Advanced Football Analytics

Last updated

Advanced Football Analytics (formerly Advanced NFL Stats) was a website dedicated to the analysis of the National Football League (NFL) using mathematical and statistical methods. [1] The site's lead author was noted football researcher and analyst Brian Burke. [2] [3] [4] Burke is a regular contributor to The New York Times ' NFL coverage, [5] [6] The Washington Post 's Commanders coverage, [7] and supplies research for other notable publications and writers. [8]

Contents

Advanced Football Analytics features a variety of analytical techniques and applications. The site predicts game outcomes and rates teams using a logistic regression model based on team efficiency statistics. It also features a live in-game win probability model that estimates the chances either opponent will win a game in progress. Advanced Football Analytics uses its win probability model to analyze strategic coaching decisions such as whether to kick or attempt first down conversions.

Research topics include game theory applications, luck and randomness, [9] play calling, home field advantage, run-pass balance, and the relative importance of various facets of performance (offensive passing, offensive rushing, defensive passing, etc.). Also featured is research on weather factors, team payroll, and the NFL Draft.

The site has pioneered other analytical concepts such as Air Yards, which is the distance forward of the line of scrimmage that a pass travels. It removes the contribution of Yards After Catch (YAC) run by a receiver.

Advanced Football Analytics also features a catalog of unique individual player stats. Each player's contribution toward his team's wins, known as Win Probability Added (WPA), is available for each season since 2000. Expected Points Added (EPA), success rate (SR), and many other innovative metrics are available.

During the NFL off-season, Burke has posted original research related to other North American professional sports leagues. [10]

See also

Related Research Articles

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Baltimore Ravens</span> National Football League franchise in Baltimore, Maryland

The Baltimore Ravens are a professional American football team based in Baltimore. The Ravens compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the American Football Conference (AFC) North division. The team plays its home games at M&T Bank Stadium and is headquartered in Owings Mills, Maryland.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Buffalo Bills</span> National Football League franchise in Orchard Park, New York

The Buffalo Bills are a professional American football team based in the Buffalo–Niagara Falls metropolitan area. The Bills compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the American Football Conference (AFC) East division. The team plays its home games at Highmark Stadium in Orchard Park, New York and are building a new stadium which will be completed in 2026.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Indianapolis Colts</span> National Football League franchise in Indianapolis, Indiana

The Indianapolis Colts are a professional American football team based in Indianapolis. The Colts compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the American Football Conference (AFC) South division. Since the 2008 season, the Colts have played their games in Lucas Oil Stadium. Previously, the team had played for over two decades (1984–2007) at the RCA Dome. Since 1987, the Colts have served as the host team for the NFL Scouting Combine.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Jacksonville Jaguars</span> National Football League franchise in Jacksonville, Florida

The Jacksonville Jaguars are a professional American football team based in Jacksonville, Florida. The Jaguars compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the American Football Conference (AFC) South division. The team plays its home games at EverBank Stadium.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Miami Dolphins</span> National Football League franchise in Miami Gardens, Florida

The Miami Dolphins are a professional American football team based in the Miami metropolitan area. The Dolphins compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the American Football Conference (AFC) East division. The team plays its home games at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Florida, a northern suburb of Miami. The team is owned by Stephen M. Ross. The Dolphins are the oldest professional sports team in Florida. Of the four AFC East teams, the Dolphins are the only team in the division that was not a charter member of the American Football League (AFL). The Dolphins were also one of the first professional football teams in the southeast, along with the Atlanta Falcons.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">New York Jets</span> National Football League franchise in East Rutherford, New Jersey

The New York Jets are a professional American football team based in the New York metropolitan area. The Jets compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the American Football Conference (AFC) East division. The Jets play their home games at MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey, 5 miles (8.0 km) west of New York City. The team is headquartered in Florham Park, New Jersey. The franchise is legally organized as a limited liability company under the name New York Jets, LLC.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">New York Giants</span> National Football League franchise in East Rutherford, New Jersey

The New York Giants are a professional American football team based in the New York metropolitan area. The Giants compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the National Football Conference (NFC) East division. The team plays its home games at MetLife Stadium at the Meadowlands Sports Complex in East Rutherford, New Jersey, 5 miles (8 km) west of New York City. The stadium is shared with the New York Jets. The Giants are headquartered and practice at the Quest Diagnostics Training Center, also in the Meadowlands.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Seattle Seahawks</span> National Football League franchise in Seattle, Washington

The Seattle Seahawks are a professional American football team based in Seattle. The Seahawks compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the National Football Conference (NFC) West division. The club entered the NFL as an expansion team in 1976 in the NFC. From 1977 to 2001, Seattle was assigned to the American Football Conference (AFC) West; the team rejoined the NFC in 2002. They have played their home games at Lumen Field in Seattle's SoDo neighborhood since 2002, having previously played home games in the Kingdome (1976–1999) and Husky Stadium.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Tampa Bay Buccaneers</span> National Football League franchise in Tampa, Florida

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are a professional American football team based in Tampa, Florida. The Buccaneers compete in the National Football League (NFL) as a member of the National Football Conference (NFC) South division. They joined the NFL in 1976 as an expansion team, along with the Seattle Seahawks, and played its first season in the American Football Conference (AFC) West division.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Donovan McNabb</span> American football player (born 1976)

Donovan Jamal McNabb is an American former professional football quarterback who played in the National Football League (NFL) for 13 seasons, primarily with the Philadelphia Eagles. He played college football for the Syracuse Orange and was selected with the second overall pick in the 1999 NFL draft by the Eagles, where he spent 11 seasons. McNabb also spent a year each with the Washington Redskins and Minnesota Vikings. The Eagles retired McNabb's no. 5 jersey when he was inducted to the Philadelphia Eagles Hall of Fame in 2013.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">London Fletcher</span> American football player (born 1975)

London Levi Fletcher-Baker is an American former professional football linebacker who played for 16 seasons in the National Football League (NFL) with the St. Louis Rams, Buffalo Bills, and Washington Redskins. He played college football at John Carroll and signed with the Rams as an undrafted free agent in 1998. After four seasons with the Rams, he was a member of the Bills for five seasons and spent his last seven seasons with the Redskins. He won Super Bowl XXXIV with the Rams in 1999 and made four Pro Bowls during his Redskins tenure.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Brian Dawkins</span> American football player (born 1973)

Brian Patrick Dawkins Sr., nicknamed "Weapon X", is an American former professional football player who was a safety for 16 seasons in the National Football League (NFL), primarily with the Philadelphia Eagles. He played college football for the Clemson Tigers and was selected by the Eagles in the second round of the 1996 NFL draft. In his last three seasons, he played for the Denver Broncos.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Shaun Ellis</span> American football player (born 1977)

MeShaunda "Shaun" Pizarrur Ellis, nicknamed "Big Katt", is an American former professional football player who was a defensive end who spent the majority of his career with the New York Jets of the National Football League (NFL). He played college football for the Tennessee Volunteers. Ellis was selected by the Jets in the first round of the 2000 NFL draft with the 12th overall pick. He also played for the New England Patriots. He was a two-time Pro Bowl selection.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">4th and 26</span> Notable NFL playoff game

4th and 26 was a National Football League (NFL) game played on January 11, 2004, between the Green Bay Packers and Philadelphia Eagles during the 2003–04 playoffs. The Packers traveled to Lincoln Financial Field in Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, for a divisional playoff game after beating the Seattle Seahawks in a wild card game the week prior. After taking an early 14–0 lead, the Packers allowed the Eagles to tie the game in the fourth quarter, 14–14. After the Packers regained the lead on a late field goal, the Eagles got the ball with only a few minutes left to tie or take the lead. After a penalty and a sack pushed the Eagles back 16 yards, they faced a fourth down with 26 yards to go with just 1:12 left on the game clock. Eagles' quarterback Donovan McNabb completed a 28-yard pass to wide receiver Freddie Mitchell for a first down. The Eagles continued their drive with a field goal to send the game into overtime. After the Eagles intercepted Packers' quarterback Brett Favre, kicker David Akers kicked a game-winning field goal to advance the Eagles to the NFC Championship Game, which they would lose 14–3 to the Carolina Panthers.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Safety (gridiron football score)</span> Scoring play in gridiron football

In gridiron football, the safety or safety touch is a scoring play that results in two points being awarded to the scoring team. Safeties can be scored in a number of ways, such as when a ball carrier is tackled in his own end zone or when a foul is committed by the offense in its own end zone. After a safety is scored in American football, the ball is kicked off to the team that scored the safety from the 20-yard line; in Canadian football, the scoring team also has the options of taking control of the ball at its own 35-yard line or kicking off the ball, also at its own 35-yard line. The ability of the scoring team to receive the ball through a kickoff differs from the touchdown and field goal, which require the scoring team to kick the ball off to the scored-upon team. Despite being of relatively low point value, safeties can have a significant impact on the result of games, and Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats estimated that safeties have a greater abstract value than field goals, despite being worth a point less, due to the field position and reclaimed possession gained off the safety kick.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">John Harbaugh</span> American football coach (born 1962)

John William Harbaugh is an American professional football coach who is the head coach for the Baltimore Ravens of the National Football League (NFL). Previously, he coached the defensive backs for the Philadelphia Eagles and served as the Eagles special teams coach for nine years. Harbaugh and his younger brother, former San Francisco 49ers and current Los Angeles Chargers head coach Jim Harbaugh, are the first pair of brothers in NFL history to serve as head coaches. Jack Harbaugh, Jim and John's father, served 45 years as a college defensive coach, an assistant coach, and a running backs coach. John and the Ravens beat Jim and the 49ers at Super Bowl XLVII in New Orleans on February 3, 2013, by a score of 34–31.

John Edward McVay was an American football coach and executive. He rose through the coaching ranks from high school, through the college level, and to the National Football League (NFL). He played college football at Miami University in Ohio, starring as a center.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Brian Daboll</span> Canadian-born American football coach (born 1975)

Brian Michael Daboll is a Canadian-American professional football coach who is the head coach of the New York Giants of the National Football League (NFL). He previously served as the offensive coordinator for the Cleveland Browns, Miami Dolphins, Kansas City Chiefs, Alabama Crimson Tide, and Buffalo Bills. Daboll has also served in various capacities as an assistant coach for the New England Patriots from 2000 to 2006 and again from 2013 to 2016.

<span class="mw-page-title-main">Two-point conversion</span> Play in American and Canadian football

In gridiron football, a two-point conversion, two-point convert, or two-point attempt is a play a team attempts instead of kicking a one-point conversion immediately after it scores a touchdown. In a two-point conversion attempt, the team that just scored must run a play from scrimmage close to the opponent's goal line and advance the ball across the goal line in the same manner as if they were scoring a touchdown. If the team succeeds, it earns two points in addition to the six points for the touchdown, for a total of eight points. If the team fails, no additional points are earned.

Sports analytics are collections of relevant historical statistics that can provide a competitive advantage to a team or individual by helping to inform players, coaches and other staff and help facilitate decision-making both during and prior to sporting events. The term "sports analytics" was popularized in mainstream sports culture following the release of the 2011 film Moneyball. In this film, Oakland Athletics general manager Billy Beane relies heavily on the use of baseball analytics to build a competitive team on a minimal budget, building upon and extending the established practice of Sabermetrics.

References

  1. ↑ Monkovic, Toni. "Q&A With Brian Burke of Advanced NFL Stats". The New York Times . Retrieved January 17, 2009.
  2. ↑ Kilgore, Adam (November 17, 2009). "Belichick Had the Numbers on His Side". The Boston Globe . Archived from the original on January 21, 2010. Retrieved March 8, 2010.
  3. ↑ "Houston Chronicle-'Advanced NFL Stats' sums up the Texans season". chron.com. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved January 17, 2009.
  4. ↑ Bialik, Carl (November 18, 2008). "Wall Street Journal-How Unlikely Was the Historic 11-10 Score?". wsj.com. Archived from the original on January 1, 2009. Retrieved January 17, 2009.
  5. ↑ "Brian Burke - New York Times Fifth Down". The New York Times . Archived from the original on February 26, 2010. Retrieved March 8, 2010.
  6. ↑ Burke, Brian (February 9, 2010). "Saints' Risky Decisions Were Both Calculated and Crucial". The New York Times. Retrieved March 8, 2010.
  7. ↑ "Washington Post Redskins Insider". washingtonpost.com. Archived from the original on October 8, 2012. Retrieved November 17, 2010.
  8. ↑ "Peter King Monday Morning QB". sportsillustrated.cnn.com. February 1, 2010. Archived from the original on February 4, 2010. Retrieved March 8, 2010.
  9. ↑ Monkovic, Toni (December 24, 2008). "New York Times-Jets Were One of the Luckiest Teams". The New York Times . Archived from the original on January 29, 2009. Retrieved January 17, 2009.
  10. ↑ Bialik, Carl (April 27, 2009). "The Wall Street Journal, "The Count: Refining the Concept of a Must-Win Game"". wsj.com. Retrieved October 17, 2016.
This page is based on this Wikipedia article
Text is available under the CC BY-SA 4.0 license; additional terms may apply.
Images, videos and audio are available under their respective licenses.