The incumbent Unity Labour Party (ULP) government, led by Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves, sought re-election to a record sixth term in office. They were challenged by the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Godwin Friday, who sought to form government for the first time since 1998. The election resulted in a landslide victory for the NDP, winning 14 of the 15 seats up for election. In its worst result in party history, the ULP was reduced to one seat from 9, with Gonsalves as its only remaining representative. The party also saw several cabinet members defeated in what was the largest fall from government in the nation's history.[5] It was the worst result for the ULP since its foundation and the best result for the NDP since 1989.
Background
The 2020 elections saw the incumbent Unity Labour Party (ULP) government under Ralph Gonsalves getting re-elected to a record fifth consecutive term.[6] While the ULP won nine seats, an increase by one, the incumbent party lost the popular vote for the first time since 1998.[7][8] Gonsalves was sworn in for his fifth term on 7 November 2020.[9]
The incumbent ULP government sought re-election to a record sixth term in office. They were challenged by the opposition New Democratic Party (NDP), led by Godwin Friday, who sought to form government for the first time since 1998.[10]
Electoral system
The 15 elected members (representatives) of the House of Assembly are elected every five years in single-member constituencies using the first-past-the-post system.[11][12] A further six members (senators) are appointed;[3] four by the government and two by the opposition.[13][14] The remaining two seats are held by the attorney general and Speaker, for a total of 23 members.[15]
St. Vincent and the Grenadines has a two-party system. Only the ULP and NDP tend to win seats in elections.[14][16]
On 28 October, outgoing Prime Minister Gonsalves dissolved the Parliament, starting the electoral campaign period.[23][24] The candidate filing deadline was 10 November, and the voter registration deadline was 13 November.[15] Thirty-two candidates filed to contest the 15 seats. Thirty of the candidates were members of either the ULP or NDP, and there was one independent candidate not affiliated with a party.[25]Doris Charles-Frederick, the leader of the National Liberation Movement (NLM), also ran as an independent candidate in South Leeward.[26] Nine of the candidates running were women, and before the election, there were five female members of the House of Assembly.[15][25]
Early in the campaign, the ULP was expected to lead in the election. In October, the Dunn Pierre Barnett & Company Canada (DPBA) conducted a poll predicting the ULP to lead one seat over the NDP. Women tended to favour the ULP, but men favoured the NDP. Urban voters, especially in Kingstown, recorded lower satisfaction with the government than rural voters.[27][28] Later, on 12 November, the DPBA still found that the ULP had a 64% chance of retaining power.[10]
The campaign for both parties hinged greatly on economic performance. The relatively high youth unemployment rate, at 27%, was a major driver of dissatisfaction with the ULP-led government.[27] The general unemployment rate of 18% and the poverty rate of 26% also affected the ULP's image.[29][30]
The ULP contested the election based on the economy, political stability, modernity, regionalism in the Caribbean, and attracting investment in Saint Vincent and the Grenadines. The ULP also supported increasing tourism to the country.[31] Gonsalves and the ULP also supported greater cooperation in the Caribbean.[32] This election was the first in which the ULP did not have a deputy leader.[24] The party focused on the fact that many of their members and candidates are younger than in the NDP.[24] Much sentiment against the ULP was due to their 24-year-long stint in government. The government vaccine mandate during the COVID-19 pandemic also affected the ULP's support.[5] Gonsalves was a strong supporter of the governments of Venezuela under Nicolás Maduro and Cuba under Miguel Diaz-Canel.[30]
The NDP focused on reducing unemployment, improving infrastructure and healthcare, political change, the cost-of-living, and crime.[5][32][33] The party's strategy centered around groups least satisfied with the government.[27] The NDP also previously supported severing diplomatic relations with Taiwan and moving to closer ties with the PRC, although this was absent from their election manifesto and the NDP did not commit to such a move during the campaign.[10][34][35] The ULP had previously accused the PRC of financing the NDP.[36] The NDP has proposed a "golden passport" system in which foreigners could invest in the country in order to gain citizenship.[10][24] Surveys show that 62% of Vincentians would support such a citizenship-by-investment program.[37]
The Caribbean Community (CARICOM) sent a ten-member "CARICOM Election Observation Mission" (CEOM) to monitor the election. The CEOM was invited by the outgoing government on 2 October. The mission was in the country from 23–29 November.[38][39]
The opposition NDP obtained a supermajority with 14 out of 15 elected seats, coming back to lead the government for the first time since 2001. This was the largest supermajority government for any party since the 1989 election,[44] and the worst result for the ULP since its foundation in the mid-1990s. The outgoing Prime Minister Ralph Gonsalves was the only ULP representative to retain their seat.[5] Finance Minister Camillo Gonsalves and Agriculture Minister Saboto Caesar, who were both seen as potential leaders of the ULP, would also lose their respective seats.[45] Following the election, the ULP issued a statement saying that it would "keep working and advocating" for Saint Vincent and the Grenadines.[29][30] Friday was sworn in as Prime Minister on 28 November and his cabinet was sworn in on 2 December.[29][46]
Jamaica: Prime Minister Andrew Holness congratulated Friday on his victory, describing the election as an "important moment for the Vincentian people" and wishing Friday "every success as he undertakes the responsibility of national leadership".[5]
Taiwan: The ambassador to St. Vincent and the Grenadines congratulated Friday, despite the NDP previously proposing severing relations with Taiwan and pivoting towards China.[5][35] However, the opposition Kuomintang was harsher towards the new government, saying that the election reflected "deteriorating cross-strait relations".[35]
Venezuela: President Maduro said that he would be willing to work with Friday's government and thanked the outgoing Gonsalves.[29] Gonsalves had been a strong supporter of Maduro's government.[30]
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