Abrupt climate change

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Clathrate hydrates have been identified as a possible agent for abrupt changes. Gashydrat mit Struktur.jpg
Clathrate hydrates have been identified as a possible agent for abrupt changes.

An abrupt climate change occurs when the climate system is forced to transition at a rate that is determined by the climate system energy-balance. The transition rate is more rapid than the rate of change of the external forcing, [1] though it may include sudden forcing events such as meteorite impacts. [2] Abrupt climate change therefore is a variation beyond the variability of a climate. Past events include the end of the Carboniferous Rainforest Collapse, [3] Younger Dryas, [4] Dansgaard–Oeschger events, Heinrich events and possibly also the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum. [5] The term is also used within the context of climate change to describe sudden climate change that is detectable over the time-scale of a human lifetime, possibly as the result of feedback loops within the climate system [6] or tipping points.

Contents

Timescales of events described as abrupt may vary dramatically. For example, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum may have initiated anywhere between a few decades and several thousand years. In comparison, Earth System's models project that under ongoing greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2047, the Earth's near surface temperature could depart from the range of variability in the last 150 years. [7]

Definitions

Abrupt climate change can be defined in terms of physics or in terms of impacts: "In terms of physics, it is a transition of the climate system into a different mode on a time scale that is faster than the responsible forcing. In terms of impacts, an abrupt change is one that takes place so rapidly and unexpectedly that human or natural systems have difficulty adapting to it. These definitions are complementary: the former gives some insight into how abrupt climate change comes about; the latter explains why there is so much research devoted to it." [8]

Timescales

Timescales of events described as abrupt may vary dramatically. Changes recorded in the climate of Greenland at the end of the Younger Dryas, as measured by ice-cores, imply a sudden warming of +10 °C (+18 °F) within a timescale of a few years. [9] Other abrupt changes are the +4 °C (+7.2 °F) on Greenland 11,270 years ago [10] or the abrupt +6 °C (11 °F) warming 22,000 years ago on Antarctica. [11]

By contrast, the Paleocene–Eocene Thermal Maximum may have initiated anywhere between a few decades and several thousand years. Finally, Earth System's models project that under ongoing greenhouse gas emissions as early as 2047, the Earth's near surface temperature could depart from the range of variability in the last 150 years. [7]

General

Possible tipping elements in the climate system include regional effects of climate change, some of which had abrupt onset and may therefore be regarded as abrupt climate change. [12] Scientists have stated, "Our synthesis of present knowledge suggests that a variety of tipping elements could reach their critical point within this century under anthropogenic climate change". [12]

It has been postulated that teleconnections – oceanic and atmospheric processes on different timescales – connect both hemispheres during abrupt climate change. [13]

A 2013 report from the U.S. National Research Council called for attention to the abrupt impacts of climate change, stating that even steady, gradual change in the physical climate system can have abrupt impacts elsewhere, such as in human infrastructure and ecosystems if critical thresholds are crossed. The report emphasizes the need for an early warning system that could help society better anticipate sudden changes and emerging impacts. [14]

A characteristic of the abrupt climate change impacts is that they occur at a rate that is faster than anticipated. This element makes ecosystems that are immobile and limited in their capacity to respond to abrupt changes, such as forestry ecosystems, particularly vulnerable. [15]

The probability of abrupt change for some climate related feedbacks may be low. [16] [17] Factors that may increase the probability of abrupt climate change include higher magnitudes of global warming, warming that occurs more rapidly and warming that is sustained over longer time periods. [17]

Climate models

Climate models are currently[ when? ] unable to predict abrupt climate change events, or most of the past abrupt climate shifts. [18] A potential abrupt feedback due to thermokarst lake formations in the Arctic, in response to thawing permafrost soils, releasing additional greenhouse gas methane, is currently not accounted for in climate models. [19]

Effects

A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation. Blue paths represent deep-water currents, and red paths represent surface currents. Thermohaline Circulation 2.png
A summary of the path of the thermohaline circulation. Blue paths represent deep-water currents, and red paths represent surface currents.
The Permian-Triassic extinction event, labelled "P-Tr" here, is the most significant extinction event in this plot for marine genera. Extinction intensity.svg
The Permian–Triassic extinction event, labelled "P–Tr" here, is the most significant extinction event in this plot for marine genera.

In the past, abrupt climate change has likely caused wide-ranging and severe effects as follows:

Tipping points in the climate system

This section is an excerpt from Tipping points in the climate system.[ edit ]
Possible tipping elements in the climate system Climate-tipping-points-en.svg
Possible tipping elements in the climate system

In climate science, a tipping point is a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large, accelerating and often irreversible changes in the climate system. [29] If tipping points are crossed, they are likely to have severe impacts on human society and may accelerate global warming. [30] [31]

Tipping behavior is found across the climate system, in ecosystems, ice sheets, and the circulation of the ocean and atmosphere. [31]

Examples of tipping points include thawing permafrost, which will release methane, a powerful greenhouse gas, or melting ice sheets and glaciers reducing Earth's albedo, which would warm the planet faster.

Tipping points are often, but not necessarily, abrupt. For example, with average global warming somewhere between 0.8 °C (1.4 °F) and 3 °C (5.4 °F), the Greenland ice sheet passes a tipping point and is doomed, but its melt would take place over millennia. [32] [33]

Tipping points are possible at today's global warming of just over 1 °C (1.8 °F) above preindustrial times, and highly probable above 2 °C (3.6 °F) of global warming. [31] The geological record shows many abrupt changes that suggest tipping points may have been crossed in ancient times. [34] It is possible that some tipping points are close to being crossed or have already been crossed, like those of the West Antarctic and Greenland ice sheets, the Amazon rainforest and warm-water coral reefs. [35] A danger is that if the tipping point in one system is crossed, this could cause a cascade of other tipping points, leading to severe, potentially catastrophic, [36] impacts. [37]

Past events

The Younger Dryas period of abrupt climate change is named after the alpine flower, Dryas. Dryas drummondii6.jpg
The Younger Dryas period of abrupt climate change is named after the alpine flower, Dryas.

Several periods of abrupt climate change have been identified in the paleoclimatic record. Notable examples include:

There are also abrupt climate changes associated with the catastrophic draining of glacial lakes. One example of this is the 8.2-kiloyear event, which is associated with the draining of Glacial Lake Agassiz. [44] Another example is the Antarctic Cold Reversal, c. 14,500 years before present (BP), which is believed to have been caused by a meltwater pulse probably from either the Antarctic ice sheet [45] or the Laurentide Ice Sheet. [46] These rapid meltwater release events have been hypothesized as a cause for Dansgaard–Oeschger cycles, [47]

A 2017 study concluded that similar conditions to today's Antarctic ozone hole (atmospheric circulation and hydroclimate changes), ~17,700 years ago, when stratospheric ozone depletion contributed to abrupt accelerated Southern Hemisphere deglaciation. The event coincidentally happened with an estimated 192-year series of massive volcanic eruptions, attributed to Mount Takahe in West Antarctica. [48]

Possible precursors

Most abrupt climate shifts are likely due to sudden circulation shifts, analogous to a flood cutting a new river channel. The best-known examples are the several dozen shutdowns of the North Atlantic Ocean's Meridional Overturning Circulation during the last ice age, affecting climate worldwide. [49]

Climate feedback effects

The dark ocean surface reflects only 6 percent of incoming solar radiation; sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent. NORTH POLE Ice (19626661335).jpg
The dark ocean surface reflects only 6 percent of incoming solar radiation; sea ice reflects 50 to 70 percent.

One source of abrupt climate change effects is a feedback process, in which a warming event causes a change that adds to further warming. [54] The same can apply to cooling. Examples of such feedback processes are:

Volcanism

Isostatic rebound in response to glacier retreat (unloading) and increased local salinity have been attributed to increased volcanic activity at the onset of the abrupt Bølling–Allerød warming. They are associated with the interval of intense volcanic activity, hinting at an interaction between climate and volcanism: enhanced short-term melting of glaciers, possibly via albedo changes from particle fallout on glacier surfaces. [57]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">North Atlantic Current</span> Current of the Atlantic Ocean

The North Atlantic Current (NAC), also known as North Atlantic Drift and North Atlantic Sea Movement, is a powerful warm western boundary current within the Atlantic Ocean that extends the Gulf Stream northeastward.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate variability and change</span> Change in the statistical distribution of climate elements for an extended period

Climate variability includes all the variations in the climate that last longer than individual weather events, whereas the term climate change only refers to those variations that persist for a longer period of time, typically decades or more. Climate change may refer to any time in Earth's history, but the term is now commonly used to describe contemporary climate change, often popularly referred to as global warming. Since the Industrial Revolution, the climate has increasingly been affected by human activities.

The Younger Dryas, which occurred circa 12,900 to 11,700 years BP, was a return to glacial conditions which temporarily reversed the gradual climatic warming after the Last Glacial Maximum, which lasted from circa 27,000 to 20,000 years BP. The Younger Dryas was the last stage of the Pleistocene epoch that spanned from 2,580,000 to 11,700 years BP and it preceded the current, warmer Holocene epoch. The Younger Dryas was the most severe and longest lasting of several interruptions to the warming of the Earth's climate, and it was preceded by the Late Glacial Interstadial, an interval of relative warmth that lasted from 14,670 to 12,900 BP.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Volcanic winter</span> Temperature anomaly event caused by a volcanic eruption

A volcanic winter is a reduction in global temperatures caused by droplets of sulfuric acid obscuring the Sun and raising Earth's albedo (increasing the reflection of solar radiation) after a large, sulfur-rich, particularly explosive volcanic eruption. Climate effects are primarily dependent upon the amount of injection of SO2 and H2S into the stratosphere where they react with OH and H2O to form H2SO4 on a timescale of week, and the resulting H2SO4 aerosols produce the dominant radiative effect. Volcanic stratospheric aerosols cool the surface by reflecting solar radiation and warm the stratosphere by absorbing terrestrial radiation for several years. Moreover, the cooling trend can be further extended by atmosphere-ice-ocean feedback mechanisms. These feedbacks can continue to maintain the cool climate long after the volcanic aerosols have dissipated.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Dansgaard–Oeschger event</span> Rapid climate fluctuation in the last glacial period

Dansgaard–Oeschger events, named after palaeoclimatologists Willi Dansgaard and Hans Oeschger, are rapid climate fluctuations that occurred 25 times during the last glacial period. Some scientists say that the events occur quasi-periodically with a recurrence time being a multiple of 1,470 years, but this is debated. The comparable climate cyclicity during the Holocene is referred to as Bond events.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Heinrich event</span> Large groups of icebergs traverse the North Atlantic.

A Heinrich event is a natural phenomenon in which large groups of icebergs break off from the Laurentide Ice Sheet and traverse the Hudson Strait into the North Atlantic. First described by marine geologist Hartmut Heinrich, they occurred during five of the last seven glacial periods over the past 640,000 years. Heinrich events are particularly well documented for the last glacial period but notably absent from the penultimate glaciation. The icebergs contained rock mass that had been eroded by the glaciers, and as they melted, this material was dropped to the sea floor as ice rafted debris forming deposits called Heinrich layers.

The Bølling–Allerød interstadial, also called the Late Glacial Interstadial, was an abrupt warm and moist interstadial period that occurred during the final stages of the Last Glacial Period. This warm period ran from 14,690 to 12,890 years before the present (BP). It began with the end of the cold period known as the Oldest Dryas, and ended abruptly with the onset of the Younger Dryas, a cold period that reduced temperatures back to near-glacial levels within a decade.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Atlantic meridional overturning circulation</span> System of surface and deep currents in the Atlantic Ocean

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is part of a global thermohaline circulation in the oceans and is the zonally integrated component of surface and deep currents in the Atlantic Ocean. It is characterized by a northward flow of warm, salty water in the upper layers of the Atlantic, and a southward flow of colder, deep waters. These "limbs" are linked by regions of overturning in the Nordic and Labrador Seas and the Southern Ocean, although the extent of overturning in the Labrador Sea is disputed. The AMOC is an important component of the Earth's climate system, and is a result of both atmospheric and thermohaline drivers.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Richard Alley</span> American geologist and academic (born 1957)

Richard Blane Alley is an American geologist and Evan Pugh Professor of Geosciences at Pennsylvania State University. He has authored more than 240 refereed scientific publications about the relationships between Earth's cryosphere and global climate change, and is recognized by the Institute for Scientific Information as a "highly cited researcher."

<span class="mw-page-title-main">8.2-kiloyear event</span> Rapid global cooling around 8,200 years ago

In climatology, the 8.2-kiloyear event was a sudden decrease in global temperatures that occurred approximately 8,200 years before the present, or c. 6,200 BC, and which lasted for the next two to four centuries. It defines the start of the Northgrippian age in the Holocene epoch. The cooling was significantly less pronounced than during the Younger Dryas cold period that preceded the beginning of the Holocene. During the event, atmospheric methane concentration decreased by 80 ppb, an emission reduction of 15%, by cooling and drying at a hemispheric scale.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Bond event</span> North Atlantic ice rafting events

Bond events are North Atlantic ice rafting events that are tentatively linked to climate fluctuations in the Holocene. Eight such events have been identified. Bond events were previously believed to exhibit a roughly c. 1,500-year cycle, but the primary period of variability is now put at c. 1,000 years.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Climate change in the Arctic</span> Impacts of climate change on the Arctic

Major environmental issues caused by contemporary climate change in the Arctic region range from the well-known, such as the loss of sea ice or melting of the Greenland ice sheet, to more obscure, but deeply significant issues, such as permafrost thaw, as well as related social consequences for locals and the geopolitical ramifications of these changes. The Arctic is likely to be especially affected by climate change because of the high projected rate of regional warming and associated impacts. Temperature projections for the Arctic region were assessed in 2007: These suggested already averaged warming of about 2 °C to 9 °C by the year 2100. The range reflects different projections made by different climate models, run with different forcing scenarios. Radiative forcing is a measure of the effect of natural and human activities on the climate. Different forcing scenarios reflect things such as different projections of future human greenhouse gas emissions.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tipping points in the climate system</span> Large and possibly irreversible changes in the climate system

In climate science, a tipping point is a critical threshold that, when crossed, leads to large, accelerating and often irreversible changes in the climate system. If tipping points are crossed, they are likely to have severe impacts on human society and may accelerate global warming.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Arctic methane emissions</span> Release of methane from seas and soils in permafrost regions of the Arctic

Arctic methane release is the release of methane from seas and soils in permafrost regions of the Arctic. While it is a long-term natural process, methane release is exacerbated by global warming. This results in a positive feedback cycle, as methane is itself a powerful greenhouse gas.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Ice–albedo feedback</span> Positive feedback climate process

Ice–albedo feedback is a positive feedback climate process where a change in the area of ice caps, glaciers, and sea ice alters the albedo and surface temperature of a planet. Ice is very reflective, therefore it reflects far more solar energy back to space than the other types of land area or open water. Ice–albedo feedback plays an important role in global climate change. For instance, at higher latitudes, warmer temperatures melt the ice sheets. However, if warm temperatures decrease the ice cover and the area is replaced by water or land, the albedo would decrease. This increases the amount of solar energy absorbed, leading to more warming. The change in albedo acts to reinforce the initial alteration in ice area leading to more warming. Warming tends to decrease ice cover and hence decrease the albedo, increasing the amount of solar energy absorbed and leading to more warming. In the geologically recent past, the ice–albedo positive feedback has played a major role in the advances and retreats of the Pleistocene ice sheets. Inversely, cooler temperatures increase ice, which increases albedo, leading to more cooling.

Deglaciation is the transition from full glacial conditions during ice ages, to warm interglacials, characterized by global warming and sea level rise due to change in continental ice volume. Thus, it refers to the retreat of a glacier, an ice sheet or frozen surface layer, and the resulting exposure of the Earth's surface. The decline of the cryosphere due to ablation can occur on any scale from global to localized to a particular glacier. After the Last Glacial Maximum, the last deglaciation begun, which lasted until the early Holocene. Around much of Earth, deglaciation during the last 100 years has been accelerating as a result of climate change, partly brought on by anthropogenic changes to greenhouse gases.

The Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC) is a large system of ocean currents, like a conveyor belt. It is driven by differences in temperature and salt content and it is an important component of the climate system. However, the AMOC is not a static feature of global circulation. It is sensitive to changes in temperature, salinity and atmospheric forcings. Climate reconstructions from δ18O proxies from Greenland reveal an abrupt transition in global temperature about every 1470 years. These changes may be due to changes in ocean circulation, which suggests that there are two equilibria possible in the AMOC. Stommel made a two-box model in 1961 which showed two different states of the AMOC are possible on a single hemisphere. Stommel’s result with an ocean box model has initiated studies using three dimensional ocean circulation models, confirming the existence of multiple equilibria in the AMOC.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Geological event</span> Earth

A geological event is a temporary and spatially heterogeneous and dynamic (diachronous) happening in Earth history that contributes to the transformation of Earth system and the formation of geological strata. Event stratigraphy was first proposed as a system for the recognition, study and correlation of the effects of important physical or biological events on the broader stratigraphical record.

Laurie Menviel or L. Menviel; Laurie Menviel is a palaeoclimatologist, and a Scientia fellow, at the University of New South Wales, who was awarded a Dorothy Hill Medal in 2019.

A hyperthermal event corresponds to a sudden warming of the planet on a geologic time scale.

References

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