Football Outsiders (FO) was a website started in July 2003 which focused on advanced statistical analysis of the National Football League (NFL). The site was run by a staff of regular writers, who produced a series of weekly columns using both the site's in-house statistics and their personal analyses of NFL games.
In 2005 and 2006, the site partnered with FOXSports.com to cross-publish many of the Outsiders' regular features, including power rankings based on a "weighted" version of the DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) statistic. In 2007, Football Outsiders content appeared on FOXSports.com (in a reduced capacity) along with AOL Sports and ESPN.com. Since 2008, the site has partnered exclusively with ESPN and provides mostly ESPN Insider content. In 2009, Football Outsiders began analyzing college football using similar statistical principles.
As of 2023, after financial mismanagement,[1] the site seems to have been abandoned by its owners. As of September 1, 2023, the website was no longer accessible. DVOA statistics have been moved to FTN Fantasy, which is owned by FTN Network. Aaron Schatz joined FTN Network as Chief Analytics Officer on August 29, 2023.[2]
History
Football Outsiders was launched in August 2003 by Aaron Schatz, with two regular columns, one of which used an early version of the proprietary DVOA statistic. The original purpose of the site was to disprove a statement by Boston Globe reporter Ron Borges that the 2002 New England Patriots failed to make the postseason because they could not establish the run.[citation needed] Over the course of time, the site added more writers, and hosted Gregg Easterbrook for part of 2003.
Between 2004 and 2005, the site introduced new statistics such as Defense-adjusted Points Above Replacement (DPAR, later Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement, DYAR) and Adjusted Line Yards (ALY). In 2005, the site began to cross-publish many of its columns on FOXsports.com. In 2005, Football Outsiders also took over publication of Pro Football Prospectus, a book giving a preview of the upcoming NFL season. In 2009, the annual was renamed Football Outsiders Almanac.[3]
Currently, the site has incorporated the 1981–2022 NFL seasons into their statistics.
Key Metrics
Football Outsiders has devised a series of proprietary formulas to calculate different advanced metrics.
DVOA
DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) calculates a team's success based on the down-and-distance of each play during the season, then calculates how much more or less successful each team is compared to the league average. According to Football Outsiders, DVOA "breaks down every single play of the NFL season to see how much success offensive players achieved in each specific situation compared to the league average in that situation, adjusted for the strength of the opponent. ... Football has one objective -- to get to the end zone -- and two ways to achieve that, by gaining yards and getting first downs. These two goals need to be balanced to determine a player's value or a team's performance."[4]
There is a separate DVOA measurement for special teams, which "compare[s] each kick or punt to the league average for based on the point value of field position at the position of each kick, catch, and return."[5]
DYAR
DYAR (Defense-adjusted Yards Above Replacement) calculates each player's cumulative value above or below a "replacement-level" alternative. DYAR differs from DVOA in calculating a player's total value through the course of a year, and not on a play-for-play rate. States Football Outsiders, "DVOA, by virtue of being a percentage or rate statistic, doesn’t take into account the cumulative value of having a player producing at a league-median level over the course of an above-average number of plays. By definition, a median level of performance is better than that provided by half of the league and the ability to maintain that level of performance while carrying a heavy work load is very valuable indeed."[6]
Adjusted Line Yards
Adjusted Line Yards (ALY) "differentiate[s] between the contribution of the running back and the contribution of the offensive line." ALY attempts to "separate the effect that the running back has on a particular play from the effect of the offensive line (and other offensive blockers) and the effect of the defense. ... Yardage ends up falling into roughly the following combinations: Losses, 0-4 yards, 5-10 yards, and 11+ yards. In general, the offensive line is 20% more responsible for lost yardage than it is for yardage gained up to four yards, but 50% less responsible for yardage gained from 5-10 yards, and not responsible for yardage past that. Thus, the creation of Adjusted Line Yards."[7]
Drive Stats
Drive Stats calculate a team's average success rate on a possession-by-possession basis: "[E]ach team's total number of drives as well as average yards per drive, points per drive, touchdowns per drive, punts per drive, and turnovers per drive, interceptions per drive, and fumbles lost per drive. LOS/Drive represents average starting field position (line of scrimmage) per drive from the offensive point of view. Drive stats are given for offense and defense, with NET representing simply offense minus defense."[8]
Another metric Football Outsiders uses is Pythagorean projection, which estimates wins in a season by a formula originally conceived by baseball analyst Bill James, that takes the square of team points, and divides it by the sum of the squares of team points scored and allowed.
The 2011 edition of Football Outsiders Almanac[9] states, "From 1988 through 2004, 11 of 16 Super Bowls were won by the team that led the NFL in Pythagorean wins, while only seven were won by the team with the most actual victories. Super Bowl champions that led the league in Pythagorean wins but not actual wins include the 2004 Patriots, 2000 Ravens, 1999 Rams and 1997 Broncos."
Although Football Outsiders Almanac acknowledges that the formula had been less-successful in picking Super Bowl participants from 2005 to 2008, it reasserted itself in 2009 and 2010.
Furthermore, "[t]he Pythagorean projection is also still a valuable predictor of year-to-year improvement. Teams that win a minimum of one full game more than their Pythagorean projection tend to regress the following year; teams that win a minimum of one full game less than their Pythagorean projection tend to improve the following year, particularly if they were at or above .500 despite their underachieving. For example, the 2008 New Orleans Saints went 8-8 despite 9.5 Pythagorean wins, hinting at the improvement that came with the next year's championship season."
DVOA results
Each year, Football Outsiders calculates the best and worst teams, per play, with the DVOA metric (see above). Below is a list of the highest- and lowest-rated teams in the league in each year from 1985 to 2019.
Since Football Outsiders shut down in 2023, DVOA stats have been moved to FTN Fantasy; a historical archive of DVOA rankings dating back to 1979 is available.[10]
Pro Football Prospectus and Football Outsiders Almanac
From 2005 through 2008, Football Outsiders published the Pro Football Prospectus book each year before the football season began. It included an essay for each team analyzing the previous season, evaluating off-season moves, and projecting future performance.
In 2009, Football Outsiders did not publish a Pro Football Prospectus volume, but instead produced the self-published Football Outsiders Almanac 2009. The reason for this is explained in the book:
So why the name change, and why aren’t we in bookstores?
For those who don’t know, our first four books were published through an agreement with Prospectus Entertainment Ventures, the company that owns Baseball Prospectus (as well as the expansion projects Basketball Prospectus and Puck Prospectus). It was PEV that had the publishing contract (first with Workman, then Plume). This year, for various reasons, Plume decided they no longer wanted to publish books related to other sports besides baseball. Other publishers were interested in doing our book, but by the time Plume made their decision, it was too late to get on the publication schedule for 2009.[50]
Pythagorean expectation is a sports analytics formula devised by Bill James to estimate the percentage of games a baseball team "should" have won based on the number of runs they scored and allowed. Comparing a team's actual and Pythagorean winning percentage can be used to make predictions and evaluate which teams are over-performing and under-performing. The name comes from the formula's resemblance to the Pythagorean theorem.
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In gridiron football, a sack occurs when the quarterback is tackled behind the line of scrimmage before throwing a forward pass, when the quarterback is tackled behind the line of scrimmage in the "pocket" and without clear intent, or when a passer runs out of bounds behind the line of scrimmage due to defensive pressure. This often occurs if the opposing team's defensive line, linebackers or defensive backs are able to apply pass pressure to quickly get past blocking players of the offensive team, or if the quarterback is unable to find a back to hand the ball off to or an available eligible receiver to catch the ball, allowing the defense a longer opportunity to tackle the quarterback.
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The 2004 Cleveland Browns season was the team's 56th season and 52nd with the National Football League. The Browns were looking to improve on their 5–11 record from 2003 and return to their 2002 playoff position; however, hindered by a tough schedule they regressed further and only won four games. On November 30, Butch Davis resigned as head coach and general manager of the team. He was succeeded by offensive coordinator Terry Robiskie. Robiskie promoted tight end coach Rob Chudzinski to offensive coordinator.
The 1992 Los Angeles Rams season was the team's 55th year with the National Football League and the 47th season in Los Angeles. In a scheduling quirk, the Rams' first four opponents were all AFC East teams. The Rams' final twelve games were against only NFC teams.
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The 1996 season was the Washington Redskins' 65th in the National Football League, and their 61st since the franchise moved to Washington, D.C. It was their last season playing at RFK Stadium, where they had played since 1961. They began the season aiming to improve on their 6–10 record from the year before, but after winning seven of their first eight games, they managed just two victories in the second half of the season and finished with a 9–7 record. By virtue of their inferior intra-conference record (6–6) compared to the Minnesota Vikings (8–4), the Redskins became the first team in NFL history to start the season 7–1 and not make the playoffs.
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The 1991 New Orleans Saints season was the team's 25th season in the National Football League. The Saints won their first-ever division title, and reached the postseason for the second consecutive year. However, they lost their playoff opener at home in the wild card round to their bitter division rival, the Atlanta Falcons, and would have to wait another nine years before winning their first playoff game in franchise history.
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