North Indian Ocean tropical cyclone

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Cumulative track map of all North Indian Ocean cyclones from 1970 to 2005 North Indian cyclone tracks 1970-2005.jpg
Cumulative track map of all North Indian Ocean cyclones from 1970 to 2005

In the Indian Ocean north of the equator, tropical cyclones can form throughout the year on either side of the Indian subcontinent, although most frequently between April and June, and between October and December.

Contents

Sub-basins

Very severe cyclonic storms (Luban and Titli) over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in October 2018 Luban and Titli 2018-10-10 0745Z-0926Z.jpg
Very severe cyclonic storms (Luban and Titli) over the Arabian Sea and the Bay of Bengal in October 2018

The North Indian Ocean is the least active official basin, contributing only seven percent of the world's tropical cyclones. However the basin has produced some of the deadliest cyclones in the world, since they strike over very densely populated areas. [1] The Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre (RSMC) is the India Meteorological Department (IMD) and it is responsible to monitor the basin, issues warning and name the storms. [2]

The basin is divided into two sub-basins   the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. [3]

The Bay of Bengal, located in the northeast of the Indian Ocean. The basin is abbreviated BOB by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). [4] The United States's Joint Typhoon Warning Center unofficially designates as B to classify storms formed in the Bay of Bengal. [5] The Bay of Bengal's coast is shared among India, Bangladesh, Myanmar, Sri Lanka and western part of Thailand. [6] This sub-basin is the most active and produces some of the deadliest cyclones of all time. [7] The most intense cyclone in the bay was the 1999 Odisha cyclone. [8]

The Arabian Sea is a sea located in the northwest of the Indian Ocean. Tropical cyclones in the basin are abbreviated ARB by the India Meteorological Department (IMD). [4] The United States's Joint Typhoon Warning Center unofficially designates as A to classify storms formed in the Arabian Sea. [9] The Arabian Sea's coast is shared among India, Yemen, Oman, UAE, Iran, Pakistan, Sri Lanka, Maldives and Somalia. [10] Monsoons are characteristic of the Arabian Sea and responsible for the yearly cycling of its waters. In summer, strong winds blow from the southwest to the northeast, bringing rain to the Indian subcontinent. Cyclones are rare in the Arabian Sea, but the basin can produce strong tropical cyclones. [10] Cyclone Gonu was the strongest and the costliest recorded tropical cyclone in the basin. [11]

History of the basin

The systematic scientific studies of tropical systems in the Bay of Bengal and Arabian Sea was started during the 19th century by Henry Piddington. [12] Piddington utilised meteorological logs of vessels that navigated the seas and published a series of memoirs, in the Journal of the Asiatic Society of Bengal between 1839 and 1858. [12] These memoirs gave accounts and tracks of individual storms in the Bay of Bengal and the Arabian Sea. [12]

During the 2004 post monsoon season the IMD started to name tropical cyclones within the basin, with the first one named Cyclone Onil during September 2004. [13] During 2015 a modification to the intensity scale took place, with the IMD and WMO calling a system with 3-minute maximum sustained wind speeds between 90 knots (165 km/h; 105 mph) and 120 knots (220 km/h; 140 mph) an extremely severe cyclonic storm. [14]

A study analysing the spring season of tropical cyclones in the Bay of Bengal found increases in both pre-monsoon precipitation and tropical cyclone intensity as a result of enhanced large-scale monsoon circulation after 1979. The deepened monsoon trough in the Bay of Bengal not only affects cyclone frequency and timing, but also acts to direct more cyclones towards Myanmar. Increased anthropogenic aerosols likely contributed to such a regional climate change. [15]

    Climatology

    Formation and frequency

    On average only five to six tropical cyclones form in the basin each year. Tropical cyclones form in the months of March to June and October to December, with peaks at May and November. Most of these storms form in the Bay of Bengal: either in the southeastern Bay of Bengal, in the Andaman Sea, or as a remnant of a typhoon from the South China Sea. [8] High sea surface temperatures and humidity makes the bay more favourable to tropical cyclone development. [16] There are many tropical cyclones in the West Pacific; this may be another reason for increased[ clarification needed ] tropical cyclogenesis in the Bay, as it shares a fair portion of the increased quota of ACE. Meanwhile, the storms in the Arabian Sea mostly form over south-eastern part of the Arabian Sea or a remnant of a tropical cyclone from the Bay of Bengal, however the frequency of cyclogenesis in the Arabian Sea is generally less, due to cooler sea surface temperature and high wind shear. [8] However a strong positive Indian Ocean Dipole may cause an increase of tropical cyclogenesis than usual[ clarification needed ] which was seen in the 2019 season. [17] Very few tropical cyclones develop in the months of June to September (Monsoon months) because of high vertical wind shear. These storms form and peak as depressions or deep depressions before making landfall in Odisha or West Bengal. Another reason is the low life span in the sea[ clarification needed ] which also avoids the intensification of these low-pressure systems. [8]

    Movement

    Most of the storms move in a north-westerly direction and starts curving either towards southwest or northeast. There's a higher frequency of recurving towards northeast rather going southwest. In the Arabian Sea these storms mostly move in north-westerly direction targeting the Arabian Peninsula, however in some case these storm moves north-eastwards after crossing the 15°N latitude and strikes the Gujarati coast. In the Bay of Bengal, storms generally moves north-westwards until reaching the east coast and then moves north eastwards. [18]

    Intensification

    Intensification probability is maximum in the month of April, May and November in case of a depression becoming a cyclonic storm and severe cyclonic storm. More than half of the depressions intensify into a storm and a quarter intensify into a cyclone in these months. [19]

    Landfall

    In the Arabian Sea, most storms dissipate offshore without making landfall, but a significant number of tropical cyclones also impact the west coast, particularly the states of Gujarat and Maharashtra. The remaining 11 percent makes landfall in either the Arabian Peninsula, Horn of Africa or Pakistan. [20] In rare cases, some storms make landfall in Iran, like Cyclone Gonu did in 2007. [21] Other than Gonu, two storms like Cyclone Yemyin and Kyarr made some or major impact in Iran. [22] [23]

    In the Bay of Bengal, most of the storms strikes either the Indian state of Odisha or West Bengal and a significant number of storms hit the states of Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. 30 percent of the cyclones strike the countries of Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar while the remaining 13 percent just dissipates off shore without making landfall. [20]

    Climate change

    After a series of devastating cyclones in 2018, rising number of cyclones in the Arabian Sea in 2019 and a rising trend of rapid intensification in 2020 and 2021, many climatologists agree that climate change have caused these activities. On average, five cyclonic storms occur every year in the Arabian Sea. However, in 2019 eight cyclonic storms formed, becoming the record highest number of tropical cyclones in the sub-basin, which was tied with the 1902 season. [24] [25] Research has found that in recent decades the sea surface temperatures has risen up by 1.2–1.4 °C (2.2–2.5 °F) in the Arabian Sea. [25] During Cyclone Amphan’s rapid intensification, sea surface temperatures were as high as 33 °C (91 °F) in the Bay of Bengal, and parts of the Arabian Sea reached 32 °C (90 °F) before the formation of Cyclone Nisarga. [26] According to the Union Ministry of Earth and Science, the frequency of very severe cyclonic storms has risen up by one per decade in last two decades, despite the decrease of the overall tropical cyclone frequency in the same period. [25] Higher temperatures caused the cyclones to become more powerful and lead to tropical cyclone formation faster. Rising sea level also caused higher storm surge. [26] Researchers also predict that cyclones will be deadlier and stronger as the trend of warming sea surface temperatures continue. Rising sea levels also may cause severe flooding, strong storm surge and inundation of coastal towns. [26]

    Seasons

    Historical storm formation by month between 1990 and 2020
    10
    20
    30
    40
    50
    60
    Jan
    Feb
    Mar
    Apr
    May
    Jun
    Jul
    Aug
    Sep
    Oct
    Nov
    Dec
    •   Super Cyclone
    •   Extremely Severe
    •   Very Severe
    •   Severe
    •   Cyclonic Storm
    •   Deep Depression
    •   Depression

    Before 1890

    1890s

    YearDCSSCSNotes
    1890 1041
    1891 1343Total includes 1 Land Severe Cyclonic Storm
    1892 1272
    1893 12104
    1894 1260
    1895 1154
    1896 1083
    1897 1268
    1898 1373
    1899 730
    Total1126028
    References [27]

    1900s

    YearDCSSCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamage
    (USD)
    Notes
    1900 1031
    1901 632
    1902 1375
    1903 1482
    1904 940
    1905 1060
    1906 1171
    1907 1584
    1908 961
    1909 884
    Total1056020
    References [27]

    1910s

    YearDCSSCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamage
    (USD)
    Notes
    1910 652
    1911 754
    1912 962
    1913 1062
    1914 842
    1915 960
    1916 1485
    1917 1031
    1918 1150
    1919 1163
    Total955421
    References [27]

    1920s

    YearDCSSCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamage
    (USD)
    Notes
    1920 950
    1921 1041
    1922 1366
    1923 1643
    1924 1360
    1925 2073
    1926 13103
    1927 1872
    1928 1370
    1929 1560
    Total1406218
    References [27]

    Thy&_99 Nam=^ sunao kuch

    1930s

    YearDCSSCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamage
    (USD)
    Notes
    1930 14101
    1931 1151
    1932 1462
    1933 1683
    1934 1650
    1935 1562
    1936 1763
    1937 1962
    1938 1044
    1939 1973
    Total1516321
    References [27]

    1940s

    YearDCSSCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamage
    (USD)
    Notes
    1940 1685
    1941 1984
    1942 1452
    1943 1471
    1944 1982
    1945 1532
    1946 1751
    1947 1842
    1948 1863
    1949 1211
    Total1625523
    References [27]

    1950s

    YearDCSSCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamage
    (USD)
    Notes
    1950 1640 SCS  SixteenUnknownUnknown
    1951 1542 SCS  FifteenUnknownUnknown
    1952 1742
    1953 1011
    1954 1410
    1955 1362
    1956 1442
    1957 742
    1958 1252
    1959 1663
    Total1343916UnknownUnknown
    References [27]

    1960s

    This ESSA 3 satellite image was taken on November 3, 1966, at 0819 UTC of a tropical cyclone striking Madras, India Nov319660819zESSA3MadrasCyclone.jpg
    This ESSA 3 satellite image was taken on November 3, 1966, at 0819 UTC of a tropical cyclone striking Madras, India
    YearDCSSCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamage
    (USD)
    Notes
    1960 1553 VSCS  Ten 20,299>Vast majority of the fatalities resulted from two cyclones striking East Pakistan three weeks apart
    1961 1854 SCS  Winnie 11,525UnknownThree land depressions developed this season
    1962 1353 VSCS  Twelve 769Deadliest storm, Harriet, crossed over from the Western Pacific
    1963 1764 SuCS  Three 11,735Unknown
    1964 1675 SuCS  "Rameswaram" >1,827>
    1965 1464
    1966 1886
    1967 1564
    1968 1374 SuCS  "Burma"
    1969 1461 ESCS  Twelve
    Total1536138Three>47,000>$193.9 million
    References [27]

    1970s

    YearDCSSCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamage
    (USD)
    Notes
    1970 1573 ESCS  "Bhola" 300,000-500,00086.4 millionThe Bhola cyclone is the deadliest tropical cyclone recorded worldwide
    1971 1576 ESCS  "Odisha"
    1972 1876 ESCS  09B
    1973 1663 SCS  14B
    1974 1273 VSCS  06B
    1975 2074 ESCS  02A
    1976 14107 ESCS  02A
    1977 1855 SuCS  "Andhra Pradesh" up to 50,000$192 millionDevastated Krishna Delta area in Andhra Pradesh
    1978 1453 SuCS  "Sri Lanka" 1,000+
    1979 1154 ESCS  01B
    Total1536644"Andhra Pradesh">800,000>$278.4 million
    References [27]

    1980s

    YearDDDCSSCSVSCSESCSSuCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    1980 141450000 CS  BOB 02
    1981 121253300 VSCS  BOB 03
    1982 191185330 ESCS  BOB 01
    1983 7421110 CS  Herbert
    1984 7743320 ESCS  "Sriharikota" 430
    1985 151561100 VSCS  "Bangladesh" 11,107
    1986 8310000 CS  02B11
    1987 9853100 VSCS  01B
    1988 9553220 ESCS  "Bangladesh" 6,740$13 million
    1989 10532111 SuCS  Gay 1,785$25.27 millionTyphoon Gay crossed over from the West Pacific Basin
    Total1108444211591Gay / Kavali>20,073>$38.27 billion
    References [27]

    1990s

    The 1999 Odisha Cyclone making landfall over Odisha in 1999. Cyclone 05B.jpg
    The 1999 Odisha Cyclone making landfall over Odisha in 1999.
    YearDDDCSSCSVSCSESCSSuCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamage
    (USD)
    Notes and References
    1990 11622111 SuCS  BOB 01 967 [28] [29]
    1991 9431111 SuCS  "Bangladesh" >138,000 [29]
    1992 131172110 ESCS  Forrest 189Forrest crossed over from the West Pacific Basin
    1993 5422200 ESCS  BOB 02714
    1994 5542210 ESCS  "Bangladesh" 315
    1995 8632210 ESCS  BOB 07554
    1996 10864200 VSCS  "Andhra Pradesh" 2,075
    1997 9732110 ESCS  "Bangladesh" 117Unknown
    1998 131065310 ESCS  "Gujarat" >10,212
    1999 10853321 SuCS  "Odisha" 15,780The Odisha cyclone is the strongest cyclone recorded in the Northern Indian Ocean.
    Total936941251893"Odisha">168,923~$12.35 billion
    References [27]

    2000s

    Cyclone Gonu at its peak in 2007. Gonu 2007-06-04 0900Z.jpg
    Cyclone Gonu at its peak in 2007.
    YearDDDCSSCSVSCSESCSSuCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamage
    (USD)
    Notes
    2000 7652220 ESCS  "South India" 238
    2001 6541110 ESCS  "Gujarat" 108
    2002 7741000 SCS  "West Bengal" 182
    2003 7533100 VSCS  "Sri Lanka" 358
    2004 10744110 ESCS  "Myanmar" 587
    2005 12730000 CS  Pyarr273
    2006 12632110 ESCS  Mala 623
    2007 11842221 SuCS  Gonu 16,248
    2008 10741110 ESCS  Nargis >138,927The deadliest cyclone season since 1970
    Second-costliest cyclone season on record
    2009 8641000 SCS  Aila 421
    Total90643817981Gonu>157,965$16.65 billion
    References [27]

    2010s

    Cyclone Kyarr was the first super cyclone since 2007. Kyarr 2019-10-27 0858Z.jpg
    Cyclone Kyarr was the first super cyclone since 2007.
    YearDDDCSSCSVSCSESCSSuCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    2010 8654210 ESCS  Giri 402The most active season since 1998
    2011 10621100 VSCS  Thane 360
    2012 5520000 CS  Nilam 128The first depression of the year did not develop until October 10
    2013 10654310 ESCS  Phailin 323Featured Phailin, the first Category 5-equivalent cyclone since Sidr in 2007
    2014 8532220 ESCS  Nilofar 183
    2015 12942220 ESCS  Chapala 363First season on record with two cyclones producing hurricane-force winds in Socotra
    2016 10541100 VSCS  Vardah 401
    2017 10632100 VSCS  Ockhi 834
    2018 14975310 ESCS  Mekunu 343The most active season since 1992
    2019 121186631 SuCS  Kyarr 173Earliest cyclonic storm in the basin
    First Super Cyclonic Storm since 2007
    Total9968432721101 Kyarr 3510
    References [27]

    2020s

    Amphan was the costliest cyclone in the basin to strike land. Amphan 2020-05-18 0745Z.jpg
    Amphan was the costliest cyclone in the basin to strike land.
    YearDDDCSSCSVSCSESCSSuCSStrongest
    storm
    DeathsDamages
    (USD)
    Notes
    2020 9654311 SuCS  Amphan 269First super cyclonic storm in the Bay of Bengal since 1999
    Featured the costliest cyclone ever recorded in the basin, Amphan
    Costliest North Indian cyclone season on record
    2021 10653210 ESCS  Tauktae 230$5.31 billion
    2022 15732000 SCS  Asani 79$52.4 million

    First season on record to have two depressions forming in the month of March

    2023 10875430 ESCS  Mocha 523$1.07 million Mocha was one of the strongest cyclones ever formed in the basin's history.
    2024 0000000
    Total44272014951Amphan1101$21.163 billion

    Records

    See also

    Notes

      Related Research Articles

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      The 2022 North Indian Ocean cyclone season was an event in the annual cycle of tropical cyclone formation. It was an above-average season in terms of depressions and average in terms of deep depressions, but slightly below average in terms of cyclonic storms. It was also the least deadly North Indian Ocean cyclone season since 1988, according to official data. The season's strongest tropical cyclone was Cyclone Asani, with maximum wind speeds of 100 km/h and a minimum barometric pressure of 982 hPa. The North Indian Ocean cyclone season has no official bounds, but cyclones tend to form between April and December, with the peak from May to November. These dates conventionally delimit the period of each year when most tropical cyclones form in the northern Indian Ocean.

      <span class="mw-page-title-main">Cyclone Asani</span> North Indian Ocean cyclone in 2022

      Severe Cyclonic Storm Asani was a strong tropical cyclone that made landfall in India in May 2022. It was the strongest storm of 2022 North Indian Ocean cyclone season. The third depression and deep depression, and the first named storm of the 2022 North Indian Ocean cyclone season, Asani originated from a depression that the Indian Meteorological Department first monitored on May 7. Conditions rapidly favored development as the system became a deep depression by that day before intensifying to a Cyclonic Storm Asani. On the next day it further intensified and peak to a severe cyclonic storm, before making landfall as a deep depression system over Andhra Pradesh. It degenerated into a well marked low-pressure on May 12.

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