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Win probability added (WPA) is a sport statistic which attempts to measure a player's contribution to a win by figuring the factor by which each specific play made by that player has altered the outcome of a game. [1] It is used for baseball and American football. [2]
Some form of win probability has been around for about 40 years; however, until computer use became widespread, win probability added was often difficult to derive, or imprecise. With the aid of Retrosheet, however, win probability added has become substantially easier to calculate. The win probability for a specific situation in baseball (including the inning, number of outs, men on base, and score) is obtained by first finding all the teams that have encountered this situation. Then the winning percentage of these teams in these situations is found. This probability figure is then adjusted for home-field advantage. Thus win probability added is the difference between the win probability when the player came to bat and the win probability when the play ended.
Some people confuse win probability added with win shares,[ citation needed ] since both are baseball statistics that attempt to measure a player's win contribution. However, they are quite different. In win shares, a player with 0 win shares has contributed nothing to his team; in win probability added, a player with 0 win probability added points is average. Also, win shares would give the same amount of credit to a player if he hit a lead-off solo home run as if he hit a walk-off solo home run; WPA, however, would give vastly more credit to the player who hit the walk-off homer.
In Game 6 of the 2011 World Series, St. Louis Cardinals' third-baseman David Freese posted the best WPA in Major League Baseball postseason history, with a 0.969, which was 0.099 better than the now-second-best WPA of .870, posted by the Los Angeles Dodgers' Kirk Gibson in Game 1 of the 1988 World Series. The third- and fourth-best WPAs are .854 (by the San Diego Padres' Steve Garvey in Game 4 of the 1984 National League Championship Series) and 0.832 (by the Cardinals' Lance Berkman in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series). [3]
Ryan Wallace Zimmerman is an American former professional baseball infielder who spent his entire 17-year Major League Baseball (MLB) career with the Washington Nationals. Zimmerman graduated from Kellam High School in Virginia Beach, Virginia, and played college baseball at the University of Virginia. Nicknamed "Mr. National", he was selected in the first round as the fourth overall pick by the Nationals in the 2005 MLB draft and then played for the team from its 2005 inaugural season in Washington, D.C., through 2021. Known for his clutch hitting and walk-off hits, Zimmerman was primarily a third baseman before moving to first base in 2015. He was twice selected as an MLB All-Star, won one Gold Glove and two Silver Slugger awards, and was a World Series champion with the 2019 Nationals.
Matthew Thomas Holliday is an American former professional baseball left fielder. He played in Major League Baseball (MLB) from 2004 to 2018 for the Colorado Rockies, Oakland Athletics, St. Louis Cardinals, and New York Yankees. A World Series champion in 2011 with the Cardinals, Holliday played a key role in seven postseasons, including the Rockies' first-ever World Series appearance in 2007 and Cardinals' playoff success in the 2010s. His distinctions include a National League (NL) batting championship, the 2007 NL Championship Series Most Valuable Player Award, seven All-Star selections, and four Silver Slugger Awards. Other career accomplishments include 300 home runs, more than 2,000 hits, and batting over .300 eight times.
The St. Louis Cardinals 2004 season was the team's 123rd season in St. Louis, Missouri and the 113th season in the National League. The Cardinals went 105–57 during the season, the most wins of any Cardinals team since 1944, and the first Cardinal team to win 100 or more games since 1985, and won the National League Central by 13 games over the NL Wild-Card Champion Houston Astros. In the playoffs the Cardinals defeated the Los Angeles Dodgers 3 games to 1 in the NLDS and the Astros 4 games to 3 in the NLCS to reach their first World Series since 1987. In the World Series the Cardinals faced the Boston Red Sox and were swept 4 games to 0. It was the final World Series played at Busch Memorial Stadium. Because the American League had home-field advantage as a result of winning the All-Star Game, Busch Memorial Stadium was where the Curse of the Bambino died.
John Mozeliak is an American baseball executive who is the president of baseball operations of the St. Louis Cardinals of Major League Baseball (MLB). Never a professional baseball player, Mozeliak came to the Cardinals as Walt Jocketty's assistant in 1995 and became the organization's twelfth General Manager after the 2007 season.
The 1998 National League Wild Card tie-breaker game was a one-game extension to Major League Baseball's (MLB) 1998 regular season, played between the Chicago Cubs and San Francisco Giants to determine the winner of the National League (NL) wild card. The game took place at Wrigley Field in Chicago, on September 28, 1998. The Cubs won the game 5–3, holding the Giants scoreless for the majority of the game until the Giants threatened heavily in the ninth inning and scored all three runs. As a result of the game, the Cubs qualified for the postseason and the Giants did not.
David Richard Freese is an American former professional baseball third baseman. He began his Major League Baseball (MLB) career with the St. Louis Cardinals in 2009, where, two seasons later, he was a key player during the 2011 postseason, batting .545 with 12 hits in the 2011 National League Championship Series (NLCS). At the time, he also set an MLB postseason record of 21 runs batted in (RBIs), which earned him the NLCS MVP Award and World Series MVP Award. In addition, Freese won the Babe Ruth Award, naming him the MVP of the 2011 MLB postseason. He also played for the Los Angeles Angels, Pittsburgh Pirates, and Los Angeles Dodgers.
The 2011 World Series was the championship series of Major League Baseball's (MLB) 2011 season. The 107th edition of the World Series, it was a best-of-seven playoff played between the American League (AL) champion Texas Rangers and the National League (NL) champion St. Louis Cardinals; the Cardinals defeated the Rangers in seven games to win their 11th World Series championship and their second in six seasons.
The St. Louis Cardinals' 2011 season was the team's 130th season in St. Louis, Missouri, its 120th season in the National League, and its sixth season at Busch Stadium III. The Cardinals began their season at home against the San Diego Padres on March 31, following an 86–76 (.531) record and second-place finish in the National League Central in 2010. The team returned to postseason play in 2011 as the Wild Card team, after finishing second in the NL Central to the Milwaukee Brewers by six games. The Cardinals beat the Philadelphia Phillies in five games in the NLDS and the Milwaukee Brewers in six games in the NLCS. They defeated the Texas Rangers in the World Series in seven games.
The 2011 National League Championship Series was a best-of-seven playoff pitting the winners of the 2011 National League Division Series, the St. Louis Cardinals and Milwaukee Brewers, against each other for the National League championship and the right to be the league's representative in the 2011 World Series. The series was the 42nd NLCS in league history.
The 2011 National League Division Series were two best-of-five playoffs comprising the opening round of the Major League Baseball postseason, played to determine the participating teams in the 2011 National League Championship Series. Three divisional winners and a fourth team—a wild card—played in two series. TBS televised all games in the United States. The regular season finished on September 28, with the National League playoffs beginning October 1.
The 2013 World Series was the championship series of Major League Baseball's (MLB) 2013 season. The 109th edition of the World Series, it was a best-of-seven playoff between the American League (AL) champion Boston Red Sox and the National League (NL) champion St. Louis Cardinals; the Red Sox won, 4 games to 2 to win their eighth championship. The Red Sox had home field advantage for the series, based on the AL's win in the 2013 MLB All-Star Game on July 16. This was the first World Series since 1999 to feature both number one seeds from the AL and NL. The Series started on October 23, 2013, ending with Game 6 on October 30, 2013.
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The St. Louis Cardinals, a professional baseball franchise based in St. Louis, Missouri, compete in the National League (NL) of Major League Baseball (MLB). Brewing magnate Gussie Busch's 37-year-long ownership of the club ended with his death in 1989, and his brewery, Anheuser-Busch (AB) took over. In 1995, an investment group led by Drew Baur and William DeWitt, Jr., purchased the team and have owned the club since. Shortstop Ozzie Smith – nicknamed "The Wizard" – collected a staggering array of defensive records and awards while performing acrobatic spectacles such as somersaults and flips that mesmerized Cardinal and non-Cardinal fans alike. In 1998, Mark McGwire and the Chicago Cubs' Sammy Sosa collocated national attention with their chase of Roger Maris' single-season home run record of 61. In addition, McGwire also set numerous team home run records. For the 1990s, the Cardinals captured one division title and finished above .500 five times for a .488 winning percentage
The 2013 National League Division Series were two best-of-five-game series to determine the baseball teams to participate in the 2013 National League Championship Series. The three divisional winners and a fourth team — the winner of a one-game Wild Card playoff — played in two series. TBS carried most of the games, with some on MLB Network.
The 2013 National League Championship Series, the 44th NLCS, was a best-of-seven playoff pitting the St. Louis Cardinals against the Los Angeles Dodgers for Major League Baseball's National League pennant. The Cardinals beat the Dodgers in six games.
Yordan Ruben Álvarez is a Cuban professional baseball designated hitter and left fielder for the Houston Astros of Major League Baseball (MLB). He made his MLB debut in 2019 for the Astros. Nicknamed "Air Yordan", Álvarez stands 6 ft 5 in (1.96 m), weighs 225 pounds (102 kg), bats left-handed and throws right-handed.
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David Freese's 2011 World Series home run was a baseball play that occurred in Game 6 of the 2011 World Series on October 27, 2011, at Busch Stadium in St. Louis, Missouri. After the Texas Rangers had taken the lead in the ninth and tenth innings by two runs each, the St. Louis Cardinals rallied twice to keep the score tied. Jake Westbrook pitched a scoreless 11th inning to set up a walk-off home run by Freese off of Mark Lowe to tie the series and force Game 7, which the Cardinals won.
The 2011 Major League Baseball wild card chase was a playoff chase involving the Atlanta Braves and St. Louis Cardinals in the National League and the Boston Red Sox and Tampa Bay Rays in the American League.