreement in the scientific literature, which holds that solar cycle 25 will be weaker than average (i.e. weaker than during the exceptionally strong Modern Maximum). [7] However, observations from 2020 to 2022, the first three years of the cycle, significantly exceed predicted values. [12]

Cycle 25 predictions
SourceDateCycle maxCycle startCycle end
Thompson, M.J. et al. [4] August 2014Q4 2019
Zharkova, V. et al 2014, 2015. [13] (Northumbria U.)October 201465 (80% of cycle 24)
Upton, L.A. and Hathaway, D.H. [5] (Solar Observatories Group, Stanford University)December 201878 (95% of cycle 24)Late 2020 – Early 2021
Xu, J.C. et al. [8] (Chinese Academy of Sciences)August 2018168.5 ± 16.3 (2024)October 2020
Bhowmik, P. and Nandy, D. [7] (IISER Kolkata)December 2018124 ± 15 (2023–2025)2020after 2031
Ozguc, A. et al. [9] (Harvard U-ty)December 2018154 ± 12 (2023.2±1.1)
NOAA / SSRC [14] April 2019117 ± 23 (2023–2026)mid-2019 – late 2020
NASA [15] June 201970 ± 29 (30–50% lower than Cycle 24 (2025))2020
NOAA / SSRC (update) [16] December 2019115 ± 10 (July 2025)April 2020 (± 6 months)
Mcintosh et al. [17] [18] June 2020229 ± 25
Mcintosh et al. [17] [18] December 2020190 ± 20
National Center for Atmospheric Research [19] December 2020233
de Jager, C. and Duhau, S. [20] December 2020160 ± 8 (2025 ± 1)
Actual, for comparisonPresent>125December 2019-

Progress

Time vs. solar latitude diagram of the radial component of the solar magnetic field (supersynoptic map or "butterfly" diagram) for cycle 24 based on the (zero-point corrected) integer rotation synoptic maps from GONG. Blue/red show negative/positive polarity fields scaled between +-5 Gauss. Two black arrows mark approximate location of two latitudinal bands of cycle 25. Data are acquired by GONG instruments operated by NISP/NSO/AURA/NSF. Cycle24 25 butterfly.jpg
Time vs. solar latitude diagram of the radial component of the solar magnetic field (supersynoptic map or “butterfly” diagram) for cycle 24 based on the (zero-point corrected) integer rotation synoptic maps from GONG. Blue/red show negative/positive polarity fields scaled between ±5 Gauss. Two black arrows mark approximate location of two latitudinal bands of cycle 25. Data are acquired by GONG instruments operated by NISP/NSO/AURA/NSF.

As of April 2018, the Sun showed signs of a reverse magnetic polarity sunspot appearing and beginning this solar cycle. [21] It is typical during the transition from one cycle to the next to experience a period where sunspots of both polarities exist (during the solar minimum). The polarward reversed polarity sunspots suggested that a transition to cycle 25 was in process. [22] The first cycle 25 sunspot may have appeared in early April 2018 [23] [24] or even December 2016. [22]

In November 2019, two reversed polarity sunspots appeared, possibly signaling the onset of cycle 25. [25] [26]

Nandy et al., analyzed the polarity orientation of bipolar magnetic regions observed in December 2019 and concluded that magnetic regions with the underlying orientation of solar cycle 25 toroidal field component were brewing in the solar convection zone, representing early signs of the new cycle. [27]

Supersynoptic (time vs. solar latitude) map of the radial component of the solar magnetic field for cycles 24-25 based on observations from the Global Oscillations Network Group (GONG) shows magnetic activity of cycle 25 beginning November 2019 at about 30 degree latitudes in both solar hemispheres. [28] A more recent supersynoptic map is available. [29]

The following table gives the number of days so far in cycle 25 against the number up to the same point in cycle 24, which have passed various thresholds for the numbers of sunspots.

CountsSC 24
to Feb 14 2013
SC 25
to Feb 14 2024
≥75416610
≥100254429
≥125127271
≥15046136
≥175646
≥200010
≥22502


As at Feb 14 2024, solar cycle 25 is averaging 28% more spots per day than solar cycle 24 at the same point in the cycle (Feb 14 2013).

Year 1 of SC25 (Dec 2019 to Nov 2020) averaged 101% more spots per day than year 1 of SC24.
Year 2 of SC25 (Dec 2020 to Nov 2021) averaged 7% more spots per day than year 2 of SC24.
Year 3 of SC25 (Dec 2021 to Nov 2022) averaged 8% more spots per day than year 3 of SC24.
Year 4 of SC25 (Dec 2022 to Nov 2023) averaged 41% more spots per day than year 4 of SC24.
Year 5 of SC25 (Dec 1 2023 to Feb 14 2024) is currently averaging 70% more spots per day than the corresponding period of SC24.

Events

The strongest flares of Solar Cycle 25 (above M5.0 class) and related events

ClassDateSunspot
region
Radio B.SR Storm CME GM Storm
X6.372024-02-233590R3-No-
X5.012023‑12‑313536R3S1Yes-
X3.382024-02-093575R3S2Yes-
X2.872023‑12‑143514R3S1YesG1
X2.562024-02-163576R3S0Yes-
X2.282023‑02‑173229R3-Yes-
X2.252022‑04‑202992R3-Yes-
X2.072023‑03‑033234R3-Yes-
X1.982023‑01‑093184R3-No-
X1.92024-02-213590R3-No-
X1.72024-02-223590R3-No-
X1.632023‑08‑053386R3S1Yes-
X1.592021‑07‑032838R3-Yes-
X1.512022‑05‑103006R3-No-
X1.512023‑08‑073386R3S1Yes-
X1.382022‑03‑302975R3S1YesG1
X1.272023‑03‑293256R3-Yes-
X1.222023‑01‑063182R3-No-
X1.172022‑04‑172994R3-Yes-
X1.162023‑02‑113217R3-No-
X1.132022‑04‑302994R3-Yes-
X1.132022‑05‑033006R3-No-
X1.122024-03-233614R3S2YesG4
X1.122024-03-293615R3-Yes ?
X1.112023‑06‑203341R3-Yes-
X1.082023‑07‑023354R3-No-
X1.062022‑10‑023110R3-Yes-
X1.062023‑01‑103186R3-Yes-
X1.02021‑10‑282887R3S1Yes-
M9.822023‑11‑283500R2-YesG3
M9.762024-03-283615R2-No-
M9.672022‑03‑312975R2-Yes-
M9.662022‑04‑212993R2-Yes-
M9.622023‑05‑163310R2-No-
M9.422024-03-303615R2-Yes ?
M9.392024-03-303615R2-Yes ?
M9.042024-02-103576R2S1Yes-
M8.962023‑05‑203311R2-No-
M8.772022‑10‑023110R2-YesG1
M8.722023‑09‑213435R2-YesG2
M8.672022‑08‑293088R2-No-
M8.622023‑02‑283234R2-Yes-
M8.232023‑09‑203435R2-No-
M7.922022‑09‑163098R2-No-
M7.482024-03-203615R2-No-
M7.432024-03-103599R2S0Yes-
M7.292022‑04‑202992R2-Yes-
M7.272023‑05‑033293R2-No-
M7.242022‑08‑263089R2-Yes-
M7.122023‑05‑013288R2-No-
M7.12024-03-283615R2-No-
M6.972023‑07‑123372R2-No-
M6.972023‑12‑153514R2-YesG1
M6.832023‑07‑113368R2-No-
M6.832024-01-293559R2S2Yes-
M6.772024-03-183615R2-No-
M6.732022‑08‑283088R2-Yes-
M6.572023‑05‑093296R2-Yes-
M6.52023‑05‑203311R2-No-
M6.52024-02-123576R2-No-
M6.392023‑02‑073213R2-No-
M6.362022‑12‑143165R2-No-
M6.352023‑02‑253229R2S1YesG3
M6.22022‑09‑163098R2-No-
M6.142024-03-283615R2-No-
M6.032023‑01‑153191R2-Yes-
M6.012023‑09‑033413R2-Yes-
M5.862022‑10‑013110R2-YesG1
M5.862023‑07‑113372R2-No-
M5.842023‑12‑143514R2-YesG1
M5.82023‑03‑063243R2-Yes-
M5.762022‑05‑043004R2-No-
M5.742022‑12‑153165R2-No-
M5.722023‑07‑173363R2S2Yes-
M5.682023‑05‑203311R2-No-
M5.672023‑01‑113184R2-Yes-
M5.542022‑05‑193014R2-No-
M5.512023‑08‑063386R2-Yes-
M5.52022‑01‑202929R2S1Yes-
M5.492023‑12‑083511R2-No-
M5.472023-04-113639R2 ?Yes ?
M5.412023‑03‑303256R2S0Yes-
M5.392022‑08‑263089R2-No-
M5.392023‑05‑193311R2-No-
M5.322022‑05‑043006R2-No-
M5.272022‑03‑043234R2-Yes-
M5.252022‑11‑073141R2-No-
M5.22023‑05‑203311R2-No-
M5.182024-02-073575R2-Yes-
M5.152023‑01‑103186R2S0Yes-
M5.122024-01-233559R2-Yes-
M5.092023‑02‑213234R2-Yes-
M5.082022‑08‑163078R2-No-
M5.042023‑03‑053243R2-No-
M5.022023‑05‑093296R2-No-


Solar flares by year
10
20
30
40
50
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
  •   M5-M9
  •   X1-X5
  •   X5-X9
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity [30]
100
200
300
400
2019
2020
2021
2022
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
2028
2029
2030
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

2020

Solar flares in 2020 [31]
10
20
30
40
50
60
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   C
  •   M
  •   X
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2020 [31]
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

On 29 May, the first C-class solar flares of Solar Cycle 25 took place, as well as the first M-class flare. Solar activity continued to increase in the following months, especially abruptly in October, with flares taking place on a near-daily basis by November. On 29 November, an M4.4 flare, the strongest of the cycle to date, took place, possibly indicating that the solar cycle would be more active than initially thought. [32]

On 8 December, a small coronal mass ejection was found heading directly towards Earth shortly after a strong C-class solar flare, hitting the planet on 9–10 December and causing bright aurorae at high latitudes. [33] [34]

2021

Solar flares in 2021 [35]
50
100
150
200
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   C
  •   M
  •   X
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2021 [35]
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

The first X-class solar flare of the cycle took place on 3 July, peaking at X1.59. [36]

On 22 July, a total of six different active regions were seen on the solar disk for the first time since 6 September 2017. [37]

On 9 October, a M1.6 class solar flare erupted sending a coronal mass ejection that hit Earth on 12 October, triggering a (moderate) G2 geomagnetic storm. [38]

The second X-class flare of the solar cycle erupted on 28 October, producing a CME and a S1 solar radiation storm. [39] Reports initially predicted that the CME could graze Earth, [39] however geomagnetic storms on 30–31 October only reached a moderate Kp index of 4. [40]

On 3 and 4 November, the Kp index reached 8−, equivalent to a G4 geomagnetic storm. [41] This was the most intense geomagnetic storm to hit Earth since September 2017.

2022

Solar flares in 2022 [30]
100
200
300
400
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   C
  •   M
  •   X
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2022 [30]
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

In late March, sunspot region 2975 released X1.3 and M9.6 flares, the former causing a G1 geomagnetic storm on 31 March despite being near the solar limb. [42] The region rotated out of view of Earth on 5 April, but helioseismic measurements on April 8 showed it still active on the far side of the Sun. [43] On 12 April, a Coronal Mass Ejection on the far side likely erupted from the region, [44] with helioseismic measurements showing the region to have intensified since crossing over the limb. As the region began rotating into view from Earth, a possibly X-class flare occurred on 15 April. [45]

After rotating to the visible hemisphere of the Sun, the regions of the sunspot complex were designated 2993 through 2996. On 17 April, sunspot group 2994 released an X1.2 flare. [46] [47] However, the complex's activity subsided slightly in the next few days. [48] While crossing the solar limb, sunspot region 2992 emitted M7.3 and X2.2 flares, the latter being the strongest of the cycle up to that point. [48]

2023

Solar flares in 2023 [49]
100
200
300
400
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   C
  •   M
  •   X
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2023 [49]
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

On 24 March, an intense geomagnetic storm hit Earth unexpectedly, reaching a level of G4 and producing auroras as far south as New Mexico. A minor CME from an M1 flare was predicted to hit the day earlier, but the timing and intensity were unexpected. [50] Later, on 23 and 24 April, more G4 storms hit Earth, on the former day being tied with several days in solar cycle 24 for the strongest storm since 2005. [51] Auroras were visible as far south as San Antonio, Texas. [52]

On 14 December, a solar flare measuring X2.87 was recorded from sunspot region 3514, making it the strongest solar flare of the cycle for just 17 days, [53] as on 31 December, a solar flare measuring X5.0 was recorded from sunspot 3536. [54]

2024

Solar flares in 2024 [55]
50
100
150
200
250
300
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   C
  •   M
  •   X
Number of days at geomagnetic storm intensity in 2024 [55]
10
20
30
40
Jan
Feb
Mar
Apr
May
Jun
Jul
Aug
Sep
Oct
Nov
Dec
  •   Kp1
  •   Kp2
  •   Kp3
  •   Kp4
  •   Kp5 (G1)
  •   Kp6 (G2)
  •   Kp7 (G3)
  •   Kp8 (G4)
  •   Kp9 (G5)

On 9 February, region 3575 produced an X3.4 flare, the second strongest of the cycle up to that point, causing radiation levels to briefly exceed S2 over the following days. [56] On 12 February, after rotating to the far side of the Sun, the same region released a strong CME. As it was invisible from Earth, it was impossible to assess the flare's strength, but it nonetheless caused proton storm levels to briefly reach S2 again on February 12–13.

On 22 February, region 3590 produced a solar flare measuring X6.3. [57]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar flare</span> Eruption of electromagnetic radiation

A solar flare is a relatively intense, localized emission of electromagnetic radiation in the Sun's atmosphere. Flares occur in active regions and are often, but not always, accompanied by coronal mass ejections, solar particle events, and other eruptive solar phenomena. The occurrence of solar flares varies with the 11-year solar cycle.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Space weather</span> Branch of space physics and aeronomy

Space weather is a branch of space physics and aeronomy, or heliophysics, concerned with the varying conditions within the Solar System and its heliosphere. This includes the effects of the solar wind, especially on the Earth's magnetosphere, ionosphere, thermosphere, and exosphere. Though physically distinct, space weather is analogous to the terrestrial weather of Earth's atmosphere. The term "space weather" was first used in the 1950s and popularized in the 1990s. Later, it prompted research into "space climate", the large-scale and long-term patterns of space weather.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Geomagnetic storm</span> Disturbance of the Earths magnetosphere

A geomagnetic storm, also known as a magnetic storm, is a temporary disturbance of the Earth's magnetosphere caused by a solar wind shock wave.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar cycle</span> Periodic change in the Suns activity

The solar cycle, also known as the solar magnetic activity cycle, sunspot cycle, or Schwabe cycle, is a nearly periodic 11-year change in the Sun's activity measured in terms of variations in the number of observed sunspots on the Sun's surface. Over the period of a solar cycle, levels of solar radiation and ejection of solar material, the number and size of sunspots, solar flares, and coronal loops all exhibit a synchronized fluctuation from a period of minimum activity to a period of a maximum activity back to a period of minimum activity.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Coronal mass ejection</span> Ejecta from the Suns corona

A coronal mass ejection (CME) is a significant ejection of magnetic field and accompanying plasma mass from the Sun's corona into the heliosphere. CMEs are often associated with solar flares and other forms of solar activity, but a broadly accepted theoretical understanding of these relationships has not been established.

A solar storm is a disturbance on the Sun, which can emanate outward across the heliosphere, affecting the entire Solar System, including Earth and its magnetosphere, and is the cause of space weather in the short-term with long-term patterns comprising space climate.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Coronal hole</span> Cool, tenuous region of the Suns corona

A coronal hole is a temporary region of relatively cool, less dense plasma in the solar corona where the Sun's magnetic field extends into interplanetary space as an open field. Compared to the corona's usual closed magnetic field that arches between regions of opposite magnetic polarity, the open magnetic field of a coronal hole allows solar wind to escape into space at a much quicker rate. This results in decreased temperature and density of the plasma at the site of a coronal hole, as well as an increased speed in the average solar wind measured in interplanetary space. If streams of high-speed solar wind from coronal holes encounter the Earth, they can cause major displays of aurorae. Near solar minimum, when activity such as coronal mass ejections is less frequent, such streams are the main cause of geomagnetic storms and associated aurorae.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar cycle 24</span> Solar activity from December 2008 to December 2019

Solar cycle 24 is the most recently completed solar cycle, the 24th since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. It began in December 2008 with a minimum smoothed sunspot number of 2.2, and ended in December 2019. Activity was minimal until early 2010. It reached its maximum in April 2014 with a 23 months smoothed sunspot number of 81.8. This maximum value was substantially lower than other recent solar cycles, down to a level which had not been seen since cycles 12 to 15 (1878-1923).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">March 1989 geomagnetic storm</span> An exceptionally powerful geomagnetic storm that struck the Earth on March 13, 1989

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar cycle 20</span> Solar activity from October 1964 to March 1976

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar cycle 22</span> Solar activity from September 1986 to August 1996

Solar cycle 22 was the 22nd solar cycle since 1755, when extensive recording of solar sunspot activity began. The solar cycle lasted 9.9 years, beginning in September 1986 and ending in August 1996. The maximum smoothed sunspot number observed during the solar cycle was 212.5, and the starting minimum was 13.5. During the minimum transit from solar cycle 22 to 23, there were a total of 309 days with no sunspots.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar cycle 23</span> Solar activity from August 1996 to December 2008

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bastille Day solar storm</span> Solar storm on 14-16 July 2000

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<span class="mw-page-title-main">2003 Halloween solar storms</span> Series of intense solar storms in 2003

The Halloween solar storms were a series of solar storms involving solar flares and coronal mass ejections that occurred from mid-October to early November 2003, peaking around October 28–29. This series of storms generated the largest solar flare ever recorded by the GOES system, modeled as strong as X45.

Solar observation is the scientific endeavor of studying the Sun and its behavior and relation to the Earth and the remainder of the Solar System. Deliberate solar observation began thousands of years ago. That initial era of direct observation gave way to telescopes in the 1600s followed by satellites in the twentieth century.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Solar phenomena</span> Natural phenomena within the Suns atmosphere

Solar phenomena are natural phenomena which occur within the atmosphere of the Sun. They take many forms, including solar wind, radio wave flux, solar flares, coronal mass ejections, coronal heating and sunspots.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">August 1972 solar storms</span> Solar storms during solar cycle 20

The solar storms of August 1972 were a historically powerful series of solar storms with intense to extreme solar flare, solar particle event, and geomagnetic storm components in early August 1972, during solar cycle 20. The storm caused widespread electric‐ and communication‐grid disturbances through large portions of North America as well as satellite disruptions. On 4 August 1972 the storm caused the accidental detonation of numerous U.S. naval mines near Haiphong, North Vietnam. The coronal mass ejection (CME)'s transit time from the Sun to the Earth is the fastest ever recorded.

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