Tobias Adrian

Last updated

Tobias Adrian
TobiasAdrian.jpg
Born (1971-07-23) 23 July 1971 (age 53)
Kronberg, West Germany
Citizenship
  • American
  • German
Academic career
Field Economics
Institution IMF, Federal Reserve Bank of New York
Alma mater LSE (M.Sc. 1998), MIT (Ph.D. 2003)
Academic
advisors		 Olivier J. Blanchard and Stephen A. Ross [1]
Contributions yield curve, CoVaR
Website www.tobiasadrian.com

Tobias Adrian (born 23 July 1971) is a German and American economist who has been Financial Counsellor of the International Monetary Fund and Head of their Monetary and Capital Markets Department since 2017. [2] [3] [4] [5] He was previously employed at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York, where he was a Senior Vice President and the Associate Director of the Research and Statistics Group. His research covers aspects of risk to the wider economy of developments in capital markets. His work has covered the 2007–2008 financial crisis, [6] monetary policy transmission, [7] and the yield curve. [8]

Contents

Early life and education

Adrian was born in Kronberg, West Germany and attended Humboldtschule, Bad Homburg. [2] [5] After studying at Goethe University Frankfurt, Paris Dauphine University, and the London School of Economics, [5] he studied for a Ph.D. at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, graduating in 2003. His doctoral thesis was entitled "Learning, dynamics of beliefs, and asset pricing". [1]

Career

While working at the Federal Reserve, Adrian made substantial contributions to the role of financial intermediaries in monetary policy transmission, with Hyun-Song Shin. [7] [9] He also documented how the inversion of the yield curve can be viewed as a causal transmission channel for monetary policy tightening, with Hyun-Song Shin and Arturo Estrella  [ Wikidata ]. [10] This is based on earlier work with Estrella that documented the forecasting power of the yield curve. [8] Adrian also worked on widely adopted yield curve models with Richard Crump and Emanuel Moench  [ Wikidata ]. [11]

Together with Markus Brunnermeier of Princeton University, Adrian created one of the first measures of systemic risk, the CoVaR. [12] This measure, which takes into account spillover and contagion effects between asset classes and industries, was used to stress test banks following the great recession. [13]

Adrian has published extensively on the topic of market liquidity, including policy effects and its procyclical behavior. [14] [15] [16] [17] He has also written on the importance of the shadow banking system in capital markets, and its prominent role in the 2007–2008 financial crisis. [18]

More recently, Adrian has studied how financial conditions present asymmetric risks to GDP growth with Domenico Giannone  [ Wikidata ] and Nina Boyarchenko  [ Wikidata ]. [19] This work led to a novel model for economic forecasting, under which multimodal distributions (allowing both "good" and "bad" outcomes) arise naturally under tight financial conditions. [20] With Patrick Bolton and Alissa Kleinnijenhuis, Adrian has conducted a first empirical study of the costs and benefits of phasing out coal around the world, and documented a large net social gain on the order of trillions. [21] [22] [23] [24] Their work establishes a novel economic foundation for climate finance. [22] [23] [24] [25]

Selected works

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ricardo Reis</span> Portuguese economist (born 1978)

Ricardo A. M. R. Reis is a Portuguese economist who is currently the A. W. Phillips Professor of Economics at the London School of Economics. He works in macroeconomics, finance, and international economics and won the 2021 Yrjö Jahnsson Foundation medal awarded every two years by the European Economic Association for best economist under the age of 45. He writes a weekly op-ed for the Portuguese newspaper Expresso.

The Duke Endowment is a private foundation established in 1924 by industrialist and philanthropist James B. Duke. It supports selected programs of higher education, health care, children's welfare, and spiritual life in North Carolina and South Carolina.

<i>American Economic Review</i> Academic journal

The American Economic Review is a monthly peer-reviewed academic journal first published by the American Economic Association in 1911. The current editor-in-chief is Erzo FP Luttmer, a professor of economics at Dartmouth College. The journal is based in Pittsburgh.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Olivier Blanchard</span> French economist and professor (born 1948(

Olivier Jean Blanchard is a French economist and professor. He is Robert M. Solow Professor Emeritus of Economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, Professor of Economics at the Paris School of Economics, and as the C. Fred Bergsten Senior Fellow at the Peterson Institute for International Economics.

In economics and game theory, global games are games of incomplete information where players receive possibly-correlated signals of the underlying state of the world. Global games were originally defined by Carlsson and van Damme (1993).

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Rehn–Meidner model</span> Economic and wage policy model

The Rehn–Meidner model is an economic and wage policy model developed in 1951 by two economists at the research department of the Swedish Trade Union Confederation (LO), Gösta Rehn and Rudolf Meidner. The four main goals to be achieved were:

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Markus Brunnermeier</span> German economist

Markus Konrad Brunnermeier is an economist, who is the Edwards S. Sanford Professor of Economics at Princeton University.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dennis Snower</span> American-German economist (born 1950)

Dennis J. Snower is an American-German economist, specialising in macroeconomic theory and policy, labor economics, digital governance, social economics, and the psychology of economic decisions in "caring economics".

Nowcasting in economics is the prediction of the very recent past, the present, and the very near future state of an economic indicator. The term is a portmanteau of "now" and "forecasting" and originates in meteorology. Typical measures used to assess the state of an economy, such as gross domestic product (GDP) or inflation, are only determined after a delay and are subject to revision. In these cases, nowcasting such indicators can provide an estimate of the variables before the true data are known. Nowcasting models have been applied most notably in Central Banks, who use the estimates to monitor the state of the economy in real-time as a proxy for official measures.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Robin Burgess</span> British economist

Robin Burgess is a British economist who is Professor of Economics, Co-founder and Director of the International Growth Centre, as well as Co-Founder and Director of the Economics of Energy and the Environment (EEE) program at the London School of Economics and Political Science.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">David Autor</span> American economist

David H. Autor is an American economist, public policy scholar, and professor of economics at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), where he also acts as co-director of the School Effectiveness and Inequality Initiative. Although Autor has contributed to a variety of fields in economics his research generally focuses on topics from labor economics.

Pascaline Dupas is a French economist whose research focuses on development economics and applied microeconomics, with a particular interest in health, education, and savings. She is a professor in economics and public affairs at Princeton University and is a co-chair of the Poverty Action Lab's health sector. She received the Best Young French Economist Prize in 2015.

Petra Persson is a Swedish economist and Assistant Professor in Economics at Stanford University. Persson is best known for her work in Public and Labour Economics where her research focuses on the interactions between family decisions and the policy environment. Specifically, Persson's research agenda is centered on studying government policy, family wellbeing, and informal institutions.

Mary Amiti is an Australian economist and a vice president of the Microeconomic Studies Function at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York.

Raquel Fernández is an economist and currently the Julius Silver, Roslyn S. Silver and Enid Silver Winslow Professor of Economics at New York University. She is also a fellow of the Econometric Society.

Andrea Weber is an applied labor economist and currently a professor at the Central European University. She is a co-editor of the Journal of Public Economics.

The Bellagio Group is a group of international economists, senior central bankers and Treasury officials who meet annually to discuss international economic and financial issues.

Oleg Itskhoki is a Russian-American economist specialized on macroeconomics and international economics and a professor of economics at the Harvard University. He won the John Bates Clark Medal for his "fundamental contributions to both international finance and international trade" in 2022.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Enrico Perotti</span> Enrico Perotti is a established professor in Economics.

Enrico Camillo Perotti is a Dutch economist and Professor of International Finance at the University of Amsterdam since 1994. His research contributions span many fields such as (central) banking, corporate finance, political economy, redistributive growth, legal and financial history. His current research focuses on banking theory and financial regulation in a context of financial stagnation and a structural demand for safety. He has served as advisor for the European Commission, World Bank, IMF, Bank of England, Federal Reserve Bank, De Nederlandsche Bank and European Central Bank, and was member from 2020 to 2024 of the Advisory Scientific Committee of the General Board of the European Systemic Risk Board (ESRB). In 2024 he has been appointed senior advisor for financial stability to the Board of the Dutch Central Bank (DNB).

The price puzzle is a phenomenon in monetary economics observed within structural vector autoregression (SVAR) models. It refers to the counterintuitive result where a contractionary monetary policy shock—typically modeled as an increase in short-term interest rates—is followed by an increase, rather than a decrease, in the price level. This anomaly challenges conventional macroeconomic theories that predict a decline in prices as monetary tightening reduces aggregate demand.

References

  1. 1 2 Adrian, Tobias (2003). Learning, dynamics of beliefs, and asset pricing. DSpace@MIT Home (Thesis). hdl:1721.1/17571 . Retrieved 2 July 2021.
  2. 1 2 GmbH, Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung (29 November 2016). "Tobias Adrian: Ein Deutsch-Amerikaner wird neuer IWF-Finanzmarktchef" [A German-American becomes the new head of financial markets at the IMF]. Faz.net (in German). Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung . Retrieved 17 July 2021.
  3. ↑ "People: Tobias Adrian to replace Viñals at IMF". Central Banking. 30 November 2016. Retrieved 16 July 2021.
  4. ↑ "Tobias Adrian sustituirá a José Viñals en el FMI" [Tobias Adrian will replace José Viñals at the IMF]. el Economista. 26 November 2016. Retrieved 17 July 2021.
  5. 1 2 3 "Dr. Tobias Adrian". Goethe-Universität (in German). Retrieved 17 July 2021.
  6. ↑ "The Federal Reserve's Primary Dealer Credit Facility". Federal Reserve Bank of New York. Retrieved 22 July 2021.
  7. 1 2 Adrian, Tobias; Shin, Hyun Song (1 March 2009). "Money, Liquidity, and Monetary Policy". American Economic Review. 99 (2). American Economic Association: 600–605. doi:10.1257/aer.99.2.600. hdl: 10419/60788 . ISSN   0002-8282.
  8. 1 2 Adrian, Tobias; Estrella, Arturo (1 April 2008). "Monetary tightening cycles and the predictability of economic activity". Economics Letters. 99 (2): 260–264. doi:10.1016/j.econlet.2007.07.007. hdl: 10419/60761 . ISSN   0165-1765 . Retrieved 22 July 2021.
  9. ↑ Adrian, Tobias; Song Shin, Hyun (1 December 2009). Financial Intermediaries and Monetary Economics. Handbook of Monetary Economics. Vol. 3. pp. 601–650. doi:10.1016/B978-0-444-53238-1.00012-0. hdl:10419/60885. ISBN   9780444534705. ISSN   1573-4498 . Retrieved 22 July 2021.
  10. ↑ Adrian, Tobias; Estrella, Arturo; Shin, Hyun Song (23 April 2019). "Risk-taking channel of monetary policy". Financial Management. 48 (3). Wiley: 725–738. doi:10.1111/fima.12256. ISSN   0046-3892. S2CID   158109152.
  11. ↑ Adrian, Tobias; Crump, Richard K.; Moench, Emanuel (1 September 2013). "Pricing the term structure with linear regressions". Journal of Financial Economics. 110 (1): 110–138. doi:10.1016/j.jfineco.2013.04.009. hdl: 10419/60737 . ISSN   0304-405X . Retrieved 22 July 2021.
  12. ↑ Adrian & Brunnermeier 2016.
  13. ↑ "The revolution within". The Economist . 16 May 2009. Retrieved 2 July 2021.
  14. ↑ Adrian & Shin 2010.
  15. ↑ Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina (2018). "Liquidity policies and systemic risk". Journal of Financial Intermediation. 35. Elsevier BV: 45–60. doi:10.1016/j.jfi.2017.08.005. hdl: 10419/93660 . ISSN   1042-9573.
  16. ↑ Adrian, Tobias; Kiff, John; Shin, Hyun Song (2018). "Liquidity, Leverage, and Regulation 10 Years After the Global Financial Crisis". Annual Review of Financial Economics. 10 (1). Annual Reviews: 1–24. doi:10.1146/annurev-financial-110217-023113. ISSN   1941-1367. S2CID   158419019.
  17. ↑ "Tobias Adrian". Google Scholar. Retrieved 19 July 2021.
  18. ↑ Adrian et al. 2013.
  19. ↑ Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico (1 March 2019). "Vulnerable Growth". American Economic Review. 109 (4). American Economic Association: 1263–1289. doi:10.1257/aer.20161923. ISSN   0002-8282. S2CID   32943592.
  20. ↑ Adrian, Tobias; Boyarchenko, Nina; Giannone, Domenico (22 March 2021). "Multimodality in macrofinancial dynamics" (PDF). International Economic Review. 62 (2). Wiley: 861–886. doi:10.1111/iere.12501. hdl: 10419/210755 . ISSN   0020-6598. S2CID   234040176.
  21. ↑ Adrian, Tobias; Bolton, Patrick; Kleinnijenhuis, Alissa (1 June 2022). "The Great Carbon Arbitrage". International Monetary Fund. Working Paper No. 2022/107.
  22. 1 2 IFC-IEA (21 June 2023). Scaling up Private Finance for Clean Energy in Emerging and Developing Economies (PDF). International Energy Agency & International Finance Corporation.
  23. 1 2 Tett, Gillian (13 June 2022). "Killing coal: a new way to get investors involved". Financial Times.
  24. 1 2 GFANZ (June 2023). "Financing the Managed Phaseout of Coal-Fired Power Plants in Asia Pacific" (PDF). Glasgow Financial Alliance for Net Zero.
  25. ↑ Prasad, Ananthakrishnan (27 July 2022). "Mobilizing Private Climate Financing in Emerging Market and Developing Economies". IMF ELibrary.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.