Statistics of Deadly Quarrels

Last updated
Statistics of Deadly Quarrels
AuthorLewis Fry Richardson
LanguageEnglish
Subject War
PublisherBoxwood Press
Publication date
1960
Media typePrint
Pages373
OCLC 606099616

Statistics of Deadly Quarrels is a 1960 book by English mathematician and physicist Lewis Fry Richardson 11 October 1881 - 30 September 1953 published by Boxwood Press. The book is a mathematical and social science study on the origins of war; topics that informed much of Richardson's research throughout his life. [1] [2] [3]

Contents

The book received mixed reviews in academia, with overall critical consensus that the works therein are important pioneering endeavors. [4] [2] [5]

Background

The book can be seen as a follow-up to Richardson's book Arms and Insecurity (1949) with a number of reviewers commenting on both books, treating them as a related set. [2] [5] It was published posthumously, based on published and unpublished works of Richardson, and was edited by American political scientists Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau. [6] [1] [2] [5] [3]

Contents

In Statistics of Deadly Quarrels Richardson presented data on most conflicts, in particular, wars, from AD 1820 to 1949. [7] [8] He hypothesized a base 10 logarithmic scale for conflicts (not just wars but at the bottom of the scale, even simple homicides). He illustrated the fact that there are many more small fights, in which only a few people die, than large ones that kill many. While no conflict's size can be predicted beforehand and it is impossible to give an upper limit to the series, overall they do form a Poisson distribution. [7] [9]

Richardson also attempted to correlate factors such as economics, language, and religion with the causes of war. Most proved insignificant, except religion; data indicated that countries with differing religions are more likely to engage in hostilities. [7] [8] [9] Some of his findings suggested that Christian nations participated in an above-average number of hostilities, particularly against Islamic nations; [7] and that Spanish speakers tended to war against one another more than other language speakers, while Chinese speakers fought against one another less than expected. (Here Richardson criticizes individualism and praises collectivism.) [4] There are also suggestions that countries under similar governments are less likely to fight one another (see also democratic peace theory [10] ), and that fighting is "infectious". [3] [9] The neighbors of belligerent countries are likely to be involved. Nationalism is shown to reduce the chances of civil wars while increasing the chances of international warfare. [3] [9] The question whether world government might pacify the world the author leaves undefined: "There are arguments both ways." Revolts and civil wars remain possible. National propaganda pacifies the nation by directing the hates of the population outwards but the world state, being world-wide, cannot be pacified in this manner. [11]

Economic factors explained only 10 percent of the causes, which contradicts the expectations from the Marxist theory, although this interpretation has been subject to criticism, as one of the reviewers noted that arguably Richardson's data can be taken to show that economic factors contributed to two-thirds of the causes. [4] [9]

Richardson's data also suggested that the larger the war, the more exponentially deadly it would be; an observation which has been considered a warning against World War III. [7]

Reception

The book received mixed reviews in academia, with many reviewers noting that Richardson's book, or books, can be debated and criticized, but are arguably an important pioneering endeavor. [4] [2] [5] David Gold reviewing the book for the American Sociological Review in 1962 concluded that "one cannot help but be impressed by [Richardson's] bold imagination. The heuristic value of this work can prove to be great. Nevertheless, this work is science in the most superficial state." [8]

Among the more positive takes, writing for Science in 1960, Paul Kecskemeti  [ hu ] called it "monumental" and "an important landmark" in the quest to develop mathematical models encompassing complex social situations. [9] Sociologist Philip C. Sagi in his 1961 review of the book for the Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science called it a valuable addition to the sociology of conflict. [1] The same year, an anonymous reviewer for the Journal of the American Statistical Association noted that the volumes "establish Richardson as an important precursor.... in the mathematical analysis of conflict". [12] A year later, Ian Sutherland in the Journal of the Royal Statistical Society praised the book as a "remarkable pioneering achievement in a field which many would have regarded as not amenable to mathematical treatment" and "a comprehensive and highly ingenious descriptive analysis of past wars". [13]

On the other hand, in 1962, American sociologist Amitai Etzioni in the American Journal of Sociology was rather critical of the work, calling it a "poor" use of mathematical models in sociology. [3]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Harold Lasswell</span> American political scientist (1902–1978)

Harold Dwight Lasswell was an American political scientist and communications theorist. He earned his bachelor's degree in philosophy and economics and his Ph.D. from the University of Chicago. He was a professor of law at Yale University. He served as president of the American Political Science Association, American Society of International Law, and World Academy of Art and Science.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Lewis Fry Richardson</span> English meteorologist and mathematician (1881–1953)

Lewis Fry Richardson, FRS was an English mathematician, physicist, meteorologist, psychologist, and pacifist who pioneered modern mathematical techniques of weather forecasting, and the application of similar techniques to studying the causes of wars and how to prevent them. He is also noted for his pioneering work concerning fractals and a method for solving a system of linear equations known as modified Richardson iteration.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">James Samuel Coleman</span> American sociologist (1926–1995)

James Samuel Coleman was an American sociologist, theorist, and empirical researcher, based chiefly at the University of Chicago.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Thomas Schelling</span> American economist (1921–2016)

Thomas Crombie Schelling was an American economist and professor of foreign policy, national security, nuclear strategy, and arms control at the School of Public Policy at University of Maryland, College Park. He was also co-faculty at the New England Complex Systems Institute.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Quincy Wright</span> American political scientist

Philip Quincy Wright was an American political scientist based at the University of Chicago known for his pioneering work and expertise in international law, international relations, and security studies. He headed the Causes of War project at the University of Chicago, which resulted in the prominent 1942 multi-volume book A Study of War.

Quantitative history is a method of historical research that uses quantitative, statistical and computer resources. It is a type of the social science history and has four major journals: Historical Methods, Journal of Interdisciplinary History, the Social Science History, and Cliodynamics: The Journal of Quantitative History and Cultural Evolution.

<i>American Sociological Review</i> Bi-monthly peer-reviewed academic journal

The American Sociological Review is a bi-monthly peer-reviewed academic journal covering all aspects of sociology. It is published by SAGE Publications on behalf of the American Sociological Association. It was established in 1936. It is along with American Journal of Sociology considered one of the top journals in sociology.

<i>Chaos: Making a New Science</i> Nonfiction book by James Gleick

Chaos: Making a New Science is a debut non-fiction book by James Gleick that initially introduced the principles and early development of the chaos theory to the public. It was a finalist for the National Book Award and the Pulitzer Prize in 1987, and was shortlisted for the Science Book Prize in 1989. The book was published on October 29, 1987 by Viking Books.

William Anthony Gamson was a professor of Sociology at Boston College, where he was also the co-director of the Media Research and Action Project (MRAP). He is the author of numerous books and articles on political discourse, the mass-media and social movements from as early as the 1960s. His influential works include Power and Discontent (1968), The Strategy of Social Protest (1975), Encounters with Unjust Authority (1982) and Talking Politics (2002), as well as numerous editions of SIMSOC.

The following events related to sociology occurred in the 1980s.

Lewis Samuel Feuer was an American sociologist. Initially a committed Marxist, he became a neo-conservative.

Jack Nusan Porter is an American writer, sociologist, human rights and social activist, and former treasurer and vice-president of the International Association of Genocide Scholars. He is a former assistant professor of social science at Boston University and a former research associate at Harvard's Ukrainian Research Institute. Currently, he is a research associate at the Davis Center for Russian and Eurasian Studies at Harvard University, where he conducts research on Israeli-Russian relations. Some of his research focuses include the life of Golda Meir, the application of mathematical and statistical models to predict genocide and terrorism, and modes of resistance to genocide. His most recent books are Is Sociology Dead?, Social Theory and Social Praxis in a Post-Modern Age, The Genocidal Mind, The Jew as Outsider, and Confronting History and Holocaust.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Theodore Wilbur Anderson</span> American mathematician and statistician

Theodore Wilbur Anderson was an American mathematician and statistician who specialized in the analysis of multivariate data. He was born in Minneapolis, Minnesota. He was on the faculty of Columbia University from 1946 until moving to Stanford University in 1967, becoming Emeritus Professor in 1988. He served as Editor of Annals of Mathematical Statistics from 1950 to 1952. He was elected President of the Institute of Mathematical Statistics in 1962.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">George A. Lundberg</span> American sociologist

George Andrew Lundberg was an American sociologist.

Paul H. Lewis is professor emeritus and former Chair of Political Science at Tulane University. Lewis received his BA from the University of Florida and PhD from UNC Chapel Hill. In 1991, he helped organize the Louisiana chapter of the National Association of Scholars.

Margaret Jarman Hagood was an American sociologist and demographer who "helped steer sociology away from the armchair and toward the calculator". She wrote the books Mothers of the South (1939) and Statistics for Sociologists (1941), and later became president of the Population Association of America and of the Rural Sociological Society.

Raymond Leslie Buell was an American social scientist. He was an assistant professor at Harvard University until 1927 when he became research director at the Foreign Policy Association. He later became president of the Foreign Policy Association.

Primitive Rebels is a 1959 book by Eric Hobsbawm on pre-modern European social movements and social banditry.

<i>Armageddon in Waco</i> Anthology on the Waco siege

Armageddon in Waco: Critical Perspectives on the Branch Davidian Conflict is a 1995 non-fiction anthology book on the Waco siege edited by Stuart A. Wright. It was published by the University of Chicago Press.

Michael Spagat is an American–British economist and researcher of war and armed conflict. He is currently a professor of economics at Royal Holloway, University of London. He is also a board member of Every Casualty Counts and Action on Armed Violence.

References

  1. 1 2 3 Sagi, Philip C. (July 1961). "LEWIS F. RICHARDSON. Statistics of Deadly Quarrels. Edited by Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau. Pp. xxv, 307. Chicago: Quadrangle Books, 1960. $12.50". The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science. 336 (1): 209. doi:10.1177/000271626133600166. ISSN   0002-7162. S2CID   145274420.
  2. 1 2 3 4 5 Bull, Hedley (July 1961). "Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of the Causes and Origins of War and Statistics of Deadly Quarrels". International Affairs. 37 (3): 350. doi:10.2307/2610948. ISSN   1468-2346. JSTOR   2610948.
  3. 1 2 3 4 5 Etzioni, Amitai (1962). "Review of Arms and Insecurity.; Statistics of Deadly Quarrels., Lewis F. Richardson". American Journal of Sociology. 67 (4): 464–466. doi:10.1086/223172. ISSN   0002-9602. JSTOR   2775148.
  4. 1 2 3 4 Eckhardt, William (1986). "Review of Statistics of Deadly Quarrels". Peace Research. 18 (1): 36–39. ISSN   0008-4697. JSTOR   23609715.
  5. 1 2 3 4 Moses, Lincoln E. (December 1961). "Discussions and Reviews : A review: Lewis F. Richardson, Arms and Insecurity and Statistics of Deadly Quarrels". Journal of Conflict Resolution. 5 (4): 390–394. doi:10.1177/002200276100500406. ISSN   0022-0027. S2CID   145486602.
  6. ↑ Lienau, C. C. (1959). "Review of Statistics of Deadly Quarrels; Arms and Insecurity: The Theory of Arms Races, Lewis Fry Richardson; The Arms Race; Inspection for Disarmament". Management Science. 6 (1): 134–140. ISSN   0025-1909. JSTOR   2627484.
  7. 1 2 3 4 5 Hayes, Brian (2002). "Computing Science: Statistics of Deadly Quarrels". American Scientist. 90 (1): 10–15. doi:10.1511/2002.13.3269. ISSN   0003-0996. JSTOR   27857587. S2CID   14288824.
  8. 1 2 3 Gold, David; Richardson, Lewis F.; Rashevsky, Nicolas; Trucco, Ernesto; Wright, Quincy; Lienau, Carl C. (April 1962). "Arms and Insecurity: A Mathematical Study of the Causes and Origins of War". American Sociological Review. 27 (2): 262. doi:10.2307/2089688. JSTOR   2089688.
  9. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Kecskemeti, P. (1960-12-30). "Statistics of Deadly Quarrels. Lewis F. Richardson. Quincy Wright and C. C. Lienau, Eds. Boxwood Press, Pittsburgh Pa.; Quadrangle Books, Chicago, Ill., 1960. xlvi + 373 pp. $12.50". Science. 132 (3444): 1931–1932. doi:10.1126/science.132.3444.1931. ISSN   0036-8075.
  10. ↑ Chan, Steve (2010-03-01). "Progress in the Democratic Peace Research Agenda". Oxford Research Encyclopedia of International Studies. doi:10.1093/acrefore/9780190846626.013.280. ISBN   978-0-19-084662-6 . Retrieved 2023-01-11.
  11. ↑ Richardson, Lewis F. (1960). Statistics of Deadly Quarrels, (London: William Clowes and Sons), p 190, https://archive.org/details/statisticsofdead0000rich/page/190/mode/2up?view=theater&q=government
  12. ↑ N., M.; Richardson, Lewis F. (June 1961). "Statistics of Deadly Quarrels". Journal of the American Statistical Association. 56 (294): 469. doi:10.2307/2282320. JSTOR   2282320.
  13. ↑ Sutherland, Ian (1962). "Statistics of Human Conflict". Journal of the Royal Statistical Society. Series A (General). 125 (3): 473–483. doi:10.2307/2982415. ISSN   0035-9238. JSTOR   2982415.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.