Washington and Lee Mock Convention

Last updated
Washington and Lee Mock Convention
AbbreviationMock Con
Formation1908
Type Nonprofit Organization
Location
Membership
95% of the Student body
Website www.mockconvention.com

Washington and Lee Mock Convention is a simulated presidential nominating convention and is held every four years, during the early stages of the U.S. Presidential Primary, at Washington and Lee University. Although Oberlin College has the distinction of having the oldest student-run mock political convention in the country, W&L's convention has the reputation for being the most accurate. [1] It often receives gavel-to-gavel coverage on C-SPAN.

Contents

The convention simulates the nomination process for whichever party does not currently hold the presidency. Since its inception in 1908, the student body has been correct 20 out of 27 times, with only three incorrect predictions since 1948. [2] Since 1948, they have never incorrectly predicted the Republican nominee for president.

The 2008 Mock Convention projected Hillary Clinton as the Democratic nominee for that election year. The Mock Convention was mistaken, however, as Barack Obama was eventually elected as the nominee. [3] The 2012 Mock Convention projected Mitt Romney as the Republican nominee. [2] In 2016, the Mock Convention projected Donald Trump would be the Republican nominee on the first ballot. [4] In 2020, the Washington and Lee Mock Convention predicted incorrectly again, predicting Bernie Sanders would win the nomination, after his early victory in New Hampshire. Sanders dropped out of the race in April 2020, and Vice President Joe Biden would go on to win the nomination and the election.

Organization history

In the spring of 1908, William Jennings Bryan, a front-runner for the Democratic presidential candidacy, announced a visit to Lexington, Virginia, arousing interest in Washington and Lee's already political-minded campus. To capitalize on the furor, The Forum, W&L's leading political organization at the time, organized a replica of the upcoming Democratic Convention. The event was an enormous success, owing to the highly political student body: according to the Lexington Gazette, "The young gentlemen entered into the meeting with the zest of seasoned politicians plus the enthusiasm of collegians". After fierce (and occasionally chaotic) debate, the campus correctly predicted Bryan to be the 1908 Democratic nominee.

With the exception of the 1920 and 1944 elections, the Mock Convention has occurred every four years since the original 1908 election. The state delegations are known to go to great lengths for accuracy: the 1952 state chair for California, David Constine, developed a correspondence with California Governor Earl Warren, one of the leading candidates. As it rose in prominence, the convention gathered an impressive docket of speakers, including Harry S. Truman and former Vice President Alben W. Barkley. Delivering the April 30, 1956 keynote address in Doremus Gymnasium, broadcast live on the radio, then-Sen. Barkley, vice president during President Truman's 1949-53 term, who had been reelected to the Senate in 1954 without seniority as Kentucky's junior senator after having previously served as Majority Leader, was good-naturedly recounting this rise and fall from lowly congressman to senator to Leader to President of the Senate as vice president to return backbencher when he suddenly collapsed from a heart attack and died, his last words, paraphrased from Psalm 84:10: "I would rather be a servant in the house of the Lord than to sit in the seats of the mighty!" [5] [6] Since then, the motto of Mock Convention has been a slight alteration of these last words, "It is better to be of service than to sit in the seats of the mighty."

In addition to the convention itself, W&L hosts a large number of formal and informal celebrations in honor of the Convention and its honored guests, including parades, parties, and balls. These events have seen some of the Convention's most famous stories. In 1972, then-governor Jimmy Carter's speech at Mock Con was missed by his own press secretary, who had been celebrating with a group of W&L students and alumni. Before his famous MTV appearance, Bill Clinton played an impromptu concert for students at an off-campus party for the 1988 Convention. By 1996, the Mock Convention was acknowledged by The Washington Post as "one of the nation's oldest and most prestigious mock conventions."

Prediction history

YearPartyMock Convention NomineeNational Convention NomineeElection Winner
1908Dem William Jennings Bryan William Jennings Bryan William Howard Taft
1912Dem Judson Harmon Woodrow Wilson Woodrow Wilson
1916Rep Charles Evans Hughes Charles Evans Hughes Woodrow Wilson
1920Repnot held Warren G. Harding Warren G. Harding
1924Dem John W. Davis John W. Davis Calvin Coolidge
1928Dem Al Smith Al Smith Herbert Hoover
1932Dem Franklin D. Roosevelt Franklin D. Roosevelt Franklin D. Roosevelt
1936Rep Arthur Vandenberg Alf Landon Franklin D. Roosevelt
1940Rep Charles L. McNary Wendell Willkie Franklin D. Roosevelt
1944Repnot held Thomas E. Dewey Franklin D. Roosevelt
1948Rep Arthur Vandenberg Thomas E. Dewey Harry S. Truman
1952Rep Dwight D. Eisenhower Dwight D. Eisenhower Dwight D. Eisenhower
1956Dem Adlai Stevenson Adlai Stevenson Dwight D. Eisenhower
1960Dem John F. Kennedy John F. Kennedy John F. Kennedy
1964Rep Barry Goldwater Barry Goldwater Lyndon B. Johnson
1968Rep Richard Nixon Richard Nixon Richard Nixon
1972Dem Ted Kennedy George McGovern Richard Nixon
1976Dem Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter Jimmy Carter
1980Rep Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan Ronald Reagan
1984Dem Walter Mondale Walter Mondale Ronald Reagan
1988Dem Michael Dukakis Michael Dukakis George H.W. Bush
1992Dem Bill Clinton Bill Clinton Bill Clinton
1996Rep Bob Dole Bob Dole Bill Clinton
2000Rep George W. Bush George W. Bush George W. Bush
2004Dem John Kerry John Kerry George W. Bush
2008Dem Hillary Clinton Barack Obama Barack Obama
2012Rep Mitt Romney Mitt Romney Barack Obama
2016Rep Donald Trump Donald Trump Donald Trump
2020Dem Bernie Sanders Joe Biden Joe Biden
2024Rep Donald Trump [7] Donald Trump Donald Trump [8]

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References

  1. ↑ Schwab, Nikki (17 January 2008). "At Mock Convention, Washington and Lee Students Showcase Their Uncanny Knack for Picking Presidential Candidates". U.S. News & World Report.
  2. 1 2 "Our Story: Accurately predicting the presidential nominee since 1908".
  3. ↑ Schwab, Nikki (28 January 2008). "Clinton Wins Student Mock Convention". U.S. News & World Report.
  4. ↑ Fandos, Nicholas (13 February 2016). "Donald Trump Will Be GOP Nominee, Students' Mock Convention Says". New York Times.
  5. ↑ Craig, Berry (August 1, 2016). "Old Time Kentucky: Doing what he loved, Alben Barkley drew his final breath firing up a crowd". Northern Kentucky Tribune . Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  6. ↑ Alben W. Barkley (April 30, 1956). Vice President Alben W. Barkley's last words (video). YouTube. Archived from the original on 2021-12-22. Retrieved March 13, 2021.
  7. ↑ "Session One". Archived from the original on 2024-02-18.
  8. ↑ https://www.foxnews.com/politics/fox-news-projects-donald-trump-defeats-kamala-harris-become-47th-president-united-states
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